How important is a downfield threat?

[Joker]

Only 4 teams in 46 SB's played have won a Superbowl having scored 17 or less points, and the last one was 37 years ago.

the last one was four years ago, Giants 17-14....keep drinking though...

 

[Banjo]

there's not a single team in the league that can't benefit from a good deep threat.

 

[DonBlackmon55]

Only 4 teams in 46 SB's played have won a Superbowl having scored 17 or less points, and the last one was 37 years ago.

the last one was four years ago, Giants 17-14....keep drinking though...

16-6 Steelers over Vikes in SB 9. If you took the time to read the thread I already pointed that out earlier LESS THAN 17 points, keep being ignorant though..

 

[Joker]

I just posted YOUR words, moron...THAT is your quote is it not? It DOES say Only 4 teams in 46 SB's played have won a Superbowl having scored 17 or less points,, isn't this TRUE?? I mean, you are DENYING what you just wrote that anyone with eyes can read and then have the temerity to ,like the obviously belligerent drunk you are, lash out with another of your drunken insults to a member of this board. Stop printing idiotic fallacies and people will stop calling you on it.Sober up ,first...

 

[Joker]

just so you won't edit your idiotic post...HERE is what you posted...too late to edit your way out of this one, drunk...

DonBlackmon55
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Default Re: How important is a downfield threat?
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyJohnson View Post
How exactly did we struggle against the Jets this year?
We scored 23 on Baltimore.
The Steeler and Giants game has as much to do with the offense being kept off the field than being stopped.
If you are expecting an offense that scores over 30 points a game to lead the league or come close to also score over 30 against the best defenses, you don't understand the game.

In the last 2 SBs the offense scored enough that if the defense didn't allow 85 and 92 yard TD drives the last time on the field, we would have 2 more Championships.Wasting our time pretending the offense should be able to do just as well against the best defenses in the league as the worst takes the focus off the issue, which is the defense must be unf#cked.
Offense
SB 42 = 14 points scored
SB 46 = 17 points scored

Defense
SB 42 = 17 points allowed
SB 46 = 19 points allowed

One could argue that in SB46 Defense only allowed 12 points, since bonehead Brady play put the D right back on its heels after holding Giants to 0 points, allowed a TD . In the 1st Quarter Dedense was on the field for 12 out of 15 minutes, so really cannot blame them when Giants scored a TD on the drive after Safety free kick !!!!!

How many SB's have been won by scoring 14 or 17 points ??????????
4 total, and guess what, the last one was SB IX, Steelers 16-6 victory over Vikings in 1975. Get your blinders off blaming the D for SB42 and 46 losses. Absurd comments.
(The Giants, once again,since you cannot comprehend simple English, scored 17 points to win 4 years ago.)

Defense did its part in both SB's. In SB 46 they created 3 Turnovers(fumbles, bad luck they did not bounce our way or we had 12 men), while the offense made crucial mistake after crucial mistake - safety, int, drop passes !

in SB42, the offensive line was a joke, and boneheaded game plan

Both SB losses rest on the OFFENSE, period

sleep it off ,Bukowski and try again tomorrow night...

 

[ATippett56]

sleep it off ,Bukowski and try again tomorrow night...

Blutarsky perhaps?

http://www.amsterdamadblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/John-Bluto-Blutarsky.jpg

 

[Joker]

Blutarsky perhaps?

http://www.amsterdamadblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/John-Bluto-Blutarsky.jpg

No..I meant what I wrote..Bukowski...as in Charles Bukowski...his pic

this is his claim to literary fame...the work that led to the movie starring Mickey Rourke...

what I envisage when I read one of this person's posts on this thread...like the barrage of babble-on tonight...

 

[andrewgarrr]

A solid running game (20+ carries, 80+ yards a game) or a very threatening down-field option would make this offense unstoppable. And by unstoppable I mean better than 2007: Imagine a no huddle with Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Downfield Receiver, and a running back who can block and catch. All with one of the best QBs to ever play at the helm. Can't be stopped.

I don't know about you guys, but more recently I'm getting the feeling that the best defense is a good offense. A team that can methodically use the clock and gain seven points at important times in the game will win. (see SB 46).

 

[ATippett56]

A solid running game (20+ carries, 80+ yards a game) or a very threatening down-field option would make this offense unstoppable. And by unstoppable I mean better than 2007: Imagine a no huddle with Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Downfield Receiver, and a running back who can block and catch. All with one of the best QBs to ever play at the helm. Can't be stopped.

The New England Patriots offense has been held in check in the last two Super Bowl appearances. An unstoppable offense does not exist in the salary cap era.

 

[Banjo]

A solid running game (20+ carries, 80+ yards a game) or a very threatening down-field option would make this offense unstoppable. And by unstoppable I mean better than 2007: Imagine a no huddle with Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Downfield Receiver, and a running back who can block and catch. All with one of the best QBs to ever play at the helm. Can't be stopped.

I don't know about unstoppable, but it would certainly have helped the Pats run out the clock in the Super Bowl and take the pressure off Brady.

it reminds me of the Cowboys. when DeMarco Murray came on the scene, the whole team started playing better and got on a roll. they already had a nice fullback blocking and making holes (something else we need) and Murray took advantage. even Tony Romo started playing better. less mistakes, more touchdowns. but then Murray went down, and so did their season.

The Pats need to improve the line and get a fullback if they're gonna commit to running the ball next season. personally I'm anxious to see what Vereen brings to the table

 

[FCB02062]

I second, third, and fourth all those crying for a REAL running attack. Not the current running game of delay draws on 2nd and 9 and BJGE for two yards on first down. I want the Corey Dillon running game back. A running game like that would add years to Brady's career and it would open EVERYTHING up in the passing game on play action. This team won Super Bowls with no real deep threat - Bethel Johnson????
I want a bell weather running back who can carry 20-25 times a game...when the Patriots show a commitment to the running game, they've shown they can do it - against the NYJ, OAK, BUF....but it's this passive running game they do that kills them....

 

[skinnydog]

I don't know about unstoppable, but it would certainly have helped the Pats run out the clock in the Super Bowl and take the pressure off Brady.

it reminds me of the Cowboys. when DeMarco Murray came on the scene, the whole team started playing better and got on a roll. they already had a nice fullback blocking and making holes (something else we need) and Murray took advantage. even Tony Romo started playing better. less mistakes, more touchdowns. but then Murray went down, and so did their season.

The Pats need to improve the line and get a fullback if they're gonna commit to running the ball next season. personally I'm anxious to see what Vereen brings to the table

They do not need a fullback. They only need to commit to the running game to the extent that other teams and especially other good defenses will have to game plan for it and pay attention to it on Sundays. Against 75% of the league it doesn't matter. They can't handle the Pats passing attack regardless of whether the Pats have a running game or not. but against playoff caliber teams it does. Teams like the Ravens and Giants treat every play by the Pats as if it was going to be a pass at the snap of the ball and then react to the run.

The Pats are and will be a team whose primary offense is a quick pass in the short to intermediate zone and if they get Welker resigned, they have a historically good combo to run that offense.

But they need a legitimate threat in the running game and passing game to the outside of the numbers in the middle to deep zone to keep the handful of really good defenses honest. I guess I believe very simply, you must make opposing defenses defend the entire field.

 

[Deus Irae]

Just an FYI...

Mayock's on board.

"Probably at wide receiver," Mayock answered. "Welker has had career years and those two tight ends are exceptional, which has kind of changed the way a lot of people look at offense in this league, and I think you have to give Bill and his coaching staff a lot of credit for crafting what they've crafted with that offense; however, having said that, between Welker and the tight ends they're based in the middle of the field more than they are vertically. I think a vertical wide receiver could really help them."

Mayock likes defense for Pats - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[DaBruinz]

I don't think a downfield threat is needed as much as someone who has Brady's confidence and can consistently get open. And that was the problem in the SB. In the 2nd half, only Hernandez and Welker were getting open.. Gronkowski's ankle affected him tremendously and Branch wasn't getting open consistently. And when they needed him, he had a critical drop, just like Welker and Hernandez.

 

[Snake Eyes]

The New England Patriots offense has been held in check in the last two Super Bowl appearances. An unstoppable offense does not exist in the salary cap era.

Did we have the RB the other poster described? We also didnt have the TEs we do now, and Moss wasn't exactly a multi-dimensional receiver.

We have many incredible pieces in place, with a few more we might see something better than has ever been done before.

 

[Snake Eyes]

They do not need a fullback

- BB obviously disagrees with you, as he brought in Polite.
- How many RBs did we have on the roster this past season, are you telling me we'd have been worse off if one of those spots was taken by a bruiser to open holes and occasionally pound the ball on short yardage situations?

The Pats are and will be a team whose primary offense is a quick pass in the short to intermediate zone and if they get Welker resigned, they have a historically good combo to run that offense

And the offense will fall apart as soon as they come up against a good defense able to deal with that game, which has been happening quite a bit lately. They need to be able to win in more than one way, shying away from being able to pound the ball smash-mouth style will not help them in the long term.

 

[MaineMan]

Looking for more specifics as to what might define a "deep threat", I took the TOP 40 pass-catchers for 2011 in terms of yards/reception (minimum 50 targets), then computed their "Air Yards"/reception by subtracting their YAC from their total receiving yards - and then dividing THAT by their receptions (and sorted by "air yards"). I also calculated the % of their catches that went for 20+ yds and their overall catch rate (CR). For comparison, I included Ochocinco and Tate (from 2010), and Brandon Lloyd (who placed just outside the Top 40 in YPC). Here's a sampling of what shook out:

M. Floyd ----- 43 rec, 856 yds, 19.9 ypc, 37% (20+ yds), 16.4 air yds/rec, 61.4% CR

Riley Cooper - 16 rec, 315 yds, 19.7 ypc, 31%, 16.2 air, 47.1%
Johnny Knox -- 37 rec, 727 yds, 19.6 ypc, 32%, 15.4 air, 53.6%
Ochocinco ---- 15 rec, 276 yds, 18.4 ypc, 20%, 15.0 air, 46.9%
V. Jackson --- 60 rec, 1106 yds, 18.4 ypc, 35%, 14.7 air, 52.2%
Den. Moore --- 33 rec, 618 yds, 18.7 ypc, 36%, 14.5 air, 43.4%
Dem. Thomas -- 32 rec, 551 yds, 17.2 ypc, 28%, 13.7 air, 45.7%
B. Tate (2010) 24 rec, 432 yds, 18.0 ypc, 33%, 13.3 air, 52.2%
B. Hartline -- 35 rec, 549 yds, 15.7 ypc, 23%, 13.1 air, 52.2%
R. Meacham --- 40 rec, 620 yds, 15.5 ypc, 23%, 12.9 air, 65.6% (!)
DeS. Jackson - 58 rec, 961 yds, 16.6 ypc, 26%, 12.3 air, 55.8%
Jordy Nelson - 68 rec, 1263 yds, 18.6 ypc, 28%, 12.3 air, 70.8% (!!)
Torrey Smith - 50 rec, 841 yds, 16.8 ypc, 28%, 12.3 air, 52.6%
C. Johnson --- 96 rec, 1681 yds, 17.5 ypc, 33%, 12.1 air, 60.8%
AJ Green ----- 65 rec, 1057 yds, 16.3 ypc, 29%, 11.8 air, 56.0%
Brandon Lloyd 70 rec, 966 yds, 13.8 ypc, 21%, 11.7 air, 46.7%
S. Smith (CAR) 79 rec, 1394 yds, 17.6 ypc, 37%, 11.6 air, 61.2%
Jacoby Jones - 31 rec, 512 yds, 16.5 ypc, 29%, 11.6 air, 48.4%
Victor Cruz -- 82 rec, 1536 yds, 18.7 ypc, 30%, 11.5 air, 62.6%
L. Fitzgerald 80 rec, 1411 yds, 17.6 ypc, 31%, 11.5 air, 52.3%
A. Boldin ---- 57 rec, 887 yds, 15.6 ypc, 26%, 11.3 air, 54.3%
A. Brown (PIT) 69 rec, 1108 yds, 16.1 ypc, 26%, 11.1 air, 56.1%
L. Robinson -- 54 rec, 858 yds, 15.9 ypc, 22%, 11.0 air, 66.7%
B. Marshall -- 81 rec, 1214 yds, 15.0 ypc, 25%, 11.0 air, 55.9%
M. Colston --- 80 rec, 1143 yds, 14.3 ypc, 19%, 11.0 air, 74.8% (!!!)
Hakeem Nicks - 76 rec, 1192 yds, 15.7 ypc, 22%, 10.9 air, 57.1%
M. Wallace --- 72 rec, 1193 yds, 16.6 ypc, 25%, 9.7 air, 63.7%
R. Gronkowski 90 rec, 1327 yds, 14.7 ypc, 24%, 7.5 air, 72.6%

A couple of observations about these numbers.

Many of the guys who are widely considered "deep threats" aren't really, on average, all that far down the field when they catch the pass and their YPC is supported in large part by what they did after the catch.

Aside from a couple notable exceptions, the catch rates for these "deep" guys are pretty low, relative to the 70%+ posted by the Pats top three pass-catchers (who were all among the Top NINE in YAC). Deeper passes are simply more difficult to complete (even shorter sideline routes are lower percentage than most routes over the middle).

Ochocinco's receptions were much further downfield than any other Pats pass-catcher (and even further than Tate's); IOW, Ocho WAS the Pats "deep threat" in 2011. Tate really wasn't all that shabby as a "deep threat"; his problem was that he couldn't run any other route consistently well, which minimized his overall effectiveness (when he was on the field, the defense pretty much knew where he was going). In contrast, Ocho DID run some short/intermediate sideline routes (on which he DID get open), but Brady didn't throw to him very often. Again, why would he when he had a much higher percentage pass available to a guy over the middle who was far more likely to get big YAC?

I don't think the reality of a "deep threat" is what most people imagine it to be or that any new guy is going to have the dramatic effect on the Pats' passing attack that most folks appear to think he will - unless they can somehow come up with a Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meacham or Jordy Nelson (or maybe bring back Tate). Even then, there's no guarantee that Brady would actually USE such a guy more often than he did Tate or Ocho.

 

[patsfan13]

Looking for more specifics as to what might define a "deep threat", I took the TOP 40 pass-catchers for 2011 in terms of yards/reception (minimum 50 targets), then computed their "Air Yards"/reception by subtracting their YAC from their total receiving yards - and then dividing THAT by their receptions (and sorted by "air yards"). I also calculated the % of their catches that went for 20+ yds and their overall catch rate (CR). For comparison, I included Ochocinco and Tate (from 2010), and Brandon Lloyd (who placed just outside the Top 40 in YPC). Here's a sampling of what shook out:

.

There are some limitations to this analysis, the schemes and QB's and their protection vary quite a bit, whne Lloyd was with McD with even K Orton at QB his stats are markedly different.

G Rec Yds YPC
16 77 1,448 18.8



I didn't look for the YAC, but his line is very different from 2010 to 2011, with Tebow and who know who throwing to him in StL.

 

[supafly]

I don't think a downfield threat is needed as much as someone who has Brady's confidence and can consistently get open. And that was the problem in the SB. In the 2nd half, only Hernandez and Welker were getting open.. Gronkowski's ankle affected him tremendously and Branch wasn't getting open consistently. And when they needed him, he had a critical drop, just like Welker and Hernandez.

I agree 100%.

The thought of a guy with good chemistry like a Gaffney for example would make a lot of difference.

 

[skinnydog]

Well it should really be a threat outside the numbers in the middle to deep zone. For the offense it doesn't have to mean bombs away. It would also be nice if he is a threat to run the sideline fade and is tall enough and strong enough to go up and get a ball in tight coverage.

One reason is simply to keep the safety on that side of the field honest and prevent the safety from getting to aggressive in run support and keeping the safety the heck out of the space where Welker and the TEs operate.