Very good. # 1 in the NFL in fact.
No this is not a homer rant.
Caveat: this thread is not for those who don’t take much stock in, or are against “non-sense” computer power rating calculation, BCS and stuffs...
I am not an X-and-O football fan, but use probabilistic algorithms (Bayesian)
to rate the win capability of a team and predict the outcome of a game. Just for fun and betting. I know most fans don’t care much about computer ratings, but some betting people take this seriously (I do only small bet, <$500 a week, but some of my colleagues use our system for high rolling..)
The reason I start this thread is that this is for the 1st time this season
our computer model shows that the Pats have a good chance to win it all. (Las Vegas line is 9/1).
The Pats have jumped from #4 to #1 in our system thanks to their victory over the Jets.
(which was much more impressive that it appears)
AFC playoff team ratings:
Bal: 10.5 (overall) 11.2 (home) 9.6 (away)
NE: 10.5 (overall) 9.2 (home) 10.8 (away)
SD: 10.2 (overall) 11.9 (home) 8.7 (away)
Indy: 9.0 (overall) 12.1 (home) 7.4 (away)
There are many computerized power rating system out there, e. g. Sagarin (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl06.htm, DVOA, Troy Aikman,... they range from simplistic with a lot of fudge factors to highly complex, arcane algorithms. Examples of some lesser known rating calculations, but which are just as solid can be found, e. g. http://www.nutshellsports.com/wilson/nfl.html.
Our result is that the 4 top AFC teams are so close with each other now that any can beat any. If fact, on neutral ground, the Pats are slightly better than the Chargers.
Right now, our game model predicts SD-NE 26-24, mainly because of SD HFA. (The Pats’ away power is an advantage also, but not enough to overcome SD’s home). [Note: Our model is non-linear and non-commutative, and differs from many other models that use power rating linear subtraction to obtain point spread, which would not be able to generate paper-scissor-rock (Colts/Bronc/Pats) scenario. Our model actually produces a probabilistic outcome for a given game].
For this small 2-pt difference (1.7 to be exact), between SD-NE, it is practically statistically insignificant. So, all those accolades on the talented Chargers are just BS in our model. In terms of team play, the Pats are just as good mathematically.
I don’t have an explanation, but a conjecture: Individual standouts,
(e. g. probowlers) are for human-interest stories, but like BB said “the power
of the wolves is in the pack”. The style of the Pats play is to do a great job as a pack, which reduces the need of individual heroics that are good for high-light films.
Our model unfortunately cannot take into account of “post-season” effect, because there aren’t enough statistical data for “post-season”. (Not enough games).
So any post-season considerations, e. g. Belichick-Brady experience vs. Rivers’ inexperience cannot be quantified without some arbitrary fudge factors, (which are no-no’s in our model).
But if indeed, the Pats can raise their performance a notch in playoff, I would be very nervous and would not be that confident if I were a Chargers’ fan.
Same time last year before the Denver game, our model projected a loss. It really showed that the ‘05 Pats were just not good. (It projected the
Colts as the front runner, with Steelers and Broncs distant 2nd).
This year is really different. The Pats have risen to #1 now (on paper) and I am more optimistic (on paper).
No this is not a homer rant.
Caveat: this thread is not for those who don’t take much stock in, or are against “non-sense” computer power rating calculation, BCS and stuffs...
I am not an X-and-O football fan, but use probabilistic algorithms (Bayesian)
to rate the win capability of a team and predict the outcome of a game. Just for fun and betting. I know most fans don’t care much about computer ratings, but some betting people take this seriously (I do only small bet, <$500 a week, but some of my colleagues use our system for high rolling..)
The reason I start this thread is that this is for the 1st time this season
our computer model shows that the Pats have a good chance to win it all. (Las Vegas line is 9/1).
The Pats have jumped from #4 to #1 in our system thanks to their victory over the Jets.
(which was much more impressive that it appears)
AFC playoff team ratings:
Bal: 10.5 (overall) 11.2 (home) 9.6 (away)
NE: 10.5 (overall) 9.2 (home) 10.8 (away)
SD: 10.2 (overall) 11.9 (home) 8.7 (away)
Indy: 9.0 (overall) 12.1 (home) 7.4 (away)
There are many computerized power rating system out there, e. g. Sagarin (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl06.htm, DVOA, Troy Aikman,... they range from simplistic with a lot of fudge factors to highly complex, arcane algorithms. Examples of some lesser known rating calculations, but which are just as solid can be found, e. g. http://www.nutshellsports.com/wilson/nfl.html.
Our result is that the 4 top AFC teams are so close with each other now that any can beat any. If fact, on neutral ground, the Pats are slightly better than the Chargers.
Right now, our game model predicts SD-NE 26-24, mainly because of SD HFA. (The Pats’ away power is an advantage also, but not enough to overcome SD’s home). [Note: Our model is non-linear and non-commutative, and differs from many other models that use power rating linear subtraction to obtain point spread, which would not be able to generate paper-scissor-rock (Colts/Bronc/Pats) scenario. Our model actually produces a probabilistic outcome for a given game].
For this small 2-pt difference (1.7 to be exact), between SD-NE, it is practically statistically insignificant. So, all those accolades on the talented Chargers are just BS in our model. In terms of team play, the Pats are just as good mathematically.
I don’t have an explanation, but a conjecture: Individual standouts,
(e. g. probowlers) are for human-interest stories, but like BB said “the power
of the wolves is in the pack”. The style of the Pats play is to do a great job as a pack, which reduces the need of individual heroics that are good for high-light films.
Our model unfortunately cannot take into account of “post-season” effect, because there aren’t enough statistical data for “post-season”. (Not enough games).
So any post-season considerations, e. g. Belichick-Brady experience vs. Rivers’ inexperience cannot be quantified without some arbitrary fudge factors, (which are no-no’s in our model).
But if indeed, the Pats can raise their performance a notch in playoff, I would be very nervous and would not be that confident if I were a Chargers’ fan.
Same time last year before the Denver game, our model projected a loss. It really showed that the ‘05 Pats were just not good. (It projected the
Colts as the front runner, with Steelers and Broncs distant 2nd).
This year is really different. The Pats have risen to #1 now (on paper) and I am more optimistic (on paper).
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