How long is the Pat's offer left on the table?

[GoWesleyan]

I really doubt that either side is too worked up about this situation. It's just business and they are playing out their hands. Not real big stakes from the Pat's side as I see it - a holdout for 10 games is not big deal to them. Nor to Deion... as long as the Pat's offer is still available.

I don't really mind Branch sitting out for 10 weeks. We'll make the playoffs anyhow and I want him to be healthy for the post season. 6 reg season games is more than enough to get the timing back and we would have a better chance of having him healthy for the season. He can't afford to dog it or else he'll get a reputation and his FA value goes down. What a nice infusion it would be to get him for the stretch and post season, we could add new wrinkles to the offense on which there would be no film for the opponents to study, etc. His sitting out wouldn't be that bad at all, IMHO

There's no real downside to the holdout from Branch's perspective either if he thinks he can get the Pat's to extend him at the original offer amount at any point. If that's the case, why wouldn't he hold out? At worst, he's paying $1 million to avoid 10 games that could reduce his ability to get a big contract next year.

Branch's history shows that he is a fragile dude, so that might be a good bargain.. He's established the credentials to get a big payday, and he's trying to make damn sure that he has a chance to grab that brass ring. He could do that by extending now, but there is little downside to trying to play out the hand. He seems to think that the Pat's offer is low by roughly $10 million compared to the open market. Maybe this gambit only nets him $2 million (or maybe none at all) but why not try? If he thinks he can get the extension later on, what is the downside of this holdout? It's doubtful that it effects his value as a free agent and the fine amounts are insignificant compared to the potential payoff.

The one option that does not make fiinancial sense for Deion is to play this year for $1 Million. The risk of injury that precludes the big payoff is too great. In Deion's case, even a small injury (3-4 games) hurts his market price considerably since it establishes a pattern of injury not befitting a top-tier paycheck. Or what if he just has an off year? Maybe he doesn't want to risk the current reputation he has (in terms of performance).

Option 1 - Extend
Come in and play. What was the offer? 5 years $31 Million? How much guaranteed? 8-9 Million? (Please correct me on this)

Option 2 -
Sit out till game 10. Roughly no pay this year. Either franchised next year or hit FA. Avoid 10 games when you could get a career ending injury.

Of those two option, I could see why Branch might choose #2. AT WORST, he's trading $1 million to avoid 10 games in which he could get injured. At best, he gets a better offer. Even in the worst case scenario, he comes out ahead compared to the current Pat's offer IF he can make it through the games without injury. Franchise tag guarantees him just about the same as the Pats offer AND if he gets through that year, he gets to go for a bigger paycheck as a FA in 2008. Or he gets to FA next year and will get more than $1 Million more than the Pat's current offer on the open market next year.

I'd guess that Deion continues to sit out. Again, unless the PAt's have given a deadline for the extension offer, he has nothing to lose and could gain leverage if that Pat's start losing.

If the Pat's start losing to the point where it looks like the playoffs could be in question, they might sweeten his offer a bit to close the difference and give him more guaranteed money in order to get him on the field earlier in the season and have a chance at another superbowl this year.

As Pats lose, he gains some leverage.

As Pats win, the chance for him to gain leverage dissappears. In this case, I think he will very much want to extend. At best, he comes back on their current terms. He avoids the risk of playing 6 games + post season, getting hurt and losing out on the big payday.

The question I have is "How long will the pat's leave the offer on the table?"

The posture the Pats should take is that if he doesn't sign now, the current offer is off the table... maybe they outline a specific schedule for the offer to depreciate over the 10 games...

What if we go 8-0? Do we keep Deion's offer (or something essentially the same) on the table? What message does that send? No penalty for holding out?

So to me it seems that, unless the PAt's have put an expiration date on the offer - it boils down to just how fearful Deion is about injury and whether the Pat's are able to win without him.

***

One question comes to my mind. People have joked that we should make Deion play on the line or do some other job that would make him prone to get hurt. What ARE the rules on that? CAN the Pat's say, "You're going to be a gunner and kr as well as wr?" What if the player says "No"?

 

[TruthSeeker]

Ummm....September 1st.

 

[GoWesleyan]

Ummm .... Is that the contract extension or the trade offer?

 

[TruthSeeker]

Ummm .... Is that the contract extension or the trade offer?

I don't think there will be a contract extension. I'd be very suprised to see Deion in a Pats uni.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

What a bizarre and rambling post.

And to answer your question the offer was reportedly pulled off the table when the agent countered with his request that they agree not to tag him if he reported to camp on time.

Apparently the first contact since then has resulted in his being told he and his agent are free to shop him for 1 week to the highest bidder who will also meet the teams compensation requirements (rumored to be a first round draft choice).

 

[HAMMERMILL]

The Pats offered him a contract 4 years ago-He signed it.
He's under contract today,yesterday,and the last couple of weeks.
He wanted an extension,ok He deserved it,The Pats made an offer and He and his Agent scoffed at it and Deion who was under contract failed to show up to do what he's paid to do.
I hope the contract extention the Pats offered Deion is off the table.
The only exception would be for Deion to FIRE his agent and come back under the contract extention we offered him.
If he comes back with the same agent,Deion should be expected to pay the fines for sitting out while under contract.

 

[GoWesleyan]

What's so bizarre about the post to you, Mo? The premise is that Deion won't play for cheap because he can't afford an injury.

I didn't know that the offer was purportedly off the table.

If what you say was reported is correct, and the offer is off the table, I don't think it's very likely that Deion would come back now. I think he'll sit for 10 weeks and avoid injury, and there's still a chance that the Pat's could find themselves needing him more than they currently do.

At the very least, this holdout has protected him from the possibility of injury in preseason.

 

[GoWesleyan]

The Pats offered him a contract 4 years ago-He signed it.
He's under contract today,yesterday,and the last couple of weeks.
He wanted an extension,ok He deserved it,The Pats made an offer and He and his Agent scoffed at it and Deion who was under contract failed to show up to do what he's paid to do.
I hope the contract extention the Pats offered Deion is off the table.
The only exception would be for Deion to FIRE his agent and come back under the contract extention we offered him.
If he comes back with the same agent,Deion should be expected to pay the fines for sitting out while under contract.

I don't follow this logic. Branch signed a contract that said he had to play to get paid. He's not doing what we he's paid to do, so the Pat's are not paying. There was no blood promise, there was a business contract that -along with the rules of the league - stipulated what would happen in all scenarios. This is just one of those many different scenarios... No front office pro is shocked by this.

Why would you only make an exception if he fired his agent?! What difference does it make who his agent is? None.

 

[HAMMERMILL]

I don't follow this logic. Branch signed a contract that said he had to play to get paid. He's not doing what we he's paid to do, so the Pat's are not paying. There was no blood promise, there was a business contract that -a long with the rules of the league - stipulated what would happen in all circumstances- this is one of those circumstances.

Why would you only make an exception if he fired his agent?! What difference does it make who his agent is? None.

My opinion when you sign a contract,you show up for it(pre season games count)
There was no BLOOD PROMISE?,Come on who has signed a Blood Contract since the dark ages?Except for angalina jolie and Billy bob thorton?(we saw how that worked out?

As far a firing the agent,It's the only way I can think of to recover the damage done to Deion's Image here.

 

[GoWesleyan]

My opinion when you sign a contract,you show up for it(pre season games count)
There was no BLOOD PROMISE?,Come on who has signed a Blood Contract since the dark ages?Except for angalina jolie and Billy bob thorton?(we saw how that worked out?

As far a firing the agent,It's the only way I can think of to recover the damage done to Deion's Image here.

I feel the same way about most of the contracts that I sign, but those contracts are different than these contracts. The culture of the NFL is different.

Let me ask you this: Would you feel guilty about letting the bank down if you were to stop making payments on your house? I wouldn't. The bank knew this was a possibility and they covered their backs. They come take the house and sell it and they are fine.

Not paying the payments is an option for me, but I might not like the consequences.

Contracts and personal promises are different. The NFL is all about contracts, not promises.

 

[HAMMERMILL]

I feel the same way about most of the contracts that I sign, but those contracts are different than these contracts. The culture of the NFL is different.

Let me ask you this: Would you feel guilty about letting the bank down if you were to stop making payments on your house? I wouldn't. The bank knew this was a possibility and they covered their backs. They come take the house and sell it and they are fine.

Not paying the payments is an option for me, but I might not like the consequences.

Contracts and personal promises are different. The NFL is all about contracts, not promises.

Contracts are all about risks-
I give you this money hoping you live up to it.
You sign the contract hoping you'll live exceed it.
I sign you to this money hoping you don't suck.I have more risk than you.
Should I let you decide your next contract while,I still have you under contract?

 

[Underoath]

I don't think there will be a contract extension. I'd be very suprised to see Deion in a Pats uni.

why? just because they gave him permission to shop around doesn't mean they are planning or want to trade him. IMO, they just want him to see what his value is.

 

[HAMMERMILL]

By the way Deion-
You were the 11th WR picked in the 2002 draft:singing:
You have the CBA,You had your right to sign or not!
You could have gone to canada,or sat out the year,You chose to sign!

 

[HAMMERMILL]

why? just because they gave him permission to shop around doesn't mean they are planning or want to trade him. IMO, they just want him to see what his value is.

Totally agree

 

[GoWesleyan]

I don't see any downside to letting Branch look for offers. For that matter why restrict players from seeking trade offers ever? More options is better than fewer options, no? Let your players' agents do some of your work for you.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I feel the same way about most of the contracts that I sign, but those contracts are different than these contracts. The culture of the NFL is different.

Let me ask you this: Would you feel guilty about letting the bank down if you were to stop making payments on your house? I wouldn't. The bank knew this was a possibility and they covered their backs. They come take the house and sell it and they are fine.

Not paying the payments is an option for me, but I might not like the consequences.

Contracts and personal promises are different. The NFL is all about contracts, not promises.

Deion may find that he does not like the consequences of not playing until week 10. First off if he plays in weeks 11 through 19 he will do so for free - because his 6 weeks of salary and even his playoff shares will be eaten up by his fines and the team seeking a refund of a portion of his signing bonus which was paid as an advance on 5 years of being contractually bound to play for this team. His stats will suffer and having not set foot on a even a practice field for almost 9 months he will be at greater risk of injury when he does due to lack of game conditioning - if they even let him play. Then in 2007 he will either be far less marketable or franchised to limit his suitors to those teams willing to both sign him to a long term deal and compensate the Patriots sufficiently in draft picks.

And something Bill mentions on occasion that few here seem to appreciate. Taking away a players money hurts. Taking away a players stage cuts them to the core. That is what this is about now. I would be amazed if there is not an agreement in place that if they cannot find a deal he will report to camp and honor his contract with no promises going forward regarding a contract here or the use of the franchise tag in 2007. The alternative for Deion, sitting on his couch watching football for 10 weeks would present a challenge for this team but it would eat Deion alive.

 

[smg93]

bizarre and rambling post??? You've gotta be kidding. This is one of the most lucid and unemotional posts I've seen written on this board about the Branch situation. That was in my mind an excellent analysis of how Branch and Co. might see this situation and explains why losing 1 million dollars this year to avoid injury risk during the first 9 games could be beneficial to him.

The only thing this analysis doesn't address is the risk of major injury during weeks 10 - 16 plus post season. He could be playing for free during this time because of all the fines that have accumulated. This is also his free agency audition as well, so DB is risking this period of his career because it's not like he can just play poorly at that point in time because if he did, that would lower the number of suitors he has in free agency.

Great alternative examination of this situation. Too bad it's wasted on some people here.

 

[GoWesleyan]

"First off if he plays in weeks 11 through 19 he will do so for free"

Yes. That is discussed.

"the team seeking a refund of a portion of his signing bonus which was paid as an advance on 5 years of being contractually bound to play for this team."

I have not heard talk of this with regards to the Branch situation. This generally applies when the player sits out the whole year, which is not what we are talking about.


"His stats will suffer."

Right, his career stats will suffer. That could be a true disincentive.

"Having not set foot on a even a practice field for almost 9 months he will be at greater risk of injury when he does due to lack of game conditioning:

I doubt Deion feels that way, personally.

"If they even let him play."

Them not letting him play 6-9 games for free probably wouldn't be much of a punishment.


"Then in 2007 he will either be far less marketable"

Is that rue? I get the sense that it is not.

"or franchised to limit his suitors to those teams willing to both sign him to a long term deal and compensate the Patriots sufficiently in draft picks.
"

If he is franchised, he gets at about $8 million guaranteed and either gets to go to FA next year or is guaranteed a 20% raise on that mammoth salary OR he can be traded to someone else if that deal is better. Why is this a negative?

Your point about "the stage" is a good one.

I wonder whether there is any aspect of this that is about getting pub now. It's a longshot probably that this would be the case, but I think it could actually make some sense - alot of the stories that I've seen start off with Superbowl MVP Deion Branch ... If an agent looks at himself and a player as a product, maybe there is value for getting in the news all the time (ahem, T.O.) - you know, bad pub is better than no pub at all... Certainly from Chayut's perspective this makes sense. I'd never heard of him before this.

But I digress, your point about the stage during the games is a good one. It will be a new test of Branch's resolve if he is not back in the fold when the season opens.

 

[GoWesleyan]

One more thing: Regardless of what the Pats are saying, why wouldn't the offer still be on the table? Deion Branch is still the same player now he was when the offer was made. It's no big deal that he missed preseason, he's not at a stage where he really needs it and, again, his missing that time might even have been a bit of a blessing given his injury history and the Pat's need to get other wr's reps. The patirots are unemotional and certainly see this as a business, I really don't think they would pass on securing Deion for the future - on their terms - because he tried to play a particular card in negotiations...

That said, there is the "precedent" issue: It will be interesting to see if they fear setting a precedent. My gut says that they probably do not. Every situation is different and whatever "precedent" that is set by Deion has limited applicability to the next situation. There is no better time to extend Deion than right now, that benefit outweighs the dubious "precedent" issue. No?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

"First off if he plays in weeks 11 through 19 he will do so for free"

Yes. That is discussed.

"the team seeking a refund of a portion of his signing bonus which was paid as an advance on 5 years of being contractually bound to play for this team."

I have not heard talk of this with regards to the Branch situation. This generally applies when the player sits out the whole year, which is not what we are talking about.

Then you haven't been paying attention. Especially since the Broncos just traded Lelie under an agreement that stipulates he will pay all of his fines and forfeit one-fifth of his signing bonus for loss of that year's services.


"His stats will suffer."

Right, his career stats will suffer. That could be a true disincentive.

"Having not set foot on a even a practice field for almost 9 months he will be at greater risk of injury when he does due to lack of game conditioning:

I doubt Deion feels that way, personally.

Whether he feels it or not playing without benefit of football conditioning for 8 or nine months certainly ups his risk of injury.

"If they even let him play."

Them not letting him play 6-9 games for free probably wouldn't be much of a punishment.

In a what have you done lately league a WR who has never cracked the thousand yard benchmark it would be at the top of each suitors list of talking points come negotiation time. Deion doesn't have mega star stats or status to fall back on. Which is probably why Chayut has chosen the no such thing as bad publicity approach in this case. To elevate Deion's profile. BB's refusal to play along and kvetch about the missing does not help.


"Then in 2007 he will either be far less marketable"

Is that rue? I get the sense that it is not.

If he struggles or gets hurt in those last 6-9 games he is toast from a mega contract point of view. Could end up cut and playing a series of re-prove yourself one year with option deals like our old pal Ty Law - who has yet to earn as much as the extension offer we insulted him with in 2004.

"or franchised to limit his suitors to those teams willing to both sign him to a long term deal and compensate the Patriots sufficiently in draft picks.
"

If he is franchised, he gets at about $8 million guaranteed and either gets to go to FA next year or is guaranteed a 20% raise on that mammoth salary OR he can be traded to someone else if that deal is better. Why is this a negative?

The tag will be based on the top 5 WR's salaries plus prorated bonus. Pending any further signings we as the year unfolds we won't know what that number will be until January. This year it is just over $6M. It will likely increase to in excess of $7M. If he signed either of the deals he was offered he would have pocketed between $10-13M by the time he takes the field in 2007. Playing under a tag he would risk career ending injury for millions less. And had he signed the 3 year deal he was implicitly guaranteed he would see $20M in the next 4 years. Not only because the $10M in hand by 2007 represents that implicit guarantee, but because the Kraft's are well known for taking care of their injured players even at the expense of their cap. Just ask Tedy or TJ (who was allowed to retain his signing bonus on retirement even in a year when we were strapped for cap).

Your point about "the stage" is a good one.

I wonder whether there is any aspect of this that is about getting pub now. It's a longshot probably that this would be the case, but I think it could actually make some sense - alot of the stories that I've seen start off with Superbowl MVP Deion Branch ... If an agent looks at himself and a player as a product, maybe there is value for getting in the news all the time (ahem, T.O.) - you know, bad pub is better than no pub at all... Certainly from Chayut's perspective this makes sense. I'd never heard of him before this.

But I digress, your point about the stage during the games is a good one. It will be a new test of Branch's resolve if he is not back in the fold when the season opens.

There is a little diva living inside every WR. You see flashes of it in Deion on the field lots of times. Not to the extent of the obnoxious ones, but it is there. For them the stage matters more than most. He will die a little bit each week he watches from the couch. BB knows this from experience, Deion doesn't. He's missed time due to injury, but he was with the team throughout those. The couch and the isolation of a holdout is a whole other kettle of fish. And as the season progresses players will lose sympathy because they are just too busy trying to take care of their own pressing business in his absence. Some may even begin to really resent him, whether they admit it publicly or not. The calls and text messages and attaboy's will become fewer and farther between. It is what it is because teams move on.

And precedents do matter to a FO who prides itself on discipline and staying the course. They don't panic about the here and now like fans do. And they honestly expect others to step up and fill the void or they wouldn't waste a roster spot on them. It may not always work out, but that doesn't mean they will cease to always expect it to.