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How the Giants can win / Why the Pats will win

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ivanvamp, Jan 29, 2008.

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  1. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

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    If you try to make an argument for the Giants using straight-up
    reasoning, you really can't come up with one. Cold Hard Football
    Facts has demonstrated that, statistically, this is the biggest
    mismatch in Super Bowl history. I won't duplicate their article, but
    you can check it out here: http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2117_Mismatch_of_the_Cen...

    Here are my reasons for why the Patriots will win, and then the
    argument for how the Giants *can* win. First, for the Patriots:


    1. Extra preparation time. Since 2001, the Patriots are 12-1 after a
    bye week, with the only loss being a 24-16 loss to Denver in 2002, the
    worst year New England had over that span. This includes a 6-0 record
    in the playoffs, including two Super Bowl victories (the win over the
    Rams did not include a bye week in-between the AFCCG and SB). The
    average score of the Patriots' games after a bye week is: NE 26.3,
    Opp 13.8 - an average margin of victory of 12.5 ppg. In the playoffs,
    the average score is: NE 23.3, Opp 16.7 - an average margin of
    victory of 6.6 ppg. And that's over the top competition the NFL has
    to offer. Meanwhile, the Giants under Tom Coughlin are 1-3 after a
    bye week, with an average score of: NYG 16.3, Opp 19.5 - an average
    margin of -3.2 ppg. It seems, then, that the advantage of having a
    bye week is clearly in the Patriots' favor. Now, this doesn't even
    take into account the present situation of: (a) the Giants' momentum
    being slowed by an extra week off, and (b) the need for Brady's ankle
    to get a little better. Overall, this is a huge plus for the
    Patriots, not the Giants.


    2. The prospect of the legacy. I know this can be spun both ways:
    for the Giants, they are playing with "house money" (so the experts
    say) with nothing to lose, so they'll be loose and fired up, ready to
    go; meanwhile, the Patriots will feel all the pressure of playing for
    the undefeated season and they'll be tight. Here's all I have to say
    about that: never, not one time, have the Patriots, during the
    Belichick/Brady era, lost a playoff game they were favored to win.
    Not one time. The only two playoff losses they have suffered were
    both road games when they were underdogs. In every single other
    playoff game where they were the heavy, they did what the favorite is
    supposed to do: win. They don't always cover the spread, but then
    again, who cares? I'm not betting on the game, so I could care less
    if they win by 1 or 51. They just win. The pressure obviously does
    not get to these guys. Yes, they'll have "pressure" this week, but at
    this point, both the Pats and Giants are playing for the Lombardi
    Trophy. Guys like Strahan know that this is their last shot at a
    title, and you better believe they'll feel it just as badly as New
    England will. You mean to tell me that if the Giants are down by 5
    with 5:30 to go and Eli has the ball at his own 17 yard line, that he
    won't feel the pressure of the moment? He may not give in to it, but
    he won't sit there and think, hey, we're the Giants, we're not
    supposed to win, so who cares? Let's just have fun guys! No, he'll
    understand the gravity of the moment. If the Giants lose, they'll be
    just as disappointed as the Pats would be if they lost. Losing the SB
    must stink under any circumstances. The Giants are playing for a
    Lombardi, just like the Pats, but the Pats know they can cement their
    legacy for all-time with a win here. That's not extra pressure; it's
    added motivation.


    3. The Patriots are, in fact, the "hotter" team. Despite what experts
    say, the Patriots are the hottest team in the league. The Giants
    boast a winning streak of 3 games; the Patriots boast a winning streak
    of 18 games. The Giants have defeated 3 playoff teams in their last 3
    games (TB, Dal, GB) by an average score of 22.7-17.0, for an average
    margin of +5.7. Meanwhile, the Patriots have defeated 3 playoff teams
    in their last 3 games (NYG, Jax, SD) by an average score of 30.0-22.3,
    for an average margin of victory of +7.7. I wasn't a math major in
    college, but to me, 7.7 > 5.7. The last month, the Patriots are
    beating playoff teams by *more* points than the Giants are.


    4. They have better players and the better coach. No need to run
    through the rosters or give the resumes of Coughlin and Belichick. BB
    is considered (with good reason as he has numerous SB rings) to be the
    best coach in football today. Coughlin is good, for sure, but he's
    not in the same league as Belichick. As far as the players go, the
    Pats have the best QB, the best WR, the best left side of the
    offensive line (I'd run left all day behind KBrady, Light, Mankins,
    and Koppen), the better secondary, the better D-line (although New
    York's is very good), the better kicker, and more. In short, their
    personnel is much better, and it's coached by a better coach. When
    the Pats beat the Rams, the Rams had better personnel, but the Pats
    had the better coach. When the Giants beat the Bills, the Bills had
    the better personnel, but the Giants had the better coach. In this
    matchup, the Patriots have the better personnel *and* the better
    coach. Doesn't guarantee a victory, but it sure helps.


    Now, here's how the Giants *can* win the game:
    1. Pressure Brady with their front four. If you consistently blitz
    Brady, you'll get burned badly. But if you can drop 7 into coverage
    and get pressure with just four, now you're in business. Fortunately
    for the Giants, they are a team that generates tremendous pressure,
    especially from their defensive line. Light has trouble with speed
    guys, and Umenyiora is a speed guy. They don't have to sack Brady,
    but if they're constantly in his face, they can cause major problems.
    Their defense isn't a turnover-generating defense, but they can force
    bad throws and lots of incompletions. Maybe they can get a pick or
    two as well.


    2. Make sure Jacobs and Bradshaw run well. The Pats don't tend to get
    run over too often, but the Giants have the ability to pound away and
    get big plays from their running game. And once they have that going,
    they could hit the Pats with #3 below.


    3. Throw medium-to-deep in-cuts all day long. The Patriots seem to
    have lots of problems with these types of passes, and the Giants have
    three guys who can exploit this: Burress, Toomer, and Boss (a good
    receiver for a TE). I can envision lots of play-action to Jacobs and
    Bradshaw, leading to 13-16 yard in patterns to these guys. I can
    envision big chunks of yardage carved up by Eli if he has time to
    throw.


    4. Get a big special teams play. Hixson averaged 24.8 yards a return,
    and we all remember the TD he scored against the Patriots the last
    time they met. You can never count on special teams touchdowns, but
    it would be huge if the Giants could get one of those. If not a TD,
    at least a big return or two to get deep into New England territory.


    5. Win the turnover battle. If the Giants force a Brady pick and
    maybe get a Faulk fumble, and manage to hold onto the ball themselves,
    they can alter field position or maybe even get a defensive score.
    Again, you can't count on these things, but given how Eli has played
    (turnover-free), I can imagine New York winning the turnover battle.


    If those things happen, the Giants can win a game something like 31-30
    or 30-27. Even if everything goes right for them, I cannot imagine a
    Giants blowout win. I *can* imagine a blowout Patriots win, but I
    think the most likely scenario is a Patriots win between 3 and 10
    points.


    Therefore, my official prediction is this: Patriots 31, Giants 24.


    (also posted in the Patriots newsgroup: a.s.f.p.n)
  2. QuinielaBox

    QuinielaBox Rookie

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    Good Analysis - on the Celticsblog, I'd give you a tommy point.

    I think the Patriots will get seperation in the 1st half this year and the 2nd half will be like watching Tiger Woods play the back nine of a major with a 6 stroke lead over a strong golfer like Davis Love.

    I picked 34-18, with the Giants picking up a late score and a 2 point conversion to make the score look respectable.

    Patriots best effort beats everyone elses best effort this year.
  3. oldskool138

    oldskool138 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

  4. NYCPatsFan

    NYCPatsFan Rookie

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    No Jersey Selected

  5. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Good thoughts but you need to add "Good Red Zone Play" for the NYG both on offense and defense. Without it, on both sides of the ball, they are dead.
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