I can't decide whether this defense is good or bad

[PatsFanSince74]

When I watch the Pats play, I don't get the feeling that their D is capable of really stopping people. Seems like they give up too many 3rd down conversions, they don't really get after the QB, etc. I know many of you here share that sense.

But then I look at the numbers. Here are some relevant stats:

- #6 in the league in total yards allowed per game (262.3)
- #7 in the league in passing yards allowed per game (174.0)
- #10 in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (88.3)
- #7 in the league in points allowed per game (16.7) - but that number is really even less, since 7 of them came on an interception return by Buffalo, and really was on the offense. So their D is giving up 15.3 ppg. Pretty stellar, actually.
- #7 in the league in 3rd down conversions allowed (30.0%) - I was surprised at this number.

I mean, that's pretty good, right? Essentially a top 7 defense, according to those numbers.

But then there are some bad stats, too:
- #25 in the league in QB rating allowed (98.4)
- #23 in the league in passing yds/att (7.7)
- #20 in the league in sacks (6)
- #16 in the league in rushing yds/att (4.0)

So what do you think? Is this a good defense or a not-so-good defense? I think the conclusion I'm coming to is that there is the potential here for a top 7 defense, and at times, they show it. But (despite media reports to the contrary) this is a young group missing some key players (now Wilfork is injured), and when they come together, they could be very tough.

This week's game against a very good offense (Baltimore) will be a real test, but I love the 10 points allowed to the Falcons.

thanks for assembling that data. much appreciated.

When you consider that 2/3 of the play was without the newly anointed "leader" of the D in Mayo, that much of one game was without Wilfork, that it lost four of the guys who anchored it in the offseason (one the week before Game One) and that there are several important new pieces...when you consider those things and look at what the D has done (50 points surrendered in three games, of which just about half came in Week One), I think that "top seven" will be conservative when the entire unit is humming in November.

 

[ivanvamp]

GREAT thread and kudos to the OP.

Why, thank you.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

This thread is why I read this site. Good homework and analysis showing both sides of the issue without a blatant agenda with the poster omitting contrary data to make a biased point. I appreciate this kind of perspective, regardless of the viewpoint of the writer.

The passing yds/attempt negatives made me question my growing enthusiasiam for this burgeoning D but I think that as the weeks progress we'll see improvement in these metrics. It's all about points allowed since this so far under achieving offense should be averaging in the high twenties.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Thanks for the research.

It's hard to tell right now based on just 3 games. Also the offense has held a major TOP advantage in 2 of the games. So very tough to draw any solid conclusions right now. But I would say that for a defense playing without one of it's best players and as many new starters as there are, it's been fine. Alot to be encouraged about.

My only concern right now is Burgess. We gave up a 3rd rounder for him and I have barely even seen him on the field.

 

[SVN]

i actually thought the pass rush was decent at times yesterday even without sacks. real test comes next week with michael oher and the ravens o line.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

It "seems" like the defense is bad because the "pundits" are telling you that the Pats defense is old and slow. There is also the hangover from 2006/7.

Also, I would point out that even "great" defenses will give up some yards/first downs/points. What matters is quantity. Fans have to realize that defenses don't pitch negative yardage shutout after shutout.

A defense that gives up 20 minutes TOP/253 yards/10 Points played well. Unfortunately, this board fixates on interceptions and sacks.

I'm right behind you on this one. The defense isn't flashy right now, but they can make a few big plays. They've had fumbles forced and recovered instead of INT's so far.

I thought one of the biggest aspects to the win over the Falcons was the very solid tackling. Turner's longest run was for 7 yards! The Falcons WR played okay, but I'd still estimate that they had very few YAC, which helped keep their 10-20 yard receptions from becoming 40+ yard ones that really are hard to bounce back from and force a stop. The longest catch of the day for the Falcons was 26 yards.

 

[BionicPatriot]

Thanks for the research.

It's hard to tell right now based on just 3 games. Also the offense has held a major TOP advantage in 2 of the games. So very tough to draw any solid conclusions right now. But I would say that for a defense playing without one of it's best players and as many new starters as there are, it's been fine. Alot to be encouraged about.

My only concern right now is Burgess. We gave up a 3rd rounder for him and I have barely even seen him on the field.

This is what non one is talking about, so lets talk about it.

Is the offense built to help out the D? Consider they have a stable of RBs to chew the clock, and every game now TOP has been pretty lopsided. Does out offense protect our defense? I think so, to a certain degree. Do I like this defense? Yeah, it's an improvement from last years. But I see no play maker. Nobody is causing negative plays, mistakes, etc.

How elite are they if they can't do this for 3 games? Yes I like the defense, but bend but don't break doesn't work against the best. Yes Atlanta is good. But no, Ryan is not 1/4 of the way to where Manning/Rivers/Brees/Brady are. He's good, but becoming a tad overrated. People talked all week like the Pats had to stop the 04 Colts, not so. Yes it's a better offense than most. But it still has some growing to do.

I guess I'm saying if we had the Colts or Saints this week I'd be worried. I don't think bend but don't break wins championships or beats good offensive teams. I want to see this defense get after the QB more and make some plays. Holding the offense down for 3 games shows improvement over last season, but hardly dominance. I think so far a large part of the defense's success has actually been the OC's ability to play ball control very well. What happens when TOP isn't in our favor?

 

[BionicPatriot]

Where is D. burgess? Did we bring this guy in to paint pictures or play football? I've seen him do nothing on the field, and we just gave up a 3rd for him. He's really letting me down.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

I have no doubt the defense is "good". Is it "great"? We'll see. The key ingredients are there: Man-coverage CBs. With only 5 eligible receivers, having 2 CBs who can be solely allocated to removing 2 of the 5 makes the options for the rest of the D much greater. This was what made the 2003 D so great: Poole (outstanding regular season, crappy post-season) and Law could be counted on locking down the FL and SE, allowing the rest of the D to focus on the remaining ball-eligible players. I suspect as the season continues on, the front-7 will get better at finding a pass-rush and with Mayo's return later in the year. By the time December rolls around, this D very well might be playing great football and will have the CBs primarily to thank.

With the loaded Falcons offense, the Big 3 to stop are Turner, Gonzalez and White. The Pats did this. The Falcons did an ok job of taking what the Pats gave them with the decent game WR #12 (Jenkins?) had, but it's hard to "take what the defense gives you" consistently against a BB D.

Regards,
Chris

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Where is D. burgess? Did we bring this guy in to paint pictures or play football? I've seen him do nothing on the field, and we just gave up a 3rd for him. He's really letting me down.

I'm not an expert - but it looks to me that he doesn't shed blocks very easily. This may be him playing gap control and doing his job, or perhaps it's him not being able to pass rush well.

 

[JSn]

Where is D. burgess? Did we bring this guy in to paint pictures or play football? I've seen him do nothing on the field, and we just gave up a 3rd for him. He's really letting me down.

Great thread and good analysis.

I think we'll see the pass rush (and relatedly, D. Burgess) in games where we get up early. In close games, I don't think players are encouraged to make high risk plays (jumping routes for Int's is sometimes just good guesswork) and there's nothing worse than seeing a big defender flying by the QB while the RB is already past the LOS.

I'm not worried about Burgess, I think he'll show up soon. The D is playing with a lot of new and moving parts and is playing solid situational football with adjustments for each opponent every week.

 

[borg]

Too early to tell. Consider the three teams the Pats have played. None are considered offensive juggernauts. Jets have averaged 21 points per game on offense, Buffalo 20 (Really 18) points and Atlanta 19 points. Atlanta came in to Sunday with a 2-0 record, but those two wins were verses teams that have a combined 0-5 record.

Sure, holding these teams below their average is very positive, but better tests for this D are coming. Looking forward, Baltimore definitely....Denver, unlikely...Tenn, who knows...Tampa, not...Miami, not....Colts, oh yeah. Funny how the strength of schedule seems to have changed dramatically considering the poor play of Miami, Tenn, Carolina, Houston, Jacksonville.

 

[Snarf]

<< Re: I can't decide whether this defense is good or bad >>

Maybe they're neither.

Seems to me like they're pretty average right now.

 

[bostonia3333]

Belichick is doing a great job this year of hiding the defensive inadequacies by letting Brady chew up the clock. I love this style of football--and I think we need to continue to run more and more--that's the only way we can win a Super Bowl. I hope we won't see Brady throw for 40 times again this year--because the clock won't move as much and that means more exposure for a passive defense.

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

This whole team looks good.

Defense so far held together with serious injury bug.

Offense coming along despite serious injury bug.

The defense is young but seems to have a good backfield and only the pass rush is a major concern at this point. The turnovers come from putting pressure on the QB, and that is not happening.

 

[patsfan-1982]

6 new starter's on D

a big injury to there best LB and they where not deep at LB to start with


and the O was not helping the D out much in the first 2 games by not runing the ball and going 3 and out a lot

so for the team to be 2-1 and 2-0 at home and the D to be #7 in the NFL ill take it

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Although they still have a hard time getting after the QB, they're playing a lot better than I expected. One of the only stats that I care about is the 3rd down percentage. As of right now, their at 30 percent (7th in the league) as opposed to 44 percent after 16 games in 2008. In addition, points per game has been 17, 19 and 10.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

This is what non one is talking about, so lets talk about it.

Is the offense built to help out the D? Consider they have a stable of RBs to chew the clock, and every game now TOP has been pretty lopsided. Does out offense protect our defense? I think so, to a certain degree. Do I like this defense? Yeah, it's an improvement from last years. But I see no play maker. Nobody is causing negative plays, mistakes, etc.

Good point, the consensus at the beginning of the year was the offense would carry the defense at the start of the season til the D gelled. Well, they're doing that by eating clock and not exposing the D. Now we have to give credit to the D for getting the ball back to the offense and not allowing many points.
By Nov-Dec they should be gellinjg nicely and hopefully healthy and we should see what we have going into the playoffs.

 

[slash83]

Although they still have a hard time getting after the QB, they're playing a lot better than I expected. One of the only stats that I care about is the 3rd down percentage. As of right now, their at 30 percent (7th in the league) as opposed to 44 percent after 16 games in 2008. In addition, points per game has gone down from 24 to 19 to 10.

I know it doesn't go down this way on the stat sheets but the defense only gave up 17 to buffalo.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

I know it doesn't go down this way on the stat sheets but the defense only gave up 17 to buffalo.

That's right, my mistake. I just made a correction in my post.