Historically, The first round is a crapshoot

[PatsFan37]

Ty Warren is gradually fulfilling the promise. Let's give Wilfork and Mankins another year or two. But so far so good.

Graham was a nice player for sure. Great blocker but his career shows him having very average hands. He was touted as the complete package coming out of college.

Watson has shown flashes of special play. But those flashes don't make me consider him great 1st rounder.

Maroney's situation is similar to Watson's. This season will be a nice litmus test.

Ty Warren is gradually fulfilling his promise. Wilfork and Mankins are coming along. Wow. That's a tough standard you're keeping.

Those guys are beasts and they are exactly what I hope for in a 1st round pick.

The most telling line to your changing standards is this: "those flashes don't make me consider him great 1st rounder"

So you are right, and you were right all along. The first round is a crapshoot, because you can only count on a few first rounders to be better than the rest of the first rounders. The rest will be average first rounders.

By definition.

 

[PatsFan37]

Here's what I'll do and it'll be a little wekend project of mine.

I'll compile a list of all first round picks that didn't pan out. Although I'm sure I presented my original post incorrectly as to what the criteria were, the base criteria will be "solid contributor/even as a reserve".

Let's see what I come up with.

Save yourself a little trouble and prove (or disprove) your thesis as follows:

Tote up the distribution of the pro-bowl for any year by draft round. If the first round is a bigger crapshoot than the later rounds, it will have proportionately fewer players. Later rounds even have a slight advantage since they have more players due to compensatory picks.

I realize the pro-bowl is not a perfect measure (favors players from the weaker conference and favors media-stars), but it's quick and telling.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think the majority of fans and most importantly the teams themselves look at players taken in round one optimumly as franchise impacting players. The is reinforced by the level of salary given to 1st rounders as opposed to later rounds.

To me, the baseline for a first rounder is a guy like Al Wilson taken by Denver as the last pick in the first round. Every year was productive for him and also he brought leadership and cohesion to his team. Was a pro bowler 5 times. Will he be a Hall of Famer? Probably not. He had decent players around him for most of his career, but you know for a fact he would have excelled wherever he played.

A guy like him is the least you should expect from a first rounder.

Obviously teams are hoping to get a special player with a 1st round pick but if the guy never turns into anything but a solid, average, yearly starter I don't think you can really call that pick a "bust". However if you pay a lot to move up for that player or take him with a very high selection (top 5 say), then I'd be more willing to call an average, solid player a 1st round bust.

Here's a question for you, do you consider Keyshawn Johnson who was taken with the #1 overall pick a bust according to your stated standards?

I think if you consider round 1 versus rounds 2-7, of course Rounds 2-7 will win out, there are simply more players taken in the latter rounds. By sheer numbers you are going to get more players, and some of them will turn out to be excellent players. Marques Colston of course is the most recent example of this.

 

[DaBruinz]

That was never my implication.

My point was that after 17 years, overall only 25% or less actually made some kind of contribution in the league, ranging from HOF caliber to substantial reserve contributer.

Let's look at the 2002 draft. I chose it because a good enough time has past to gauge what these guys are all about. Look at the names and you tell me how many are living up to there first round billing. I'll highlight who I think has performed to expectations, namely high impact players worthy of their salaries.

1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
2 Carolina Julius Peppers DE North Carolina
3 Detroit Joey Harrington QB Oregon
4 Buffalo Mike Williams T Texas
5 San Diego Quentin Jammer CB Texas
6 Kansas City Ryan Sims DT North Carolina
7 Minnesota Bryant McKinnie T Miami
8 Dallas Roy Williams SS Oklahoma
9 Jacksonville John Henderson DT Tennessee 10 Cincinnati Levi Jones T Arizona State
11 Indianapolis Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse 12 Arizona Wendell Bryant DT Wisconsin
13 New Orleans Donte' Stallworth WR Tennessee
14 N.Y. Giants Jeremy Shockey TE Miami
15 Tennessee Albert Haynesworth DT Tennessee
16 Cleveland William Green RB Boston College
17 Oakland Phillip Buchanon CB Miami
18 Atlanta T.J. Duckett RB Michigan State
19 Denver Ashley Lelie WR Hawaii
20 Green Bay Javon Walker WR Florida State
21 New England Daniel Graham TE Colorado
22 N.Y. Jets Bryan Thomas DE Ala.-Birmingham
23 Oakland Napoleon Harris MLB Northwestern
24 Baltimore Ed Reed FS Miami 25 New Orleans Charles Grant DE Georgia
26 Philadelphia Lito Sheppard CB Florida
27 San Francisco Mike Rumph CB Miami
28 Seattle Jerramy Stevens TE Washington
29 Chicago Marc Colombo T Boston College
30 Pittsburgh Kendall Simmons G Auburn
31 St. Louis Robert Thomas MLB UCLA
32 Washington Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane

That's 28%. My criteria has never changed from my first comment of the thread. Aside from a total bust, you'd hope to get at least a solid everday player. But that to me is not what a first rounder is. A first round talents contribution should be equivalent to their salary.

Sorry, but your criteria DID change. Look at your initial post:

"I found something interesting. Less than 25% of the 1st round picks during during that 17 year period actually panned out to be substantial contributors in the NFL. I'm not talking about, Pro-bowl level or Hall of famer level performers here. Just starters or even contributing a decent amount of playing time as a reserve, which should be less than expected from a 1st rounder.[/quote]

Yet, when I mention guys like Marvin Jones and Curtis Conway you immediately nix them. However, they, most certainly do fit your criteria of being "starters or contributing a decent amount of playing time."

Heck, I could also include others like OJ McDuffie and Alvin Harper. Since they both fit into that category also.