Historical Perspective: First Round RBs since 1982.

[PonyExpress]

What are Maroney’s chances of becoming a Franchise Running Back?

I believe a franchise RB is one who gains 1,000 yards three or more times. If a player isn’t durable enough he won’t make it to 3, and if he isn’t talented enough the team won’t give him the carries needed to make it to 3.

Since 1982, 21 out of 87 Rbs drafted in the first rd, or 24%, have had 3 or more years of 1,000 yards. The numbers could be higher, but McGahee, Cadillac Williams, Stephen Jackson, Larry Johnson et. al., have incomplete careers.

The “lucky†21 are:
Emmit Smith (11)
Barry Sanders (10)
Jerome Bettis (8)
Eric ****erson (7)
Marshall Faulk (7)
Eddie George (7)
L. Tomlinson (5)
Shaun Alexander (5)
Edgerrin James (5)
Fred Taylor (5)
Rodney Hampton (5)
Curt Warner (4)
Ricky Williams (4)
Jamal Lewis (4)
Garrison Hearst (4)
Robert Smith (4)
Warrick Dunn (4)
Marcus Allen (3)
Gerald Riggs (3)
Deuce McCalister (3)
Neal Anderson (3)

Here are all the 1st rd rbs, by year, and in the order they were drafted.

1982
Darrin Nelson (0)
Gerald Riggs (3)
Marcus Allen (3)
Walter Abercrombie(0)
Barry Redden (0)
Butch Woolfolk (0)
Gerald willhite (0)

1983
****erson (7)
Curt Warner (4)
Michael Haddix (0)
James Jones (0)

1984
No RBs selected in 1st Rd

1985
George Adams(0)
Steve Sewell (0)
Lorenzo Hampton (0)

1986
Keith Byars (0)
John Williams (0)
Ronnie Harmon (0)
Reggie Dupard (0)
Neal Anderson (3)

1987
Alonzo Highsmith (0)
Brent Fullwood (0)
DJ Dozier (0)
Paul Palmer (0)
Roger Vick (0)
Rod Bernstine (0)
Terrence Flagler (0)

1988
Gaston Green (1)
John Stephens (1)
Lorenzo White (1)
Brad Muster (0)
Craig Heyward (1)

1989
Barry Sanders (10)
Tim Worley (0)
Sammie Smith (0)
Cleveland Gary (1)

1990
Blair Thomas (0)
Emmitt Smith (11)
Darrell Thompson (0)
Steve Broussard (0)
Rodney Hampton (5)
Dexter Carter (0)

1991
Leonard Russell (1)
Harvey Williams (1)
Jarrod Bunch (0)

1992
Tommy Vardell (0)
Vaughn Dunbar (0)
Tony Smith (0)

1993
Garrison Hearst (4)
Jerome Bettis (8)
Robert Smith (4)

1994
Marshall Faulk (7)
Greg Hill (0)

1995
Kijana Carter (0)
Tyrone Wheatley (1)
Napoleon Kaufman (1)
James Stewart (2)
Rashaan Salaam (1)

1996
Lawrence Philips (0)
Biakabatuka (0)
Eddie George (7)

1997
Warrick Dunn (4)
Antowain Smith (2)

1998
Curtis Enis (0)
Fred Taylor (5)
Robert Edwards (1)
John Avery (0)

1999
E. James (5)
Ricky Williams (4)

2000
Jamal Lewis (4)
Thomas Jones (1)
Ron Dayne (0)
Shaun Alexander (5)
Trung Canidate (0)

2001
LTomlinson (5)
Deuce McCalister (3)
Michael Bennett (1)

2002
William Green (1)
TJ Duckett (0)

2003
McGahee (2 INC)
Larry Johnson (1 INC)

2004
St. Jackson (1 INC)
Chris Perry (0 INC)
Kevin Jones (1 INC)

2005
R. Brown (0 INC)
C. Benson (0 INC)
Cad. Williams (1 INC)

 

[spacecrime]

What are Maroney’s chances of becoming a Franchise Running Back?

I believe a franchise RB is one who gains 1,000 yards three or more times. If a player isn’t durable enough he won’t make it to 3, and if he isn’t talented enough the team won’t give him the carries needed to make it to 3.

Since 1982, 21 out of 87 Rbs drafted in the first rd, or 24%, have had 3 or more years of 1,000 yards. The numbers could be higher, but McGahee, Cadillac Williams, Stephen Jackson, Larry Johnson et. al., have incomplete careers.

You left out Bush, Maroney, Williams and Addai. They also did not gain 1000 yards in three different NFL seasosn. Silly huh? Not any sillier than including Ronnie Brown as one of the 87 guys who didn't make 1000 yards for three years. You should delete all active RBs from the calculation before you say that only 24% percent made 1000 yards three times in his career.

How do second round RBs look? Fifth round? UDFA?

 

[BelichickFan]

How do second round RBs look? Fifth round? UDFA?

Not to mention other positions . . . not that they're all so easily measured.

 

[PonyExpress]

You left out Bush, Maroney, Williams and Addai. They also did not gain 1000 yards in three different NFL seasosn. Silly huh? Not any sillier than including Ronnie Brown as one of the 87 guys who didn't make 1000 yards for three years. You should delete all active RBs from the calculation before you say that only 24% percent made 1000 yards three times in his career.

How do second round RBs look? Fifth round? UDFA?

I mentioned in the opening paragraph that their numbers were incomplete: "The numbers could be higher, but McGahee, Cadillac Williams, Stephen Jackson, Larry Johnson et. al., have incomplete careers".
You should read more closely. Secondly, 2nd rd, 5th rd, and UDFA Rbs % of success is much lower than the first rd %. The chances of finding a Franchise Rb outside of the first round are extremely low.

 

[SamBamsFan]

... and since '95 only two big-10 backs drafted in the 1st round have gained 1000 yards- Eddie George & Larry Johnson... Not that I know what that means really...

 

[PonyExpress]

The point of the excercise is not to discourage everyone about Maroney, but to show that the RB position in the draft is a gamble, a delicate one, and obviously BB is aware of that. For BB to take that risk in the first rd, Maroney must be a very special player. If he avoids injury I have every confidence he will succeed and become the bell-cow franchise RB we haven't had since Curtis.

 

[spacecrime]

I mentioned in the opening paragraph that their numbers were incomplete: "The numbers could be higher, but McGahee, Cadillac Williams, Stephen Jackson, Larry Johnson et. al., have incomplete careers".
You should read more closely.

I read closely. You said they were incomplete. I agree. My problem is that you included them in the calculations as an unsuccessful RB. You have 66 RBs drafted in the first round that are unsuccessful by your definition (they did not gain 1000 yards in three separate seasons), and you include Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, etc in the 66.

This gives you a false percentage when talking about the percentage of successful RBs.

I said all this in my first post:

You should delete all active RBs from the calculation before you say that only 24% percent made 1000 yards three times in his career.

You should read more closely

 

[PonyExpress]

I read closely. You said they were incomplete. I agree. My problem is that you included them in the calculations as an unsuccessful RB. You have 66 RBs drafted in the first round that are unsuccessful by your definition (they did not gain 1000 yards in three separate seasons), and you include Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, etc in the 66.

This gives you a false percentage when talking about the percentage of successful RBs.

I said all this in my first post:



You should read more closely

I see no reason to count these running backs as franchise runners until they have proved it. I feel it is far more logical to assume they won't be franchise runners until they prove it on the field. If you feel the need to remove them, then do so and calculate your own numbers.

 

[lobster]

How many RB's on your list were drafted as Juniors?

 

[Gon_Trevil]

I look at it slightly different. The thing is, football now ain't the same it was 20 years ago. What I see is a marked improvement in how things did drafting running backs between 1997 and 2001, to the tune of 42%. The guys from 2002 onward haven't had much of a chance yet, but if you look at what LJ, McGahee, S. Jackson, R. Brown, and Cadillac are doing, you can tell why people here are so excited about Maroney.

 

[PonyExpress]

I look at it slightly different. The thing is, football now ain't the same it was 20 years ago. What I see is a marked improvement in how things did drafting running backs between 1997 and 2001, to the tune of 42%. The guys from 2002 onward haven't had much of a chance yet, but if you look at what LJ, McGahee, S. Jackson, R. Brown, and Cadillac are doing, you can tell why people here are so excited about Maroney.

Great point. Somehow, by improved medicine, training, scouting, rb evaulations have gotten much better.