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How many times have the #3 & #4 seed met in championship?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by tombonneau, Dec 29, 2009.

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  1. tombonneau

    tombonneau Rookie

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    I'm at work or I'd look it up myself, but going back the last 10 years, how many times have the 3/4 met in the championship.

    Because really when it comes to this weekend and "Do the Pats try for #3 or not?" it all boils down to the likelihood of that seeding mattering in a home championship game. My guess is it has happened 2-3 times in the last 10 years, so about 10% of championship games?
  2. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Conference championship or SB?
  3. PatsFanInMaine

    PatsFanInMaine Rookie

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    Pats/Colts 2006 AFC Championship.
  4. Tunescribe

    Tunescribe PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #61 Jersey

    I think he's mulling chances of the Pats hosting the AFCC. I'd like to know when/if that's happened as well (first two seeds getting eliminated early).
  5. pats1

    pats1 Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

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    ---3 division winners, 3 wild cards---
    2000-01: Giants (1) vs. Vikings (2); Raiders (2) vs. Ravens (4)
    2001-02: Rams (1) vs. Eagles (3); Steelers (1) vs. Patriots (2)

    ---4 division winners, 2 wild cards---
    2002-03: Eagles (1) vs. Bucs (2); Raiders (1) vs. Titans (2)
    2003-04: Eagles (1) vs. Panthers (3); Patriots (1) vs. Colts (3)
    2004-05: Eagles (1) vs. Falcons (2); Steelers (1) vs. Patriots (2)
    2005-06: Seahawks (1) vs. Panthers (5); Broncos (2) vs. Steelers (6)
    2006-07: Bears (1) vs. Saints (2); Colts (3) vs. Patriots (4)
    2007-08: Packers (2) vs. Giants (5); Patriots (1) vs. Chargers (3)
    2008-09: Cardinals (4) vs. Eagles (6); Steelers (2) vs. Ravens (6)
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2009
  6. dhamz

    dhamz Rookie

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    In 2006 the difference between 3 and 4 meant the Lombardi Trophy.
  7. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Of course. Too many X-Mas cookies..:p

    Looks like history says go for the 3 seed. Especially after 2006
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2009
  8. Sicilian

    Sicilian On the Roster

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    In short terms, as many 4 seeds have hosted the conference championship as have 3 seeds. One.
  9. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    How many SBs involved 2 #1 seeds?.......Easy answer is ZERO so Indy and N.O. is actually a longshot to meet in Miami,not sure about 3 and 4 though
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2009
  10. tombonneau

    tombonneau Rookie

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    And it looks like that was the only time in the last 10 years. So realistically only a 5% chance of it happening. Ironic that that was the only year it happened. :(

    Wonder if BB's memory is fresh enough that he won't chance it happening again. (Not that they took a dive in Week 17 that year.)
  11. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Probably still very debatable, especially considering Cincy would get the 3 if we rested starters, as they'd still have something to play for.

    If we ended up with the 4, and Cincy had the 3, it's not like going to Cincy would be half as bad as going to Indy was in 2006.

    I guess it just depends on who they would rather play, etc--vs whether or not we want to continue with the recent momentum or rest.
  12. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    I wasn't clear with my earlier post. I look at it only from the AFCCG view. If you are #3 and you win the Div game vs the #2 seed and #4 knocks off #1, you are home for the AFCCC. Thats all I'm saying.
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2009
  13. tombonneau

    tombonneau Rookie

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    I don't know, I think that 2006 game might linger enough in BB's mind that he goes for the #3. Certainly he'll have a defense if anyone questions his logic.

    I tweeted the stat to Reiss, hopefully he catches it and perhaps it becomes a nice subplot. Would love for someone to directly ask BB about it.
  14. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And that's a great point too, It'd be great to come back from SD to realize we're actually hosting the AFCCG.

    I expect Belichick to weigh out the various scenarios etc, and certainly trust him to make the best descision of course.
  15. Poker

    Poker Rookie

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    Only once as you see. But also once in that time span, the #4 seed hosted the confrence championship as well (Cardinals 2008). Admittedly this latter scenario is only half as likely to happen, as it requires one extra game to go in your favor if you're the #4 seed, as you need the 6 seed to win twice while you win twice. If you're the #3 seed, assuming you beat #6 and #2, you just need the winner of #4/#5 to beat #1 to host the conference championship.

    All things taken into account, I think Belichick goes for the victory Sunday in TX. It's best for momentum; the teams needs the reps and work; it preserves the best shot at the #3 seed, which the above analysis shows is twice as likely as #4 to host the AFCC game; and I don't think Belichick sees a huge difference between going to SD and going to Indy in the Divisional round.
  16. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Yep- you nailed it. Unless there is a matchup you want to avoid, you go for the higher seed (while monitoring the health of the players and managing the risk.)

    If you recall, they flew out early for SD in 06. I think it was on a Wednesday afternoon.
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