How the Jets can win on Sunday, and....

[patfanken]

....why they WILL lose. A fairly comprehensive and objective view of round three (I hope ).

HOW THE JETS CAN WIN: This is the NFL and ANY team can beat another on any given Sunday. Watching the Texans beat the Colts, the Lions beat the Jags, and the Niners beat the Broncos, are just recent examples of the above statement. So to think that the Jets CANNOT beat the Pats on Sunday is pure drivel. Of course they can. I will be an uphill battle, but they surely can do, and it wouldn't be a shocker. The Jets have proven themselves over the course of 16 games to be among the top 10 teams in the entire league. Sunday 2 of the "top 10" will meet. The Pats SHOULD have several advantaged, which I will enumerate later, but none cannot be overcome. It is the NFL ya know.

When their offense has the ball:

The run game:

1. Since one of the reasons the Jets have had so much immediate success is that EM took (some would say "stole" ) the Pats blueprint for success and followed it to the letter. So why not keep on, keeping on? I think its clear that the Pats have a very good run defense, especially when everyone is healthy, and relative to the NFL, everyone in the front 7 WILL BE healthy. So what should the Jets do? Simple. Do what BB would do. DON'T RUN.

Just this season, the Pats with a much better run game than the Jets, ran up against 2 teams who had exellent run defenses (Vikes, Jags) What did they do. Well they didn't bang their heads against the wall, that was for certain. They lined up in empty backfield and 4-5 WRs/TEs/RBs and threw the ball.

2.That's what the Jets should do. It matches THEIR strength (QB & WRs), against a perceived weakness of the Pats, (their secondary) If I were EM et al I would be going over the Pats offense game plan for those games plus the 2002 opener against Pittsburgh and develop a similar game plan for this game. IMHO its the only way the Jets are going to move the ball on a regular basis.

3. EARLY ON, the Jets HAVE to take some shots down the field, and in today's NFL, there is NO real reason why they shouldn't. (PET PEEVE, pardon the vent) These days, when the ball goes deep, there is, quite frankly, more that can go well for the offense, than bad.

A. The pass can be completed
B If not it will force the secondary to play it straight, and make the underneath stuff easier to thow
C. There is as good a chance that some ref will throw a flag and GIVE you the reception.
D. Even if the ball is picked off, the general result would be like a 40+ yd punt with no return.

In the "old days" throwing deep was a LOW percentage play, But in today's NFL with all the phantom holding and PI calls, the percentages have now gone in the offenses favor. JMHO and thanks for allowing me to vent.

So given the above reasons, any offense should be throwing deep more often, and even with Pennington's "noodle arm", he can get the ball down there 50+ yards. This SHOULD be a big part of the Jets offense, and they SHOULD heave it deep at LEAST 5 times in this game.

When the Jets run the ball.

THEY SHOULDN'T RUN the ball, in the conventional sense, EXCEPT for draws, very short yardage, reverses and other and trick plays. Simply, why play into the strength of your opponent when you don't do it well anyway. Be like BB, and PLAY TO YOUR STRENGTHS, and your opponents WEAKNESSES.

Trick plays: DON'T be afraid to use them. Some times to beat a superior team you have to use slight of hand. Half back passes, fake punts, etc, should all be in the book and ready for deployment on Sunday. Making just one of them is like a TO and can COMPLETELY change the momentum of a game and really take the crowd out of it.

WHEN THE JETS ARE ON DEFENSE:

1. In the game the Jets won they also won the turnover battle 2-1. To win this game the Jets are going to have to make the Pats offense or special teams turn the ball over at least 2 times and more likely 3.

2. Put pressure on Brady like you did in game 2. This, quite frankly, is the ONLY way you can consistantly stop this offense, if it isn't self destructing on its own, like they did in Miami.

Last time you did a superior job in getting pressure on Brady. It was the 2nd best job all year (Miami in game 2). BOTTOM LINE if you sit back in coverage like, for example, the Jags did, you will lose this game badly.

3. Stop the run - This is going to be hard, because the Pats have a good running game & have run the ball effectively against pretty much EVERYONE, even the good run defenses, which the Jets DON'T have. STILL, the Pats are impatient and have at times prematurely gotten AWAY from the run, EVEN when it's working. USE this to your advantage and use tendencies to use run blitzes effectively. Allow the 5-7 yd gain, but occassionally blow a run up in the backfield. This seems to get the Pats off the consistant run game. Plus Rhodes is one of the better DB run supporters in the league.

The defense HAS to put Brady in 3rd and long (7+) possitions, THEN be able to get to him when he gets into those situations. Its really THAT simple.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Jets HAVE to win the battle of the special teams. Pac Man Jones litterally kept the Titans in the game....for a while, with his special teams plays. However the Pats have a better than average kick return team as 2 well. Miller will have to have at LEAST one big play like last time

BOTTOM LINE - If the Jets execute this game plan, I think they have a good chance to win the game.


WHY THE JETS WILL LOSE

To understand better, you have to go back to WHY the Jets WON game 2

1. The bye-week - The Jets came into that game very healthy (as they have been all year, relatively speaking). AND had the time to implement a very DIFFERENT defensive game plan. Not only did they COMPLETELY fool the Pats with their blitzes, they did it ALL game. Whatever they did, the Pats failed to figure it out DURING the game to stop or even mitigate it.

2. The Pats were missing some key people (Wilson fs, Harrison ss, Warren de, Neal rg, O'Callahan rt, plus Seymour was just back with his bad elbow, and was benched because he wasn't really ready). Quite frankly, the Pats didn't have the run defense in place to get the ball back, when the Pats needed it. Also it was the first game without Harrison, and the secondary hadn't had time to adjust to the loss. These injuries weren't the REASON the Pats lost this game, just one of the smaller factors, but you can't underestimate it.

3. The rain and bad field - again, not THE reason the Pats lost, but a factor nevertheless.

4. The Pats played a bad game - They were sloppy all game. Brady had one of his worst game of the year (not statistically, but in his accuracy and decisions). The secondary dropped a few potential picks, plus on the biggest play of the day (the TD that gave the Jets their final score); the ball went RIGHT THROUGH the DBs hands before it got to the Jets WR.

5. On the whole the Jets out executed the Pats. They outcoached them, or at least took great advantage of the bye. Most importantly they out mentally toughed the Pats on this day. They were more physical, and more hungry IMHO. The better team won on THAT day.

WHAT HAS CHANGED THAT WILL LET THE PATS WIN

1. With the exception of Harrison, the Pats will be relatively healthy (at least as healthy as you can be with 14 guys on IR-FYI 2nd most in the NFL). Seymour, Warren, Wilfolk, Wright, and Green, will be able to put a lot MORE pressure on Chad than in the first game. And the secondary, after a few games, was very effective when Harrison went down the first time. This isn't to minimize his loss. It would be MUCH BETTER, if he were healthy, especially for the depth. But he isn't, and as they ususally do, they guys who move up (Sanders and Mickens) have done the job in his absense.

2. No Bye week- The Pats will be prepared to play those blitzes that were so effective in week ten. The OL is back intact, which will help protect Brady. In week 18 there is little new stuff that EITHER team will use. This game will be all about execution and the player, and less about the coaches and strategies, the media and people like us would have you believe.

3. The Pats have the talent & experience advantage at RB , QB, OL, & TEs. The Jets have the advantage at WR. On Defense, the Pats will have the advantage on the DL, slight to equal at LB, and the advantage at CB. The Jets are close at LB, and have the advantage at S. Both teams have excellent return teams, both are suspect on coverage.

BOTTOM LINE -

A. The Pats are TOO experienced. This cannot be underestimated. From all reports, the playoffs bring a NEW speed and intensity that, for some reason, isn't there for most regular season games. Its one and done for EVERY TEAM. Playoff experience DOES count.

B. They have the Home Field advantage (such that it is this year in the NFL. ) Its still an advantage to be home, and have the home crowd at your back.

C.They have the better QB, in fact the BEST playoff QB of his generation (if not any generation)

D.They have the better interior lines on Both Sides of the ball. Personally, I think long term the Jets OL can be as good, if not better, BUT not THIS year.

E. A number of advantages the Jets had in Game 2 are gone. The Pats relative health has improved. Preparation time is equal. The field is going to be fast. The Pats will have seen what hurt them before. The Pats are playing at a much higher level than before. They will not take this team lightly, like I think they did in the first encounter.

BOTTOM LINE - in the playoffs the three most important factors in a successful playoff run are a team's coaching, QB, and defense. The Pats are pretty much clicking on all three levels a the most important time of the season. The Jets are, frankly, not ready to take them on, unless everything goes the Jets way. It could happen, just not likely Prediction. The Pats 31-17

 

[Brownfan80]

....why they WILL lose. A fairly comprehensive and objective view of round three (I hope ).
[...]
BOTTOM LINE - in the playoffs the three most important factors in a successful playoff run are a team's coaching, QB, and defense. The Pats are pretty much clicking on all three levels a the most important time of the season. The Jets are, frankly, not ready to take them on, unless everything goes the Jets way. It could happen, just not likely Prediction. The Pats 31-17

Speak of the devil, ken, a couple of us were just talking about the quality that you bring to the board, and lo, there you are again. Great read. I think you've really helped put some of the situations that I was worrying over in perspective. And I'd forgotten how many players were out for that last meeting.

Great stuff. I look forward to your insights after the game, whichever way it goes.

 

[MrClutch]

The Pats will win because I dreamt it last night.

 

[Brownfan80]

The Pats will win because I dreamt it last night.

I had an awesome sex dream last night, so I hope that 'if you dream it, it comes true'. If so, woohoo for me!!

 

[Digger44]

patfanken,
Could I please give you a piece of advise about your posts? Please keep them coming. You are a massive benefit to this board. The 70 posts that you have given us have been of the utmost quality and integrity. Thank you so much for your thoughts. I hope that I can attian your knowledge of the game someday.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Some points about the first meeting:

1. Pennington outplayed Brady. A lot of Brady's throws were off, but Pennington completed a lot of important short passes.

2. The Pats secondary played a lot looser on their receivers than did the Jets on the short and swing passes: the Jets completed some important first downs while the Pats didn't have much joy on short passes after the catch.

3. The Pats tried to plug Maroney and Dillon up the middle. Although they had one or two nice runs (Dillon had one long one) they got stuffed more often than not in the second half.

I don't take the Jets lightly -- they're playing with a great deal of nothing-to-lose self-belief. We need to find ways to assert our fundamental strength -- on the lines, in particular.

(P.S. Thanks, as always.)

 

[Santa Barbara Pats Fan]

Ken:
Thanks so much for the effort you put into your posts and the insight it provides for all of us. Your one of the posters that make this board sooooo worthwhile.

 

[Oswlek]

I agree with you, Ken, that the passing game is the key to a Jets' possible win on Sunday. That said, the last time they met, the Jet offense was actually pretty reliant on the run (27 rushes and 35 passes, two of which turned into Penny scrambles) with some success. Hopefully NE thinks that they can win the LOS like they did last time ans tries that again.

The Jets won the game last time for three reasons:

1) They pushed around NE's DLs - absolutely won't happen again.
2) They confused NE's offense with well disguised and timed blitzes that often led to a rusher coming completely free - not likely to happen again
3) NE kept their CBs too far off and let the Jets nickle and dime their way down the field. I have to assume that this was due to a lack of confidence in the safeties sans Harrison, because it is the completely wrong way to play the Jets - I can't see NE giving the Jet WRs so much room again with the improved play of Sanders.

Unless the Jets pull something completely new out of their arses, or NE plays another terrible game, I really don't see NY winning this one. I just don't.

Edited to say that, as poorly as NE played, they were a fumble rolling out of bounds and a Dillon rush up the middle (when they needed 2 yards to get a first down inside the 5 - Dillon was a better choice than a Maroney rush to the outside) away from putting that game away early. I know things like this can be said for every game, but so many things went right for the Jets last game that are hard to see happening again, let alone all of them.

 

[mgcolby]

C'mon Ken you gave the jets to many points and you jipped the Pats a few as well.

Pats 34
Jets 10

Other than that your post was outstanding!

 

[cblesz]

Very thorough and informative. Thanks.

 

[Oswlek]

Very thorough and informative. Thanks. Only thing I would disagree with is save the trick plays for later. We should just ram it down their throats with Dillon and Maroney. The Jets run defense is weak.

I think he was saying that the Jets should be doing trick plays. I could be wrong though, I hear it happens sometimes.

 

[teamplay]

Ken's observations are terrific. Every logical and statistical way I look at this game says the Pats should win, BUT...

...the Jets are a scrappy, resilient team and, combined with Mangini's game planning surprises, they are an unpredictable, dangerous opponent. Game #2 was the most "taken-out-of-their-game" that the Pats have been all season. The Broncos, Colts, and Dolphins just outplayed them, IMO, but the Jets had schemes that surprised both the Pats' O and D.

I expect Mangini -- in BB fashion -- will have brand new schemes this week. We won't see what we saw before: it will be something new and different, perhaps even schemes the Pats have never seen before.

I give Mangini begrudging credit here: IMHO, he out-BBed BB last game. I expect the overall superior Pats to be ready for the challenge this time, but compared to Indy, SD, and Baltimore, the Jets could throw anything at the Pats this week.

 

[cblesz]

I think he was saying that the Jets should be doing trick plays. I could be wrong though, I hear it happens sometimes.

You are correct and I edited it...apologies. I ought to read s-l-o-w-e-r, duh.

 

[BruschiOnTap]

Game #2 was the most "taken-out-of-their-game" that the Pats have been all season.

I absolutely agree with this statement, the entire team looked confused and frustrated. It's got me worried about this weekend, for sure, but this post has lifted my spirits to 'cautiously optimistic.' This Sunday, our boys will have to play as well as they have all year and our coaches will have to be alert and adaptable in-game.

I am proud and excited about the potential of this Patriots team but I feel that the Jets are the one team that can derail everything we've achieved this season. I know they didn't go 14-2 and have a record winning streak, but in the face of an injury epidemic, a WR carousel, and questionable play-calling, they've won the division and have generated very strong momentum entering the playoffs. This team looks downright happy to be playing together right now. If you think that's good chemistry, think of what the Jets have in that department. I'm not a Chicken Little, rather I'm very impressed by the season New York has had so far.

 

[denverpatsfan]

GREAT POST.

Thanks!

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

Great post Ken....

And a few other tidbits....

The Pats were just coming off a tough loss on MNF to the Colts.....Even us fans were not in our usual hostile mood when the Jets came to town in the last game. The difference between 6 days rest and 14 days rest in the NFL is HUGE.

I think Mangini will throw some new stuff at us. Lots of play action. The multiple shifts. The delayed blitz on passing downs etc, etc. I do think we will win but the Jets will get their due.

I really like what Brady said in his press conference about the Jets: "This is the matchup we wanted"

Tear 'em a new one Tom.........

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

bump-badda-bump

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

EARLY ON, the Jets HAVE to take some shots down the field, and in today's NFL, there is NO real reason why they shouldn't. (PET PEEVE, pardon the vent) These days, when the ball goes deep, there is, quite frankly, more that can go well for the offense, than bad.

A. The pass can be completed
B If not it will force the secondary to play it straight, and make the underneath stuff easier to thow
C. There is as good a chance that some ref will throw a flag and GIVE you the reception.
D. Even if the ball is picked off, the general result would be like a 40+ yd punt with no return.

overall a fun analysis.
Spot on about why the Pats lost.
But you have a fallacy in Item D
Pennington can't throw the ball 40 yards downfield

 

[frankiesfly]

This is also a Mangini vs. Belechick battle. I see BB having his team prepared to the fullest. In BB"s head, Mangini is the coach he doesnt want to lose to most. I expect the pats to come out crazy and make a statement.