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How will the Pats trade a top 3 pick?

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by NEfan32, Nov 24, 2007.

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  1. NEfan32

    NEfan32 Rookie

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    I want to know. Seriously someone tell me.

    First off, teams give up a LOT to move in the top 10, more the top 5, but the top 3. The Giants gave up the #4 pick, and some other picks plus another 1st rounder to move up to grab Manning. And that was weird situation.

    The Chargers traded the #3 pick, a 2nd rounder PLUS 3 other players to move up ONE SLOT to select Ryan Leaf.

    So if a team without a top 5 pick wants the number 2 pick, how will they do that. Look, even if Dallas gives you 2 first rounders, that isn't enough. A 31st overall plus a likely 23rd or so pick for the number 2? No way.

    Look, you can say they will trade it, but I don't get how. It will be nearly impossible unless some team gives you a pro-bowler plus 2-3 1st round picks. It is a LOT easier said than done. Even if the Patsies want to trade the pick, they might not be able to. They aren't going to settle for 50 cents on the dollar.
  2. mcbee

    mcbee Banned

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    How to trade it. Let's see...let's assume the Pats think the #2 pick is death. It is too expensive, possible bust, franchise cancer, they don't want to risk it.

    They find (hopefully) some teams who want McFadden or Dorsey and start the bidding. They take the highest offer.

    If the highest offer isn't "enough" according to the trade chart, they take it anyway.

    "But it's not enough"! Well it may not be as good as what the Chargers got for what's his Manning...but it doesn't really matter. If the Pats WANT to trade the pick and the offer is "50 cents on the dollar" or NOTHING, they'll take 50 cents on the dollar. That is if they really don't want the pick.
  3. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa Rookie

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    Excellent point. We won't be able to hold someone up. We just want to move down and save some money and get an extra pick. I think we'll end up trading down. And, settling for their 1st and 2nd round picks this year. . I think a team picking 9-15 might want to move up and get a qb like Matt Ryan. Someone like Carolina or Minnesota. They can then say they got their guy. The Pats will be able to save money. And, keep "our guys." We end up with an extra pick. We still have a very high 1st rounder. Just speculating but we can get our cb. And, still have two first and two seconds.
  4. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If they want to trade it they will. Trading down is like selling your house - what your neighbor got is a good starting point but if no-one will pay it you either don't sell or you sell for what you can get. If Belichick has proven one thing it's that he'll trade whether people like the deal or not. Otherwise he wouldn't have traded a #3 last year for a #3 this year; nor would he have traded a #1 last year for a #4 last year and #1 this year. Both deals looked bad compared to other deals. How will Belichick trade it ? By agreeing to what he thinks is a good deal, whether you or I think it's a good deal or not.
  5. harveyw

    harveyw Rookie

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    Ha ha aha aha aha...I would love to know what profession you work in....to accept 0.50 on the dollar, you would be a complete clown and there is no way a savvy organization would do that. You should ask a MOd to delete your post.
  6. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    This is easily the worst post of this thread. Congrats for earning that dubious honor.
    BB is savvy. He won't get ripped off and sell for 50 cents on the dollar.
    I think he'd rather draft the sure fire stud if he doesn't get a tempting enough offer to get him to move down.

    The #2 overall pick would be a really valuable commodity, it's not something to be wasted away because it comes along rarely to most franchises.
    You seem to forget that there is no such thing as "OR NOTHING", if you don't like the offer you get you can always draft the best player available with that #2 pick.
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2007
  7. mcbee

    mcbee Banned

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    There is no established value of "50 cents on the dollar" for a pick. There is a "chart" but that doesn't mean it's gospel. You're so stupid you cling to the chart because you figure "someone made a chart...it must be right, right?"

    There is no "50 cents on the dollar". It's whatever the market will bear.

    I'd love to see if you even graduated high school. It's a simple concept. If he likes the offer more than the #2 pick, he sells it for that price. You don't take the lesser of the values because some idiot somewhere (you) has decided it's "50 cents on the dollar". What people have traded for in the past is IRRELEVENT. What matters is the offer you have vs. the pick you have. You take whatever is better.

    It's actually simple economics. And BB majored in economics.
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2007
  8. mcbee

    mcbee Banned

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    How obtuse can you be?

    It's simple logic that if they WANT to trade the pick, they're not going to let what YOU or ANYONE else says the pick is WORTH dictate that. Can we agree on that? BB isn't going to consult a message board or some artificial system that says what the pick is "worth". There is only one market for trading picks, and that's with other teams. He can't sell the pick to the NFL for "100 cents on the dollar". Do you get that?

    I did not forget that there's "or nothing". Or nothing means that they keep the pick. Maybe they will. Maybe they'll dump it if they don't see a player worth 8M per year, and of course they'll consider the value they get. But they're not going to consult YOU or some stupid system that Jimmy Johnson made up to determine what it SHOULD be worth.

    I can see BB: "Gee, this #2 pick sucks. 8M for this guy? NO way, this is crazy. What can we get for this pick? A mid first and first next year? Well...to be honest, with cap implications and such, I'd much rather have that mid first round and next year's first....but wait! I can't! According to some chart it's '50 cents on the dollar'. The message board guys would kill us!". Are you really that stupid?

    You take what the market gives you, or you don't trade. BB would have to be a fool to pass up what he THINKS is a better offer, because some clown somewhere thinks it's '50 cents on the dollar'.

    THERE IS NO OBJECTIVE VALUE OF PICKS. IT'S AN ESTIMATE. HOW STUPID CAN YOU BE?

    #2 pick is a "rare commodity"? OF COURSE IT IS. I DIDN'T SAY OTHERWISE. They will consider what they can get for that "rare commodity" in terms of player AND contract vs. what picks they can get.
    They will choose the better deal. Even if a f*cking idiot on a message board thinks it's 50 cents on the dollar.
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2007
  9. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    :mad:

    OK--let me explain this again: a true Pats fan does not, I repeat DOES NOT call the Patriots the "Patsies."
  10. The Shoe

    The Shoe Rookie

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    I think what you're looking at is explained as "addition by subtraction", although not in the common sense.

    First, take a look at who needs a quarterback.

    Miami- who despite the first overall may be looking to slide back a bit
    Atlanta- yeah, not much here
    Minnesota- Duante who?
    Baltimore- McNair is showing age after a great career, Boller never got on track
    Detroit- Kitna is not the long term answer, he's a short tern question
    Kansas City- Who knows WHAT Herm Edwards is thinking
    Chicago- Rex Grossman has more ups and downs than a pogo-stick

    The dark-horses
    Buffalo- Losman and Edwards are young but...
    NYJ- Hmmm...lets roll the videotape
    Carolina- You have to start somewhere
    Tampa- If the price was right...

    And you start the bidding... A swap of firsts a second and fifth this year, a first next year. See who gets in touch and stays in touch. The big thing here is to leak just enough to keep teams calling, while at the same time making it seem like you're entertaining multiple offers. Then, you pick the one that makes best sense and meets the team needs, hence the real value of the pick.
    The other thing to remember is that the Pats front office is open to thinking 'outside the box'. Randy Moss came via the draft, albeit unconventionally.
    I think what you have to do is draw a line in the sand and say collectively "we're only going to drop so far back". Of course, if they end up sliding out of the first round completely, I wouldn't be all that surprised. Especially if it nets a ton of second and thirds the next few years. The Pats have shown no fear when it comes to moving around in order to get the guy they want. No reason to think they'll stop it either.

    Trading out of a top 3 pick isn't as hard as you'd make it out to be. You just have to be willing to wait for the payoff a bit. If that means sliding back to #11 with a second this year and a first, and third next year so be it. The long term success of the team depends on seeing the now for what it is, and the future what can be developed with good coaching.
  11. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The answer to this thread is very simple:

    If there is a player there at #2 or #3 whose value is higher than the trades being offered then the player will be taken regardless of need.

    If the trade value is higher than the value of the players at #2 / #3 then the pick will be traded.

    That's why we are so dominant ... they always go for value regardless of need.
  12. NEfan32

    NEfan32 Rookie

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    Couldn't have said it better. It just seems people thikn they will trade the pick if the value of the player is greater than the deal.
  13. ayjackson

    ayjackson Rookie

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    two points:

    1) value is a function of need, among other variables - hence we won't pick Brian Brohm.

    2) 10th overall pick + $6m in cap space will have much much more value than anybody available at #2, before considering any picks coming in trade for the #2 spot. It's like choosing between Jake Long or Kenny Phillips and Karlos Dansby.
  14. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    A good trade partner for the Patriots might be Atlanta. The

    Pats #1 for Atlanta's #1 and #2 in 2008 and Atlanta's #2 in 2009.

    This is based on the current draft order for 2008.
  15. primetime

    primetime Rookie

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    #18 Jersey

    History will show that past #2 picks have been anything but "sure fire studs."
  16. Pedrorocks458

    Pedrorocks458 Rookie

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    Bad teams end up at the top of the draft.

    Bad teams can't draft.

    Bad teams can't draft at the top of the draft.

    I could care less about the history of a draft slot.
  17. carolinatony

    carolinatony Rookie

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    Lets let it play out first. The 49ers can still win a few gams and we end up with a 4-7 pick. That's big not being in the top 3!
  18. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Exactly. The Patriots have an excellent track record with the draft.
    I have confidence in them to make the right choice.
    Something that one of the posters above has clearly forgotten.

    Who knows, that right choice come draft day, may just be McFadden. :D
  19. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    You keep repeating this magical mantra of "50 cents on the dollar" as if it proves a point. It really doesn't. What you're advocating is that BB make a bad deal just for the sake of making a deal. I don't think he'll do that. Nor do I think any reasonable fan would think he'll do that.

    The phrase "50 cents on the dollar" implies a firesale. The #2 overall pick in the draft is too valuable to treat that way. Please take a deep breath, relax, and actually think about the significance of that pick.

    Also consider the structure of most drafts.
    In most drafts you might have 3-5 "special" franchise quality talents. After that you might get 10-12 "very good starters", mixed with "solid players", and mixed with busts. To be able to pick one of the special players, that rarely happens to a team that is likely to win the Superbowl. Adding that special player has the possibility of extending the dominance of the dynasty years into the future. Such a special draft opportunity is not something to be taken or given away lightly.
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2007
  20. mcbee

    mcbee Banned

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    50 cents on the dollar doesn't imply a firesale. IT implies that the Pats would receive LESS value than they SHOULD based on a CHART. A dubious chart which has no official validity. But value which BB may think is better than picking. May think is better, maybe not, but if he takes a deal, I doubt he'll consult a chart, he'll go by what he thinks is better.

    The Pats are "really good at drafting"? Maybe. Bethel Johnson says hello.
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