How much draft work has been done - and what's Pioli allowed to take with him?

[SunnyDenmark]

I remmember reading that at this time of year (the date Pioli left mid-Jan) that for most teams basically all the senior scouting had been done as bowls are all completed sans Senior bowl- that only thing was left was to 'fill in the remaining info' about combine results, interview and Wonderlic results, etc. The big thing remaining that was to be done before the combine was to go through all the game tape and scouting notes of the underclassmen that had declared for the draft - because you never know who will be declaring.

So much of the draft work left to be done -now minus Pioli - will be directed to those 46 draft eligible underclassmen. Some of that is analyzing game tape.

But the one good news about all this (minus Pioli) is that Bill does not have to concentrate on playoffs and instead can spend more time on the personnel & draft (& replacement coaches) situation instead of game prep. And as you all know - he was at the Senior Bowl scouting players as well which he normally can't do if Pats are in the playoffs.

P.S. I know someone will respond that the Juniors are scouted years before but still have to spend considerable time on those (just declared) 46 to exhaustively break done their game tape and analyze their whole collegiate career as now it is at an end. And you don't do that until AFTER the January 15 deadline and the official list comes out. So this will be done minus Pioli.

 

[GroganCountry]

I don't believe that Pioli would have taken anything with him other than what he remembers. It will be interesting to see if Pioli hires a lot of scouts for the Chiefs and has them form their own scouting department going forward or if he falls back to using the services.

I don't think he would make a mad dash for the copy room either. I'm just saying the guy must have plenty of player evaluation information in his mind and probably even some outside of the office. I know that most info can't leave Pats HQ, but if a guy is going on numerous scouting trips, he is going to be privy to plenty of info outside of his office.

 

[mgteich]

1) Pioli cannot show any materials/notes to anyone. All materials produced by the scouting services paid for by the patriots belongs to the patriots. Some here have posted that this information is useless. That is utter nonsense. The patriots have paid a lot of money for scouting materials, and analysis, that are not available to others. Only a few teams do this; the rest are part of scouting combines with joint information.

2) Pioli will do nothing illegal. However, he does have a memory. He will know if a particular player has been ruled out, downgraded or upgraded, by patriot sources. He will use his information, his background, his knowledge, all his skills, for the benefit of his new team. The patriots have given away their scouting materials with no compensation. I would suggest that they approach Kansas City with a proposal to provide the rest of the material produced through the day Pioli left.

3) Surely, as KC prepares its draft board for its second and third picks, Pioli will have input based on memories of information provided from patriot sources.

 

[patchick]

It's a good thing the Chiefs and Patriots don't have selections close to each other, even if they do have differing needs.

IMO, those comforts only take you through the top couple of rounds of a long draft. The real conflicts are likely to arise from Pioli having the same lineup of sleepers in mind -- the same day-2 guys who have been underrated or overlooked -- and simply knowing that a guy is on the Pats radar so if Pioli wants him he'd better strike first.

For instance, in 2005 a few teams had circled Matt Cassel's name as an intriguing UDFA, but only the Pats showed the imagination to use an actual pick on him. What if another GM had known their plans?

Or let's say KC & the Pats were both in need of a punter this year, and both rated Thomas Morstead far above all other prospects. How valuable would it be for KC to know what pick the Pats thought he was worth?

 

[Synovia]

Assuming he didn't take all the scouts in the scouting dept., the Pats will still have a wealth of information from this last year. I'm assuming the scouts had meet with him in December to run over their overall assessments in specific on-the-field categories and have submitted their interview info from individuals close to a great number of prospects.

The measurables from last year's juniors should had been recorded after each pro-day, so they have some info already set aside somewhere. Of course that will all be re-evaluated after these all star games, pro days and the combine.
.

I don't see why we would even worry about this stuff. The measurables are all freely available info. The one thing we're losing thats valuable is his opinion. Tape of college players is freely available.


I don't see how a lot of it would be that valuable to the chiefs though. Pioli has always preached system based drafting, and I have a hard time thinking that the Chiefs are going to run the same system as the Pats. For most positions, they'd be looking at players with different talents.

 

[Synovia]

IMO, those comforts only take you through the top couple of rounds of a long draft. The real conflicts are likely to arise from Pioli having the same lineup of sleepers in mind -- the same day-2 guys who have been underrated or overlooked -- and simply knowing that a guy is on the Pats radar so if Pioli wants him he'd better strike first

Right, but a sleeper/value pick in the 5th round isn't necessarily a good pick if you grab him in the 4th to keep another team grabbing him.

 

[borg]

Hopefully Pioli took all his second round ideas with him

 

[patchick]

Right, but a sleeper/value pick in the 5th round isn't necessarily a good pick if you grab him in the 4th to keep another team grabbing him.

The difference between a 4th and a 5th or between a 5th and a 6th is vastly overrated, IMO. Every team's boards look very different by that point. And with sleepers, punters, etc. the strategic calculation is only partly about value; partly it's a game of chicken. IOW, it's not just what he's worth to you, it's how long you think you can get away with waiting.

More concretely, the Pats will have some compensatory picks at the ends of rounds that will find them picking just a few slots ahead of KC. It's not hard to picture a situation where they say "I know this TE is a little raw, but I think we'd better take him with the 3rd round comp pick rather than waiting, because Scott loved that kid and still needs a TE."

 

[ctpatsfan77]

For instance, in 2005 a few teams had circled Matt Cassel's name as an intriguing UDFA, but only the Pats showed the imagination to use an actual pick on him. What if another GM had known their plans?

I'll take that one step further: the Titans and Bengals had USC people who knew Cassel could play. If, for some reason, the Pats hadn't drafted him, I think he would have ended up with one of those teams unless some third party made him an incredible offer (e.g., $500K signing bonus--which is unlikely, since UDFA SBs do count as part of the rookie salary cap, whereas their actual salaries don't).

 

[fester]

From my understanding of the process, most of the 2009 draft work has already been accomplished in that basic profiles of players have been constructed over the course of two or three years of tracking the different college teams and following up on a hot prospect that flashed a bit in the 2007 season during the 2008 season. At this point, the big draft project is 'stacking' the board where players have to be slotted out --- who is the #3 v #4 Patriots running back and how do those players fit in compared to the #11 CB and the #2 OG for the Patriots system. The combine and individual work-outs are used for the stack process, but the in-season scouting and evaluation gives the Pats a rough target list from which they chop down.

Obviously Pioli left here on the best of terms and with Belichick's blessing.

That said, I was wondering if anyone had any insights on how much pre-draft work is typically accomplished at this time of year, and what preliminary decisions have been made, seeing as the organization has a full college season of scouting under their belts.

 

[mayoclinic]

From my understanding of the process, most of the 2009 draft work has already been accomplished in that basic profiles of players have been constructed over the course of two or three years of tracking the different college teams and following up on a hot prospect that flashed a bit in the 2007 season during the 2008 season. At this point, the big draft project is 'stacking' the board where players have to be slotted out --- who is the #3 v #4 Patriots running back and how do those players fit in compared to the #11 CB and the #2 OG for the Patriots system. The combine and individual work-outs are used for the stack process, but the in-season scouting and evaluation gives the Pats a rough target list from which they chop down.

I think Pioli will have more than enough work to do figuring out the Chief's personnel, schemes, to worry about our needs.

Besides, after pick #3 (which is out of our reach and which is too costly for our blood anyway) we always pick ahead of him. Think about it ... we pick 23, he picks 34; we pick 47 and 57, he picks 67; etc. So he should worry that we'll take the players he wants ahead of him.

 

[Ring 6]

Pioli doesn't even have a coach. His previous outlook on player personell was within BBs system. There is absolutely no way that Pioli will hire a HC and force BBs system on them.
Pioli has no investment in the system, and he should be able to be equally effective at his job regardless of what offense or defense the new HC will run.

Also, these posts are being written as if BB and Pioli share a brain. We have seen BBs picks with Pioli's input, relying on information and opinion coming from Pioli's department (scouts). There is absolutely no certainty that Pioli would have made the same, or even similar picks.

As far as the Cassell comments, I think its ridiculous to assume the success of Cassell was the drafting of Cassell.
"Seeing what he was" is so far from reality. The reality is that AFTER drafting him, he was coached up to be able to do the job. Anyone who thinks if the Bengals (one choice mentioned) had drafted him that he would have been as good in 2008 as he was by having spent his career in NE being coached by our coaching staff just doesnt understand the NFL. (Just as someone who thinks we could have drafted any QB with that pick and gotten the same result)

 

[patchick]

As far as the Cassell comments, I think its ridiculous to assume the success of Cassell was the drafting of Cassell.
"Seeing what he was" is so far from reality. The reality is that AFTER drafting him, he was coached up to be able to do the job. Anyone who thinks if the Bengals (one choice mentioned) had drafted him that he would have been as good in 2008 as he was by having spent his career in NE being coached by our coaching staff just doesnt understand the NFL. (Just as someone who thinks we could have drafted any QB with that pick and gotten the same result)

Absolutely. Which is why nobody has suggested anything of the sort.

I can't see a word in this thread about why Cassel succeeded, only words about the process that led him to become a Patriot -- a process that could be altered by Pioli (and perhaps McDaniels?) carrying knowledge of the Patriots' unique scouting reports on unheralded players to other organizations. I think you can argue that this is more of an issue for the Pats than it would be for other teams, because of the unusual nature of the NE scouting operation.

Realistically, though, we'll never have any clue whether the low-profile kid KC picks up in the 6th was chosen based on Pats research, Blesto, a hot tip from somebody's cousin, or what have you.

 

[Ring 6]

Absolutely. Which is why nobody has suggested anything of the sort.

I can't see a word in this thread about why Cassel succeeded, only words about the process that led him to become a Patriot -- a process that could be altered by Pioli (and perhaps McDaniels?) carrying knowledge of the Patriots' unique scouting reports on unheralded players to other organizations. I think you can argue that this is more of an issue for the Pats than it would be for other teams, because of the unusual nature of the NE scouting operation.

Realistically, though, we'll never have any clue whether the low-profile kid KC picks up in the 6th was chosen based on Pats research, Blesto, a hot tip from somebody's cousin, or what have you.

My point is that Cassells success is much, much more a function of what happened AFTER he was drafted than what led to him being drafted.

Pioli learned football from Belichick. It stands to reason that he will use picks in a somewhat similar fashion to how BB would. The impact on our franchse of Pioli making someone elses draft picks (as opposed to leaving for a job at the UN) will be less than the weather we get for playoff games.

 

[patchick]

Pioli learned football from Belichick. It stands to reason that he will use picks in a somewhat similar fashion to how BB would. The impact on our franchse of Pioli making someone elses draft picks (as opposed to leaving for a job at the UN) will be less than the weather we get for playoff games.

I'm a little confused by this argument. Aren't the blue and red halves of your paragraph in direct opposition to each other?

Certainly, the teams will have different needs and likely different systems to fit players to. But every competing executive who approaches the draft with a similar philosophy to the Patriots has to negatively affect the available pool of "Pats-type players." Simply looking for the same mental characteristics will lead to that. And of course, not every position is equally scheme-sensitive (e.g. kick returners).

Just to be clear, I'm not wringing my hands over this. KC is just one team out of 31. But given the choice, I'd definitely pick the UN as the destination for the man who led the Pats' personnel operation.

 

[DaBruinz]

I'm a little confused by this argument. Aren't the blue and red halves of your paragraph in direct opposition to each other?

Certainly, the teams will have different needs and likely different systems to fit players to. But every competing executive who approaches the draft with a similar philosophy to the Patriots has to negatively affect the available pool of "Pats-type players." Simply looking for the same mental characteristics will lead to that. And of course, not every position is equally scheme-sensitive (e.g. kick returners).

Just to be clear, I'm not wringing my hands over this. KC is just one team out of 31. But given the choice, I'd definitely pick the UN as the destination for the man who led the Pats' personnel operation.

I think what Andy is saying is that Pioli will use the picks to find the players that fit the system that the coach of the Chiefs wants to install.

People need to remember that not everyone is Belichick and so, not everyone, will be looking for guys that fit in the 3-4 2 gap system on defense and not everyone will be looking for the types of offensive players the Pats are looking for. There will be similarities in the intangibles that the teams look for, but I think that is as far as the similarities go.

I expect that the Chiefs will stay with the 4-3 on defense, looking to upgrade at DE, LB, CB. On offense, I expect them to look at a RB, WR, and TE.