Has Tom Brady lost his magic?

[Deus Irae]

Great post!

Is it fair to say that BB gambled on purpose by keeping all his primary focus on the O - understandably so because he has one of the rare selfless, intelligent and talented QB who had already delivered three rings + the league's push towards making the game more offense-friendly - and not concentrating on the D that much?

Looking at the first two rounds of the Patriots drafts after BB's first year:

Offense:

• First round - Graham, Watson, Mankins, Maroney, Solder
• Second round - Light, Branch, Johnson, Jackson, Vollmer, Gronkowski, Vereen

Defense:

• First round - Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Meriweather, Mayo, McCourty, Jones, Hightower
• Second round - Wilson, Hill, Wheatley, Chung, Brace, Butler, Cunningham, Spikes, Dowling, Wilson
  
  So, not counting that first year, where they were late to the party and still had Grier around, the Patriots have drafted 8 defensive players in the first round, compared to 5 offensive players. They've also drafted 10 defensive players in round 2 compared to 7 offensive players.
  
  12 total offensive players drafted in rounds 1-2 beginning in 2001
  18 total defensive players drafted in rounds 1-2 beginning in 2001

I bolded the defensive players that I think it's safe to say have been disappointments or busts, to date. I think that's where we can look if we want to see what the problem has been in terms of drafting.

When we get to trades, we can point to Haynesworth as the prime example of failure.

When we look at free agency, we see big disappointments like AdT, Burgess (although that was expected by a lot of us), Fanene, etc....

I don't think the problem is that BB gambled on purpose by keeping all his primary focus on the O. I think the problem is that his defensive personnel choices have been really spotty, and that he hid a huge drafting rough patch in just the years where he was starting the defensive rebuild via the draft (2007-2009) rather than free agency.*





*I think it's important to note, also, that the hits have been brilliant when drafting defensive players high in the first round, and that not drafting high is part of what's led to the decline. In taking a look at the first round choice of Meriweather in 2007, for example, we can see that he's basically the defensive demarcation player (along with Beason, who's really not a Patriots 3-4 type of LB, taken right after him), meaning those taken ahead of him largely turned out to be excellent players, while those taken below him were where the lesser players began.

 

[LivinLovin&Breathin_Brady]

The Arizona game wasn't as close as the score and the highlight reel made it appear. The Pats O was non-existent all game because of McDaniels' need to get Lloyd more involved in the offense and possibly because of Hernandez's injury, the refs blew a call( the Fitzgerald catch) which kept the Pats in a position to possibly win. Gronk and Gost blew the opportunity away, so that loss had nothing to do with Brady losing his magic.

Brady didn't lose the Ravens game, the referees did. Though I thought the play-calling could've been better at the end of that one too. I still believe the FG was no-good.

Brady did have two terrible quarters against the Seahawks. I'm not putting that loss on the D, that's all on Brady.

But Brady has not lost his magic, McDaniels is just confused about what smart plays to call in the last ten minutes of a game. Hopefully McDaniels will get more creative or just let Brady call all his own plays.

 

[jcdavey]

i'll say something for brady

as good as his offenses have been, i think other qbs even my own qb , have had more talent on offense around them than brady

hernandez is cool, gronk is cool, and welker is cool

but i think they're made better by brady, not the other way around

i think the one year he really had a major star in moss, you saw what he did numbers wise, he even lead a game winning sb drive that the D gave back even though for the most part that sb was a bad O performance.


he doesn't seem to have as good of an oline as he used to also obviously

the only thing i've seen from old brady to new brady that was weird to me, was that jim everett type phantom rusher stuff and for that i'd blame the oline

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

i'll say something for brady

as good as his offenses have been, i think other qbs even my own qb , have had more talent on offense around them than brady

hernandez is cool, gronk is cool, and welker is cool

but i think they're made better by brady, not the other way around

i think the one year he really had a major star in moss, you saw what he did numbers wise, he even lead a game winning sb drive that the D gave back even though for the most part that sb was a bad O performance.


he doesn't seem to have as good of an oline as he used to also obviously

the only thing i've seen from old brady to new brady that was weird to me, was that jim everett type phantom rusher stuff and for that i'd blame the oline

Of Gronk,Welker and Hernandez,I would say that only Hernandez would do fine if Brady wasn't his QB since he can do several things on offense and all pretty good.

 

[PATS16N0]

This thread is just full of bad mojo. The superstitious part of me thinks it should be deleted before it seeps into the universe and starts affecting it.

 

[Fencer]

Early in his career Brady was a great QB in the clutch, ordinary otherwise. At that point, "in the clutch" roughly equated to the hurry-up offense.

Now, there's no way to say "Brady is better in some kind of sets than others" and back it up unless you examine, in detail, how defenses react to those sets, and change their reactions over the season(s). 5-wide? Play-action? We've been debating for years whether the first is advisable, or whether the second shouldn't happen more.

I also think his accuracy goes up and down on certain kinds of throws over the years. E.g., I think it's down on swing passes from what it was earlier. I think it goes up and down on deep passes, even beyond the observation that Randy Moss could adjust to almost anything.

 

[manxman2601]

The root of the problem, as I see it, is that these closet Jest fans and trolls are allowed to make threads like these.

@ OP If you don't want Brady anymore because he's "lost his magic", I'm sure there are many other teams who'd take him. Would you like to give him up?

Most, if not all, of the losses can be blamed on the defense. When was the last time Brady was not able to give us a lead, only for it to be completely blown by the D?

The root of the problem is posts like this. It has come to pass that being in any way critical of the Pats gets you labelled as a closet Jets fan or troll. This is usually backed up a ridiculous straw man argument. Where in the OP did he say he no longer wanted Brady?

 

[fair catch fryar]

He's on a team with a defense where no lead is safe. If he leads the team to a 2 TD lead, I don't see how the loss is his fault. Not saying he's entirely blameless but he's also been on the wrong end of some unbelievably bad game plans and play calling by the OC's through the years.

Precisely. There never was any "magic". Just a really talented, hard-working team that never quit. If Brady had the same defense with Bruschi, Harrison and co. in their prime he would have 5, if not 6 Superbowl rings. The defense has been an utter disappointment since the epic 2nd half collapse against Indy in the '06 AFCCC.

 

[ausbacker]

He is a better QB than he was in 2004 than when he was collecting his third ring.

He was the MVP two years ago,
last year passed for the second most yards in NFL history,
and is now undoubtedly the key player and leader of the #1 offense in the game .

Chill.

Brady might be better but the teams he are on are not.

 

[Observer]

What is interesting to me is that the issue presented here- the better performance when chasing a score at the end of a game than when defending it is probably a universal feature of the game. Consider the other point of view- for the defense it would then seem that defending a late lead is also more difficult because the opposing offense is now behind and looking to aggressively score. I think it has more to do with the way defense is played in the two situations rather than the performance of the offense.
If your team has a late lead, you are likely to want to stop the big play but allow the opponent to move the ball slowly- something that we routinely see ATTEMPTED by our defense. This allows for easy short passes and hence higher QBR (including for Brady when he is chasing). On the other hand, if you are trailing, you want the ball back ASAP and tighten up your defense. At the same the the opposing offense goes conservative to avoid turnover. Both these effects would appear to work towards making it harder for the leading team but easier for the trailing team to advance the ball. In principle it shouldn't be so- perhaps coaches ought not to do the prevent defense when leading!

 

[BananaRepublican]

This thread is just full of bad mojo.

Bad mojo in yo head. If you give a thread power then it has power but only because you gave it power.

But it's power over you. Tom Brady couldn't care less.

 

[ausbacker]

This thread is just full of bad mojo. The superstitious part of me thinks it should be deleted before it seeps into the universe and starts affecting it.

I watched Eli escape a sack and land a catch on David Tyree's helmet and then 4 years later land a long conversion on the dime to Mario Manningham for a perfect pitch and catch. Whatever mojo is out there, it's already done its business.

 

[Hart Lee Chung]

Say what you want, but I think anyone in their right mind would still take Brady over any other QB in the league. I agree with Bill Belichick.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Meh, I think he's been brilliant aside from last week.
This is all with Gronk hobbled and Hern just getting back from his injury, and all this experimenting with the new offense.
Overreacting as always.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Say what you want, but I think anyone in their right mind would still take Brady over any other QB in the league. I agree with Bill Belichick.

its between him and rodgers

 

[Gronkowski123]

brady, eli, and peyton are the three best.

 

[coolguy]

its between him and rodgers

It's brady if you consider the talent level around the two.
Brady with the exception of the tight ends, is throwing to players that would third on most teams depth charts
Rodgers is throwing to explosive receivers that can actually stretch the field.


Has brady lost his magic"no.....Has bill lost his magic? yes and it's getting worse

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Personally I think the start of TB losing his edge came when he blew out his knee. That hit was devastating and it had a lasting impact on his Joe Cool pocket presence mojo. TB has simply not been the same clutch player since.
Can't prove it but I also suspect the G influence has not helped. Back in the championship days TB would get in the faces of Steeler DB's on the field during the game and then would abuse them by throwing at them and beating them.
Just a couple of years ago Jetsie Cromartie calls TB an A-hole in the NY media and TB goes out and lays an egg. The old TB would have been in the face of Cromartie on the field and throwing at the guy all night long.
Didn't happen that night. That "attitude" was missing and it has not been seen since.
TB is still a terrific player but he's not what he once was and it is up to the Patriots to address that.
The way they address it is to take the pressure off him. Incorporate the run game, go back to the dink and dunk, the screens plays etc. Having problems running?? Nothing will cause a defensive front to be on their heels like those TB-over-center-one-step-drop-throw-a-dart-to-a-receiver/TE-coming-off-the-line-to-pick-up-an-easy-4-to-5-yds-every-time-plays that Weis used to use. These are the kinds of plays that move the chains and close out games in the 4th qtr. We NEVER see them anymore. Not every play needs to be a thing of beauty.
Patriots need to get back to playing gritty football on both sides of the ball.
Defense needs to blitz more and the O needs to get back to the basics.
One of the greatest QB's of all-time (top 5 in my book) John Elway never won a SB until he was in the twilight of his career. The reason Elway won in his late 30's is because the Broncos stopped making their offense all about John Elway and his arm and incorporated a running game. Patriots need to do the same thing. Granted the Patriots don't have a Terrell Davis but the Pats have more than enough talent on offense to stop throwing the damn ball and exposing your QB 58 freakin' times.

 

[Deus Irae]

when's the last time he had a 4th qtr comeback?

Brady is #10 all time in 4th quarter comebacks. He's already had one this season, against Buffalo.

Tom Brady's Career 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[coolguy]

Brady is #10 all time in 4th quarter comebacks. He's already had one this season, against Buffalo.

Tom Brady's Career 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Brady can always get a 4th quarter comeback.....it's just that the defense gives up that said lead on the next series. Teams around the league have picked up on that.