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How important is a first-round bye for the Patriots?

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  1. PatsFans.com Article

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    How important is a first-round bye for the Patriots?
    By: Ryan Hannable

    The statistics show just how important getting a first-round bye is for teams looking to get to and then win the Super Bowl...

  2. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa Rookie

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    The seeding and matchups don't bother me. The playing on the road doesn't either. The only bad part to me is that we're pretty beat up. Really could use the week off to get some guy's healthier; Vollmer, Mankins, AHern, Gronk, Welker, Spikes, Dennard and Talib. That's quite a few key players nicked up.

    If Houston wins at 1p. I'd rest everybody. KC isn't going to win at Denver. Play Brady a quarter or so. Let him get his td pass to extend his streak. Then, get him out of there so we can take a look at Mallett. If Houston loses at 1p, play this like a must-win.
  3. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    That about sums it up, and nicely to boot.

    The only thing I may add is that while seeding/matchups can't be controlled, along with playing on the road etc, the need to play one more game is certainly quite a challenge, especially against top level competition.
  4. nabwong

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    #12 Jersey

    If we rest everybody and we lose, and baltimore wins, we'll be 3rd seed. And if baltimore and new england wins the divisional rounds, baltimore gets home field. So we can't just rest everyone. But we'll know the Baltimore result by the time we play.
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2012
  5. MrNathanDrake

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    #95 Jersey

    It shouldn't be that important. Giants x2, Steelers x2, Packers.... have all been road warriors in recent years. So many other teams have won the SB while going on the road in the playoffs. The Pats should be able to do the same!


    We don't deserve a SuperBowl if we can't win a couple games on the road
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2012
  6. josh24

    josh24 Rookie

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    Very important, especially for this Patriots. We are pretty banged up going to the playoffs. The TEs, the O line and the CBs are some of the places we're missing people.

    On the other hand, I have a dream of the Pats beating DEN & HOU on the road, and then beating SF in the SB. Oh boy, if we pull that one off...
  7. dannydyn

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    #12 Jersey

    That's a lot of beating to take right there....
  8. Bhelmet

    Bhelmet Rookie

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    Judging by our past success with a first-round bye, I don't mind seeing what happens if we do not get it.
  9. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    5 out of 6 SB appearances with the bye under Belichick.

    0 for 3-4 without the bye under Belichick. (I saw it written today as 0 for 4, but I can only count 3...the seasons of 2005, 2006, and 2009)

    Obviously hoping we can break that trend.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2012
  10. Bhelmet

    Bhelmet Rookie

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    A rule I have: always bet against the streak. Only optimism I can offer. Stinks the bye is out of our control.
  11. Brady2Moss

    Brady2Moss Rookie

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    This team desperately needs the bye to get healthy... Talib, Dennard, Spikes and to a lesser extent Jones are all battling with injuries and are the key to our defense being competent.

    Now on offense it may be even worse: Solder, Mankins, Connolly, Vollmer, Welker, Hernandez, Gronk, and now maybe Brady with the hand...this team simply needs a week off.

    I'll be praying for some upsets this weekend.
  12. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    I couldn't agree more.

    Usually there is some sort of luck that occurs in these postseason tournaments, and the good bounces and good calls often benefit the winning team in close games...now not always, but in many instances luck can certainly help when the competition is so close.

    I would think that the "luck" factor will begin this week, with the potential for an upset to help this team heal and rest by gaining that important #2 seed. I am leery of whether or not they can pull it off playing an extra game and having to go on the road with no week to rest this year. That is probably my biggest concern personally.
  13. TheBostonStraggler

    TheBostonStraggler Rookie

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    To get to the SB with a bye: win 2 games with a minimum of 1 game at home. Players get an extra week of rest/recuperation. BB and staff get an extra week of scouting, film watching, planning for the possible opponent(s).

    To get to the SB without a bye: win 3 games with a minimum of 1 on the road, likely 2. No extra week for game planning. No extra week for player rest/recuperation.

    Obviously anything can happen once you get into the playoffs. If there is no bye then it simply is what it is. The patriots will have to climb whatever hill is presented to them. Yes, non bye teams get to the SB. But the far more optimum path to the SB is crystal clear. There really isn't a discussion to have here.....the bye is very important to the Patriots (or to the Broncos or the Texans or [fill in the team name]).
  14. PatsFanSince74

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    Agreed on the first point. I mentioned something similar a few days ago. I think a team can use up a lot of "luck" in long, intra-season win streaks. I also think that when the history of the Brady Belichick era is written, the 21 game win streak spanning 03 and 04, will be viewed as their most amazing accomplishment, since it included an SB win. I just don't think that this Denver team is anywhere near the caliber of that team. I find it almost impossible to believe that they can win 14 in a row and win the SB this year. Something, "luck" or injuries, will catch up with them at some point.

    As for your second comment, yes, I agree that it stinks. But they have no one but themselves to blame. Yeah, the Ravens loss was shaky because of the officiating, but they still blew a fourth quarter lead and failed twice to get the first downs that would have kept Flacco et al off the field. And, looking back, they just didn't show up until the third quarter for the Arizona game. Blowing the two TD lead in Seattle was no shame; that's a tough place to play and we now know how good Seattle might just be. The SF loss, on a short week and on the heels of the Houston win was, to me, a demonstration of the courage of this team even more than it was an L.
  15. PATSYLICIOUS

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    #12 Jersey

    I think it's important due to rest and the fact that the ball has not been bouncing our way this year. We've played 7 close games and are 3-4 in those. The less games we have to win the better our odds at a title, simple as that.

    That said, each AFC game we enter I definitely would not bet against us. We should be able to handle each team.
  16. brdmaverick

    brdmaverick Rookie

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    Hopefully that "luck" factor comes in the form of Andrew Luck. Hopefully he can rally his team around the return of coach Chuck Pagano and pull out a victory.
  17. NewFeep

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    The two losses at home to AZ and SF are looming large now! Win either of those and take care of business this Sunday and it's a moot point. Pity!
  18. KontradictioN

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    #24 Jersey

    This is thread right here.
  19. TinhWoodhead

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    I want him to extend his streak too but why is Rondo "selfish" when his coach wanted him to keep his streak?
  20. PatsDeb

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    I think it's damn important. With lots of injuries, and being inconsistent on both sides of the ball as a result, the less we have to roll the dice, the better. We really screwed ourselves by losing that SF game. All we can do now is pray for an unlikely loss by the Texans or Denver.
  21. PatsFanSince74

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    The seedings and matchups do bother me. I don't want to play in Denver in January. But that's not why I'm replying to your post.

    According to how the record is kept, if Brady misses a game for any reason, it does not stop the streak; the record is for TD's thrown in "consecutive games started." Unitas missed several games and Brees missed at least one during their streaks. In fact, if Belichick decides that the game is meaningless, he might be better off not starting Brady at all rather than have to keep him in until garbage time if he hasn't thrown a TD yet.
  22. BananaRepublican

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    I agree with the sentiment but on a that given Sunday I would not bet my farm on it. Human motivation is a funny animal.
  23. PatsFans.com Article

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  24. fxkane

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    The bye is gold for any team. And get them while you can because the NFL wants to do away with them under a new playoff format.

    Another thing... if we give up this game then Denver can do the same, so we leave the most scary team in the East with essentially two weeks off. Let them play and let KC make them pay for playing.
  25. TheBostonStraggler

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    Good point of discussion. If the Patriots ease up and the game gets away from them too quickly and Denver can jump out to a comfortable lead by halftime, Denver gets an additional week to give a bit of extra rest to key players. It's not the biggest deal in the world but it isn't nothing either. Fortunately it's an unlikely scenario for Denver to be in a position by half time that their game is in hand and the Patriots game is in hand for them too. Of note is KC's game with Denver about a month ago. Denver did not blow them out at all (it was 7-6 at half time). I hope, if they can't beat Denver, they give them a game like they did.
  26. TheBostonStraggler

    TheBostonStraggler Rookie

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    Completely agree. I wouldn't bet a nickle on KC winning, however, any Sunday any team winning is far from impossible. With human motivation as you mention, KC could play the game of their lives. To further the point, KC had the ball in Denver territory with 7 minutes left down 5 points in their first meeting about a month ago (the point being Denver was far from blowing them out).
    Again, I don't expect KC to win but it is far from impossible (I'd rather have Cassell playing though).
  27. bigballas

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    only problem is KC gets 1st pick 2013 if they lose the game...jacksonville needs a QB too just like KC so they both would want to finish 1st if they are thinking long term.
  28. aztecafut

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    I don't usually watch espn but the tv was on at work earlier and I started paying attention when they started talking about the Patriots. I think they were discussing this very question and no one on the show gave the Patriots a chance in the playoffs without the bye. Jerry Rice, Antonio Pierce and the two others agreed that without the bye, the Patriots would have to travel to Denver and they just couldn't see the Pats beating Broncos. Not just espn, but the media as a whole seem share this same opinion. It used to tick me off at first but then again, I kinda like it better this way.
  29. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    I always enjoy the underdog role much more than being the favorite, but in this case I worry that the perception of the general public and mediots may indeed be correct.

    My biggest concern is definitely the fact that this team is horribly beat up, and would have to go on the road at Mile High stadium to try and beat Manning 2x out of 2 meetings this year. I'm not into giving him a rematch, especially on his turf in the thin air of Mile High stadium.

    Many here laughed when the heavy majority wrote the Pats off in last year's SB, but they did end up somehow being correct. My concern is that the same thing will happen this year, and that they are onto something.

    Not meaning to sound negative, but that's certainly my concern. The bye is extremely important in my opinion, and just as everything was falling into place and coming into focus we had to play the 2 toughest teams in each conference in a 6 day span, and ultimately failed.
  30. supafly

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    #24 Jersey

    They also wouldn't have all had this strong of an opinion a few weeks ago, especially on Dec.10th when the Pats blasted Houston out of the water to move up to the clear cut favorite in the AFC.

    The problem is that they have since looked lousy falling down 31-3 to SF and barely beating the laughable 2-13 Jacksonville Jags, so the only other choice is Denver--especially now that they have the bye pretty much secured and probably won't have to travel anywhere.

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