Hypothetical: Who Is Worth a 2nd round Trade Up?

[mayoclinic]

Assume for the purposes of this argument that the Pats do not trade up in the 1st round, and that they take either an OL or a DL of your choice. If you were to trade up in the 2nd round, which of the following prospects would you prefer, and why?

 

[mayoclinic]

My take:

- I would trade up for Erving or Sambrailo if we took DL in the 1st.
- I would trade up for Brown or Hunter if we took OL in the 1st.
- I would strongly consider Maxx Williams if I thought he was the BPA. I'd have a hard time justifying him over an OL or DL though, unless I felt he had a much higher grade than anyone available. Right now I'm not sure I'd grade him higher than Erving, Sambrailo, Brown or Hunter.
- I would consider Coleman or Armstead with our 2nd round pick, but probably wouldn't trade up for them.
- I definitely wouldn't trade up for a WR.

 

[manxman2601]

The only ones I wouldn't trade up for, at this moment, are Sambrailo, Armsted and Hunter. But don't worry, the only reason I've included Armstead and Hunter there is that I haven't seen them yet.

Cameron Erving - Really impressed with him as a run blocker in limited viewing. He's second only to Collins/Scherff as my favourite interior lineman right now and seems a great fit for a LG role (I see Clemmings as a OT for now).

Malcolm Brown - Toss up between him and Goldman for best DT.

Tevin Coleman - Toss up between him and Gurley for best RB. Value isn't so great with the depth but I really like him so if I was GM, I'd probably not do the trade up, but if BB does i'll be very pleased.

Maxx Williams - Potential to be a really good offensive threat in our offense. Takes some of the burden off Gronk.

Sammie Coates - a risk for sure and not necessarily a particularly good WR at the moment but he's a rare athlete.

The only one I'm not convinced by is Sambrailo, particularly with some of the OT depth. But for a third rounder, when we've already got a third and an early fourth, damn right i'd trade up for some of this talent. I wouldn't be disappointed if we took those guys in the first.

 

[mayoclinic]

Tevin Coleman - Toss up between him and Gurley for best RB. Value isn't so great with the depth but I really like him so if I was GM, I'd probably not do the trade up, but if BB does i'll be very pleased.

That's sort of my take on Tevin Coleman. I think he's the best RB fit for the Pats that I've seen in years (Doug Martin was probably the last RB who I liked that much), and a 1st round talent. His ability as a runner and receiver would add a tremendous dimension to this offense. I can't prioritize RB over OL/DE and I value top TEs more than top RBs, but I wouldn't be upset if it happened.

 

[mayoclinic]

I wouldn't be disappointed if we took those guys in the first.

Another way of looking at it is that the Pats could potentially come away with 2 guys on this list by trading back in the 1st and up in the 2nd. You've mentioned elsewhere that Cam Erving-Maxx Williams wouldn't be a bad way to go. I'd agree, and would also consider Erving-Hunter, Erving-Brown, Brown-Sambrailo, Brown-Williams (and possibly Erving-Coleman or Brown-Coleman, though I'm not sold on trading up for a RB) as pretty solid starts to a draft.

 

[manxman2601]

That's sort of my take on Tevin Coleman. I think he's the best RB fit for the Pats that I've seen in years (Doug Martin was probably the last RB who I liked that much), and a 1st round talent. His ability as a runner and receiver would add a tremendous dimension to this offense. I can't prioritize RB over OL/DE and I value top TEs more than top RBs, but I wouldn't be upset if it happened.

The one thing that gives me pause on Coleman is TJ Yeldon. He doesn't excite me but when I watch him, I think A)BB will really like him and B) I can't think of a reason not to draft him. I can easily see him being the pick at 62.

 

[manxman2601]

Another way of looking at it is that the Pats could potentially come away with 2 guys on this list by trading back in the 1st and up in the 2nd. You've mentioned elsewhere that Cam Erving-Maxx Williams wouldn't be a bad way to go. I'd agree, and would also consider Erving-Hunter, Erving-Brown, Brown-Sambrailo, Brown-Williams (and possibly Erving-Coleman or Brown-Coleman, though I'm not sold on trading up for a RB) as pretty solid starts to a draft.

It's sitting to be my preferred option. I know Goldman would probably prevent you from doing that, but for me it's Clemmings and maybe La'el Collins. As for Des, I'm not sure whether Dupree stops me from trading back, but if Dante Fowler was in reach, I'd rather go up for him...although this depends a lot on Ayers re-signing or not. I just think BB will want Fowler if he's there or thereabouts in the first.

Put it this way:

1. Maxx Williams
2. Cameron Erving

and one or more of Odhigizuwa, Hodges, Corey Crawford, Hardison, Mario Edwards in the 3rd/top of 4th would suit me just fine.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's sitting to be my preferred option. I know Goldman would probably prevent you from doing that, but for me it's Clemmings and maybe La'el Collins. As for Des, I'm not sure whether Dupree stops me from trading back, but if Dante Fowler was in reach, I'd rather go up for him...although this depends a lot on Ayers re-signing or not. I just think BB will want Fowler if he's there or thereabouts in the first.

Put it this way:

1. Maxx Williams
2. Cameron Erving

and one or more of Odhigizuwa, Hodges, Corey Crawford, Hardison, Mario Edwards in the 3rd/top of 4th would suit me just fine.

I think we're in rough agreement, though it's still pretty early, and there's plenty of time for things to change. As things currently stand, I don't have 1-2 guys who I'm "all in" on as much as a long list of guys who I'd be happy with. I'd trade up for Goldman and Clemmings without hesitation for a reasonable price (our 3rd or TB's 4th). Collins, Brandon Scherff, Fowler and Dupree would all merit serious trade up consideration as well, but none is a no-brainer. I'd include Bernardrick McKinney in my list of guys because I think he has the versatility to play insider or outside at LB and to be an effective sub rusher, but I wouldn't trade up for him and think he'll be gone. Otherwise we're into the list in this poll, hopefully with a slight trade back in the 1st and a trade up in the 2nd.

The guys on my preliminary list that you haven't mentioned for the 3rd/top of the 4th range would include include Jake Fisher, Jeremiah Poutasi, Jarvis Harrison, Noah Spence, Quinten Rollins and Jaquiski Tartt. Fisher and possibly Poutasi (haven't seen enough of him yet) might be options in the late 2nd or early 3rd. From the late 4th it's just a question of finding good values, though every scenario for me includes DeAndre Smelter somewhere in that group.

 

[manxman2601]

I think we're in rough agreement, though it's still pretty early, and there's plenty of time for things to change. As things currently stand, I don't have 1-2 guys who I'm "all in" on as much as a long list of guys who I'd be happy with. I'd trade up for Goldman and Clemmings without hesitation for a reasonable price (our 3rd or TB's 4th). Collins, Brandon Scherff, Fowler and Dupree would all merit serious trade up consideration as well, but none is a no-brainer. I'd include Bernardrick McKinney in my list of guys because I think he has the versatility to play insider or outside at LB and to be an effective sub rusher, but I wouldn't trade up for him and think he'll be gone. Otherwise we're into the list in this poll, hopefully with a slight trade back in the 1st and a trade up in the 2nd.

The guys on my preliminary list that you haven't mentioned for the 3rd/top of the 4th range would include include Jake Fisher, Jeremiah Poutasi, Jarvis Harrison, Noah Spence, Quinten Rollins and Jaquiski Tartt. Fisher and possibly Poutasi (haven't seen enough of him yet) might be options in the late 2nd or early 3rd. From the late 4th it's just a question of finding good values, though every scenario for me includes DeAndre Smelter somewhere in that group.

Well look, come draft day we could be very worried about FS and CB and even LT. This is one of the biggest FA periods for the Patriots in a long while. so many questions that any speculation at this time is fairly meaningless. That's why i'm starting to focus on just looking at prospects rather than trying to predict anything. For now, I have Clemmings, Scherff, Fowler as the guys I want above others with La'el Collins, Goldman and Dupree being prospects I'm slightly less sure on than those three. And then it's mainly the guys you mentioned in your poll. But, this time a couple of years ago, Chandler Jones was a third rounder. So much will change between now and the end of April.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is one of the biggest FA periods for the Patriots in a long while. so many questions that any speculation at this time is fairly meaningless.

I agree to some extent. However, everything that we do is speculative. So personally I make some assumptions, evaluate prospects, and try to get a tentative feel for how things might project, with the caveat that it is all subject to change, and then I re-evaluate frequently. I usually do a 1st pass after the junior declarations are complete, a 2nd pass after the bowl games and Combine, and a then pass after FA and Pro Days. From then on it's just tinkering. But it's all speculative, so why not speculate? It's just for fun and our own education.

 

[mayoclinic]

BTW, the above discussion hasn't included Shawn Oakman. I'm still intrigued by him. However, (1) he fits better in base than in sub, (2) he's raw and has some risk, and after the Easley pick last year (which I still think will turn out great) I'd probably go a bit safer in the 1st round, and (3) I think there's a good chance he goes top 20 based on his upside. So I did;t include him, but would start to think about him if he's on the board at the beginning of the in the 2nd round. I think Danielle Hunter has more versatility to fit in both base and sub, so I included Hunter instead.

 

[Gabriel_p94]

Idk if I'm as sold on Eddie Goldman as some of you are. From what the scouts say is he has the size and burst to make a difference in games but doesn't. I'm not sure how I feel about taking a player like that v

 

[manxman2601]

I agree to some extent. However, everything that we do is speculative. So personally I make some assumptions, evaluate prospects, and try to get a tentative feel for how things might project, with the caveat that it is all subject to change, and then I re-evaluate frequently. I usually do a 1st pass after the junior declarations are complete, a 2nd pass after the bowl games and Combine, and a then pass after FA and Pro Days. From then on it's just tinkering. But it's all speculative, so why not speculate? It's just for fun and our own education.

I have no problem with people speculating and agree it's constructive. But for me personally, I wish there was a little more discussion about prospects than there is. But like I said, that's a personal thing.

 

[Luxusdk]

added "other" for Todd Gurley, i know some beleaves Patriots can get a RB in round 3 or 4. But I still beleave Gurley is a quality RB Patriots normaly wont have a chance to draft.

 

[meatface]

When was the last time BB did a trade up in the second or third?

 

[Luxusdk]

When was the last time BB did a trade up in the second or third?

2010 for Gronk?

 

[mayoclinic]

When was the last time BB did a trade up in the second or third?

It's a "hypothetical". But, for the record:

- Trade ups in the 1st round: 2002 (1st and 3rd for Dan Graham), 2003 (1st and 6th for Ty Warren), 2012 (1st and 3rd for Chandler Jones), 2012 (1st and 4th for Dont'a Hightower)

- Trade ups in the 2nd round: 2001 (2nd and 6th for Matt Light), 2003 (2nd and a 3rd for a 4th for Eugene Wilson), 2003 (2nd and 4th for Bethel Johnson), 2006 (2nd and 3rd for Chad Jackson), 2009 (2nd, 4th and 6th for Ron Brace), 2010 (2nd and 6th for Rob Gronkowski).

- I can't think of any trade ups in the 3rd round off the top of my head.

 

[OhExaulted1]

I went with other. Amendola is gone by all accounts. Julien is going to be 29. Chung, who is FA after this, will not be fielding KO's in 2015. Blount, although signed, will not be fielding KO's in 2015. Julien probably has another 2 years fielding punts, but I can't see him continuing making 100 catches a year, fielding 40 punts and everything is fine.

I actually think Bill makes a big pitch for Danny to take a pay cut, stick around as a ST's specialist and contribute occasionally on offense. If Amendola was a draft pick instead of a FA signing we would love the guy. People forget we gave up a 2nd and a 7th plus a big contract to get Wes.

My point is we need a return guy. To me we need to find one in this draft. BB understands how big ST's are. There is no greater gain/loss in terms of field position then on the punting/kicking units. In last years draft we got exactly nobody who is a major ST contributer. Fact.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts

Click on team (NE), week (ALL), position (ALL). Then hit ST snaps.

 

[JerseyShore99]

Second round trade-up? Gurley and that's about it off hand

 

[Gronkandez]

Second round trade-up? Gurley and that's about it off hand

I've watched a ton of UGA football the past two years. What I see in Gurley is a very tall/big guy with tremendous break away speed. That is the good. The bad is that since he is such a big target he is always getting banged up. I also think he tends to dance behind the line. He's more of a home run hitter than a positive yards type so I don't think he would be a great fit in NE.

On the other hand I absolutely love Nick Chubb. He looks exactly like Ray Rice (same build, running style and even same number). The guy always makes people miss and always gets positive yards. The only unknown with him is how effective he could be in the passing game since he hasn't done it much. Of course he isn't coming out this year since he's a freshman.