How does Welker NOT make the Pro Bowl?

[mgteich]

......Not me.

anyone think that Derek Anderson should have made it over Big Ben and Garrard?

 

[bradmahn]

And how exactly do Housh's stats NOT "contribute to a "W"? They certainly don’t contribute to the "loss". :bricks: Wins and losses are a team effort. Welker plays on arguably the greatest passing team in the HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE. Id have to say that the match up's he has seen, balances out the 28more targets.

FWIW... "Targets" don’t necessarily mean "ON targets". It could just mean that he has been only one of a few (two) options in the passing game for most of the season (which he has been).

I hate to be "that guy," but Football Outsiders gives the advantage to Welker in nearly every statistical ranking. Obviously we'll just have to agree to disagree, but don't insult my opinion that Welker is more deserving of the Pro Bowl as homerism. It isn't.

 

[Mogamedogz]

Obviously we'll just have to agree to disagree, but don't insult my opinion that Welker is more deserving of the Pro Bowl as homerism. It isn't.

Well it's MY opinion that you giving the nod to Welker is "homerism". I dont intend to "insult" you. I just dont think you would feel the same way if Welker played on another team. To me, that is homerism.

Hey.. Im a homer when it comes to our boys too! We are all guilty of it sometimes.

 

[PatsDparty]

Housh has a slight edge in catches, yards and 3 more TDs. Their statistics are (for all intents and purposes) exactly the same. Wes is doing it on a 14-0 team, TJ is a "difference maker" on a 5-9 squad. Wes is considered the best at his position; TJ, not so much. I think Wes deserves to be there more than TJ.

NAME REC YDS AVG YPG LNG TD
TJ WR, CIN 101 1028 10.2 73.4 42 11
WW WR, NWE 96 1004 10.5 71.7 42 8

No the stats aren't the same, Housh's are better. Thus he's in over welker. Pro bowl is about stats, that's just the way it is.

 

[Ring 6]

There is a difference between how pro-bowlers are selected and how they SHOULD BE selected.
Personally, I would place a lot of value on teams success. This is ABSOLUTELY done with positions like OL where there aren't stats.
People are so stat obsessed (thanks fantasy football) that you can pretty much take the top guys off the statsheet and know who will be in the pro-bowl.
I do not come close to agreeing that the guy who accumulated the most stats played the best. To use some of the items in this thread, if I throw to you 2 more times every game, and you only have 5 more receptions after 14 games, it is very debatable that you played better than the guy who got 2 fewer passes to him every game.

As far as a guy on a 14-0 team vs a 5-9 team, I DO believe that matters. The purpose of the game is to win. The purpose of catching passes is to help your team win. Regardless of who else is on your team, catches in a loss DO have less value than catches in a win, because they did nothing to contribute to the goal. That may not be the players fault, but it is a fact TJHs stats had less value than Welkers.
The other factor is that when you are a WR on a losing team, you build up stats. You play against prevent defenses in the 4th quarter because you are so far behind, they allow you to catch passes, but not deep ones. That can radically skew #s.
Look at it this way....if 2 players had equal stats, but player A had 30 catches in the 4th quarter of wins, and player B has 30 in the 4th quarter of losses, are those numbers created equally? Of course not.

Welker DESERVES to be in the pro-bowl, but so do the 4 Wrs that were selected. You can absolutely split hairs and argue either way. Personally, my opinion would be if the numbers are in the same ballpark, the guy who built them while contributing to wins is more deserving than the guy who built them in losses. Its OK to have a different opinion, but mine is that winning is what its all about so I don't place a lot of awe on stats created while losing.

 

[BradyFTW!]

You could also argue that Welker has had the privilege of catching balls opposite Randy Moss, and from Tom Brady. It was close, and I was hoping he'd make it, but the Pro Bowl is a stat thing, and Welker's weren't quite there. He's still far more valuable to his team than Housh, so he'll just have to settle for that

 

[Ring 6]

Well it's MY opinion that you giving the nod to Welker is "homerism". I dont intend to "insult" you. I just dont think you would feel the same way if Welker played on another team. To me, that is homerism.

Hey.. Im a homer when it comes to our boys too! We are all guilty of it sometimes.

The real question isnt if he was on another team, but if he were on another 14-0 team.

 

[Mogamedogz]

As far as a guy on a 14-0 team vs a 5-9 team, I DO believe that matters. The purpose of the game is to win. The purpose of catching passes is to help your team win. Regardless of who else is on your team, catches in a loss DO have less value than catches in a win, because they did nothing to contribute to the goal. That may not be the players fault, but it is a fact TJHs stats had less value than Welkers. .

This argument is extremely flawed. How in the world did the passes that TJ caught this year, help his team win any less than Welkers?? Whether or not the "Team" actually won is completely irrelevant!! The production that Housh provided Cincy with ABSOLUTELY "contributed to the goal of winning". They certainly didn’t contribute to the team "losing". The outcome of the game was in NO WAY negatively affected by what Houshmandzadeh did. it is COMPLETELY false that his stats had "less value" than Welkers just because the Pats won. Both of their stats were equally valuable to the success of their teams. Every catch, yard, TD, Block, counted exactly the same. A yard gained is a yard gained, and it is a positive contribution towards the overall goal of a team win. Whether or not the team actually got the win is irrelevant when deciding between these guys for the Pro Bowl.

Now... if you want to debate which one of them has been "more valuable" to their team... then you MIGHT be on to something. But if Pro Bowl selections were based on that, Troy Brown should have gotten in MULTIPLE times over the course of his career.

 

[Ring 6]

This argument is extremely flawed. How in the world did the passes that TJ caught this year, help his team win any less than Welkers?? Whether or not the "Team" actually won is completely irrelevant!! The production that Housh provided Cincy with ABSOLUTELY "contributed to the goal of winning". They certainly didn’t contribute to the team "losing". The outcome of the game was in NO WAY negatively affected by what Houshmandzadeh did. it is COMPLETELY false that his stats had "less value" than Welkers just because the Pats won. Both of their stats were equally valuable to the success of their teams. Every catch, yard, TD, Block, counted exactly the same. A yard gained is a yard gained, and it is a positive contribution towards the overall goal of a team win. Whether or not the team actually got the win is irrelevant when deciding between these guys for the Pro Bowl.

Now... if you want to debate which one of them has been "more valuable" to their team... then you MIGHT be on to something. But if Pro Bowl selections were based on that, Troy Brown should have gotten in MULTIPLE times over the course of his career.

The argument is only flawed when seen through your criteria.
My criteria is that the point of playing the game is winning. I put little value in building stats while losing. We could go back and review every play each player made all year long, and you would find both made some good ones and some not so good. Welkers added up to winning, TJHs did not. Again that may not be his fault but the numbers are hollow.
TJH said HIMSELF last night that if he could trade the pro-bowl for the chance that if they won both of their last 2 games they could be in the playoffs, he would. He said he has mixed emotions, because while its nice to be honored, he isn't real excited because its about winning.

The bottom line to me is that the plays that you make need to contribute to winning. If you are making plays in an offense that scores on 50% of its drives (or whatever it is right now) is the highest scoring offense ever, and is undefeated, the value of your stats is not debatable. If you are on a disappointing 5-9 team, regardless of what your stats look like, those stats are shy the key plays that you could have made to win games.
Who was a better player?
1) The guy who catches 7 passes for 85 yards and a TD helping his team win
or
2) The guy who catches 7 for 85 and a TD in a game his team loses, and his catches 'kept it close' instead of being the plays that helped his team win

It seems you think its a tie. I don't, because it is a team game, not an individual game, and the value of players is determined in my book by adding the team goal of winning, not by playing well in a loss.

Feel free to disagree, but don't tell me what MY criteria for the pro-bowl should be. You think winning has nothing to do with it, and in practice you may be correct. But MY critieria is that the players honored should be the best players who made the best contributions. Catching a TD pass to bring your team to only behind 31-14 is useless in my book.

 

[Mogamedogz]

The argument is only flawed when seen through your criteria.
My criteria is that the point of playing the game is winning.

Is that not the point of the game for EVERY player? Isn’t that the point of making EVERY catch, every TD, every block?? To help your team try to win the game?

I put little value in building stats while losing.

Why?? Do they help the team win any "Less"??

Welkers added up to winning, TJHs did not. Again that may not be his fault but the numbers are hollow.

Welkers stats did NOT add up to the Patriots winning. The Patriots (as a team) added up to them winning. Welkers stats contributed towards the "goal" of winning the game. But SO DID HOUSHMANDZADEH's! Because "the team" failed to win, makes Housh's contribution towards the goal of winning the game, no less important than Welkers. His TD's counted for six... His yards helped advanced the ball... all in attempt to help win the game. You cant fault his performance because of poor play at other positions on the field. That's ridiculous (IMO).

The bottom line to me is that the plays that you make need to contribute to winning.

Again... Please explain to me how Housh's plays DID NOT contribute towards the goal of winning the game? Did his TD's count for 4 points because the rest of his team sucks?? No. they counted for six... just like Welkers. Every time he caught one, it put his team 6 points closer to WINNING. The Value is exactly the same from the stand point of individual contribution.

1) The guy who catches 7 passes for 85 yards and a TD helping his team win
or
2) The guy who catches 7 for 85 and a TD in a game his team loses, and his catches 'kept it close' instead of being the plays that helped his team win

Both players in the above example contributed EQUALLY in helping their teams win. Whether or not they "actually" won, matters not. The only difference is that Player #2 was on a "team" that put him in position to make catches that "kept it close".

Feel free to disagree, but don't tell me what MY criteria for the pro-bowl should be. You think winning has nothing to do with it, and in practice you may be correct. But MY criteria is that the players honored should be the best players who made the best contributions. Catching a TD pass to bring your team to only behind 31-14 is useless in my book.

Your criteria is just that... your criteria. I never told you what it "should be" (that's your opinion). IMO NO TD catch is "useless". It scores 6 points for your team... and contributes equally as much to your team winning the game, regardless of the outcome.

if this was a game of the "Most Valuable Players" in the league...Id likely agree with your criteria. But for "All-Star" or "Pro-Bowl" nods... I can’t.

 

[Hollywood_Brady]

a probowl snub maybe a good thing for player... maybe wes can elevate his play even more...

 

[stcjones]

He should be in there over Houshmanzadeh.

Dallas had 11 players picked

'


This is the f'in question of the century......Wes Welker IS A PRO BOWL player this year.....The guy has been PHENOMENAL this year.......and it is a SNUB that he was not selected. Only 3 wr's got in from AFC........right?

 

[stcjones]

I'd like to slant this the other way:

Given that Jacksonville has NO players going to the Pro Bowl, how does Matt Light MAKE the Pro Bowl?

Khalif Barnes should be there over him.

good points about Light...although he has played some really good games.....He has been a turnstile in many others....don't see this pick

 

[Ring 6]

good points about Light...although he has played some really good games.....He has been a turnstile in many others....don't see this pick

Exactly which games along the way of Brady having more time to throw than any NFL QB was Matt Light a turnstile?

 

[stcjones]

Exactly which games along the way of Brady having more time to throw than any NFL QB was Matt Light a turnstile?

Philly, Baltimore, and a bunch of rushed passes in Indy game...you didn't catch any of this andy....usually you are on top of things!

Kaczur was another guy who got beat frequently......I'm not trashing them overall....the pass protection early on....and even for the most part has been great by our OL.....but if you are going to point at Light in particular for Pro bowl work....I personally don't see it....there are others on the line much more deserving....don't you think?

 

[Ring 6]

Is that not the point of the game for EVERY player? Isn’t that the point of making EVERY catch, every TD, every block?? To help your team try to win the game?



Why?? Do they help the team win any "Less"??



Welkers stats did NOT add up to the Patriots winning. The Patriots (as a team) added up to them winning. Welkers stats contributed towards the "goal" of winning the game. But SO DID HOUSHMANDZADEH's! Because "the team" failed to win, makes Housh's contribution towards the goal of winning the game, no less important than Welkers. His TD's counted for six... His yards helped advanced the ball... all in attempt to help win the game. You cant fault his performance because of poor play at other positions on the field. That's ridiculous (IMO).




Again... Please explain to me how Housh's plays DID NOT contribute towards the goal of winning the game? Did his TD's count for 4 points because the rest of his team sucks?? No. they counted for six... just like Welkers. Every time he caught one, it put his team 6 points closer to WINNING. The Value is exactly the same from the stand point of individual contribution.




Both players in the above example contributed EQUALLY in helping their teams win. Whether or not they "actually" won, matters not. The only difference is that Player #2 was on a "team" that put him in position to make catches that "kept it close".




Your criteria is just that... your criteria. I never told you what it "should be" (that's your opinion). IMO NO TD catch is "useless". It scores 6 points for your team... and contributes equally as much to your team winning the game, regardless of the outcome.

if this was a game of the "Most Valuable Players" in the league...Id likely agree with your criteria. But for "All-Star" or "Pro-Bowl" nods... I can’t.

Again, I will repeat. Scoring a TD when the game is already out of hand and your team has lost is useless.
Why would you have different players if you were considering most valuable vs 'all star'. Your criteria seems to be that all star is unrelated to valuable. I disagree. Personally, I think the majority of players who make a pro bowl should be from winning teams. If a WR on the Dolphins has exactly the equal numbers as Welker, you are saying that its a toss up who should be selected, and i disagree. Production that doesnt contribute to a win has little value to me. Perhaps that means pro-bowl selections are affected by the players surrounding them. So? I want the guy at each position that contributed the most to his teams success. If I contribute as much as you statistically but your team wins and mine does not, you have contributed to winning, and I have not.

All statistics are not created equally. Some of TJHs stats came in garbage time when he was facing a defense that had already won the game and was playing prevent to let the clock run out. Those are meaningless stats to me.

 

[Ring 6]

Philly, Baltimore, and a bunch of rushed passes in Indy game...you didn't catch any of this andy....usually you are on top of things!

Kaczur was another guy who got beat frequently......I'm not trashing them overall....the pass protection early on....and even for the most part has been great by our OL.....but if you are going to point at Light in particular for Pro bowl work....I personally don't see it....there are others on the line much more deserving....don't you think?

OK, so you are picking out the 3 closest games of our undefeated season and using that as evidence that "Light was a turnstile" Did you watch those games?
Mankins and Koppen also made the probowl. Are you saying Neal and Kaczur are more deserving?
Light is the LT for the QB who has had the best season in the NFL, perhaps in NFL history, who has been sacked a meager # of times, and who EVERYONE describing the Patriots has said "Brady gets more time to throw than any QB in the league". If Light is the man blocking the best pass rusher, and Brady has more time to throw than any QB in the league, how do you justify calling him a turnstile?
He has been the best LT in the AFC this year.

 

[unoriginal]

good points about Light...although he has played some really good games.....He has been a turnstile in many others....don't see this pick

My point wasn't about Light, he's been very good this year.

My point was the complaining about only 8 Pats going to the Pro Bowl this year being some kind of snub because of our record. If that were the case, we should just to get send our entire starting roster, because everybody's perfect.

 

[Ring 6]

My point wasn't about Light, he's been very good this year.

My point was the complaining about only 8 Pats going to the Pro Bowl this year being some kind of snub because of our record. If that were the case, we should just to get send our entire starting roster, because everybody's perfect.

Honestly, I think 8 is pretty fair.
We could argue Welker, and personally I think him making it or not is a 50/50 argument.
We could argue Warren, but reallly a run stuffing 2gap DL is going to get overlooked often. I've always said that the quality of a team is way more about the worst 2 of the 11 players on the field at a given time than the best 2.
I think it is more of a complement that if the best 50% of the players were selected we'd have far more players on the team than anyone else than that if the best 6% are selected we have the most.

The bottom line to me is that we have on offense:
5 pro-bowl players
0 players that are BAD, at least a couple of which could be arguable pro-bowlers
on defense:
3 pro-bowl players
0 players that are bad, and in any given season just about any one of them could be selected as a pro-bowler, or at least in the argument

 

[frankiesfly]

He should be in there over Houshmanzadeh.

Dallas had 11 players picked

Why are people saying Welker should be in the pro bowl, and then talking about Dallas. Dallas/Welker........different conferences.