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How I figured who the Pats will draft in the first round

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by WhiZa, Apr 23, 2007.

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  1. WhiZa

    WhiZa Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    The Patriots will draft someone who will start right away or part-time this year full-time next year. Based on that, are there any players at #24/28 who could beat out a current starter? The weakest positions seem to be at RT (Kazcur/O'C), MLB (Bruschi), and maybe OG (Neal)

    Who will be around at 24/28 in those positions?
    RT: Joe Staley / Tony Ugoh / Arron Sears
    MLB: David Harris / Buster Davis / Paul Posluszny
    OG: Justin Blalock / Ben Grubbs / Josh Beekman
    Do any of these players upgrade the position?

    Secondly, you have to think of starters who only have one year left with the team. FAs next year include: WR Caldwell/Gaffney/Stallworth (his deal is setup like a one year tryout), CB Samuel, LB Bruschi, FS Wilson. It looks like there is a good opportunity for a WR to come in take over kick return duties and possibly start next year as WR position is volatile again.

    who could start next year (this year if needed)?
    WR/KR: Ted Ginn Jr. / Anthony Gonzalez / Craig Davis
    CB: Darrelle Revis / Chris Houston / Marcus McCauley
    MLB: David Harris / Buster Davis / Paul Posluszny
    S: Michael Griffin / Reggie Nelson / Brandon Meriweather


    Looking at this it is very likely we will draft a MLB in the first round based on Bruschi's decline and possible last year (see Dillon scenario last year). Secondly I see the Patriots drafting an OL. With a new zone blocking scheme we will need talented OL who can adapt.

    #24: David Harris
    It does not look like Seau's coming back, but Harris will be able to fill the void nicely. This will also allow Vrabel to stay outside more and AD to play whatever position he wants :)
    #28: Joe Staley
    Zone blocking requires fast and agile linemen to hit the zone quickly. This guy is the fastest OL in the draft and a perfect upgrade at RT. Kazcur can now go focus on playing guard.


    Feel free to critique as I reserve the right to change my mind later :woohoo:
     
  2. sebman2112

    sebman2112 In the Starting Line-Up

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    I don't think they actually draft for year one starters but generally part time players in year one, and full time players in year two.

    I'd take Harris and Meriweather.
     
  3. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    I think you need to look at the worst case scenario for 2008 and make sure you are prepared to deal with it:

    Samuel leaves as FA (entirely possible)
    Wilson leaves as FA (certainly won't franchise him)
    Gay leaves as FA (does anyone not see him as a Jet in 2008?)
    Bruschi retires (I'm 50-50 on this one)
    Harrison retires (possible if he has another injury-filled year)
    Only Welker and Jackson return at WR (unlikely that all the rest wash out)

    Given this set of possible situations (there are others I'm not thinking of), I think you have got to turn #24 and #28 into at least one corner that is capable of starting in 2008. I don't think you can count on getting a starting-caliber corner in FA. I also think that would be a lot to ask a rookie corner drafted in 2008...let's face it, we won't have a high draft pick then either.

    I think you can get value at linebacker later (would like to see #28 traded back into the 2nd round for this purpose) and safety is a position where value could be found in the middle rounds.

    As for WR, there should be lots of veterans available in FA and as I said, I think there is a strong chance that at least one of Caldwell/Gaffney/Stallworth/Washington click with Brady this year and survive to 2008.

    So I can see the Pats moving up from #24 (using the 2nd day non-comp picks) to get a CB like Revis, using #28 (or trading back into the 2nd round) and picking up a LB like Harris and using #91 to get a safety like Gattis, Wendling or Piscitelli. I'm using the names as examples...substitute a similar caliber of player that the Pats like better and the result is the same.

    So I see CB, LB and S at the end of the first day, in that order.
     
  4. HEY BRO! WHAT UP?

    HEY BRO! WHAT UP? Banned

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    It's looking more and more likely that the Pats take David Harris somewhere in the first round. If he can start from day 1, that would awesome. At safety, you can make the case between Merriweather, Griffin and Nelson.

    As of right now, it seems the Pats are leaning towards ILB and possibility taking a S in round 1. I hope the Pats can get two guys that start on defense right away.
     
  5. sebman2112

    sebman2112 In the Starting Line-Up

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    If Revis is on the board at 24 I'd take him, but I'm not sure he's there. I dont want any other CB's at 24.
     
  6. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    Staley looks like he will be gone well before Harris and Harris looks like he'll still be around in round 2.
     
  7. Remix 6

    Remix 6 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    congrats..u didnt figure anything out. dont all teams who draft a guy in first round expect that player to start sometime soon?
     
  8. sebman2112

    sebman2112 In the Starting Line-Up

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    If they draft Harris and Meriweather I would be happy because Meriweather is good against the run, tackles well, has leadership skills, plays bigger than his size, is great in coverage, and can play CB, if needed.

    Harris is good against the run, has leadership ability, has good size, and is an intelligent player. His coverage skills are a little better than some think, so he could be more than just a run stuffer. A lot of people see him in the Ted Johnson/Ed Hartwell role, and that's the type of LB that has been missing from NE's defense since Johnson left.

    I still like Woodley and Spencer, though.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2007
  9. sebman2112

    sebman2112 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Don't forget if you trade down into the second you loose a year off the contract length. So NE could take Harris,Woodley, Spencer, Meriweather at 24-28 and sign them to 5 year contracts, but if they traded down they would only be able to sign them to four year deals. Pioli himself said trading down into the second round has lost it's value because of this.
     
  10. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    Point taken but you balance that against what you gain by trading back into the 2nd round which from #28 could be a #2 in 2008 and the salary cap flexibility of getting the guy you want at a reduced price (granted you need to deal with contract negotiations a year earlier). Draft picks are like gold and I think you accept the downside to accumulate 1st day picks...
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2007
  11. carolinatony

    carolinatony In the Starting Line-Up

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    Some of you guys should be in the war room with BB. You really know your football. I'm impressed
    Good stuff
     
  12. sebman2112

    sebman2112 In the Starting Line-Up

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    The price of guy's taken in the early-mid second isn't that much less than guy's taken in the late first round. The other part of your comment does make sense, and I've thought about these type of trades a lot.

    I guess it comes down to what you'd rather have, a longer contract or an extra pick in '07/'08
     
  13. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    Yeah, I actually thought about that after my post. The difference between #28 and a pick in the 40-50 range probably isn't that large...at least not enough to be a major factor in the decision to trade down or stay put.
     
  14. psychoPat

    psychoPat Role Player PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Forget the order.
    But hasn't almost everyone posting here
    had LB and secondary
    as the DayOne picks for months now?
     
  15. WhiZa

    WhiZa Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I can agree with that for certain positions. OL for one will have a better chance to start right away (like Mankins and Light did). Harris and Merriwether could be second year starters.
     
  16. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    I haven't been a Meriweather booster, but I wouldn't be unhappy with that pair of players. My objection to Meriweather isn't any one thing, just a bunch of little question marks that together make him less than a solid round-1 prospect in my eyes.
     
  17. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yeah, I'd agree but with all the meetings with the Pats, they've probably worked it out in their minds so I wouldn't choke on my nachos if his name is called.
     
  18. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    The order of the picks was my entire point. Popular opinion seems to be focused on LB and S in the first round, and for good reasons. My point was that the cupboard could be fairly bare in 2008 at CB (no offense Ellis). I have no special insight that tells me that the Pats will prioritize a CB with pick #24 or a trade-up. My point was that if the Pats place a premium on getting a CB that they expect to start in 2008, getting that out of the way first on day 1 would seem like a good plan.

    Now I might ask you what the point of your response was? I can appreciate you want to eliminate the "clutter" on the board. You might want to start with the "People have already said that" posts. I hate those...
     
  19. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    It is rational but I think the Patriots place a higher premium on BPA than we do. I picked Harris and Merriweather in my guesstimate, I think another just a likely technique to figure out their picks is to throw a dart against a wall. I also think that they will not expect any drafted player to be a primary starter in 07, both first rounders will likely be situational players.

    Although not directly related, it was mentioned in the thread so with the door open I will jump in. I am not sold on the move to zone blocking, I am ok if we incorporate pieces of it into our offense but Dante's approach has been very successful. He has done a great job building a deep quality unit, why make dramatic changes to something that works. I am especially concerned if the move is based purely on Maroney's style of running, Maroney is still very much unproven in the NFL, if he becomes an elite back I will happily eat my words but I am concerned about his durability.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2007
  20. DW Toys

    DW Toys In the Starting Line-Up

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    Cousin, You have put a lot of thought into this and I respect you choices. I respectfully disagree about the needs.
    If the Assante issue blows up, regardless of the James signing, we need a CB. One who can contribute in 07 asap.
    I will give you ILB as a definate issue so we aren't robbing Peter to Pay Paul in the set positions. He must be also able to play immediately. Which is why IMO FA Hartwell is almost like a draft choice cause he would start in 07. He has visited the Pats and he is 99% healthy. He is a stud when healthy and there is no learning curve. He is still young. But he has that 'sperience.
    If we don't go that way, Willis would be my choice and I think the Pats can trade down to #11 to get him swapping #24 and #28 for the Niners #11 in the first and their 2nd rounder at #42. Depending on whos' stupid NFL Draft value chart you look at (some say ours are 1400 and some say 1500) the numbers are close. and two first in this draft, even lower, might trump a higher first rounder. It's a weird year with only 1-18 as true first rounders and 19-99 as very close in value.
    I would be for Harris, but he has definately slipped in my mocks and Brandon Siler is really under the radar. He's a little bigger and faster. He blitzes better:
    Strengths:
    Has pretty good size and a solid build...Smart with great instincts...Outstanding leader with top-notch intangibles...Strong and powerful...A big hitter and reliable tackler...Good pass rusher and blitzer...Does a nice job versus the run and takes on blockers well...Plays with a nasty demeanor...Productive...A lot of experience.

    Now on Staley. I disagree we are desperate for help in the OL. We have no less than five OT who have all started in the NFL (six if you count Mankins). They are all young. Does a guy like a Staley come in and sit the others? Nope. Is he an actual proven talent that is tons better than the others? Nope (did any of you see the Senior Bowl? It was only one game but.......Yikes!). He more than likely winds up as a DNP. Why waste the pick? Yes he'll eventually be in the mix if the Pats see him as a great future LOT, but for 07 we are pressed in filling slots to make a SB run. If we take an OL in 07 in the high rounds, we lose an opportunity to get to our other needs with decent talent available in those slots in a fairly weak draft. Round 5 has given us Kopen and O'Ccallaghan. There is a kid named Denman at Fresno St. (Coach Pat Hill is BB close friend)who is shooting up the boards and might work out to be as good as Staley. He's a round 5 kid.

    We have one Safety IMO that is worthwhile. Safety and ILB are the top two needs. I am not a Merriweather fan but would take him if need be. I see Griffin, Rouse, Weddle, Piscatelli, Wendling and Gattis as other choices.

    ILB and S trumps OT and OG in 07 (CB if we have issues in camp). Don't believe the BPA. Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Look at 06. over 50% of who we drafted were for upgrading as you say "weak" spots.

    We could go S then ILB and CB in three. Or if the Niners deal works, Willis et, al.
    DW Toys
     
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