Hate to bring up that linebacker thing.

[RayClay]

You forgot a couple of picks who succeeded. 7th Rounder David Givens, UDFA Randy Gay; 6th rounder Tom Brady; 5th rounder Ryan O Callaghan; and 7th rounder TBC. Matt Chatham who started for 10 games or so in our 2004 SB club was an UDFA.

As for LB, I Think Adalius Thomas is a 5th rounder, among others drafted by other clubs.

You've listed one linebacker who was only an emergency starter.

Way to refute my argument.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

You've listed one linebacker who was only an emergency starter.

Way to refute my argument.

I cannot speak for him, but I'm not trying to refute your argument. It's obvious -- we haven't used high draft picks on FA. During BB's tenure he signed 2 of our current starters in FA (Colvin, Vrabel). Seau was a FA stop-gap. Concerning the draft, we drafted for other positions in the higher rounds. So far we addressed LB by FA and by throwing low-round project picks at the wall and see which ones stuck. Are we at a disaster point yet? No. Do we need to start drafting Bruschi and Vrabel's replacements in '07-- yes. Could TBC be the first drafted LB to become a starter? I think so.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

GREAT post, good points, post more often, please. Seau is indeed a BIG loss - not chicken little-ing about it or anything, but downplaying this injury is pretty short-sighted.

Making a huge deal about his loss is peeing into the wind. It hurts the depth chart, it doesn't create a serious downgrade in the team defense.

The Patriots played 39 minutes without Junior Seau against a fairly decent team heading into the playoffs as the NFC's #1 seed - that team needed the help of St. Polian to sniff the end zone without the challenge of Junior Seau in their face. That was a dominating defensive effort, I repeat dominating.

Seau was darned good and we'll miss him, but not in terms of the immediate capabilities of this defense. This club is on track to roll into the playoffs on a 7 game win streak, have faith brother! :rocker:

Go Pats.

 

[RayClay]

I cannot speak for him, but I'm not trying to refute your argument. It's obvious -- we haven't used high draft picks on FA. During BB's tenure he signed 2 of our current starters in FA (Colvin, Vrabel). Seau was a FA stop-gap. Concerning the draft, we drafted for other positions in the higher rounds. So far we addressed LB by FA and by throwing low-round project picks at the wall and see which ones stuck. Are we at a disaster point yet? No. Do we need to start drafting Bruschi and Vrabel's replacements in '07-- yes. Could TBC be the first drafted LB to become a starter? I think so.

I pretty much agree with you. I just grow tired with people that don't have a point, so they make up arguments against things I didn't say.

We had 5-6 proven linebackers a few years ago, now we have 3.

We actually haven't drafted many linebackers on day two either.

 

[arrellbee]

Making a huge deal about his loss is peeing into the wind. It hurts the depth chart, it doesn't create a serious downgrade in the team defense.

Whooooooa. I'm really not sure that you can mean this. I won't go into any perspectives about why this can't be an applicable statement because my guess is you would do a better job than I. Myself, I would tip the scales a little more toward Patsox23 evaluation - "BIG loss - not chicken little-ing about it" - than I would towards it not creating a serious downgrade.

The Patriots played 39 minutes without Junior Seau against a fairly decent team heading into the playoffs as the NFC's #1 seed - that team needed the help of St. Polian to sniff the end zone without the challenge of Junior Seau in their face. That was a dominating defensive effort, I repeat dominating.

I will be interested to see what adds up when you go over the game in more analysis with respect to yardage allowed until Seau was injured versus afterwards. I have an impression (only an impression) that while they still were VERY effective, that the results were not as good after he left. Maybe I'll have a chance to break down the gamebook later.

Seau was darned good and we'll miss him, but not in terms of the immediate capabilities of this defense.

To go ahead and talk about one aspect - this has to mean that four starters with Banta-Cain as one of those starters and no real experience depth underneath that is not immediately significantly less than the four starters including Seau with only Banta-Cain as solid depth. I just can't figure how that can possibly be the case.

This club is on track to roll into the playoffs on a 7 game win streak, have faith brother! :rocker:

Go Pats.

Forever.

 

[arrellbee]

RayClay
Too many posts of yours to quote them all, but...

There is no question that the Patriots haven't used draft picks for LBs on the first day (as you originally made the point) and have been few and far between on the second day (as you kind of change your point later). Completely agreed.

The theme of your original post and what seems to still be the theme as you make various replies seems to be that the Patriots should have made the tradeoff in positions that they drafted so as to include some first day and possibly some second day picks for LBs. OK. The point of my original post was to try to put your theme in perspective to show that it is not so obvious that WITH A LIMITED NUMBER OF PICKS that they didn't use the picks for positions as critical as LB and indeed have gotten starters from a very high percentage of first day picks in postions that obviously are critically needed. What seems somewhat simplistic is simply that if you think the picks should have been better used for LB, since it's a fixed number of picks, you have to go through the list and say who you wouldn't have drafted that is currently a significant part of the team. I pointed out a very few picks from the first day that didn't work out, so you could certainly, in hindsight remember, say that the positions they drafted for were not currently critical for the team - I don't think you can make that claim. So then you are left with having to make the argument about whether the postions they did draft for (DB, DE, etc.) were positions more readily filled by FA than LB. Not sure you can make that argument, even with the benefit of hindsight.

It certainly is not an absolute as to how you use draft picks. Arguably the Patriots have done pretty well. But if your judgment is that they should have allocated their picks differently vis-a-vis picking LB(s) instead, I don't see how anyone can say that you are 'wrong' - but I would be interested to know which players you wouldn't have drafted and why you think the odds are good that a draft pick on a LB would yield a solid starter.

cheers

 

[14thDragon]

I would still like to see some LB depth be built through the draft. Several other teams have been able to find the 3-4 type Linebackers they need through the draft. That being said, I certainly do not know which players have been drafted that I would have rather had a LB in that spot. Likely Graham, Thomas, Hill, Johnson come to mind, but I am not sure who would have been there at those slots.

But the real problem, IMHO, has been the success rate at bringing in FA, undrafted or otherwise, to build depth. When the OL has taken injuries the no-names step up and fill in. In the secodary we have only missed big one time and that was with Starks, but the guys they plug in can get the job done without the drop-off. The DL has had nice success with Wright. WR, we have seen Caldwell, Dwight, Patten all come in and produce.

But you look at the LB corps, we got hits on Colvin, Vrable and Seau, big misses with Beisel and Brown and several undecideds on the UDFA. For all we know Gradner might have been a hit, but was IR'd fast.

Now it is my hope that TBC as well as Woods, or Alexander can step up and do what Gay, Poteat, Neal, Hochstien and others have done and gone from a no-name back-up to solid contributor, but I do not know yet. And that is what has me nervous. There was a time not too far back when we had 6-7 good LB that were known quanities.

I do not think though you can say that LB is not a position that needs to be addressed in the up coming drafts. One good draft pick, one good FA pick-up and things look a lot less marginal.

 

[patfanken]

Have to pot in and tell you how much I enjoyed this well thought out and articulated thread. Good football talk at its finest. If I may here are a few comments.

1. I think its important to repeat this comment. The Pats LB situation is different from most teams. It is not something that an inexperienced professional can easily adapt to. Look at the Chad Brown example. Here was a very good LB with a lot of Pro experience, including the Pittsburg 3-4, who was, for the most part, lost during his time here. So was Beisel, whose regression still baffles me. Ergo, drafting even a talented LB out of college and expecting them to do great things in this system is a bit unrealistic.

The other reason, which was stated in this thread, which makes finding good LBs for the Pats, is that projecting how a college LB will do in the Pats defensive system is VERY DIFFICULT, and problematic. That iswhy we can expect the Pats to continue to take shots at low round college LBs/DEs who they can hope to develop into suitable players, all the while understanding that they will have many more misses than hits. AT THE SAME TIME going to FA for more experienced and more easily evaluated player, who STILL may or may not fit the system.

The best example of that "mystery" is WHY Junior adapted to well to this system so quickly, while a guy like Chad Brown, had so many problems. Both were good, smart, and experienced. One guy adapted, one didn't. Understand that this has nothing to do with the physical ability of the player, but with the mental adaption to the system. I have no answers to this 'mystery', BTW. Its just an explaination for why the Pats operate the way they do in finding ways to fill their LB roster spots.

BOTTOM LINE here is what I expect the Pats to do this off season. They will probably draft a DE/LB type or 2 in the second day, and go after a couple of mid level to upper level FA LBs. My personal fantasy would be to see Lance Briggs in a Pats uniform next season, but for the many reasons we all know to well, this is what it is.....a fantasy.

2. I remember TBC from that draft. IIRC, most draft sites were projecting him to be a 2nd to 3rd round pick, so his percipitous drop to the end of the 7th round was a mild surprise. IIRC it was due to an off season surgery or injury, because I'm pretty sure he was on the PUP for a great deal of his rookie season.

As for his progress he is pretty much on course for the "typical" conversion of a college DE into a finished product to play in the Pats LB system. IMHO this is a 4 year transition at minimum. I'm also pretty sure that the Pats wouldn't have let Willie go, if they didn't think that TBC wasn't progressing at a pace that would make them comfortable. So far, I don't think he has disappointed. Remember that the way the Pats play defense, it is really difficult for ANY ONE MEMBER to stand out over the course of a season. Guys like Alexander/Woods are still far from finished products and shouldn't be expected to be ready to play for a few more years

3. Finally, its worth repeating, the Pats 3-4 defense, is DIFFERENT than most of the other 3-4's (ie Pittsburgh) that are being used in the league.

 

[Brownfan80]

The best example of that "mystery" is WHY Junior adapted to well to this system so quickly, while a guy like Chad Brown, had so many problems. Both were good, smart, and experienced. One guy adapted, one didn't. Understand that this has nothing to do with the physical ability of the player, but with the mental adaption to the system. I have no answers to this 'mystery', BTW. Its just an explaination for why the Pats operate the way they do in finding ways to fill their LB roster spots.

I'm not positive that I agree with this. You state that the difference in performance from Brown to Seau was mental adaption to the system, but I'm not so sure.

The Patriots system states that ILBs (SILB and WILB) both be strong players that can take on a Guard or Center and get off the block.

What I saw of Chad Brown was two things: He either got single blocked out of plays, or ran away from blocks at full speed, taking himself out of plays by way of overrunning his assigned spot. Seau seemed very good at taking on his blocker and arriving at his gap at the right time.

Just by eyeballing the two guys (nevermind that Seau is known for his huge muscles) you can see that Seau is a more physical linebacker.

I think that while the mental side of the ILB play is vital, you can't underestimate the importance of the physical make-up of those players. I think that Brown is a good example: He's smart. He's a vet. He's played the 3-4. He's not as strong physically as Seau. He didn't work out while Seau did.

In some systems all you need is an athletic freak. In some systems a player can get by on his mental aptitude even as a lesser athlete. In our system it appears that you need both things to play ILB.

 

[arrellbee]

Patfanken
Thanks again for popping in - and contributing another post with some great observations.

Couple quick comments.
Having gone back to the last regular season game last year and the playoff game where Beisel had a significant number of reps after a whole season of practice and familiarization with the Belichick system - slo mo review pretty much shows that, despite media comments to the contrary, Beisel was not performing even up to 'OK'. So from my perspective, he didn't regress at all. He never performed well at all. And it was far more of a problem than just getting familiar with the system. He is just fundamentally a very poor LB.

Your point about growing LBs in the Patriots system is so pertinent. Folks tend to forget how many years it took for Bruschi et al to become so very effective in the Pats system.

 

[14thDragon]

Patfanken
Your point about growing LBs in the Patriots system is so pertinent. Folks tend to forget how many years it took for Bruschi et al to become so very effective in the Pats system.

This is not a bad point. However, if you need to grow players into a system, then you need to start well before your current veterans are on the way out. Preferably we would have understudies that have been working into the system for sometime.

This is simlar to the TBC case, first working as a special teams guy, then a situational pass rusher and now working into the regular defense. But we have no one in the ILB spot right now that has been working at that. Which is why Vrable is now on spot to move inside.

I'm not saying we should have spent multiple first round picks on LBs, but a couple of first day guys with the fit for the system and the depth would be better, or a few more FA, undrafted or otherwise, who could step up to be more then special teamers, then you have some more depth. We have seen this pattern at other positions, and I would hope the LB corps gets a boost before to much longer.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

This is not a bad point. However, if you need to grow players into a system, then you need to start well before your current veterans are on the way out. Preferably we would have understudies that have been working into the system for sometime.

This is simlar to the TBC case, first working as a special teams guy, then a situational pass rusher and now working into the regular defense. But we have no one in the ILB spot right now that has been working at that. Which is why Vrable is now on spot to move inside.

I'm not saying we should have spent multiple first round picks on LBs, but a couple of first day guys with the fit for the system and the depth would be better, or a few more FA, undrafted or otherwise, who could step up to be more then special teamers, then you have some more depth. We have seen this pattern at other positions, and I would hope the LB corps gets a boost before to much longer.

Growth...

- TBC is in his 4th year and earning starts due to injury, as well as earning increased reps in the games.
- Eric Alexander has progressed from Practice Squad to Special Teams wizard, he is in his 3rd year with the team and was eligible for the Practice Squad again just like Billy Yates under the new rules. He may be a bigger version of Izzo/Davis and being groomed for their jobs, but he could also be progressing towards a shot at more playing time too - darned secretive BB.
- Cory Mays is also a bigger faster version of Izzo/Davis, I was suprprised to see him graduate to the active roster so soon...
- Pierre Woods beat out the 6th round rival for the roster, I see him being on the same TBC production line.

The Pats have two longer term products starting to get noticed for their longetivity, they also have two young projects who frankly are either ahead of the curve or right on the TBC timeline. Beisel was a young project that missed, we can see the attempt at growing your own with the Pats, as well as the FA dip net they've been using. We'll just have to tough it out and enjoy the ride. :singing:

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Whooooooa. I'm really not sure that you can mean this. I won't go into any perspectives about why this can't be an applicable statement because my guess is you would do a better job than I. Myself, I would tip the scales a little more toward Patsox23 evaluation - "BIG loss - not chicken little-ing about it" - than I would towards it not creating a serious downgrade.

bee, bee, bee - Team Defense simply says the entire defense changes a little to match the new strengths and weaknesses of the replacement. James Sanders replacing Chad Scott replacing Rodney Harrison means new strengths and new weaknesses for the team. You adjust your assignments and play calling to compensate. The Pats have demonstrated time and again they can do this and not lose significant capability to get the job done. 2005 was a horrible year, but the club still made the playoffs and improved defensively as people came back from injury - with Beisel and Brown struggling in the middle they still split even in a murderer's row of a first half - not too shabby when you consider all the other problems at the same time.

Vrabel replaces Seau, loss of experience, initial loss of run stuffing, improvement in pass coverage, improved inside blitz speed, overall improvement in speed and mobility. Pees adjusts.

Colvin replaces Vrabel, loss of run stuffing, loss of pass coverage, more speed off the right side, overall improvement in speed and mobility. Pees adjusts.

TBC replaces Colvin, loss of experience, initial loss of run stuffing (I think he'll be matching Colvin by playoff time), perhaps an initial loss of pass coverage, no loss of speed off the edge, overall improved speed and mobility with the changes at all three positions, with a slight loss in experience and run defense. Pees adjusts.

The starters gain speed and mobility while losing some run capability and experience. The depth chart takes a huge hit, I've never said otherwise, but you play with what's in your hand and this hand is still a full house - just hope you aren't required to draw again, there are no four of kinds to be had in FA or up your sleeve. Life's a beach my friend.

I will be interested to see what adds up when you go over the game in more analysis with respect to yardage allowed until Seau was injured versus afterwards. I have an impression (only an impression) that while they still were VERY effective, that the results were not as good after he left. Maybe I'll have a chance to break down the gamebook later.

The numbers already say that was the case as well as the anecdotal evidence watching the game, but why is that a significant loss of ability? The bottom line is Chicago's offense moved the ball a little, but without St. Polian were clearly held in check. That is not a bad offense, even if Rex is having a bad day. Be confident, the newly constituted defense is going to get the job done for this offense - come to think of it, that is just what they did against Chicago!

To go ahead and talk about one aspect - this has to mean that four starters with Banta-Cain as one of those starters and no real experience depth underneath that is not immediately significantly less than the four starters including Seau with only Banta-Cain as solid depth. I just can't figure how that can possibly be the case. Ye of little faith!

Forever.

Watch and see, this D will get the job done and be a force to reckon with in the playoffs.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The Pats don't need to find a fully functional LB, as a reserve.

They only need to find a run stuffer for first and second run downs only,after getting eleven games out of JS. This is a Belichick strength finding suitable situation substitutes. Don't forget that there are still two "Mike" men on the roster, MV & TB; and four startable OLBs, MV, TB TBC, & RC before dipping into the inexpereiced or ST only players.

I'm waiting for the run stuffing rabbit out of the hat to be signed.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The Pats don't need to find a fully functional LB, as a reserve.

They only need to find a run stuffer for first and second run downs only,after getting eleven games out of JS. This is a Belichick strength finding suitable situation substitutes. Don't forget that there are still two "Mike" men on the roster, MV & TB; and four startable OLBs, MV, TB TBC, & RC before dipping into the inexpereiced or ST only players.

I'm waiting for the run stuffing rabbit out of the hat to be signed.

So you're waiting for TJ to hit the gym harder and gear up for his last second comeback?

 

[AzPatsFan]

Though it was a surprise, who depended on Johnson's health or was really shocked by his retirement? His health was questionable for years.

I'll grant it caught us flat footed, but part of that was the failure to prepare for injuries or retirement at LB.

I already posted, but where were the future LBs since 2000?

Just how many damn draft picks do you think they had? BB rebuilt the entire roster and you could resonably argue that only now are we anywhere near having the luxury to address areas that had competent players playing there already.

Where would Brady be if he hadn't drafted Light, Mankins, Kaczur, and Koppen. On IR, or battered and out of the League? Or punch drunk, gun shy and hearing footsteps?

Who would be running the ball if he didn't trade a pick for Dillon and draft LM. Who would be catching it, if he hadn't drafted Watson and Grahmbo and Branch?

Who would be stopping the run and pressing the opposition passer, if he didn't draft SeyMonsta, Warren or Wilfork?

So knock off the baloney....

"he shoulda.." you sound like a damn Democrat saying "he shouda..." surrendered... and don't blame us Demos when NY city vaporizes into radioactive gas either. He shouda... never... We should

 

[shirtsleeve]

"he shoulda.." you sound like a damn Democrat saying "he shouda..." surrendered... and don't blame us Demos when NY city vaporizes into radioactive gas either. He shouda... never... We should

You been over at the political forum again? Dangerous to your health, it is.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Watch and see, this D will get the job done and be a force to reckon with in the playoffs.

Let's hope - I haven't read all 8 pages of this thread but I'm sure someone already pointed out that most of the Bears yards gained on the run came after Seau went out.

...though I think we recognize it is tough to shift on the fly in the middle of a game like that. The week of practice should do them good.

BTW - here was Profootballtalk's take on the shift:

With LB Junior Seau out for the Pats, Mike Vrabel will be the one who gets to smell what Vince Wilfork had for lunch the day before.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Let's hope - I haven't read all 8 pages of this thread but I'm sure someone already pointed out that most of the Bears yards gained on the run came after Seau went out.

...though I think we recognize it is tough to shift on the fly in the middle of a game like that. The week of practice should do them good.

BTW - here was Profootballtalk's take on the shift:

I'm always thankful for PFT's insight...as to the run game without Seau, da Bears cranked out 157 yds in the air for the first half and 19 in the second...for a big play offense, that needed St. Polian to sniff the end zone, that has got to sting.

 

[arrellbee]

Box
I won't quote your whole post. Hopefully folks will have read it.

We are not in disagreement about anything you said. I also believe firmly that Belichick (with Pioli) has put together a solid enough and deep enough team that they can keep going at an effective level. As we have analyzed and observed many many times, this is a cornerstone to how they put together a roster and a significant reason for the team's success.

However, I just can't go along with how you overly underplay it:
"It hurts the depth chart, it doesn't create a serious downgrade in the team defense. "

I guess it's a matter of semantics - probably hinges on the work serious and also in my opinion it HAS to 'hurt' more than the depth chart. I think that Colvin, Bruschi, Vrabel and Banta-Cain without Colvin and Vrabel playing in their accustomed positions is simply not as strong as Colvin, Bruschi, Seau, and Vrabel - do you really think it is ?? ?? I agree that losing a solid contributor like Seau doesn't mean that they can't still be effective - even effective enough to win a SB. But I still maintain that this is more of a game of inches and a key play here and there than folks want to acknowledge. So to me, losing Seau and especially the ability to rest the starting LBs a little bit with Banta-Cain spelling them AND bringing his fresh legs and energy to a few plays has to have an impact and could be the edge that knocks them out of the playoffs. If it were to be that kind of tiny edge, I would call that serious. I surely hope it isn't.