How ridiculous is the whole undefeated talk at this point?

[NYPatsFan]

I just heard a stat on NFL Network that 23 teams in NFL history have been undefeated at this point in the season. If the Pats win tonight, they will be the 19th team to be undefeated after 10 games.

The media is unbelievable. They've been hyping the undefeated season for so long now, you forget how many other teams have made it to this point without dropping a game.

It's a good thing the Pats have the "one game at a time" mentality. Otherwise the constant media attention would doom them.

 

[italian pat patriot]

anyway i'm excited to see our beloved Pats undefeated...i admit it...

but now let's concentrate only on Buffalo: one game at a time !

 

[Pats726]

They did start early Tomase..**hole that he is started the talk way way early..KNOWING how much the hype will be, I think Patriot fans wish to dimisnish it, lessen the pressure and look at one game at a time. I know there have been many other teams to this point..nothing at all special...and what is interesting is that from here on in, EACH team will be wishing to take a whack at the Pats to prevent it...so in effect, it's almost like every game is like a playoff game. BUT that is OK..it revs the team up for teh January playoff run.

 

[bigdgp]

They did start early Tomase..**hole that he is started the talk way way early..KNOWING how much the hype will be, I think Patriot fans wish to dimisnish it, lessen the pressure and look at one game at a time. I know there have been many other teams to this point..nothing at all special...and what is interesting is that from here on in, EACH team will be wishing to take a whack at the Pats to prevent it...so in effect, it's almost like every game is like a playoff game. BUT that is OK..it revs the team up for teh January playoff run.

The only things being overblown about this is the possibility of it not happening and that it's such a big deal. It wasn't long ago we won 21 games in a row.

 

[Rainy-Day Patriot]

Fans will be fans. Media will be media.
Undefeated talk is ridiculous, but so are the fans and the media.

I don't talk about the Pats going undefeated, but it's because I think they are destined to go undefeated, but, if I talk about it, I'll jinx it. If that's not ridiculous, I don't know what is.

Let's say, even though I think it is an overestimate, the Pats have on average a 90% chance of winning each of their remaining seven games. That still puts them at less than a 50% chance of going undefeated. This is math, plain and simple. Unless I crunched the numbers wrong (which is always a possibility), this is inarguable. Of course, we can argue about the 90% premise. I think 90% is liberal, but you may disagree, and neither of us can say for sure. Whatever average percentage you believe, turn it into decimal form and put it to the power of seven, and see what you get. That's the rational schmational thing to do.

Final analysis:
We don't need no stinking rational!

 

[PatsFanInVa]

For me the whole undefeated thing hinges on two factors:

- how good are we at beating teams we should beat (actually, pretty good over the years, due -- one would think -- to the "one game at a time mentality"),

and

- How many points do you ascribe to the officiating in the RCA Dome?

The second question is the key to where we stand against the best of the rest. I think it's being generous to say the Colts got 1 TD worth out of the officiating. It was definitely to the point where we threw the ball, and a flag went up. Maybe I'm wrong.

If you call it 7 points for the refs in that game, that "makes us" 11 points better than the closest team we've faced.

Of course you can't go by that, because they might send the refs out to do a hatchet job at any remaining game (for example, Pittsburgh.) If that is not the case, however, I'd say yes, we're at the 50% mark at this point.

9 down, 7 to go, in the regular season, that is.

PFnV

 

[NEPatriot]

While the possibility is out there, there's so much media that they have to fill the air and pages with something. I personally try to enjoy the journey and not focus on the destination. It reminds me of all of the "are we greatest dynasty ever" talk.

 

[vyrago]

Totally. So let's stop talking about it.

 

[Rainy-Day Patriot]

Argh! My math is wrong. Averaging the likely probabilities of the next seven games provides an overestimate compared with finding the probability for each game and multiplying them all together.

Suppose there are two remaining games. One with an 85% chance of our winning. The other with a 95% chance of our winning. The average is 90%.

However, 0.90*0.90 does not equal 0.85*0.95.

0.90*0.90=0.81
0.85*0.95=0.8075

Note to self: Take a course in probability to understand why!
Intuitively, the likelihood of two independent events both happening is
less
when one event has a 100% chance and the other has a 0% chance
than
when both events have a 50% chance.

My overall point is actually stronger. Yippy skippy for me! This blind pig stumbled across a truffle.

 

[BelichickFan]

Sure, it's too early considering we aren't even halfway there. However few teams have ever looked this good getting to 9-0 which is why it's difficult not to think about.

 

[aluminum seats]

It's not ridiculous to talk about at all. It's being generated by what's on the field--a terrific team that has absolutely crushed the opposition, a team that clearly is on a mission to obliterate everything in its path. Add to that the fact that after today the team only has 2 road games--one of which is the last game of the season, and a few games that logically should present little to no challenge.

Ridiculous? No. It's fascinating what's happening. Bring it on.

 

[RodRustsGhost]

Intuitively, the likelihood of two independent events both happening is
less
when one event has a 100% chance and the other has a 0% chance
than
when both events have a 50% chance.

My overall point is actually stronger. Yippy skippy for me! This blind pig stumbled across a truffle.

0% chance ... first of all there are very few things with that

but... anytime you play with zero, then you're going to get 0.

100 x 0 - 0

.50x .50 = .25

there is no addition in probability, it's all multiples.

you don't add and divide. You multiple.

 

[Rainy-Day Patriot]

I was thinking of only an undefeated regular season, but if we are talking about an undefeated season (which is all that really matters, right?), then we have 10 games to go.

That means we would have less than a 50% chance of going undefeated even if we had a 93% chance of winning each game.

Sheesh. I don't think we have a 93% chance of winning tonight's game!
Divisionality is a great equalizer in the NFL. I'm not sure if it's the familiarity or the emotions, but when division rivals play, the probability of winning is pulled toward 50% for the proverbially better team on paper.

In other words, I'm looking forward to the game. I'm not planning on humble pie for breakfast, but I'm not counting it out either.

 

[Rainy-Day Patriot]

0% chance ... first of all there are very few things with that

but... anytime you play with zero, then you're going to get 0.

100 x 0 - 0

.50x .50 = .25

there is no addition in probability, it's all multiples.

you don't add and divide. You multiple.

I think we are on the same page here. I meant to be stating the obvious. That's why I couched the sentence with "Intuitively,..." When clearing up confusions (in his case my confusion), it's often helpful to invoke extreme example, hence, the zero.

Here's my question. Does using the average probability, as I do in my original attempt, always overestimate? Empirically, it seems to in the limited range under discussion.

 

[kriskanos]

I just heard a stat on NFL Network that 23 teams in NFL history have been undefeated at this point in the season. If the Pats win tonight, they will be the 19th team to be undefeated after 10 games.

The media is unbelievable. They've been hyping the undefeated season for so long now, you forget how many other teams have made it to this point without dropping a game.

It's a good thing the Pats have the "one game at a time" mentality. Otherwise the constant media attention would doom them.

The hype is not about what we have done but what it has been evident for a long time what we are capable of doing. To me and you its like talking about a no hitter in the fifth inning. We dont want to jinx it. But lets face it the media doesnt care about the Pats(especially our local scribes). If the Pats lose they will write columns saying the Pats are overrated when they are the raters. I root from week to week and build up a hate during the week of our next opponent. I go to the opponents forums and just read, so I'm not thinking 19-0 I'm thinking "Lets beat these sons of w@@@@s sunday.

 

[RodThePat]

I don't think it's ridiculous at all. The league has never seen such a gap between one team and the rest of it's competitors. These Patriots are good enough to warrant the "undefeated talk" 9 games into the season, considering the way in which they abused every oponent on the way.

Also bear in mind that this is the most successful team of the decade, with arguably the best coach and QB in the league and a whole bunch of veteran players that had a hand in building this ongoing dynasty. If the 89 49ers started the season 9-0 they would warrant the same talk. It's a normal reaction towards a never before seen level of dominance.

 

[mcbee]

I think we are on the same page here. I meant to be stating the obvious. That's why I couched the sentence with "Intuitively,..." When clearing up confusions (in his case my confusion), it's often helpful to invoke extreme example, hence, the zero.

Here's my question. Does using the average probability, as I do in my original attempt, always overestimate? Empirically, it seems to in the limited range under discussion.

I believe it does.

If you assume average win rate is x% (ie 90%)

then the total win rate for two games is (1-x)*(1-y), where x+y = 20%

So (1-x)*(1-.2+x) = win rate = x-.8x-x^2

taking the derivative to find min/maxes
d (win rate)/ dx = .2x -2x = 0
x = .1

So the maximum "total win %" occurs at x=.1

There is probably a more intuitive way to see this too.

 

[Skree]

Teams have a 1% chance of getting to 10-0
A .7% chance of going 11-0.

It isn't easy.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

All this stats talk is too much. I think of it in baseball terms.

Can they get to 16-0 and give themselves a chance? It's like working on a no hitter with in the sixth inning, right now. That is, it's almost time to start getting excited. At the same time, though, you still need to get 10 or 11 more outs in a row. That's really hard to do. But it's actually something that happens fairly frequently -- much more frequently than a no hitter. So it's almost time to get excited.

Winning seven games in a row in the NFL is really hard, but it happens. Every year, you'll have a few teams that go on seven game streaks in the NFL.

That's what the Patriots need to do right now. They don't need to win 16 in a row. They need a seven game winning streak, just like that pitcher who needs 10 or 11 outs to close out the no no.

 

[strongside]

I just heard a stat on NFL Network that 23 teams in NFL history have been undefeated at this point in the season. If the Pats win tonight, they will be the 19th team to be undefeated after 10 games.

The media is unbelievable. They've been hyping the undefeated season for so long now, you forget how many other teams have made it to this point without dropping a game.

It's a good thing the Pats have the "one game at a time" mentality. Otherwise the constant media attention would doom them.

Just looking at Buffalo