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How valuable is Seymour?

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  1. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    How Valuable is Seymour?
    Statistical Study of 76 Defensive Tackles from 32 NFL teams, 2004 and 2005 seasons.

    I compared 76 DTs in football, considering 3-4 DEs as Defensive Tackles. I used four statistical categories: Against the pass, sacks and batted balls; and against the run, stuffs and total tackles minus sacks. I considered a DT’s performance against the run and pass of equal importance. I ranked all the DTs in each category and then added up the rankings to determine the overall production of each player compared with his peers. Here are the top twenty performers among DTs against the pass, run and overall, and also a separate category for 3-4 nose tackles.

    I. Defensive Tackles: Impact in the Passing Game, 2004-2005 Seasons.
    Abbreviation Key:
    PR: Position Rank
    S: Sacks
    BB: Batted balls
    (NT): Nose Tackle in a 3-4
    (3-4): 3-4 Defensive End
    (R): Rookie

    Statistical Notes:
    (a) for NFL DTs, a batted ball has roughly the same value as a sack.
    (b) the tie breaker in position ranking is #sacks.


    PR, Name S(PR) BB(PR) PRaggregate
    1.K. Williams, Min 16(2) 15(1) 3
    2.Coleman, Atl 22(1) 12(3) 4
    3.Bernard, Sea 12(3) 9(6) 9
    4.Henderson, JK 9(6) 11(4) 10
    5.Griffin, Wash 10(5) 8(7) 12
    6.Rogers, Det 10(5) 7(8) 13
    7.R. Smith,Hou(3-4)4(11) 13(2) 13
    8.Buckner, Car 5(10) 10(5) 15
    9.A. Smith,Pitt(3-4)10(5) 4(11) 16
    10.Seymour,NE(3-4)9(6) 5(10) 16
    11.Jenkins, GB 8(7) 6(9) 16
    12.Stroud, JK 6(9) 8(7) 16
    13.Raegor, Ind 11(4) 2(13) 17
    14.Roye, Cle(3-4) 4(11) 9(6) 17
    15.Starks, Tenn 8(7) 4(11) 18
    16.Zgonina, Mia 7(8) 5(10) 18
    Browning, KC 7(8) 5(10) 18
    18.Williams(NT),SD 4(11) 8(7) 18
    19.Glover, Dal 10(5) 1(14) 19
    20.Kelly, Oak 9(6) 2(13) 19

    II. Defensive Tackle Rankings: Impact in the Running Game, 2004-2005
    Abbreviations:
    PR: Position Rank
    STF: Stuff for loss against the run
    TT-S: Total Tackles minus Sacks

    Statistical Notes:
    (a) For an NFL DT, a STF in the run game has roughly the value of 10 conventional tackles.
    (b) Total Tackles are ranked by decades. Thus 72 and 76 are considered equal.
    (c) First Tie Breaker for Position rank is (TT – S) + 10(STF); second tiebreaker is #STF.

    Pos. Rank, Player STF(PR) TT-S(PR) PR aggregate
    1.Griffin, Wash 21(1) 95(5) 6
    2.P. Williams, Min 19(2) 106(4) 6
    3.Pickett, STL 15(3) 107(4) 7
    4.Warren, NE(3-4) 14(4) 111(3) 7
    5.Roye, Cle(3-4) 13(5) 122(2) 7
    6.Haynesworth,Ten15(3) 83(6) 9
    7.B Young, NO 13(5) 107(4) 9
    8.Douglas,SF(3-4) 11(7) 123(2) 9
    9.R. Smith,Hou(3-4)11(7) 116(3) 10
    10.Scott, Chi 15(3) 69(8) 11
    11.Rogers, Det 12(6) 99(5) 11
    12.Henderson,Jack8(10) 136(1) 11
    13.Harris, Chi 13(5) 71(7) 12
    14.A. Smith,Pitt(3-4)12(6) 74(7) 13
    15. Adams(NT),SF 11(7) 85(6) 13
    16.Payne,Hou(3-4)9(9) 103(4) 13
    17.Raegor, Ind 12(6) 68(8) 14
    18.S. Adams, Buff 12(6) 51(9) 15
    19.Dockett, Ar 11(7) 68(8) 15
    20.Seymour,NE(3-4)10(8) 78(7) 15



    III. Overall Defensive Tackle Rankings, 2004 and 2005. Passing Game and Running Game Combined.

    Abbreviation Key
    PR@Pass: position rank against the pass
    PR@Run: position rank against the run

    Statistical Notes.
    (a)Tiebreaker for NFL DTs is production against the pass.

    Pos. Rank, Player PR@Pass PR@Run PR aggregate
    1.Griffin, Wash 12 6 18
    2.K. Williams, Min 3 16 19
    3.Henderson, Jck 10 11 21
    4.R. Smith, Hou(3-4)13 10 23
    5.Roye, Cle(3-4) 17 7 24
    6.Rogers, Det 13 11 24
    7.Coleman, ATL 4 20 24
    8.Bernard, Sea 9 18 27
    9.Pickett, STL 21 7 28
    10.Douglas, SF(3-4)19 9 28
    11.A. Smith, Pitt(3-4)16 13 29
    12.Warren, NE(3-4)23 7 30
    13.P. Williams, Min 24 6 30
    14.Seymour, NE(3-4)16 15 31
    Stroud, Jck 16 15 31
    16.Raegor, Ind 17 14 31
    17.Scott, Chi 20 11 31
    18.Haynesworth,Ten22 9 31
    19.Harris, Chi 21 12 33
    20.Zgonina, Mia 18 15 33


    3-4 Nose Tackles, Overall
    1.Williams(NT),SD 18 16 34
    2.Adams(NT),SF 24 13 37
    3.Ferguson(NT),Dal24 17 41
    4.Wilfork(NT), NE 23 19 42
    5.Wash.(NT),Oak 24 20 44
    6.Hampt.(NT), Pitt 30 20 50
    7.Fisk(NT), Cle 27 24 51

    Conclusion

    Richard Seymour: Except for Albert Hainesworth (8), Tommy Kelly (6), and Grady Jackson (6), Seymour missed more games over the last two years due to injury (5 not counting playoffs) than any DT who appeared on the top twenty list against the pass, the run, or overall. If he had been healthy and his production had remained consistent, he would have likely finished in the top 5 overall among DTs, which is consistent with his talent level. However, durability has become an issue with Seymour, as he has missed significant time with knee problems two years in a row. Going forward one can expect, judging from his past, that durability will continue to be an issue, and that is part of the package when considering resigning him. Seymour compares favorably with John Henderson in production. If the Pats are offering to pay Seymour in the same salary area as John Henderson that seems like a fair offer. If Seymour is demanding to be paid as the highest paid defensive player in football, his demands seem unreasonable. With the emergence of the underrated Ty Warren, the improvement of Wilfork at the nose, and the versatility of Jarvis Green, even if Seymour leaves, the Pats defense should remain competitive provided they acquire compensation for Seymour and redistribute his salary throughout the defense. In conclusion, I believe if Seymour is demanding to be the highest paid defensive player in football, then those demands are excessive considering his overall production and durability over the last two years.
  2. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ~~~Out of Order~~~ PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    How important are water and the atmosphere?
  3. Alk

    Alk Rookie

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    How important is Seymour? On a scale of 1-10? About 175.
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2006
  4. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    re

    Interesting post, by the way welcome to the board.

    Not sure I agree with the conclusions, since Seymour's impact can't be measured by his personal statistics. A better study would be to compare overall pass/run defensive numbers when the player is in or on the bench. Still, it is interesting that Ty Warren rates so high on your list. I'll have to pay more attention to him to see for myself.

    .
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2006
  5. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Bingo! Nicely done again Pony!

    Mav4, Warren was the MVP of the D-line last season from this observer's perspective. The Oakland game was a case in point, Warren was a monster, literally owning the "great" Robert Gallery. Seymour was owned by Stone on the left side and Wilfork was Grove's favorite squeaky toy. The first half of the Kansas City game worked the same way.

    I want Sey extended, but before we have another McGinest/Vinatieri panic, we need to remember that BB can win with a 'lesser' player, heck even Cowher's bums play okay defense. ;)
  6. holyredeemer

    holyredeemer Rookie

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    Pay more attention to Ty Warren? You havent seen his excellent hard nosed play all of last season? What a shame:( Oh well, i like the analysis and give u major kudos for going thru all of that hard work just to give us something to talk about. I appreciate that, for it has been dull lately. I think if Seymour wants to become the highest paid defensive player in all of the nfl, and doesnt seem to budge then he needs to be traded. Im sorry everyone, I know how great seymour is, trust me I DO. But, he tends to get overhyped and he has had injury problems the last 2 yrs. that have been killing our defense. It's not a question of how important he is to this team but more of a question on whether or not it would be in our best interest as a team to lock up a guy that hasnt shown that he can stay healthy anymore, for that long.
  7. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Statistics do not tell much about Seymour as he is often double teamed and plays a lot of different roles on Defense. When I watch the Pats I always key on him, and am amazed at what he does..he does not often get credit for the tackle or the assist, but often misdirects plays and is a continual disruptive influence on the field. His stats got better toward the end of last year, when they let him loose. IMO he is probably the best in the league at what he does, stats will not always bear this out..but watching him and his presence on the field certainly does..
  8. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    GJ,
    I agree with you that, when healthy, Seymour is a top 5 Defensive Tackle in the NFL, maybe even the best. But remember Seymour is not the only DT in the NFL who gets double teamed. Shaun Rogers, Kevin Williams, John Henderson, Marcus Stroud, and Pat Williams have faced similar opposition to Seymour, and produce statistics that are comparable to Seymour. The same argument you make about Seymour's impact not being measurable could just as easily be said about all of them... yet they all produce measurable statistics that put them in the top 20 among their peers, as does Seymour. This tells me that in fact their impact is measurable, and so is Seymour's.
  9. Mainefan

    Mainefan Rookie

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    This is a very important point. Much of what Seymour does can't be measured, because it impacts on other members of the D-line. The statistics he does rack up are IN ADDITION to the fact that he makes the entire D-line better and disrupts a lot of what the opposing O-line is trying to do.

    This is one of the problems with the exhaustive and actually very clever statisfiying Pony has been doing. There is no way to quantify the intangibles. It's not even easy to describe them. But the entire Patriots' defense feels different when Seymour is in there, stronger, more confident, more dominant.

    It is true, on the other hand, that he has been injured often. I'm sure he gets an unusual amount of punishment, even for a DE. But I hope he stays well for the entire season. He's one of the main reasons the Patriots are very, very rarely out of the game.
  10. holyredeemer

    holyredeemer Rookie

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    We are straying off the point here. No one is ? how important seymour is to this team. I think what pony was trying to point out, is whether or not he is really worth being paid as the top Def. player in league history. I dont think our team can afford to lock up a guy with that much money when he has been injured so much the last 2 yrs.
  11. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rookie

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    That is prodigious data-mining, PonyX!
    Your conclusions are reasonable and ... more to the point ... measured.

    It's a cold shower, naturally, for many emotional fans ... who are glad to see our very own Richard
    as "the top DL in the NFL - who oughta be paid that way".

    We've been hypothesizing a lot lately about a 9 million cap hit every year for Big Sey.
    Thorough information like this helps everyone evaluate whether one select player
    is worth TWO players each worth 4.5 mil ... or THREE each worth 3 mil ... whom we wouldn't have otherwise.
  12. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    re

    NOT that I'm saying the Pats should do this, but if they were to shop Seymour around, what kind of value do you think they could realistically get back?

    I'm thinking the Pats could trade Seymour for a top 10 pick as well as a 4th rounder.
  13. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    How many DL can play as a 3-4 end one play, as a tackle in a 4-3 scheme, as a end in a 4-3 scheme??

    Put John Henderson in the Patriots' scheme. Will the Pats be able to present as many different looks to the opposing offenses??

    How many of the aforementioned will be young as Seymour when the season starts?

    The most important stat in the NFL is wins. What DL has played in more wins over the 5 past years than Seymour?? What DL has played in more playoff wins than Seymour???
  14. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Imaginary conversation over several months

    BB: "Hey, RS, play fullback for us."

    RS: "Sure, BB, anything for the team."

    Months later, BB: "RS, you are injury-prone."

    Fill in RS's response.;)
  15. shakadave

    shakadave Rookie

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    Of course we could also make the point that a lot of plays come at Warren because offenses are afraid to run near Seymour. Not that I'm not a huge Warren fan too!
  16. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It says here that the Pats can afford to make Seymour the highest paid defensive lineman in the game AND still be able to afford 3 3 million players.
  17. DB15

    DB15 Rookie

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    If you ask me he is more than vital to the defence


    but the real quesiotn we all have to ask is, is he worth the money?
  18. the taildragger

    the taildragger Rookie

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    best measure of seymour's value is to look at the overall defensive stats when he's in and when he's not. Backs don't like to run at him and he's often double teamed...he raises everyone's game to another level even though he doesn't rack up huge numbers by himself.

    Most serious analysts agree that seymour is the most dominant defensive player in the game right now, even though he won't win any fantasy awards or MVPs.

    In my view he's the TB of the defense...in fact, those are the two guys you pay big bucks and build the rest of the team around IMO.
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2006
  19. PatsFanInVa

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    That about says it, taildragger - now it's a matter of whether Belichick says that too, when all is said and done. I think a lot of the cap-clearing has to do with this contract, but I've been wrong before.

    You don't get Seymour for 4.5M. You don't get him for 6M. Over the life of the contract you're going to be looking at the 8M neighborhood, on average. That's why I'm a fan of frontloading it now, rather than have that headache to weave the rest of the cap around (along with Brady) for several more years.

    Warren and Wilfork are good linemen. Very good, considering what you ask of each of the three in the 3-4 sets. Seymour is more of a once-in-a-decade player, and no, stats don't do a very good job of measuring that. (don't start me on my obsession of figuring out what you would use for LTBE incentives for Sey.)

    You can plug that hole with a sack king, a run-stuffing tackle, whatever you want, at the top of their respective game. None of them will do the job in every set as thoroughly as Seymour. There's a reason he's routinely called the best DL in the game.

    Last thought - Colvin's cap hit is going to be big this year and a million bigger next year (and then another million the following year.) I don't think it will be long before the Pats assess his progress and look for trades (next offseason?)

    PFnV
  20. fgssand

    fgssand PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    VERY disappointing answer there Box O - I look at you as one of the top 10 "Patsfaners" and was surprised to read you even think of comparing an older kicker (very much overpaid) and an aging awesome Linebacker (again, way overpaid and evidently had already made his exit plan middle of last season) to argue ably the best DL in football today. RS is young, entering the very prime of his career and an absolute force. Please go study what happens to our defense and the players around him when he is in. Please check out the opinions of every single player, coach and NFL expert about his stellar play and you will find no disagreement anywhere that Richard Seymour is one of if not the best defensive lineman in the NFL.

    We have the cap dollars, RS has always said he is not looking to break the bank, just looking to receive his worth based on his value to this team. Richard Seymour is player #2 , right after Tom Brady. With him, our defense remains dominant and superbowl caliber, without him, we struggle.

    There should be no argument here - sign Richard Seymour PLEASE.
  21. arrellbee

    arrellbee Rookie

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    Pony Express - I'd like to see the same workup done comparing against DEs along with the other outside DL in a 3-4.

    What stat source did you use, so when I look at this comparison, it would reflect the same source ??

    Thanks for a VERY interesting stat workup.
  22. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    Arrellbee,
    My stat source was espn.com. I plan to do a workup for Defensive Ends next, which will include 3-4 OLBs. I view the 3-4 in simplified terms as a 4-3 with a nose tackle and additional coverage responsibilities for the DEs (aka OLBs). I would like to consider CBs, LBs and Safeties eventually, and hopefully I will be able to whip one up a week. I think these studies, if too much isn’t read into them, can help separate fact from fiction.
  23. arrellbee

    arrellbee Rookie

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    Thanks much !!
  24. jczxohn1

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    Regardless of how Sey has been injured, the fact remains he has been injured twice in the last two years in the same knee. IMO, in signing him to a 4+ yr contract one must assume he will miss playing one of those years. He is one more cut block away from an ACL tear. And, he will be a target in the role of tying up two blockers.
    That said, PonyExpress' analysis is very good for most situations, (check it out on the Draft Board Forum), but doesn't factor in stat adjustments for players who miss multiple games. Also, it doesn't really account for the Seymour phenomena, where he dominates an opponent so much but doesn't actually make the play. Rosie's improvement from the middle of the season on the run made teams account for him on the same side and thus, Sey's stats improved. Ty graded very high, IMO, teams were running and screening more to that side due to Wilie's decreased ability to set the edge. IE, the Denver game.
  25. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    My purpose wasn’t to find out who the most talented players are, but who the most productive are. If I were trying to find out who the most talented players are, I would do a “value vs. average replacement†analysis, or I might prorate statistics over the games Seymour missed to determine what he would have compiled had he not been injured. The reality is that a front office should not pay for talent, but for production, and durability is a reality that can’t be ignored. Durability in football is itself a kind of talent. The ability for a trench warrior to stay on the field over 32 games in the NFL can be an inherent athletic quality that some are blessed with and some aren’t. You could say that over the long haul of a 4 year NFL contract, production and durability = talent.
    As for the intangibles that Seymour brings to the defense, there is no doubt. But we can’t ignore the fact that there are other DTs with similar intangible qualities. Henderson and Stroud in Jacksonville allowed Mike Peterson to have a borderline All-Pro year playing behind them at LB, and the JCK DEs to accumulate more sacks than they otherwise would have playing alongside a Ryan Sims of KC, for example. We know that Urlacher had his best year before ’05 when he played behind Washington and Traylor. We know that the play of Fletcher and Spikes was elevated playing behind Adams and Pat Williams. All of these elite DTs have tangibles and intangibles that improve the play of their teams around them, which is the nature of the DT position. For instance, one could say that Seymour’s best year, ’03, came partly as a result of playing next to Ted Washington.
    One could argue that Seymour is constrained by the 3-4 system from making plays that would show up as statistics, because his role is essentially as a blocker on the defensive side of the ball for playmaking LBers. This is true, but it should be pointed out that several 3-4 DEs still made plays at a comparable level, among them Aaron Smith of Pittsburgh, whom you may recall BB spoke glowingly about on Super Bowl Sunday during his interview.
  26. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    Miguel...Good points... I agree that there are many intangibles in Sey's game..that other DEs might not bring to the table...but my question is given how it is obvious that his first agent DID NOT help him with a "good" contract..and the no extension till August situation as well as any other animosity left over from last year..is it possible that a contract CAN be worked out?? Might Sey wish for way more, sort of as an overreaction as to what happened before? Certainly the numbers are there for quite a fair one and the Patriots CAN if they wish do that and be OK cap wise, but I just wonder if it can be done. I have doubts..a gut feeling..hopefully way wrong and offbase.
  27. jczxohn1

    jczxohn1 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Agree with all of this and FWIW, your work is among the most valuable I've seen on this board lately. Signing Seymour is a true Gordian Knot.
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2006
  28. PatsWorldChamps

    PatsWorldChamps Rookie

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    how do you account for triple-teams? believe me, every coach in the nfl has him in the top 2
  29. PatsWorldChamps

    PatsWorldChamps Rookie

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    the pats have the most cap room in the nfl... they will sign a long term deal, or franchise him for 2 years and leave all the risk of injury on him
  30. fgssand

    fgssand PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I am OK with either scenario...I just do not want to lose this guy. For those that are afraid to pay him because he MIGHT get injured are chasing fear. Why pay Brady, he may also get injured as well.....when you have the best there is, you need to keep that talent plating for your team, period.

    RS has never said he will be unreasonable, all he asks for is a fair deal - he deserves it.

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