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GUESSING at the Patriots' cap commitment

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Miguel, Mar 4, 2006.

  1. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    I freely admit that I can not reconcile my number with Clayton's 3/2 number.

    On January 22 the Boston Globe printed out the salary cap figures for the 40 players signed for the 2006 season at the time. I have no doubt that Mike Reiss used an official salary cap report as the basis for his numbers.

    Brady, Tom 14,430,470
    McGinest, Willie 8,327,220
    Seymour, Richard 7,420,720
    Colvin, Roosevelt 5,784,720
    Light, Matt 5,323,387
    Starke, Duane 5,136,720
    Dillon, Corey 4,356,720
    Green, Jarvis 3,651,720 * Note - It was reported as $370,000 but this had to be a typo
    Vrabel, Mike 3,540,220
    Harrison, Rodney 2,838,483
    Bruschi, Tedy 2,731,720
    Poole, Tyrone 2,516,668
    Faulk, Kevin 2,503,720
    Warren, Ty 2,225,053
    Wilfork, Vince 1,996,720
    Graham, Daniel 1,530,470
    Watson, Ben 1,426,720
    Gorin, Brandon 1,390,053
    Brown, Chad 1,242,500
    Mankins, Logan 1,176,720
    Hochstein, Russ 1,118,386
    Miller, Josh 976,720
    Beisel, Monty 919,220
    Wilson, Eugene 913,595
    Johnson, Bethel 834,720
    Izzo, Larry 801,720
    Branch, Deion 756,720
    Pass, Patrick 626,720
    Hill, Marquise 621,720
    Paxton, Lonie 612,720
    Klecko, Dan 546,720
    Samuel, Assante 536,845
    Koppen, Dan 495,720
    Hobbs, Ellis 481,720
    Banta-Cain, Tully 474,408
    Kanzur, Nick 448,720
    Sanders, James 411,720
    Cassell, Matt 330,220
    Wright, Mike 317,720
    Bailey, Rodney 108,334
    Reid, Dexter 187,500 * Actually not mentioned in the Globe - added by me
    Sam, P.K. 114,000
    Stokes, Andy 8,750 * Acutally not mentioned in the Globe - added by me
    Claridge, Ryan 352,220

    1/22/Total 92,547,561

    The Patriots then signed these 11 street free agents.
    Mortensen, Todd 241,720
    Charles, Earl 241,720
    Musinski, Rich 241,720
    Stone, John 391,720
    Steitz, Nick 241,720
    Roehl, Jeff 316,720
    Condo, Joe 316,720
    Spann, Antwain 241,720
    Ventrone, Raymond 241,720
    Britt, Wesley 241,720
    Krug, Ryan 241,720
    Total - 2,958,920

    The Patriots cap commitment after the 11 signings - 95,506,481

    With 51 players on the roster the rule of 51 takes effect lowering the net effect of a player's signing.

    4 more street free agents were signed. Listed below are the net cap effects of their signings. 176,880 total. Example - McGrew is listed as 81,720 because his 310,000 salary displaced a player who had a salary of $235,000 from the Top 51 list.

    Smith, Zuriel 81,720
    McGrew, Michael 6,720
    Thomas, Santonio 6,720
    Alexander, Eric 81,720

    The Patriots cap commitment after the 4 signings - 95,683,361

    Ryan Claridge's salary on the NFLPA site dropped from $310,000 to $235,000 which saved the Patriots $75,000 in cap space.

    The Patriots cap commitment after the Claridge salary decrease - 95,608,361

    The Patriots then signed Don Davis at a net cap cost of $256,720.

    The Patriots cap commitment after the Don Davis signing - 95,865,081

    The Patriots then released Duane Starks for a net cap savings of 3,371,720.

    The Patriots cap commitment after the Starks release - 92,493,361

    I suspect that the Patriots made tenders to their 5 ERFAs (Gay, Yates, Scott, Childress, and Mruczkowski for a total net cap cost of 558,600.

    Childress, Bam 6,720
    Scott, Guss 81,720
    Gay, Randall 156,720
    Mruczkowski, Gene 156,720
    Yates, Billy 156,720

    The Patriots cap commitment after the ERFA tenders - 93,051,961

    It was right after the Starks release that ProFootBallWeekly reported that the Patriots' cap number at that time was $500,000 below the then projected cap number of $93.25 million or 92,750,000 so my numbers were in the ball park at the time.

    On March 2nd I noticed that the salaries of Branch, Koppen, and Samuel have been increased for a total cap cost of $1,844,000.

    Branch, Deion 500,000
    Samuel, Assante 252,000
    Koppen, Dan 1,092,000

    The Patriots cap commitment after the 3 escalator salary increases - 94,895,961

    The Patriots signed Hank Poteat at a net cap cost of $256,720.

    The Patriots cap commitment after the Poteat signing - 95,152,681

    On March 1 John Clayton reported that the Pats were under the new projected cap number of $92 million by $1.5 million implying that the Patriots cap commitment was then $90.5 million. If Matt Light's $2.6 million LTBE incentive was no longer LTBE, then Clayton's report would make sense to me because the 3 salary increases and the Poteat signing probably occurred AFTER 3/1. But if Matt Light's LTBE incentive is now NLTBE, then the only explanation for how his salary goes from $1 million in 2006 to $3 million in 2007 is the reclassification of an incentive does not consitute a signing of a new contract.

    Later that day (March 1) according to Clayton the Patriots had $4.1 million of carry-over incentives hitting their cap so the Patriots adjusted cap number would be around 90.413 million.

    On March 2nd Clayton reported that the Pats were 4 million under the announced cap limit of $94.513 million. But if the Patriots' adjusted cap number is 90.4 million, then the Patriots would be right near that number before the escalator salary increases and the Poteat signing. If the Patriots were 4 million under their adjusted cap number, that means that their cap commitment would have been $86.4 million - a number that I am at a loss to explain. I also can not reconcile Clayton's statements (implying that the Patriots have a negative cap adjustment of $4.1 million with his report that they are under the cap by $4 million).

  2. cubedoggy

    cubedoggy Rookie

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    Excellent work as always, Miguel.
    Thanks.
  3. Triumph

    Triumph On the Roster

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    #32 Jersey

    They are under the cap without releasing McGinest. Thats good news.
  4. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    As far as I can tell, the Patriots are under the cap only if the LTBE incentives of Light was changed to NTLBE.
  5. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It would seem to make sense that any LTBE incentive by Light would now be NLTBE since he missed so many games, right?

    If the incentive we so small that he could have hit it last year, in the number of games he played, it seems illogical that it would have been written as an incentive rather than just salary.

    I guess the only thing contrary to that would be if the incentive were if the team made the playoffs??
  6. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Don't get too excited, this is with us losing Vinatieri, Givens, Neal and Ashworth. We need to get some real money under the cap to make up for those real loses.
  7. hwc

    hwc On the Roster

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    I'm at a loss to figure out how the Pats could have had $4.1 million in carry-over incentives. Other than Brady, nobody else of any consequence on the roster even played a full season, let alone had a stellar year statwise. What kind of NLTBE incentives could have been earned that would give the Pats the second highest cap adjustment in the league?

    It certainly wasn't any of the running backs. It certainly wasn't the defense. Maybe some of the journeymen who saw significant playing time hit some incentives, but how big could those be?
  8. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    What you say makes perfect sense to me.
  9. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    NLTBE possible offensive incentives
    Brady - his passing yards, etc.
    The Twig - starting in X games, as opposed to prior injury plagued seasons
    Watson, Graham - games played
    Tim Dwight - most any stat
  10. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    A couple of possibilities - Branch and Givens had career years. Dwight had much better stats in 2004 than in 2005. According to his agent he had $1.5 million in incentives.
  11. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    On defense you have guys like Warren, Wilfork, Seymour, Vrabel, Colvin, Samuel.

    Others on O not mentioned are Hochstein, Ashworth, Gorin, Brown (seems logical there was some incentive in his contract) Pass.
  12. AdamJT13

    AdamJT13 Rookie

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    Miguel, the Patriots' official cap adjustment came in a $2,026,060. Perhaps Clayton's number was just the charges, without the credits.
  13. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rookie

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    94.513 - 2.026

    So, is our cap without a new deal ... 92.487 ?
  14. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Thanks for the info. That clears some things up, I think ;)
  15. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Yes, the Pats can not commit more than $92.487 million to the 2006 cap. The Patriots' cap adjustment was the 3rd highest debit in the NFL trailing only the Raiders and the Dolphins.
  16. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Let's presume that the LTBE incentives of Light, Hochstein and Gorin are now all NLTBE. As far as I can tell, the Patriots would then be $1.1 million under their adjusted cap number.

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