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How does this team compare to last year's team?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Patriot_in_NY, Sep 27, 2011.

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  1. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    BB always says "wins aren't as good as they look, and losses aren't as bad."

    Taking that a bit further, spending about 10 minutes on these forums, it is so easy for the "under educated" to jump to the conclusion that the 2011 Patriots are little more then "a great offense and a sh!tty defense". Well, I actually looked at a few comparative stats and have come to the conclusion that BB is 100% right- "This OFFENSE isn't nearly as good as we think, and this DEFENSE isn't nearly as bad as we think.

    I back up my claim with some FACTS from the CHFF Site which is great at pointing to stats that matter. For those not familiar, they have something called quality stats. They are called that because, they correlate directly to wins/losses. To huge ones are Bendability (defense) and Scoreability (offense). What those measure are efficiency in offense and stinginess on defense. It's a combination of yds allowed/gained and points scored.

    For bendability (defense), it measures how many yds your defenses make opposing offense go before scoring a point. Obviously a team with a real low number is a sieve, because they allow more pts per yard earned. The higher the number, the stingier a defense is because offenses have "go further" for every point. You get the idea. Conversely, scoreability measures offensive efficiency by determining how far your offense has to go for every point scored. Low numbers are good (they score lots and quickly). Higher numbers means your offense is working to hard to earn points and your probably leaving points on the field.

    Last year (until playoff), we'll all agree that we had the best team, record and performance wise in the NFL. Of course, we also were very highly ranked in the league for both Bendability (4th w/18.61 yds per pt) and Scoreability (1st with 11.35 ids per pt). We scored early and often and our D generally made you earn your score. For this exercise, I looked at where were last year after 3 games for both these figures and sure enough, it tells me exactly what I remember. Offense was good and defense was a work in progress. We basically watched them mature every week until they were pretty good by the end. We all know this D will likely improve as well.

    After three games last year we were also at 2-1, and we had a bendability of 13.87 yds for every point scored against us. Considering where we ended (18.61 yds/pt), you can see just how well we improved. For scoreability, we were at 12.35 yds for every point we scored which is pretty good and we only got a marginally better through the year (11.35 yds/pt at the end)

    Now, after three weeks this year. Where we at?

    Offense:
    Been fun to watch all those yards, but have we been efficient? So far we are averaging 540.3 yds/game and only scoring 34.7 points. That's a scoreability rating of 15.5 yards per point scored, which is SIGNIFICANTLY more then last year at this point. We haven't been nearly as efficient at scoring points. Sure, yards are great, but if you drive 90 yards then throw an interception, you've done nothing. Granted, the 5 picks this year has a lot to do with our current rating, but hey, they are part of the package. We have to do a much better job on offense scoring points in an efficient manner to lower that number down into the 11-13 yds/pt range. This number will improve as we take better care of the ball going forward.

    Defense:
    Last year, we started out rough and got better as we went judging by the numbers above, and this year…….. We didn't start of nearly as bad as we did last year. Right now, we're allowing 468 yds offense and 26.3 points per game. We're making offenses drive 17.82 yards for every point they get. Sure, our safeties can't cover a fire hydrant, but when it matters, we're either making a stop, Int, or allowing a FG instead of TD, at least up this this point compared to last year. I expect, as we improve defensively, this number will rise and we'll end up being being one of the stingier defenses as far as making teams earn their points. We certainly are ahead of where were at this point last year.

    Now, I know there are lots of facts and figures that people will throw out how the above analysis is wrong or flawed thinking. But, when it comes right down to it……….. BB is still 100% right………. This offense isn't nearly as good (efficient) as we think, and this defense isn't nearly as bad as we think. (at least compared to last year's D, which turned out to be pretty good).

    I think we're gonna end up fine as the defense matures, and our offense settles down a bit an isn't so reckless with the rock and we balance in some more running. let's settle back and enjoy the season a bit. :)
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 27, 2011
  2. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    Offense is better, but what I like is that we have Ridley and Vereen as potential additions when the weather gets cold. We are better because Welker is quicker and not dropping balls, the two young TEs have another year of experience, and Brady has full confidence is almost everyone on the field. If Ochocinco and/or Price and make an impact, this could be even better yet.

    Defense is worse, much worse, but they will improve from here. Last year they had an identity with players knowing what roles they had. This year there is so much flux in scheme, player turnaround, etc., that they just look like 11 players with no particular function other than to stop a play. I am concerned that the trading of Merriweather and Sanders, along with the injuries, are going to make it tough to become a good unit. Can't believe how awful Carter and Ellis have been through two games. You'd think that in 45 passing plays, you might at least touch the quarterback once before he throws the ball.
  3. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    Ice, the stats that matter do not support this. Our offense has to go further for every point they score. That is WORSE in execution (not personnel necessarily) then they were in the first 3 games of last year.

    Defense is the opposite....... Offenses barely had to work to earn points last year (13 yrd/pt) in the first three games. This year, we started with a number that is 4 yds more. That will eventually move the PPG number down as our defense gets even better and make more plays.
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  4. borg

    borg Rookie

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    Passing game great
    Running game mediocre
    Defense awful

    Being "under educated", that's all I got. Good thing you are kind enough to spread your widom for the rest of us lesser folks
  5. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    If you are starting "has the gamed passed BB by" threads...... then yeah. Your one of the undereducated. If not, probably doesn't refer to you.

    Anyway, your welcome...... now maybe you can enjoys the games a little more on Sunday's knowing the it's not as bad as you think ;)
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  6. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    How does this team compare to last year's team?

    To quote the late, great Ty Webb - "By height"

    Seriously, I don't really even truly judge a team until 5-6 weeks. With the lost offseason, we might have to wait until week 7-8. Talk to me then.
  7. BlueThunder

    BlueThunder Rookie

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    All those long pass completions by the Bills sure makes me think this defense is worse than last year's.....

    It doesn't pass the eye test....:p
  8. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    Or you don't remember the long pass plays by the Bengals, Jets and Bills last year. Remember... We're only comparing the first 3 games of the year for both seasons.
  9. BlueThunder

    BlueThunder Rookie

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    Maybe this D gets cohesive and better....but not so far.....

    Ras I and Chung may help the back end...maybe Haynesworth playing can help up front.....McCourty has to improve as well as Bodden who was seen chasing WR's down the field all game.....not pretty
  10. sbpatfan

    sbpatfan Banned

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    Those stats are stupid. If brady threw a pick on the one yard line, would you say the defense sucks because the have a bendability of 7 points to 1 yard after its punched in? Yes, our offense sucks because they had to work hard on 90+ yard drives. What those stats fail to realize is the defense and offense is intertwined and their are far to many scenarios to just divide two numbers, order them, and say this ones the best. Also, say bendability or scorability out loud. It makes you sound retarded. Grammar sucks - phone.
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  11. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    1. A 16-game sample size minimizes the effect of outliers like that. Even your extreme example of a 1 yard drive for a TD would've lowered the 2010 Pats' Bendability by .4, a change of roughly 2%.

    2. The guys at CHFF have shown the correlation of all of their stats to winning football games. Don't hate if you can't understand.
  12. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    OVERALL PROSPECTS COMPARED TO LAST YEAR
    As was the case this time last year, we are likely to win the division as we have in 8 of the past 10 years. The first goal, as Parcells taught us, is to get into the second season. Overall, we're short a blocking TE and a FS (or a swing OT and a FS if Solder is the blocking TE). The rest is much better than in 2010.

    OFFENSE
    1) The passing game is as good as last year. We need to pass less, but that will come as the new OL get better at run blocking. Gronkowksi and Hernandez have a year more experience. Ocho and Price should contribute at least as much as Tate and Price last year (27 catches for the season).
    2) Curiously, the offensive line line is improved, even though it was among the very best last year. Waters is an improvment at RG. Connolly is almost as good at center. And Solder is a much better backup and sometime starter.
    3) Losing Crumpler is a major loss, although when everyone is healthy, Solder can pick up the slack as a blocking TE.
    4) The running game should be as good as last year. We've added Ridley and Vareen. Faulk should be back for the last half of the season.
    BOTTOM LINE: The offense is fine and as good as last year, the best of the best.
    =====================================================

    DEFENSE - DE/OLB
    We had Banta-Cain, G. Warren, Brace and Deaderick.
    We now have Haynsworth, Ellis, Carter, Anderson and we can have Brace or Deaderick back (or even Warren if we want).
    This line is NOT worse than last year. We're 2-1. There's a long way to go.

    DEFENSE - ILB/MLB
    Mayo, Spikes, Guyton and Fletcher should be expected to be as good as last year.

    DEFENSE - CORNERS
    Let's be real! We replaced Butler and Wilhite with Bodden and Darling. Give it time. This is our best defensive unit.

    DEFENSE - SAFETIES
    We dumped Meriweather and Sanders for Barrett and Ihedigbo. I will never understand not having one additional veteran safety. We might have re-signed Page. We might have retained Meriweather or Sanders. We might have signed a free agent. We might have traded for a free safety. We did nothing.

    BOTTOM LINE
    The defense should be better. Belichick will figure out what to do at free safety.
    ======================================================
  13. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    The stats aren't stupid. Your evaluation..well....that's a different thread.

    Actually, by trying to denegrate the OP's analysis, you prove him correct.

    I know this will sail way over your head but here's the point:

    Bendability measures if you can take advantage of your chances

    If every drive started at the opponent's one yard like, you have a great chance you are going to win. Since getting to the one means either turnover or great special teams, this confirms a universal truth of football.

    Turnovers matter
    Great special teams matter.
    Field position matters.
  14. SyN65

    SyN65 Rookie

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    Pretty comparable. I do think it's better though. Better offense, same crappy defense. Could definitely see this team going 14-2 or 13-3 and blowing it in the playoffs again. That hurt to write. :(
  15. borg

    borg Rookie

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    The best player on the defense is Brady. Brady engineers so many scoring drives that the subsequent kickoffs force the opposition to start at their own 20. If the Patriot offense was just average, the opposition would be starting their drives with better field position...therefore less yards to travel, but increased scoring would be the likely result. If you can't stop em for 80 yds, then those 50 yds drives come more frequently.
  16. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    Re: Hoes does this team compare to last year's team?

    Going by the title,I guess this years team is full of a bunch of 'hoes' :cool:
  17. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    The offense is better. Last year our offense did not hit stride until game #9 (the Steeler game) before that game I'm really not sure how we managed to pull wins out. Remember our offense struggling a bit in the Vikings, Ravens, and especially Chargers wins. They looked pretty bad in the 2 losses as well. This year we are flying right out the gate.

    The defense at this point in the season is about = what it was last year at this point. I remember similar threads and panic after the first Buffalo game last year too where we won a shootout with them. Lots of issues and again, around game #9 they started playing at a whole nother level. Totally dominant in 4 of the last 5 games. I wouldn't be suprised to see a similar result this year, kind of a bummer as I was expecting improvement which is still not out of the question but I don't see it's ceiling any higher than last year given the injuries to Wright/Pryor and our current safety situation :(
  18. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Both teams 2-1

    Both teams had bad defenses

    Both teams had offenses with a lot of talent and a high end receiver to gripe about

    Both teams had their loss aided by Brady screw ups





    Seem pretty similar
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  19. LasVegasPatsFan

    LasVegasPatsFan Rookie

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    Through 3 games... Last year the defense gave up 82pts. This year it is 79pts. At least its some kind of improvement.
  20. NEPatriot

    NEPatriot Banned

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    I think it's way to early to draw any conclusions. We've only played 3 games. That said, as others have stated, the offense looks good. As for the defense, as I recall we didn't start last year very well. However, we did make improvements as the year went on.
  21. TheSolderKing

    TheSolderKing Rookie

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    Has our D had a good game yet???

    I am at at a crossroads b/c I really thought this D had a chance to be ok. I realize we are injured, but healthy or not imo we suck.


    How much can we expect to improve realistically and what makes you think vast improvement will or won't occurt?
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  22. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    After Three games the O-line and recivers are better particulrly the TE. Bradys the same he throws INT's in bunch's i wouldn't be shocked if he only threw a couple more the rest of the year. So far the defense is worse all around but i think the D-line and LB's will jell. The Safety position .......fugedaboutit
  23. Observer

    Observer Rookie

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    The 'bendability' is a stat but it is not a measure of defense as you point out. It combines both offensive and defensive performance. All it says is that long drives were necessary to score points which would follow if you are scoring prolifically and punting well. We do not need this special index to know that the TEAM did well. 14-2 suffices. Conversely we do not need this index to see that the defense is poor.
    This is not statistical mechanics where we are trying to understand a world where we simply cannot see nor is it economics where there is simply no other measure but statistics. There is a better ways to evaluate a football team - that is by watching! Trying to find a statistical success when a basic eyeball test is failing is fallacy. If anything it shows that the statistical measure is not measuring what you think it is.
    This defense cannot stop the opponent from scoring on it. Its as simple as that!
  24. Run DMC

    Run DMC Rookie

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    Oh, you're just overreacting! We are so strong at the safety posiiton. Barrett is a stud. You should have been around for the 1977 season. Heck, I remember...blah, blah, blah. ;)
  25. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    1) No, that is absolutely not correct.

    2) No, it really isn't.
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  26. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    The defense has nowhere to go but up,but even then if they were ranked higher than 25th in the league that would be miraculous.

    This team will win games when they score 35 or more points...anything below 35 is going to be a struggle.

    Same problem...3 years in a row and apparently nothing to change it until 2012 so we hope every Sunday Brady limits mistakes and they score 35+
  27. Observer

    Observer Rookie

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    :rofl:
    Give the man a prize somebody for his brilliant insight. And where is our bendability winners trophy while we are at it?

    From the website that invented 'bendability':

    "But remember, the Bendability Index is not merely an defensive indicator! It is a team-wide measurement of ability to keep opponents off the scoreboard. It takes into account a variety of factors (including proficiency of offense and special teams, red zone defense, and turnover differential) and then spits it all out in an easy-to-understand number."
  28. juny

    juny Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Yeah so far this year, the same flaws that were exposed in the past two playoffs are still existent. Luckily there are 13 games to improve.
  29. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    Outside of a few posters on here that really can't get beyond what they think they know (and probably should bother to comment since they have no clue)...... I hope that my overriding point comes through.

    On Offense, we are really extraordinary (probably even better, personnel-wise, then last year). With that said. Those interceptions really hurt from an efficiency standpoint. You cannot overstate what that did to our capabilities on offense. Out of 12 possessions, we scored on 5, had 3 punts and 4 Int's. Take out those Int's and we were scoring on 62.5% of our possessions. Take away one bonehead play away, and we probably win that game, cuz the Bills converted all 4 Ints into points.

    Our scoreability is would be much better aside from those Int's, which we really need to limit.

    Defensively, I think people really have NO CLUE how this defense is built. Most would say we had fairly decent defense last year, certainly enough to protect most leads. But I don't think many of you are specifically recalling just how bad our defense was at the beginning of the year last year. It was kind of like this one.......... with one major exception........ this defense outside the Buffalo game (where it was depleted with injury) has already proven that it can make that crucial stop when the time comes and the defense gets down towards the red area.

    There have been 34 offensive drives against this defense this year. 5 have been stoned for zero points beyond 50 yards. Another words, 15% of the time teams are driving on us, this defense ends up making a play and getting a takeaway either through an Int. or downs.

    Last year, through 3 games, we gave up just as many points (a few more actually), a few less yards, and we stopped a long drive with a crucial play on exactly 0% of the time. That's right, though 30 drives, we did not stop a long drive ONE time. Any points that opposing teams left on the field were missed FG's.

    This defense, is better through 3 games this year then we were through 3 games last year, with a proven ability to make some plays that last year we didn't. As we gel, get better with experience, and get a little healthier.... this defense will be better then we were last year.

    Things are not as bleak as you think on defense. That is really my whole point.
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  30. iapatsfan

    iapatsfan Rookie

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    I know it's only 3 games in, but all three QBs we've faced have had their best games to date against our D. That is not good. I have watched a lot of games this season, and I have yet to see a pass D as bad as ours. Anybody want to bet that Jason Campbell has his best game so far this weekend. He had 323 yds and 2 TD against Buffalo. I'll take the over. I know they like to run it with McFadden, but why do that when you can have an in game 7 on 7 drill with the worst pass defense in the NFL?
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