I Suspect The Roster Is Almost Set

[JackBauer]

Indeed. I'd say there's about a 0% chance Wheatley gets cut.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Please post when in the last DECADE Belichick has cut a 2nd year 2nd or 3rd rounder.

Agreed. After only a year in the system, BB is not cutting Wheatley or Crable. Even Chad Jax got 2 and he was abysmal.

 

[bucky]

I'll take that bet. All three of Wheatley, Crable and OC struggled last night (Wheatley less so than the other two - he had good coverage most of the time just needs to be a split second quicker in recognition which hopefully comes with more reps/experience). However they are all young second year players...give them some time.

You're right. At the same time, Crable has not done a single thing to show that he will develop into anything. Wheatley has shown a little more, but not much. And neither of them has shown up on ST.

Bottom line - neither of these guys deserves to be on the 45 man active roster. Which means they're basically competing for the final 4 spots or so on the roster regardless of which position they play.

 

[bucky]

Please post when in the last DECADE Belichick has cut a 2nd year 2nd or 3rd rounder.

He hasn't. The closest would be Garrett Mills and Dexter Reid - who are 4th rounders. He also cut Brock Williams, Chad Jackson, and Gus Scott during their 3rd TC. Then there's the case of Kareem Brown - a 4th round pick who didn't even last 1 year.

So while you're right that there's no precedent for it, the same argument has been made about BB not drafting Guards, RBs, DLs, and LBs in the 1st round. There's a first time for everything. And I'm putting the chances of it happening this year at 50%.

 

[tobias funke]

I actually didn't mean to leave Galloway off. That was a mistake and IMO he'd probably get the spot I gave Nunn. I did debate it but I think he still has time to get on the same page with Brady, etc.

I don't see anything wrong with going into the season with 4 CBs and 5 safeties.

I'm not an OL expert so if you say Britt is more likely than Yates so be it. I'm not that solid there.

I also think that with 4 RBs guaranteed to make the roster, 3 with an injury history, and the extreme likelihood of BJGE not making it past the Chiefs on waivers, BB will probably want to go into the season with 5 again. Just a feeling.

And yes, suggesting Wheatley will be cut is a stretch, but that's the fun of making your own final 53. That's the roster I'd like to see based on the limited access I have to the team. Other people with better intelligence get to make the real decisions based on stuff we'll never know about.

 

[fester]

He hasn't. The closest would be Garrett Mills and Dexter Reid - who are 4th rounders. He also cut Brock Williams, Chad Jackson, and Gus Scott during their 3rd TC. Then there's the case of Kareem Brown - a 4th round pick who didn't even last 1 year.

So while you're right that there's no precedent for it, the same argument has been made about BB not drafting Guards, RBs, DLs, and LBs in the 1st round. There's a first time for everything. And I'm putting the chances of it happening this year at 50%.

I think it is unlikely for a couple of reasons.

1) Over the past couple of years, the way the Pats have structured their 2nd and 3rd round contracts, cutting a player in the second year leaves a fairly significant dead money hit.

2) The Pats attempt to be good for many years at all times --- being too impatient with a slower than expected but still real development process is a good way to be slightly better this year but significantly worse in years 3 and 4.

 

[captain stone]

So who did you have in mind to cut after their aweful performances? Wheatley? Kaczur? O'Callaghan who wasn't making the squad?

The last spots are being clarified not muddled.

MCGOWAN over TANK WILLIAMS
LEWIS and GALLOWAY ove NUNN

Due to injury/ineffectiveness, I believe that there are still spots undecided at RB, TE, OL, LB & S/ST.

McGowan over Tank: likely, but is he a lock for the 53?

Lewis & Galloway over Nunn: was that even in question?

 

[JackBauer]

I actually didn't mean to leave Galloway off. That was a mistake and IMO he'd probably get the spot I gave Nunn. I did debate it but I think he still has time to get on the same page with Brady, etc.

I don't see anything wrong with going into the season with 4 CBs and 5 safeties.

I'm not an OL expert so if you say Britt is more likely than Yates so be it. I'm not that solid there.

I also think that with 4 RBs guaranteed to make the roster, 3 with an injury history, and the extreme likelihood of BJGE not making it past the Chiefs on waivers, BB will probably want to go into the season with 5 again. Just a feeling.

And yes, suggesting Wheatley will be cut is a stretch, but that's the fun of making your own final 53. That's the roster I'd like to see based on the limited access I have to the team. Other people with better intelligence get to make the real decisions based on stuff we'll never know about.

So you're worried about the RB's injury history, but not someone like Shawn Springs, who hasn't been healthy since LBJ was president? Also considering the fact that our cornerbacks always seem to drop like flies, going with four CB's is playing with fire.

 

[WhiZa]

Indeed. I'd say there's about a 0% chance Wheatley gets cut.

The numbers back it up. If the Pats cut him they would lose 500k in cap space. Him and Maroney will be on the 53 in some form or fashion.

 

[WhiZa]

I'll take that bet. All three of Wheatley, Crable and OC struggled last night (Wheatley less so than the other two - he had good coverage most of the time just needs to be a split second quicker in recognition which hopefully comes with more reps/experience). However they are all young second year players...give them some time.

Keep in mind that Wheatly and Crable both have contracts that would cost more against the cap if cut so it's more cost effective to keep them on the roster.

 

[WhiZa]

So who did you have in mind to cut after their aweful performances? Wheatley? Kaczur? O'Callaghan who wasn't making the squad?

The last spots are being clarified not muddled.

MCGOWAN over TANK WILLIAMS
LEWIS and GALLOWAY ove NUNN

McGowan over Williams.
Nunn to PS. He looks good, but not good enough where some team would put him on the 53.

 

[PYPER]

OFFENSE (24)
QB Brady, O'Connell
RB Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris
WR Moss, Welker, Galloway, Edelman, Aiken, Lewis
TE Baker, Watson, Thomas
OL Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Orhnberger, Vollmer, Hochstein, O'Callghan/Britt

DEFENSE (23)
DL Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Brace, Wright, Pryor
DE/OLB Burgress, Banta-Cain
OLB Thomas, Woods, Crable
ILB Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi
CB Bodden, Wilhite, Springs, Butler, Wheatley
S Meriweather, Sanders, Chung

SPECIALISTS (3)
K Gostkowski
P Hanson
LS Ingram/Hodel

FINAL THREE (3)
To be determined (my personal choices as of now are McGowan, Walter and Lenon)

PUP
WR Tate
OT LeVoir

IR
LB McKenzie

It think you nailed 49/50 but Aiken could be vulnerable. I think he'll make it but I'd definitely list him amongst the bubble players.

My finalist for the final four roster spots consists of eight players. Aiken, Ninkovich, Ciurciu, McGowan, Lenon, Walter, BJGE, and Smith.

- It doesn't seem like Smith has done enough to warrant inclusion and 4 TE's is a luxury we can't afford. Cross him off and we're down to seven candidates.

- BB made a comment regarding the recent signing of that new RB (destined for our PS) that may be a bit revealing. He said our depth at RB isn't as great as it may appear. I don't think that statement is true if he's planning on keeping 5 RB's. But if he's leaning towards trying to put BJGE on the PS but also realizing that some team (Den, KC, etc...) would likely grab him, then we would, in fact, be a bit short on depth at RB. Therefore he brought in a RB that he feels he can store on the PS. All of this obviously means that BJGE is unlikely to be part of the final 53. If we cross him off and we're down to six candidates. Having said that, I wouldn't be shocked if BB tries to trade Maroney so he can keep BJGE. I just don't think Maroney has the vision or instincts to become what we all expected out of him and BJGE impresses every time he gets a chance.

- If O'Connell can step up and restore confidence in his ability to handle the #2, then I think BB would prefer to carry a player at another position. I'm going to go this route and remove Walter. Now I'm down to five candidates for the final four spots.

Aiken, Ninkovich, Ciurciu, McGowan, and Lenon.

I think McGowan and Lenon make it based on their ability to supply much needed depth to the base defense at their respective positions.

The final two spots will go to Sp. Teamers. IMO, Aiken, Ninkovich, and Ciurciu are battling for those final two spots.

I really like Aiken and BJGE but don't see how we can keep both of them. We need a SP Teams stud. In a perfect world, we'd be able to at least keep both on the PS but I'm sure Den or KC will grab them. I'd put Ciurciu as the favorite but it sounds like Ninkovich has looked good as well, plus he is a capable long snapper which is a nice insurance, especially if we end up going with the rookie at long snapper.

 

[JackBauer]

BB is going to trade Maroney so we can keep a JAG RB in BJGE?

Oy.

<facepalm>

 

[PYPER]

BB is going to trade Maroney so we can keep a JAG RB in BJGE?

Oy.

<facepalm>

Forget what you know about draft status. Use your eyeballs. If you knew nothing about either player and simply based your judgment on what you actually see, who looks more impressive?

...and as far as JAG's are concerned, that same label can be applied to Sammy Morris and he's easily been our best RB the last two seasons and is definitely ahead of Maroney on the depth chart.

...on a side note, where would this franchise be if we evaluated all our players by their draft status and viewed all late round picks as lowly JAGS? Remember, it was the eyeball test that led BB to keep that 6th round "JAG" QB back in 2000. And it was the eyeball test that led to that same QB rising up the depth chart in 2001 to become 2nd string and then, ultimatley, one of the league's true immortal players. I'm not saying BJGE is going to become the next Jim Brown but at this point I'm willing to give him a shot. I think his style is better suited to our offense.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm not saying BJGE is going to become the next Jim Brown but at this point he's a far more effective RB than Maroney ever has been.

You are way off-base. We all can agree that LoMo has had his fits and starts but his production at the NFL level both reg & post-season blows BJGE out of the water.

Now, if you want to compare BJGE to Patrick Cobbs, I would agree.

 

[JackBauer]

Forget what you know about draft status. Use your eyeballs. If you knew nothing about either player and simply based your judgment on what you actually see, who looks more impressive?

Tough to tell. As the play breakdown proves, the run blocking simply isn't there. And BJGE runs against scrubs, so it doesn't mean all that much. Scrub RB's usually look good in those situations.

...and as far as JAG's are concerned, that same label can be applied to Sammy Morris and he's easily been our best RB the last two seasons and is definitely ahead of Maroney on the depth chart.

Huh? Did you watch the 2007 season? Do you have access to the Patriots' depth chart that the rest of us don't?

I'm not saying BJGE is going to become the next Jim Brown but at this point he's a far more effective RB than Maroney ever has been.

I suppose if you completely ignore context... nope, this is patently risible no matter how you look at it.

 

[PYPER]

Tough to tell. As the play breakdown proves, the run blocking simply isn't there. And BJGE runs against scrubs, so it doesn't mean all that much. Scrub RB's usually look good in those situations.

We saw BJGE play last season. He had a couple of starts. He runs forward and is decisive. I've been part of the "let's make excuses and blame the Oline" Maroney defense team in the past but at some point you just got to cut your losses. Maroney is what he is. A gifted athlete with excellent open field running skills. But he lacks the most important assets an NFL RB needs to be successful. Vision and instincts. The guy couldn't find a hole in a Las Vegas brothel.

Huh? Did you watch the 2007 season? Do you have access to the Patriots' depth chart that the rest of us don't?

Do you remember Morris' three (or was it 4) consecutive games of over 100 yards before he got injured? When SM plays, the running game is effective. When LM plays, everyone questions the Oline. And yes, I remember Maroney's late season surge but even when he's doing well, he's not as good as Morris. Having said all that, Morris is getting up there in age, as is Taylor, so it is important to keep a younger body on the roster. If we could keep BJGE and Maroney...Great! Especially b/c I think Maroney offers a lot as a ko returner. But if I've got to pick between the two, I don't think its unreasonable to consider BJGE as the better prospect. He certainly doesn't have Maroney's talent, but his running style is much more consistent and reliable and that's what we need out of our RB's.

 

[PYPER]

You are way off-base. We all can agree that LoMo has had his fits and starts but his production at the NFL level both reg & post-season blows BJGE out of the water.

Now, if you want to compare BJGE to Patrick Cobbs, I would agree.

Yes, of course you are correct regarding the production of the two players. That's not what I meant to imply. I was referring to their styles. BJGE consistently hits the holes hard and gets whatever is there. He's much more reliable and consistent at picking up those 3-5 yards. Maroney gets stuffed for no gain or even short losses far too often. When I watch him run, I think our Oline must be terrible. Then the other guys come in and suddenly the running game not only looks competent, it looks dangerous.

Again, I'm not saying that we will or even should keep BJGE over Maroney, I'm just saying it's not an unrealistic possibility, especially if BB can get a decent offer for him (like a 3rd rounder or better). Although, in truth I'm still kind of hoping we keep them both (Maroney and BJGE) although I recognize that is very unlikely. Believe me, I would like nothing more than to see Maroney finally realize his potential but I'm just not convinced it's going to happen.

 

[JackBauer]

We saw BJGE play last season. He had a couple of starts. He runs forward and is decisive. I've been part of the "let's make excuses and blame the Oline" Maroney defense team in the past but at some point you just got to cut your losses. Maroney is what he is. A gifted athlete with excellent open field running skills. But he lacks the most important assets an NFL RB needs to be successful. Vision and instincts. The guy couldn't find a hole in a Las Vegas brothel.

He "runs forward and is decisive" to the tune of a whopping 3.7 YPC. This is clearly an improvement on LM's 4.3 YPC, as Maroney simply "dances too much" and "lacks vision and instincts."

Again, I have to question how you could possibly make these types of assessments.

Exactly how much vision and instincts does one need to avoid one or two defenders consistently in the backfield on what seems like every play?

Do you remember Morris' three (or was it 4) consecutive games of over 100 yards before he got injured? When SM plays, the running game is effective. When LM plays, everyone questions the Oline. And yes, I remember Maroney's late season surge but even when he's doing well, he's not as good as Morris. Having said all that, Morris is getting up there in age, as is Taylor, so it is important to keep a younger body on the roster. If we could keep BJGE and Maroney...Great! Especially b/c I think Maroney offers a lot as a ko returner. But if I've got to pick between the two, I don't think its unreasonable to consider BJGE as the better prospect. He certainly doesn't have Maroney's talent, but his running style is much more consistent and reliable and that's what we need out of our RB's.

It is absolutely unreasonable. BJGE hasn't proven that he's anything more than a Mike Cloud type of RB. Maroney has shown that, when healthy, he can be the team's #1 back (though he'll likely never be a franchise back). It's amazing to me that you could consider someone with much worse production to be "more consistent and reliable."

 

[JackBauer]

Yes, of course you are correct regarding the production of the two players. That's not what I meant to imply. I was referring to their styles. BJGE consistently hits the holes hard and gets whatever is there. He's much more reliable and consistent at picking up those 3-5 yards. Maroney gets stuffed for no gain or even short losses far too often. When I watch him run, I think our Oline must be terrible. Then the other guys come in and suddenly the running game not only looks competent, it looks dangerous.

I don't know what else to say besides this is absolutely not true.