How the Patriots should look at pick 29

[manxman2601]

Aside from the explosion scores which Martin wins handily, Kareem Martin and JPP could be twins:

Kareem Martin

6057
272
35" arms
4.72 40, 1.64 10 yd split
22 bench
35.5" VJ, 10'09" BJ
7.20 3-cone


JPP

6'5"
270
34.75" arms
4.71 40, 1.65 10 yd split
19 bench
30.5" VJ, 9'7" BJ
7.18 3-cone

 

[Mark Morse]

Well i am glad that got the conversation going.

Here are a list of all the Patriots first round picks in the BB era with position & year

Seymour - DT #6 -01
Graham - TE #21 - 02
Warren - DT #13 - 03
Wilfork - NT #21 - 04
Watson - TE #32 - 04
Mankins - OG #32 - 05
Maroney - RB #21 - 06
Meriwhether - S #24 - 07
Mayo - LB #10 - 08
McCourty - CB/S #27 - 10
Solder - OT #17 - 11
Jones - DE #21 - 12
Hightower - LB #25 -12

Based upon your criteria and the position we are drafting in (#29), I see one player that should be drafted at this position. Joel Bitonio OT Nevada has quickly risen up the draft projections to a late 1st round pick. He is a carbon copy to Logan Mankins. They both played LT at their schools. Both will move to OG. Both colleges played weaker opponents and therefore their efforts were downgraded. Physically, Bitonio is one of the more gifted athletes. "Plays with vinegar and seeks to bury defenders -- nasty finisher who runs his feet on contact and consistently blocks defenders off the screen. Extremely tough and durable. Highly versatile -- can play any position on the line. Outstanding personal character and football character -- work ethic, leadership and responsibility are all exemplary. Produced the best 10-yard split (1.69 seconds) and 20-yard split (2.80) of any offensive lineman at the combine." - NFL.com He ran a 4.97 40 electronically timed at Combine. He had 38 career starts at Nevada and was a team Captain.

BB drafts OT's and makes them OG. Bitonio also worked out at OC at the combine and private workouts. I would love to see a double down of Bitonio and Brandon Thomas.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

[QUOTE="manxman2601, post: 3816699, member: 29179I'd be very much on board with the Fiedorowicz pick.[/QUOTE]

Am I missing something here? How can we justify taking CJ over Amaro? Is it because of the blocking or lack thereof?

Is anybody looking at his Texas Tech tape, Amaro makes plays. We need playmakers.

 

[NewFeep]

I am just now starting to "bone up" on my mock wishlist but I never insert names into the equation.
I really see a trade out out of the first round to pick up more "ammo" for moving around later if necessary the most probable scenario. If that is indeed the case, if at the end of day 2, three rounds completed we have a DT/DE, OLB, TE, Safety and C/G I will feel a whole lot better about 2014 and beyond.........Am I asking for too much? Doesn't feel like it to me..........

 

[manxman2601]

[QUOTE="manxman2601, post: 3816699, member: 29179I'd be very much on board with the Fiedorowicz pick.

Am I missing something here? How can we justify taking CJ over Amaro? Is it because of the blocking or lack thereof?

Is anybody looking at his Texas Tech tape, Amaro makes plays. We need playmakers.[/QUOTE]


Amaro's really stiff and plays very straight line, all reflected in his poor 3-cone. The Fed is a better blocker, better end zone threat and has hands that are equally as good and if the current values are right, is much more preferable in the third than Amaro in the first. That's the way I see the two of them anyway. I'm fine with Amaro at 62 but I've never liked him at 29.

 

[dryheat44]

Am I missing something here? How can we justify taking CJ over Amaro? Is it because of the blocking or lack thereof?

Is anybody looking at his Texas Tech tape, Amaro makes plays. We need playmakers.

What's missing is that Amaro played in one of the most statistically inflationary offenses in the NCAA. Often times it just doesn't translate to NFL success, and I think the Combine showed how (relatively) unathletic Amaro is. I can't see him as an offensive weapon in the NFL.

 

[StyLeZ X]

Interesting exercise to go with those criteria first and foremost and see what the prospect list looks like. Something like:

Ra'shede Hageman
Allen Robinson
Stephon Tuitt
Joel Bitonio

if we could trade down and some how end up with Robinson/Tuitt I'd be ecstatic.

 

[Luxusdk]

Aside from the explosion scores which Martin wins handily, Kareem Martin and JPP could be twins:


The knock on Martin is lack of pass rush, a strong run defender and setting the egde. Some beleave he is a LDE only.

 

[manxman2601]

A lot of that is scheme. Bear in mind, of the main DEs in this draft, Martin was the most productive pass rusher although he did benefit from some good numbers against poor OL. But when you watch him convert speed to power, he can at times be dominant.

Watch him against Matt Patchan at 3:45

 

[Luxusdk]

He is number 2 DE behind Tut Tut train wrech incomming and would take him at 62 IF they going with Robinson at 29 and CJF at 93. But i use another combo for 1-2-3 ( Hint same positions in another order )

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Kyle van noy!!!!

 

[Water Boy]

What I think Bill looks for in his 1st round picks are "safe" picks. The 1st round isn't a time to gamble on a projection. I can't think of a player he has done that with in his time here. He looks to see how guys compare with those currently on the roster and he looks for players who can be cornerstones of his team for the next 10 years.

I think Ben Watson was a little bit of a gamble.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Just some thoughts.

When you pick a player in round one you are looking for a 3 things.

1) Need - Does this player fit a need position for me?
2) Good Starter - Can this player start for my team and play at a high level.
3) Impact - Can this Starting playing make a big impact.

So first off we should ask ourselves what starting spots the Patriots generally have open.

TE - We use 2 generally making this a starting spot.
C - Wendell is not even average starting level
G - Connoly is okay but can be upgraded
SS - This spot is not really claimed but it is designed within our system to have generally have a true SS and kind of have a high safety and low safety. Also we have no idea how good Ryan could be as the 2nd S in our system. If he does it as well as he plays CB or better this spot might not even be open. Also Harmon showed promise and could turn out to be a serviceable starter. Either way this spot can easily be makeshift not making it s true need.

Other needs are DT, DE, LB, WR. However we currently have starting level players for all of those. DT is a tad questionable but the depth there is pretty good regardless. And it is very possible a DT draft pick at 29 would not see starting minutes.

So when you look at the starting spots which are open for sure (TE, C, G, SS) no one really falls in our range at 29 to hit the 3 keys i posted.

TE (besides Ebron who shouldn't fall) has no prospect in that range worth taking. Same for Center. SS does but like i said that can be easily makeshift and we potentially have our starters anyway. G is a need and we could get a guy to start. However it is hard for a G to have a big impact. I do not see a guy we can take as good as Mankins which is about the worst quality guard i would want if we used a first round pick on one. Not to mention Connolly though upgradable is at least serviceable.

The point is this. No one at pick 29 truly makes sense for us to pick. There is not "Chandler Jones" when you have a clear need, a player is there that can fill it & start and make a big impact. That is really not available to us.

That is the reason you see so many different players mocked to us. Because no player in our range really makes sense. I think the Patriots know this as well. However, if that is the cause the question becomes what do we do about it?

The only player on the board that fits all 3 keys for use is Ebron - TE. Everyone else is either a key backup/rotation player or is just really good and upgrade a already decent player or is a reach (like drafting one of the Centers at 29). This does not mean I am saying we should break the bank to take Ebron. In fact I am very much against that idea. I just think it illustrates how out of play our first pick is in this draft.

I like3 your analysis but I differ in one degree. There are three Day 1 starters available wihtthe #29. One may go slihgtly sooner though. Zack marti, Joel Bitonio and Xaviar Suia

Very fair points. I was talking about how they were commonly portrayed in draft analyses at the time -- as intriguing physical specimens who hadn't made as big an impact on the field as their athleticism suggested. But they did have solid college experience.



I've had the same thoughts, but with Joel Bitonio as the target.

I like Bitonio and X SuaFilo both, and also Zack Martin. Any or all would upgrade the Offensive line to greatness.

 

[supafly]

Based upon your criteria and the position we are drafting in (#29), I see one player that should be drafted at this position. Joel Bitonio OT Nevada has quickly risen up the draft projections to a late 1st round pick. He is a carbon copy to Logan Mankins. They both played LT at their schools. Both will move to OG. Both colleges played weaker opponents and therefore their efforts were downgraded. Physically, Bitonio is one of the more gifted athletes. "Plays with vinegar and seeks to bury defenders -- nasty finisher who runs his feet on contact and consistently blocks defenders off the screen. Extremely tough and durable. Highly versatile -- can play any position on the line. Outstanding personal character and football character -- work ethic, leadership and responsibility are all exemplary. Produced the best 10-yard split (1.69 seconds) and 20-yard split (2.80) of any offensive lineman at the combine." - NFL.com He ran a 4.97 40 electronically timed at Combine. He had 38 career starts at Nevada and was a team Captain.

BB drafts OT's and makes them OG. Bitonio also worked out at OC at the combine and private workouts. I would love to see a double down of Bitonio and Brandon Thomas.

Mankins did not play LT until his final year at Fresno State, as he had played RT previously. He was often thought of as a potential NFL interior guard due to his frame and build, at least according to all of the scouting sites.

Joel Bitonio is listed as an OG right off the bat, not a tackle, on the CBS drafting site. They just don't see him as a fit in the NFL for a tackle due to his length or build. I think Mankins was a bit different in that regard, and while he was projected as a better fit at guard for the NFL by just about everyone, he certainly had more athleticism in my opinion to play more LT. Bitonio "appears to have shorter then ideal arms, an issue that explains why Bitonio occasionally falls off blocks or is beaten with an effective over-arm swim move. Can get fundamentally lazy and stop moving his feet, allowing himself to get over-extended." http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1754724/joel-bitonio

Bitonio is projected as at least the 3rd or 4th best IOL in the draft (depending on the site) and given a clear 2nd round grade. While Belichick certainly could target him in the 1st round, I think taking an interior offensive lineman that high would be a bit of a waste myself. I think you could be right in the sense that it's a "safer" type of pick, and you may be right in the guess that is what Belichick will be targeting...we'll have to see, and will know soon enough.

I wouldn't hate the pick, but I would think that we passed on more talented BPAs at the same time, and reached somewhat. Then again, with Mankins' career wrapping up a bit, Bitonio could end up replacing him for much less of a cost in the next couple of years, so that may be worth it in and of itself. I would just rather wait it out until at least the 2nd or 3rd round for another player at the position. Just my opinion though. I certainly could be more than wrong.

 

[supafly]

He is number 2 DE behind Tut Tut train wrech incomming and would take him at 62 IF they going with Robinson at 29 and CJF at 93. But i use another combo for 1-2-3 ( Hint same positions in another order )

I would love the thought of DE, TE, and one of OL/RB/WR in the top 3 picks. I'm not as sure as some about the position of WR due to the thought that it seems like we've invested a decent amount of resources and money lately, but Robinson as a nice talent.

 

[supafly]

Aside from the explosion scores which Martin wins handily, Kareem Martin and JPP could be twins:

Kareem Martin

6057
272
35" arms
4.72 40, 1.64 10 yd split
22 bench
35.5" VJ, 10'09" BJ
7.20 3-cone


JPP

6'5"
270
34.75" arms
4.71 40, 1.65 10 yd split
19 bench
30.5" VJ, 9'7" BJ
7.18 3-cone

The thought of adding another stud DE makes me salivate, particularly since I see Ninkovich (bless his overachieving heart) as more of a rotational player there. I do wonder though, how Belichick feels about the need since we do have 2 starting DEs at the moment? Obviously, we have no idea, and maybe he's not happy with Ninkovich in that role--or at least under the impression that he's good but still limited in some ways, which is what I believe.

That will all depend on BB's assessment, and whether or not he views someone as just being too great of a talent to pass up. I used to be a little higher on Tuitt due to his versatility to play both inside and out, but I'm not as sure at the moment.

If we do go DE, Martin seems to be as good or as comparable of a prospect as anyone else though.