Welcome to PatsFans.com

How ridiculous is the whole undefeated talk at this point?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by NYPatsFan, Nov 18, 2007.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. NYPatsFan

    NYPatsFan Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2005
    Messages:
    344
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I just heard a stat on NFL Network that 23 teams in NFL history have been undefeated at this point in the season. If the Pats win tonight, they will be the 19th team to be undefeated after 10 games.

    The media is unbelievable. They've been hyping the undefeated season for so long now, you forget how many other teams have made it to this point without dropping a game.

    It's a good thing the Pats have the "one game at a time" mentality. Otherwise the constant media attention would doom them.
  2. italian pat patriot

    italian pat patriot Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    3,939
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    #12 Jersey
    anyway i'm excited to see our beloved Pats undefeated...i admit it...

    but now let's concentrate only on Buffalo: one game at a time !
  3. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    9,800
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +8 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    They did start early Tomase..**hole that he is started the talk way way early..KNOWING how much the hype will be, I think Patriot fans wish to dimisnish it, lessen the pressure and look at one game at a time. I know there have been many other teams to this point..nothing at all special...and what is interesting is that from here on in, EACH team will be wishing to take a whack at the Pats to prevent it...so in effect, it's almost like every game is like a playoff game. BUT that is OK..it revs the team up for teh January playoff run.
  4. bigdgp

    bigdgp Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2005
    Messages:
    159
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    The only things being overblown about this is the possibility of it not happening and that it's such a big deal. It wasn't long ago we won 21 games in a row.
  5. Rainy-Day Patriot

    Rainy-Day Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2004
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Fans will be fans. Media will be media.
    Undefeated talk is ridiculous, but so are the fans and the media.

    I don't talk about the Pats going undefeated, but it's because I think they are destined to go undefeated, but, if I talk about it, I'll jinx it. If that's not ridiculous, I don't know what is.

    Let's say, even though I think it is an overestimate, the Pats have on average a 90% chance of winning each of their remaining seven games. That still puts them at less than a 50% chance of going undefeated. This is math, plain and simple. Unless I crunched the numbers wrong (which is always a possibility), this is inarguable. Of course, we can argue about the 90% premise. I think 90% is liberal, but you may disagree, and neither of us can say for sure. Whatever average percentage you believe, turn it into decimal form and put it to the power of seven, and see what you get. That's the rational schmational thing to do.

    Final analysis:
    We don't need no stinking rational!
  6. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,527
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    My Jersey:

    For me the whole undefeated thing hinges on two factors:

    - how good are we at beating teams we should beat (actually, pretty good over the years, due -- one would think -- to the "one game at a time mentality"),

    and

    - How many points do you ascribe to the officiating in the RCA Dome?

    The second question is the key to where we stand against the best of the rest. I think it's being generous to say the Colts got 1 TD worth out of the officiating. It was definitely to the point where we threw the ball, and a flag went up. Maybe I'm wrong.

    If you call it 7 points for the refs in that game, that "makes us" 11 points better than the closest team we've faced.

    Of course you can't go by that, because they might send the refs out to do a hatchet job at any remaining game (for example, Pittsburgh.) If that is not the case, however, I'd say yes, we're at the 50% mark at this point.

    9 down, 7 to go, in the regular season, that is.

    PFnV
  7. NEPatriot

    NEPatriot Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2004
    Messages:
    7,839
    Likes Received:
    11
    Ratings:
    +11 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    While the possibility is out there, there's so much media that they have to fill the air and pages with something. I personally try to enjoy the journey and not focus on the destination. It reminds me of all of the "are we greatest dynasty ever" talk.
  8. vyrago

    vyrago Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2006
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Totally. So let's stop talking about it.
  9. Rainy-Day Patriot

    Rainy-Day Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2004
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Argh! My math is wrong. Averaging the likely probabilities of the next seven games provides an overestimate compared with finding the probability for each game and multiplying them all together.

    Suppose there are two remaining games. One with an 85% chance of our winning. The other with a 95% chance of our winning. The average is 90%.

    However, 0.90*0.90 does not equal 0.85*0.95.

    0.90*0.90=0.81
    0.85*0.95=0.8075

    Note to self: Take a course in probability to understand why!
    Intuitively, the likelihood of two independent events both happening is
    less
    when one event has a 100% chance and the other has a 0% chance
    than
    when both events have a 50% chance.

    My overall point is actually stronger. Yippy skippy for me! This blind pig stumbled across a truffle.
  10. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,088
    Likes Received:
    29
    Ratings:
    +37 / 2 / -3

    My Jersey:

    #24 Jersey
    Sure, it's too early considering we aren't even halfway there. However few teams have ever looked this good getting to 9-0 which is why it's difficult not to think about.
  11. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2006
    Messages:
    2,419
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    It's not ridiculous to talk about at all. It's being generated by what's on the field--a terrific team that has absolutely crushed the opposition, a team that clearly is on a mission to obliterate everything in its path. Add to that the fact that after today the team only has 2 road games--one of which is the last game of the season, and a few games that logically should present little to no challenge.

    Ridiculous? No. It's fascinating what's happening. Bring it on.
  12. RodRustsGhost

    RodRustsGhost Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2006
    Messages:
    109
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    0% chance ... first of all there are very few things with that

    but... anytime you play with zero, then you're going to get 0.

    100 x 0 - 0

    .50x .50 = .25

    there is no addition in probability, it's all multiples.

    you don't add and divide. You multiple.
  13. Rainy-Day Patriot

    Rainy-Day Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2004
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I was thinking of only an undefeated regular season, but if we are talking about an undefeated season (which is all that really matters, right?), then we have 10 games to go.

    That means we would have less than a 50% chance of going undefeated even if we had a 93% chance of winning each game.

    Sheesh. I don't think we have a 93% chance of winning tonight's game!
    Divisionality is a great equalizer in the NFL. I'm not sure if it's the familiarity or the emotions, but when division rivals play, the probability of winning is pulled toward 50% for the proverbially better team on paper.

    In other words, I'm looking forward to the game. I'm not planning on humble pie for breakfast, but I'm not counting it out either.
  14. Rainy-Day Patriot

    Rainy-Day Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2004
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I think we are on the same page here. I meant to be stating the obvious. That's why I couched the sentence with "Intuitively,..." When clearing up confusions (in his case my confusion), it's often helpful to invoke extreme example, hence, the zero.

    Here's my question. Does using the average probability, as I do in my original attempt, always overestimate? Empirically, it seems to in the limited range under discussion.
  15. kriskanos

    kriskanos Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2007
    Messages:
    366
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    The hype is not about what we have done but what it has been evident for a long time what we are capable of doing. To me and you its like talking about a no hitter in the fifth inning. We dont want to jinx it. But lets face it the media doesnt care about the Pats(especially our local scribes). If the Pats lose they will write columns saying the Pats are overrated when they are the raters. I root from week to week and build up a hate during the week of our next opponent. I go to the opponents forums and just read, so I'm not thinking 19-0 I'm thinking "Lets beat these sons of w@@@@s sunday.
  16. RodThePat

    RodThePat Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2007
    Messages:
    2,240
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I don't think it's ridiculous at all. The league has never seen such a gap between one team and the rest of it's competitors. These Patriots are good enough to warrant the "undefeated talk" 9 games into the season, considering the way in which they abused every oponent on the way.

    Also bear in mind that this is the most successful team of the decade, with arguably the best coach and QB in the league and a whole bunch of veteran players that had a hand in building this ongoing dynasty. If the 89 49ers started the season 9-0 they would warrant the same talk. It's a normal reaction towards a never before seen level of dominance.
  17. mcbee

    mcbee Banned

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2006
    Messages:
    1,078
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I believe it does.

    If you assume average win rate is x% (ie 90%)

    then the total win rate for two games is (1-x)*(1-y), where x+y = 20%

    So (1-x)*(1-.2+x) = win rate = x-.8x-x^2

    taking the derivative to find min/maxes
    d (win rate)/ dx = .2x -2x = 0
    x = .1

    So the maximum "total win %" occurs at x=.1

    There is probably a more intuitive way to see this too.
  18. Skree

    Skree Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2007
    Messages:
    867
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Teams have a 1% chance of getting to 10-0
    A .7% chance of going 11-0.

    It isn't easy.
  19. PatsFaninAZ

    PatsFaninAZ Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2006
    Messages:
    4,097
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    All this stats talk is too much. I think of it in baseball terms.

    Can they get to 16-0 and give themselves a chance? It's like working on a no hitter with in the sixth inning, right now. That is, it's almost time to start getting excited. At the same time, though, you still need to get 10 or 11 more outs in a row. That's really hard to do. But it's actually something that happens fairly frequently -- much more frequently than a no hitter. So it's almost time to get excited.

    Winning seven games in a row in the NFL is really hard, but it happens. Every year, you'll have a few teams that go on seven game streaks in the NFL.

    That's what the Patriots need to do right now. They don't need to win 16 in a row. They need a seven game winning streak, just like that pitcher who needs 10 or 11 outs to close out the no no.
  20. strongside

    strongside Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2007
    Messages:
    576
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Just looking at Buffalo
  21. Zeus

    Zeus PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2007
    Messages:
    942
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Talk of an undefeated season when the team is barely halfway through the schedule is absurd. And as long as they win enough to secure home field throughout the playoffs, it really doesn't matter all that much to me whether they are 14-2 or 16-0.

    What is really important is they continue to improve as the season goes on. The great Belichick teams have played their best football in December and January (also undefeated in February!). As well as this team has played so far, I believe they can - and will - play even better. We haven't seen their best game yet.
  22. Absurdly Metro

    Absurdly Metro Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2007
    Messages:
    503
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Great point PFnV! You're not wrong about those flags. And I'm not feeling as generous as you are this morning either. So off the top of my head I count 13 points for Indy directly attributed to the officials. They are:

    1. 1st Q: Ticky tack 37yd PI call on Samuel = 3 points (would have been 7 if Asante doesn't make up for the penalty with a strip of Gonzalez in the EZ to force the FG)
    2. 2nd Q: Absolutely bogus 40 yd PI on Hobbs = 3 points
    3. 2nd Q: No call on block in the back on Addai's 73 yd. "dump off" = 7 points

    This is not to mention the other penalties (Moss offensive PI in EZ) that aided and abetted the Colts in the attempt to pilfer this game away from NE.

    An evenly called game sees the Pats win by at least 10. And this is on the road, with no coach to QB communication, questionable decibal levels, one-sided officiating, vs. the undefeated defending sb champs who are clearly the 2nd best team the league has to offer. If the Pats are 10+ better than all THAT I don't know how you can't like our chances for a run at history.
  23. Rainy-Day Patriot

    Rainy-Day Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2004
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I love this explanation. Now, I'm trying to understand it. (I'm taking calculus for the first time at the age of 32, so please bear with me, while this old dog is trying to learning new tricks.)

    f(x) = (1-x)*(1-(.2-x)) ?==> Doesn't y =.2-x
    = (1-x)*(-.2+x)
    = (-.2+x+.2x-x^2)
    = (-.2 + 1.2x -x^2)
    f'(x) = 1.2 -2x
    The root of the derivative is x=.6 which means that f(.6) is a local max.

    How do you interpret the slope of the tangent lines to f(x)? Is it the instantaneous rate of change of the total probability of winning both Game A and Game B as the probability for Game A changes, assuming the average probability for Game A and Game B is 80%? In English?

    Sean :)
  24. Rainy-Day Patriot

    Rainy-Day Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2004
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Argh! Stupid calculation error!
    Of course:
    f(x) = (1-x)*(1-(.2-x)) ?==> Doesn't y =.2-x
    f(x) = (1-x)*(1-.2+x)
    f(x) = 1-.2+x-x+.2x-x^2
    f(x) = .8+.2x-x^2

    f'(x) = .2-2x

    That's right, now, isn't it?
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2007
  25. Absurdly Metro

    Absurdly Metro Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2007
    Messages:
    503
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Simple question? Are you looking at this team as a team of the ages? If not then you should be afraid--be very afraid--of messrs JP Losman and Co. tonight. But for those of us drinking the koolaid and buying into the notion that what we're seeing is a run by (what will one day be looked back on as) the greatest team of all time--then it's party time brethren!

    Does it make you like our chances any better to realize that the Pats have won 8 straight meetings vs. Buffalo dating back to the "they hate their coach" game in Sept of '03? Eight straight! What were the chances of THAT happening? They have done this with far less talent and drive on the field than this year's edition has demonstrated. Yes, I know, "on any given Sunday" and yada, yada, yada..." But I just can't find it in me to worry about tonight's game. Barring fluke or injury this Pats team walks all over the Bills. If they truly have a date with destiny it can't happen any other way.

    :D
  26. Rainy-Day Patriot

    Rainy-Day Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2004
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I see now. The typo threw me off track, but it was obviously just a typo since your root is right.

    When we do the averaging method, the max total win percentage occurs when all the probabilities are exactly equally. As they diverge, which they surely do, our estimate becomes an overestimate.
    Awesome! Thank you.
  27. Rainy-Day Patriot

    Rainy-Day Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2004
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I just think that, especially for divisional games, the any-given-Sunday factor is greater than 7%. It's just a gut feeling. Knowing that there's a 93% chance of rain means that I'm 100% sure that I should bring an umbrella!

    "Barring fluke or injury this Pats team walks all over the Bills."
    I could not agree more. All I am saying is that there is a +7% chance (in my subjective opinion) of a fluke or injury.
  28. Absurdly Metro

    Absurdly Metro Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2007
    Messages:
    503
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    And all I'm saying is drink more koolaid! Let go of your doubts and believe in this teams destiny; the greatest single season in the history of the NFL. Undisputed, undefeated SB champions. This will mean being willing to abandon your ironclad logic (as above) for what some will deem folly and even madness.

    Of course, along with this believe at all costs mentality comes the inherent risk of looking stupid, eating crow, and feeling like you've been gutted through the nether regions with a dull blade, should the impossible happen and the dream season come up short. All of this is but a small price to pay for the opportunity to completely believe, without reservation, that this is THE team that shall conquer and vanquish every obstacle in it's path during its relentless assault on perfection. And I do mean EVERY obstacle... every opponent, every bad call, every scandal, every injury, every fluke--nothing in the whole of the heavens or on the earth can stand between us and history.

    So repeat after me... There is no chance of anything but victory. Embrace it my brother and welcome to the lunatic frindge. More koolaids all around!

    :eat2:
  29. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2004
    Messages:
    9,798
    Likes Received:
    21
    Ratings:
    +24 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Yes - and and I'm sure most of those 19 teams would routinely beat their opponents by an average score of 24 points - futher illustrating that the Patriots are really nothing special. ;)

    C'mon - we all know that there's plenty of teams to have started 10-0...

    And we also know that the NFL hasn't seen this sort of dominant team in, well, maybe ever...

    And when one looks at the remaining schedule and recognizes that this team is beating opponents by more than 3 touchdowns on average, one can't help but understand the odds of the team remaining undefeated is better than the chance its going to lose.

    In other words - which game do YOU think the Patriots are going to be underdogs in? Do you think the Las Vegas oddsmakers are going to have them as underdogs in any of the remainig games?

    And if you don't think they'll be underdogs in any games, why do you think its so rediculous to be considering the possibility of a perfect season?

    Talking about things like this is what fans and media do - don't try to stop it or chide people because of it. Is it rediculous to be talking about the Dolphins going 0-16? Of course not. Come down off your high horse and join us - it's fun!
  30. Absurdly Metro

    Absurdly Metro Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2007
    Messages:
    503
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Amen brother Joe!! Testify!!!
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page