Has Tom Brady lost his magic?

[PatsFanSince74]

Funny way of reading those stats? Really? They're very straightforward. I sifted through his stats and used this calculator (NFL, NCAA, AFL - Quarterback Rating Calculator). Here's his career #'s:

1st-3rd Q: 64.6%, 7.6 ypa, 51.1 att/int, 97.6 rating
4th Q: 61.5%, 7.1 ypa, 36.4 att/int, 91.9 rating

He's worse in completion percentage, yards per attempt, attempt/interception ratio, and QB rating.

In other words, for his career, he's worse in the 4th quarter than he is in the first three. Not every game, obviously, but pretty consistently year-to-year, from the beginning of his career to the present, and, of course, when all his numbers are totaled up.

Doesn't mean I don't want him to have the ball with the game on the line, and it doesn't mean he's not an all-time great (I'd rather have him than anyone else), but he's not bullet-proof.

Thanks for the data and for doing the work associated with gathering it.

I know it's a bit much for someone who didn't do the work to ask a question like this, but the statistician in me would be interested in the Standard Deviations around those indicators, as they would help us determine the materiality of the differences between Quarters One to Three and Quarter Four performance.

On the surface, a difference of a half a yard per Attempt and three out of a hundred completions doesn't seem material and could be random, though the pick frequency is around 30% higher and probably noteworthy.

 

[JJDChE]

Sadly, the era of the internet and fantasy sports has led people to believe that an offense has to be perfect in order for it not to suck. Being the winningest team in football for the past 3+ years, despite having a QB returning from ACL surgery and having a defense that was in clear decline during that period, is somehow not a sign that the offense is getting the job done, because the team's lost some games in the 4th quarter. :bricks:

IOW. People are stupid.

Agreed.

 

[PromisedLand]

Thanks for the data and for doing the work associated with gathering it.

I know it's a bit much for someone who didn't do the work to ask a question like this, but the statistician in me would be interested in the Standard Deviations around those indicators, as they would help us determine the materiality of the differences between Quarters One to Three and Quarter Four performance.

On the surface, a difference of a half a yard per Attempt and three out of a hundred completions doesn't seem material and could be random, though the pick frequency is around 30% higher and probably noteworthy.

This is a very relevant question. It is easy to look at statistics and draw shoot-from-the-hip conclusions but until you ask these kinds of questions you really can't.

Here's another question regarding the excellent stats gathering done previously in this thread which compared Brady's 4th quarter passer rating vs Q's 1-3. What is the norm for ALL quarterbacks in the league? Perhaps it is normal for 4th Q passer ratings to be lower than overall averages? (A plausible explanation would be that leading teams are trying to sit on leads and playing too conservatively, whereas trailing teams are throwing caution to the wind and going for broke.)

 

[resdubwhite]

Tom still makes me go all gooey. so No. The magic is still there.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Tom still makes me go all gooey. so No. The magic is still there.

Thank you for sharing that, though I have to admit I really don't need to know the details of your definition of "gooey." :singing:

 

[ivanvamp]

Thanks for the data and for doing the work associated with gathering it.

I know it's a bit much for someone who didn't do the work to ask a question like this, but the statistician in me would be interested in the Standard Deviations around those indicators, as they would help us determine the materiality of the differences between Quarters One to Three and Quarter Four performance.

On the surface, a difference of a half a yard per Attempt and three out of a hundred completions doesn't seem material and could be random, though the pick frequency is around 30% higher and probably noteworthy.

Good questions. Don't know the answers. It is also worth considering that in many of Brady's games, the fourth quarter is pretty irrelevant. That is, they've thoroughly blown teams out from quarters 1-3 that he could afford to make some mistakes in the 4th quarter and not impact the game any. It would be interesting (but too much work for me to do) to see how he fares in the 4th quarter with the game at, say, +/- 10 point margin. See how he does in close games in the 4th quarter.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

Eli is the man!

I can't believe he did it again. I know the Redskins suck but that was way tooo easy.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Brady lead two drives, one in the 4th quarter and one in OT to respectively tie the game with less than 2 minutes and no timeouts as well as to win the game with the go-ahead OT FG. Brady seems to have plenty of magic left.

 

[Lurks_All_Day]

Brady lead two drives, one in the 4th quarter and one in OT to respectively tie the game with less than 2 minutes and no timeouts as well as to win the game with the go-ahead OT FG. Brady seems to have plenty of magic left.

... all the while, being as cool as penguin crap while I'm sweating the ticking clock....

 

[condon84]

Brady lead two drives, one in the 4th quarter and one in OT to respectively tie the game with less than 2 minutes and no timeouts as well as to win the game with the go-ahead OT FG. Brady seems to have plenty of magic left.

When Brady is back in shotgun, in a spread formation, ball in his hands and making decisions, he's still as good as ever. When McD hogties his hands and take the ball away from him with trick plays, and other unnecessary crap, then our offense struggles. We made it to the SB last year with Brady in control. Had we have a better defense, then we would have won. Why McD is trying to reinvent the wheel is beyond me. We have an even more talented collection of players on offense, and yet McD has somehow manage to take our offense 5 steps back.

 

[nekromantique]

not really contributing to the thread...but why has brady changed his helmet? he wore a different one in the seattle game as well...usually wears the classic looking one...now has a revolution model. just find it odd. rarely see it.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

I don't know, i think it is a debatable question. He is getting older and may not have the same amount of fire he had when he started...that is just human nature, we are all in that boat really.

Sometimes you look at him and think, yeah, he looks bored but when they score on the field he is clearly fired up.

He is in his element when he is on the field and in rhythm. On the bench, from what I am seeing the camera show (those that go to the games can correct me if I am wrong), he seems genuinely uninterested, except for that Underwood/O'Brien circus show. Maybe it is not as much 'uninterested'..but more pissed thinking about a play he wanted back.

The whole magic thing I am not too sure on, but from what I understand he practices hard, he plays hard and he prepares hard. He keeps himself in good condition. He has excellent football IQ and good pocket presence. Has an excellent coach. Always had a good offensive line but never really any standout wideouts. He does very well considering all those things. The magic thing.....well, that is kinda just witchcraft-ery as far as I am concerned....

 

[PatsFanInVa]

:ugh:

Only better than most quarterbacks in the league these days on any given Sunday, and over a season, in the elite 3 every year. Bench the bum.

Granted, he won more Super Bowls from 2002-2005 (2001-2004 seasons,) and I guarantee you he won't win us as many games as in 2007. 2007 Brady could kick 2012 Brady's butt.

But we may get a few more years of elite QB out of him. I can live with that. "Magic" hasn't worked since SB38. I'd love to see a shored up O-line and secondary, though. I mean, just in case loss of magic isn't the entirety of the Pats' troubles.

 

[coolguy]

I don't know, i think it is a debatable question. He is getting older and may not have the same amount of fire he had when he started...that is just human nature, we are all in that boat really.

Sometimes you look at him and think, yeah, he looks bored but when they score on the field he is clearly fired up.

He is in his element when he is on the field and in rhythm. On the bench, from what I am seeing the camera show (those that go to the games can correct me if I am wrong), he seems genuinely uninterested, except for that Underwood/O'Brien circus show. Maybe it is not as much 'uninterested'..but more pissed thinking about a play he wanted back.

The whole magic thing I am not too sure on, but from what I understand he practices hard, he plays hard and he prepares hard. He keeps himself in good condition. He has excellent football IQ and good pocket presence. Has an excellent coach. Always had a good offensive line but never really any standout wideouts. He does very well considering all those things. The magic thing.....well, that is kinda just witchcraft-ery as far as I am concerned....

It's not that at all. Brady doesn't seem to have confidence in the players on the offense.
Brady doesn't trust the line to protect him anymore
Brady doesn't have confidence throwing to multiple receivers like the old days, so he has to rely mainly on gronk, welk, and aaron.
Brady doesn't trust his receivers skill set like he did a few years back.

This is one of the least athletic receiving cores brady has ever had.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

When Brady is back in shotgun, in a spread formation, ball in his hands and making decisions, he's still as good as ever. When McD hogties his hands and take the ball away from him with trick plays, and other unnecessary crap, then our offense struggles. We made it to the SB last year with Brady in control. Had we have a better defense, then we would have won. Why McD is trying to reinvent the wheel is beyond me. We have an even more talented collection of players on offense, and yet McD has somehow manage to take our offense 5 steps back.

BINGO! Nailed It! Pats stay with that mind set on offense from git'go and Ridley getting bulk of running game, Welker terrorizin slot and use an attack they displayed vs Broncos, this game could have been over by half time.
Put your seat belts on boys & girls 'caus roller coaster ride is gonna up & down & all around with BB & JMac's mixin & matchin personel, bein cute for NO REASON AT ALL!

 

[TinhWoodhead]

Tom Brady: Super Patriot - YouTube

 

[Finnishfan]

Nope. Tom Brady is as good as he has ever been. Perhaps better than ever. He was never the sole facilitator in our SB's, just a part of the puzzle.

Today people expect him to be the puzzle. We need him to score 30 points every week and that is not healthy, yet he still manages to lead us to great records every year.

I bet TB of 2004 wouldn't even get to the playoffs with this team.

Also glorifying the 2007 TB is pointless at this conversation, becouse he didn't deliver the silverware (so where's "the magic"?) and the success of that offense was as much about Randy Moss' ability to beat every imaginable coverage opponents could throw at him. TB has never had a receiver who can do that on the outiside, apart from Moss. He also opened up all kinds of routes underneath while beating double teams on the outside. Maroney was a horrible RB and still got a decent average becouse Moss forced the safeties to play 20 yards deep.

Back then midfield had a lot more space for TB to work with, and Moss was STILL available even though he was doubled on every down.

In addition to our WR talent level, the success of 2007 was also scheme-related. It took other teams 19 games to figure out that coverage schemes were pointless against all that talent but the slow developing deep routes caused us to be vulnerable to pressure.

 

[PatsWSB47]

The reports of Brady's death have been greatly exaggerated

 

[Uncle Rico]

Nice to see the little touch/arc pass becoming a more regular and effective effective part of TFB's arsenal. Reminds me of in baseball when the young thrower gets older and can't bring the heat anymore so becomes a "pitcher," rather than a "thrower." Except Brady can still bring the heat too.

 

[Joker]

doesn't look like Brady has lost his magic...

it DOES look like the International House Of Tardcakes has lost more than a few of its' flipjacks in this turdy thread.