Welcome to PatsFans.com

Here we go again. Points analysis for Colts/NE.

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Oswlek, Jan 16, 2007.

  1. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2006
    Messages:
    4,171
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    To abbreviate things a little, I am not going to explain what everything means, but if you don't understand something, please check out the Jet and Charger analysis threads here and here. The Jet one will go into more detail of how the scores are totalled.

    FYI, all numbers include the playoff games. Colt fans should note that NE gets the worst of the trends, as the 35-0 thrashing of GB and the 40-7 beat down of Houston are the games that fall off just prior to the 8 and 4 week trend figures repsectively. The Colts do lose the 34-16 smoking of Cincy in their 4 week numbers (not as big of a loss as NE's, though) but their 8 week number starts with the 45-21 humiliation of Philly.

    Here are the details:

    Indy Season
    PF - 25.8 vs. 20.1 ~ +5.7
    PA - 20.8 vs. 21 ~ +0.2
    Total ~ 5.9

    NE Season
    PF - 24.8 vs. 20 ~ +4.8
    PA - 15.2 vs. 21.3 ~ +6.1
    Total ~ 10.9

    * Indy was actually in the red defensively prior to the playoffs.

    Indy Home
    PF - 26.3 vs. 20.7 ~ +5.6
    PA - 17.3 vs. 20.4 ~ +3.1
    Total ~ 8.7

    NE Away
    PF - 27.2 vs. 20.1 ~ +7.1
    PA - 14.3 vs. 21 ~ +6.7
    Total ~ 13.8

    * Not only does NE win this matchup (against a team that has gone 9-0 at home) but they have outperformed then in each category sizably, no matter how you match up the numbers.

    Indy Last 8 Games
    PF - 25.3 vs. 19.5 ~ +5.8
    PA - 20.5 vs. 21 ~ +.5
    Total ~ 6.3

    NE last 8 games
    PF - 26.3 vs. 20.1 ~ +6.2
    PA - 17.9 vs. 21.6 ~ +3.7
    Total ~ 9.9

    * Notable is the consistency of Indy's offense. In the first three categories they are +5.7, +5.6 and +5.8. This is why I believe that NE will face an offense that runs a little more smoothly than how they have looked in the playoffs so far.

    Indy Last 4 Games
    PF - 22.3 vs. 18.2 ~ +4.1
    PA - 15.8 vs. 19 ~ +3.2
    Total ~ 7.3

    NE Last 4 Games
    PF - 31.3 vs. 19.9 ~ + 11.4
    PA - 20.3 vs. 23.5 ~ +3.2
    Total ~ 14.6

    * Interestingly enough, Indy's and NE's defenses have scored at near equivalent levels over the past 4 games. As you will see, Indy's is based totally on the past two games weighing down the numbers. NE's is largely because of a fluke TD vs. the Jags and a dumb punt against TN. Minus those two plays, NE is +6.8 on defense in the last 4 games. The curse of small sample size rears its ugly head.

    Indy in the Playoffs
    PF - 19 vs. 16.2 ~ +2.8
    PA - 7 vs. 21.4 ~ +14.4
    Total ~ 17.2

    NE in the Playoffs
    PF - 30.5 vs. 18.7 ~ +11.8
    PA - 18.5 vs. 25.3 ~ +6.8
    Total ~ 18.6

    * Indy pulls this score up enough to finally be respectably close, but for better or worse, it is almost entirely because of a defense that has been playing out of its mind. As I said before, I expect to see Indy move the ball on NE. Given the choice, I usually side with the long term and, aside from the past two games, Indy's offense is remarkably consistent. However, NE is the first test for Indy's defense this entire postseason. Very much like the 2003 Indy team ran roughshod over two helpless defenses, amassing some amazing numbers and looking unstoppable, this team has not been tested defensively. NE has significantly more horses and significantly more brains than either KC or Baltimore.

    By comparison, NE's defense has been nearly as consistent as Indy's offense and their offensive improvement has been steady, unlike Indy's remarakable defensive surge, indicating that it is more likely that NE maintains their improved offensive pace than Indy's defensive.

    Since we are all very familiar with Indy (and they are with us) I don't need to get into any great detail (other than what I just did, of course :blahblah: ;)

    Aside from all of these numbers, I like NE's chances for a couple reasons:

    1) Indy's defensive improvement completely surprised KC and Baltimore clearly treated it as a fluke. NE will prepare for it better than either team did.

    2) NE already faced Indy with Bob Sanders. I personally believe that Indy played just as well defensively in that game as they have in the playoffs. They have just had the good fortune of matching up against an intellectually impotent team and a team that did not have the horses to take advantage of Indy's weakness.

    3) Whenever NE plays poorly against a team that also plays a very good game (like this year's Indy game and 2004 Pitt - even 2005 Denver works here) they learn from their mistakes and play significantly better the second time. Most often the other team plays the same way thinking that it was good enough last time.

    4) Manning played quite possibly the best game that I have seen him play in the last NE game. NE dominated the LOS and Manning still made a couple plays on the run and with a man in his face. Even if I expect him to play better than last week, it is hard to imagine him doing better than last time. Harrison and Wayne also played very well. By comparison, Brady was off all game and NE's WRs were terrible. In spite of all of this, it was still a competitive game.

    5) NE seems to adjust better with a time to plan than they do when a key guy goes out mid game. I fully expect NE to have a better plan of attack on Indy's receivers than they did last time. It seemed to me that they had visions of Javon Walker schooling James Sanders dancing in their heads.

    I welcome your thoughts.
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2007
  2. AndyT3

    AndyT3 Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2007
    Messages:
    3
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I think we can do it but Im not sure. As you can see above there stats are kinda good. Our history with them isnt that good.
  3. ironwasp

    ironwasp Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2006
    Messages:
    1,324
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    It's great analysis as usual Oswlek, but I think I need to stop thinking about this for a day or so before I make myself ill.
  4. F0nSY

    F0nSY Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2006
    Messages:
    853
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    #22 Jersey

    We are in play-offs!!! :p :p
  5. patsox23

    patsox23 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    7,387
    Likes Received:
    9
    Ratings:
    +9 / 1 / -0

    great post, as always. 'Though I don't think the last Indy game was as competitive as the score indicated.
  6. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2006
    Messages:
    4,171
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    The game was won by more than the final score indicated. I agree with you on that, and that is why I didn't make reference to the final score or margin of victory.

    But NE certainly was in that game until midway through the 4th quarter. Put another way, I don't think Indy outplayed NE for the first 50 minutes any more than SD did.
  7. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,383
    Likes Received:
    138
    Ratings:
    +283 / 9 / -9

    #24 Jersey

    I definitely agree with this. Manning made some great throws and Harrison a couple of great catches, especially that one for a TD. Manning also had at least one very lucky play, that little pitch to Clark to gain 5 when Vrabel was about to sack him. Good or lucky, the Colts made as many plays as they could reasonably have expected to and still didn't dominate. Additionally Samuel hadn't quite turned the corner that he did in the last 6 or so games and Sanders had almost no experience compared to what he has now.

    Just watching the game on NFLN now, it was interesting to see Samuel on Wayne and Hobbs on Harrison. I'm thinking I'd put Samuel on (still good but less so) Harrison with some help and have Hobbs on Wayne with more help.

    The main reason I'm confident, though, is the Colts are what they are. They do what they do. We can reasonably prepare for them. The Patriots ? Does anyone really know what we'll do ? I don't. And neither do the Colts.
  8. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,383
    Likes Received:
    138
    Ratings:
    +283 / 9 / -9

    #24 Jersey

    The Colts outgained us by 5 yards :

    http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=261105017

    It was very competitive, we just made too many mistakes.
  9. NYCPatsFan

    NYCPatsFan Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2006
    Messages:
    2,405
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    No Jersey Selected

    Excellent and encouraging analysis!! Though Indy's defense looks vastly improved, I have a feeling that our offense has by now gelled and can operate more fluidly + confidence than how we did back in Nov.

    Manning's (and Harrison's) performance against us in November was amazing. You rightly point out how effective he was with the pocket collapsing and throwing with confidence with NE defenders a whisker away from him. I guess credit is also due to Harrison/Wayne making excellent plays that gave Manning confidence to throw at them seemingly uncatchable balls.

    That said, his last two games exposed the fact with the right schemes, their ability to score TDs can be limited. Can we also do it? After beating the #1 ranked AFC at their home, I have the fullest confidence that we can.

    GO PATS!!
  10. richpats

    richpats Banned

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2005
    Messages:
    3,499
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    Another factor to consider for the first meeting: the Pats had played at Minnesota on MONDAY NIGHT before the Sunday night meeting with Indy. NE was at a disadvantage in prep and rest time. The same could be said for this game, but I like that NE is playing all of its playoff games on Sunday and sticking to a somewhat normal routine.
  11. Brownfan80

    Brownfan80 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    3,305
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    Great post, Os, but that's starting to go without saying.

    The difference between then and now that makes me the most confident is that it was our own mistakes that lost us the game that time around, and for the most part the Pats have been making fewer mistakes than they are forcing here lately (San Diego might tip that scale, but I don't think so), so the game hopefully will not come down to us shooting both our feet off again.

    If the Patriots limit their turnovers then we should have a good shot at a win. Especially if the Pats can force a few TOs by Indy's offense, which they haven't really done in the last two meetings.
  12. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2006
    Messages:
    4,658
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +15 / 0 / -0

    Oswlek,
    Does the fact the Pats beat SD, despite losing the point analysis by .1, shake your confidence in this system? Or do think the .1 fell within a margin of error? Fine work as always.
  13. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2006
    Messages:
    4,171
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    Not really, considering how strongly the trend numbers indicated a Patriot win and how closely contested the game was.

    If the Colts win this week in the face of all of this, I would definitely lose confidence, though.

    Edited to add that the Pats/SD game was the first where the team that won the trend numbers did not also have a season lead, so I really don't know what the margin for error is. I can be certain that Indy does not fall in it, though.
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2007
  14. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2006
    Messages:
    5,027
    Likes Received:
    20
    Ratings:
    +34 / 11 / -4

    #54 Jersey

    I agree, Manning played his ace off in the last game. He was making big time throws with heavy heavy pressure. This should be a chess match and a down and dirty battle, I think it comes down to our front 7 and their ability to create pressure.

    X Factors
    • Dallas Clark - With Harrison and Wayne getting double coverage he gets a lot of room to work in the middle.
    • Maroney - He really hasn't been on track for quite a while (injury, etc.) if he can break a few outside runs it will be huge.
    • Graham / Watson - A few deep seam routes are needed to keep Sanders away from the LOS.


  15. scooter481

    scooter481 Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2007
    Messages:
    24
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    manning has had two bad games in a row. he is done. harrison and wayne have done nothing this year in the playoffs. that looks good for us i think. they still worry me though.
  16. PlattsFan

    PlattsFan Rookie

    Joined:
    May 25, 2006
    Messages:
    423
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    I've enjoyed reading these, and I have to say I was impressed with the accuracy in the first two games (a solid win predicted for the Pats against the Jets and a "too close to call, but a slight advantage Patriots" for the Chargers game). But ... still too early to call me a believer. I'll be waiting to see on this game. The methodology seems sound enough, though.

    I have to agree with the conclusions on this game at a subjective level, though. Manning played the best game I've ever seen him play last time around, and the Patriots played like poop. And the result was a competitive game that the Colts deserved to win.

    I think the Patriots, if they spread the Colts out and force Sanders to move laterally, can move the ball up and down the field. On defense, I worry about their lack of speed in the middle of the field, but they can gameplan around that by going nickel nearly the entire game.

    I'd make the Pats a small favorite in the game, but a few turnovers could spell doom, of course. Short answer: I think the Chargers are a better team than the Colts, but Manning could conceivably take over the game.
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2007
  17. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2006
    Messages:
    4,171
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    Oddly enough, in prior years the only consistently predicted outcome was wins and losses, but the first two games have made my system look pretty smart. :rocker:

    I agree with you that NE will likely play in nickel for most of the game. Indy ran pretty well at the end of the Baltimore game but they had clearly given up. I will be surprised if Indy has success running even on NE's front 6.

    Along with the spread formation, I expect NE to try and get the ball in Maroney's hands in space with screens and short passes. He is a hell of a runner and, while Indy has improved greatly in the past couple games, I still don't buy that their tackling woes are totally cured. I also wouldn't be surprised if NE uses a few more draws than usual.
  18. SVN

    SVN Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2005
    Messages:
    22,550
    Likes Received:
    26
    Ratings:
    +44 / 0 / -0

    good pts as usual..i cant provide much stats and stuff but my observation
    -last 2 times we have played the colts..our offense a)seemed undecided or b)confused about what it wants to do or c)under pressure to score due to lack of confidence in stopping them.

    this could be more mcdaniels vs weis but thats what i felt last 2 times that the offense was feeling the pressure to score right from the first drive especially throwing deep for INT's on managable downs.And true to their fears
    indy scored first each of the 2 meetings and didnt punt very much during the game.
    to me ..this game is all about how mcdaniels handles the game with confidence and if brady can stay away from throwing to watson in triple coverage and move the ball effectively with patience
  19. chris_in_sunnyvale

    chris_in_sunnyvale Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2005
    Messages:
    2,091
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +8 / 0 / -0

    In the game earlier this year, the Pats CBs were playing well off the WRs for the entire first half and Manning killed them. Also, there was very little of Colts-killer Jarvis Green to be seen through 2.5 quarters. Once the Pats played more bump-and-run and Green was used more, the D started playing much better. If the D played that way the entire game, the outcome would have been different despite the odd pass-heavy offense the Pats ran that day.

    Belichick was outcoached on both sides of the ball that day. I'll be shocked if that happens twice in one season against the same opponent.

    Regards,
    Chris
  20. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    20,112
    Likes Received:
    217
    Ratings:
    +328 / 6 / -8

    Os, I really like what you have here, but you reference the downside well: the curse of small sample size (as in, one game.)

    You sound really confident, although all one can really say is that if the Pats lose, it will be an anomaly by your system (as well as by the Pats/Colts playoff record.)

    Don't get me wrong though... it does inspire confidence.

    PFnV

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>