Here Comes Dobsonmania

[RobertWeathers]

Brandon Tate, 2009 (rookie), 46 targets, 9.39 ypt
It is interesting that Tate performed so well in his rookie season- in fact much better than Dobson- but an injury derailed him.

I don't think Tate was cut because of injuries. He struggled with the offensive system and was marginalized even further by the new kickoff rules.

The fact they parted with him so readily, though, may be a cautionary tale for those who think Dobson is destined to make a big comeback. .

It is accurate to say that if the Pats think that a WR will not work out long term- or for that matter any player , they will be gone.

 

[oldrover]

I wonder if all NFL fans obsess this much about their team's #4 and #5 WR's, or if it's just us.

 

[Kdo5]

Just to backup my post with my personal favorite stat, here is the yards per target breakdown for other players with similarities, since they were lined up on the outside. Let's say a minimum of 20 targets and I left off Ochostinko simply because his problems with the playbook were well-documented, although he did meet the threshold.

Brandon Tate, 2009 (rookie), 46 targets, 9.39 ypt
Randy Moss, 2007, 160 targets, 9.33 ypt
Randy Moss, 2009, 138 targets, 9.16 ypt
Brandon LaFell, 2014, 67 targets, 8.60 ypt
Randy Moss, 2008 (Cassell), 125 targets, 8.06 ypt
Deion Branch, 2011 (age 32), 90 targets, 7.80 ypt
Reche Caldwell, 2006, 103 targets, 7.38 ypt- NOT RE-SIGNED
Brandon Lloyd, 2012, 130 targets, 7.01 ypt- NOT RE-SIGNED
Aaron Dobson, 2013 (rookie), 74 targets, 7.01 ypt- ???
Kenbrell Thompkins (rookie), 2013, 70 targets, 6.66 ypt- CUT EARLY NEXT SEASON
Randy Moss, 2010, 22 targets, 6.31 ypt- TRADED MID-SEASON
Deion Branch, 2012, 29 targets, 5.00 ypt- NOT RE-SIGNED
Brandon Tate (injury), 2010, 0 targets, 0.00 ypt- NOT-RESIGNED

Why did I italicize the bottom half of this list? Because none of the players who were under 7.5 ypt played another full season with the Patriots, except for Dobson who is really playing the season on the bench. You can go deeper into the numbers or point out exceptions and say I am cherry picking, but I think this chart gives a pretty good objective sense of the Patriots player evaluations at this position. It is interesting that Tate performed so well in his rookie season- in fact much better than Dobson- but an injury derailed him. The fact they parted with him so readily, though, may be a cautionary tale for those who think Dobson is destined to make a big comeback. The other thing people overlook is that from year 1 to year 2, players should be making huge strides in learning the complexities of the offense.

My guess is that Dobson's benching is not due to injury, or if it is, it still gives me very little confidence that he will be a valuable player in this offense.

Dobson missed half of the season.

By "productive" you are speaking of quantitative stats. By that measure, Chris Jones and Joe Vellano were also extremely productive last season since they were in for a huge bulk of plays. He had only 53 more yards than Kenbrell Thompkins last season along with 7 more targets. Their numbers were nearly identical. Thompkins was cut.

A Joe Vellano/Dobson comparison. One guy is a hinderance, and one guy is making big plays once he starts hitting his stride. Did you actually watch the games in mid-2013 before Dobson's injury?

 

[Dutchmaster617]

For what it's worth Edelman needed several years before he was ready to contribute like he is now. We gave him the benefit of the doubt because he was a QB in college and because he contributed on STs.

Dobson still has time to figure it out. He will have at least into camp next year. Hopefully he can contribute this year. I like most am losing hope but I got to remind my self injuries considered he doesn't even have a years worth of reps (even practice reps).

Edelman has been ready despite what many of you said, he was buried behind another capable 100/1000 slot guy in Welker.

Dobson is getting less touches than Lafell and possibly Tyms, not to mention guys like Hoo as a 3rd TE. It isn't like Julian he is literally being shown as unwanted, I think they will keep him just for depth incase a guy like Lafell is injured.

 

[Kdo5]

Edelman has been ready despite what many of you said, he was buried behind another capable 100/1000 slot guy in Welker.

Dobson is getting less touches than Lafell and possibly Tyms, not to mention guys like Hoo as a 3rd TE. It isn't like Julian he is literally being shown as unwanted, I think they will keep him just for depth incase a guy like Lafell is injured.

What do you know of Dobson being inactive? Do you have inside info that Tyms is better (based off of nothing) or that he is still dealing with an injury that he has sporadically tried to play with?

 

[50-yard-line]

I doubt they'd bring Boyce up - when JE got ready to play again, they'd have to try to sneak him back onto the PS.

Why take the risk at this point? There is no pressing need to bring him forth.

You guys are way too down on Dobson. Some rookies come in and do okay - for mediocre and bad teams. And those teams are bad because rookies, for all their flash, have moments of horrible play, particularly at skill positions. A blown route leads to a pick, etc.

Dobson got off on the wrong foot - literally - with this year'sinjury. It set him back and LaFell came in and performed. It's that simple. Maybe he'll turn it up in the last few games, maybe not, but he'll certainly get a chance next preseason to live up to his potential. I think they're keeping Boyce as JE's backup when DA walks next year, and they're keeping AD because he's got a ceiling above LaFell and could be something akin to a #1 some day. Might not get there, but he's got the athleticism.

I doubt the Pats are anywhere near giving up on him. I also doubt he'll be much of a factor THIS year.

 

[RobertWeathers]

they're keeping AD because he's got a ceiling above LaFell

We don't know what Dobson's ceiling is. Did we know what Chad Jackson's ceiling was after the 06 season?

CAR might have assumed that BL's ceiling was last year while this season he is on a pace to break his career high in every statistical category.

 

[Oswlek]

I doubt they'd bring Boyce up - when JE got ready to play again, they'd have to try to sneak him back onto the PS.

Why take the risk at this point? There is no pressing need to bring him forth.

You guys are way too down on Dobson. Some rookies come in and do okay - for mediocre and bad teams. And those teams are bad because rookies, for all their flash, have moments of horrible play, particularly at skill positions. A blown route leads to a pick, etc.

Dobson got off on the wrong foot - literally - with this year'sinjury. It set him back and LaFell came in and performed. It's that simple. Maybe he'll turn it up in the last few games, maybe not, but he'll certainly get a chance next preseason to live up to his potential. I think they're keeping Boyce as JE's backup when DA walks next year, and they're keeping AD because he's got a ceiling above LaFell and could be something akin to a #1 some day. Might not get there, but he's got the athleticism.

I doubt the Pats are anywhere near giving up on him. I also doubt he'll be much of a factor THIS year.

I love this post.... up until you started talking about ceilings. LaFell looks pretty damn good right now and Dobson can be valuable moving forward even if he never becomes that good.

Otherwise, I'm fully on board.

 

[PatriotReign]

I keep hearing about how Tyms failed to make an easy reception, but I only recall him being targeted on that one deep pass that got intercepted.

 

[Sfpat]

First pass of the game. Not an easy catch, but a catchable ball from Brady

 

[deters]

I keep hearing about how Tyms failed to make an easy reception, but I only recall him being targeted on that one deep pass that got intercepted.

He had a 2nd one that he dropped. I don't remember the route but it would have been maybe a 20 yards reception or so. He had to fall back outside to catch it but it went right through his hands. Not a perfect pass but easily one that has to be caught.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Just to backup my post with my personal favorite stat, here is the yards per target breakdown for other players with similarities, since they were lined up on the outside. Let's say a minimum of 20 targets and I left off Ochostinko simply because his problems with the playbook were well-documented, although he did meet the threshold.

Brandon Tate, 2009 (rookie), 46 targets, 9.39 ypt
Randy Moss, 2007, 160 targets, 9.33 ypt
Randy Moss, 2009, 138 targets, 9.16 ypt
Brandon LaFell, 2014, 67 targets, 8.60 ypt
Randy Moss, 2008 (Cassell), 125 targets, 8.06 ypt
Deion Branch, 2011 (age 32), 90 targets, 7.80 ypt
Reche Caldwell, 2006, 103 targets, 7.38 ypt- NOT RE-SIGNED
Brandon Lloyd, 2012, 130 targets, 7.01 ypt- NOT RE-SIGNED
Aaron Dobson, 2013 (rookie), 74 targets, 7.01 ypt- ???
Kenbrell Thompkins (rookie), 2013, 70 targets, 6.66 ypt- CUT EARLY NEXT SEASON
Randy Moss, 2010, 22 targets, 6.31 ypt- TRADED MID-SEASON
Deion Branch, 2012, 29 targets, 5.00 ypt- NOT RE-SIGNED
Brandon Tate (injury), 2010, 0 targets, 0.00 ypt- NOT-RESIGNED

Why did I italicize the bottom half of this list? Because none of the players who were under 7.5 ypt played another full season with the Patriots, except for Dobson who is really playing the season on the bench. You can go deeper into the numbers or point out exceptions and say I am cherry picking, but I think this chart gives a pretty good objective sense of the Patriots player evaluations at this position. It is interesting that Tate performed so well in his rookie season- in fact much better than Dobson- but an injury derailed him. The fact they parted with him so readily, though, may be a cautionary tale for those who think Dobson is destined to make a big comeback. The other thing people overlook is that from year 1 to year 2, players should be making huge strides in learning the complexities of the offense.

My guess is that Dobson's benching is not due to injury, or if it is, it still gives me very little confidence that he will be a valuable player in this offense.

You can look at stats all you want, but they don't tell the WHOLE story. Dobson was taking targets away from kt, Amendola and Edelman. Dobson was THE guy on the outside. Tom had trust in Dobson. Dobson had a chemistry with Brady and Brady has only thrown 1 back shoulder throw and that was last week, he almost did one once a game to Dobson. This year, in Minnesota to convert the games first 3rd down, who did Brady go to? Gronk? Edelman? Amendola? Nope, Aaron Dobson. Dobson is a wr that the pats wr coach likes, and one bb felt was good enough to keep off of IR.

If you watched the games Dobson played, which was a little over half of the season and Pretty much was a nonfactor because of his foot. If BB is going to let Dobson progress through the season and not place him on IR; Dobson has something no other recent wr draft picks have shown.

 

[Gronkowski123]

dobson should be ahead of tyms by default.
if dobson was on a different team, he'd be more productive. it's that simple.
...look at martavius bryant for example on the steelers or weaton. other teams try to develop their young wideouts. we don't...

 

[Archeryaddict12]

I keep hearing about how Tyms failed to make an easy reception, but I only recall him being targeted on that one deep pass that got intercepted.

Hit him in the hands. Wasn't a perfect pass but it was a pass by Tom, outside away from the defender so it wouldn't be picked off. Any wr should have made it imo.

 

[Froob]

During the bye week the Pats' WR coach implied it was the injury that had been setting him back. Typically, if this were a JAG, the Pats would've stashed him on IR. (ex. Buchanan) The fact they didn't says something to me.

I hope youre right, my favorite Dobson play had to be the last catch vs Carolina where the defender thought he was going to the endzone and he made a quick stop and went out of bounds. I just feel like he would have been on the injury report I don't see any reason to lie about him vs an injury to Brady or Vinatieri.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

I hope youre right, my favorite Dobson play had to be the last catch vs Carolina where the defender thought he was going to the endzone and he made a quick stop and went out of bounds. I just feel like he would have been on the injury report I don't see any reason to lie about him vs an injury to Brady or Vinatieri.

Well technically he isn't "injured". He may be "healed" so not injured, but isn't healthy enough to play in a game at a high level. He can do all his snaps, but isn't at game ready level. So he technically doesn't have to mentioned on the injury report

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This year, in Minnesota to convert the games first 3rd down, who did Brady go to? Gronk? Edelman? Amendola? Nope, Aaron Dobson.

This about sums up the crazy hype surrounding Aaron Dobson He must be a really good player because on one insignificant play in one game, Brady threw the ball to him. Why am I the only one who can call a spade a spade? Maybe I am too quick to call him a bust, but come on, the writing's on the wall. The guy is clearly not going to be as good as we'd hoped. Football changes a lot in one year. What he did last year (which I have pointed out is basically the exact same as the recently cut Thompkins) he did last year. In 2014, he has 3 catches. His situation is similar to Amendola last season; we all thought he was injured- which was only part of the problem. Edelman buried him in the ground, and that is what LaFell has done to Dobson. I strongly suspect that if LaFell gets injured, Dobson will be in the lineup the next game, proving to all of us that he is able to play but not worth the roster spot right now. I'm not saying he would be a complete failure in the lineup right now, I just think that he is nowhere near LaFell's level. Anyone who honestly believes his "ceiling is higher" than LaFell right now needs to put down their pipe.

The Patriots- like all teams- have had so many guys look good in their first season before their fatal flaw has become exposed- whether it's the playbook, physicality, route running, intelligence, etc. This wouldn't be the first time something like this has happened. Darius Butler, Ras-I Dowling, Laurence Maroney, Eugene Wilson, James Sanders, Zach Sudfeld (in preseason, that is). I don't know why it is so hard to believe that Dobson flashed potential in his rookie season but actually isn't that good. I never thought he was special last year, despite the hype here. He has good size and speed but certainly didn't look elite in any way. He caught less than 50% of his targets. He did not look as good as Deion Branch in his rookie season. Take a look at the rookie years of some good receivers around the league maybe you'll realize that Dobson really wasn't the next coming of Jerry Rice, or even Branch for that matter.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

If Dobson can't get in the line up this week....and still can't beat out tyms..some problems

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I am just curious about what specifically Dobson has shown on the field that leads anyone to believe he has a high ceiling. Let's start with the fact he was selected 59th selection (even though the hype around would indicate he was the first overall selection.) It's not like he had elite talent written all over him coming out of college. Tempering my expectations, I was hoping for a David Givens type of player.

The fact he caught about 50% of the passes thrown his way tells me that he probably does not have the route running, intelligence, and overall chemistry with Brady that we've seen from guys who are successful here. I'm willing to give somewhat of a pass because of his circumstances last year and the lack of other options in the offense, but Brady did complete 61.8% to players other than Dobson.

I must have missed the big, breakout plays where he burned defenders and showed his elite, or even above average skill set and demonstrated raw talent that made me think he had a bright future.

 

[ATippett56]

Meanwhile, Brian Tyms has one reception on four targets.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2014.htm

Not exactly an earth shattering performance by Brian Tyms this season.