Grist For The Mill

[Ron Sellers]

ok lets draft more DBs and WRs our GM/HC/OC/DC has a great track record of selecting players at these positions. i never said we drafted tight ends poorly, you did.

I brought up tight ends to show how silly the concept of 'we should never ever ever again draft a (fill in the position) between the rounds of (fill in the rounds that are cherry picked to fit said argument) because (fill in the name of the players that did not live up to your expectations)'. Prior to 2010 the same identical argument could be made for drafting tight ends based on the logic you presented, in my opinion. In fact, others on this site said exactly that.

read your post. i said we did a decent job of drafting tight ends, certainly not poorly enough to stop drafting them. You listed players, and the only busts were those picked in rounds 4 through 7. I chose players drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, premium picks.

Sounds to me like you're picking specific rounds to fit an argument. And as mentioned before your definition of a bust seems to vary from position to position to fit your argument.

going forward i would not be too thrilled if we selected DBs and WRs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. do i think we could potentially do well there? of course. But id rather sign current nfl veterans at these positions and draft where we have drafted well. therefore, we have a greater liklihood of improving the team.

Adding veterans rather than rookies, whether it be by free agency or a trade, is not some magic elixir either. Do I really need to list all the veteran wide receivers and defensive backs added over the last decade that didn't live up to expectations either?


Talent evaluation is not really all that different for college personnel or veteran NFL players. The reality is that you're going to miss as often as not with either one. Think of it like baseball, where even the best hitters are making an out two out of three at bats, and less like hockey where even a below-average goalie is making a save on nine out of ten shots he faces.


I just personally think it would be highly counter-productive to be looking at a draft board, it's the Patriots turn to draft, everybody agrees that the team should take a certain player, and then someone says 'wait, we can't take him because the last couple of times we drafted a player at that position it didn't work out' ... and then go on to the next highest rated player on the board and go through the same exact scenario.



I'm not trying to pick on you specifically; what am I attempting to counter is the argument. It is an argument that many here adhere to, and in my opinion it does not really make a lot of sense to me. In my opinion it is an overreaction to a very small sample size, combined with unrealistic expectations on the overall performance and productivity of players selected in the draft.


When you only have a very limited number of bullets in your holster, why purposely throw some of them away?

 

[bucky]

ok lets draft more DBs and WRs our GM/HC/OC/DC has a great track record of selecting players at these positions.

You're right. BB became one of the greatest coaches of all time because when he wasn't successful at doing something, instead of trying to improve he just quit.

 

[BradyFTW!]

ok lets draft more DBs and WRs our GM/HC/OC/DC has a great track record of selecting players at these positions. i never said we drafted tight ends poorly, you did. read your post. i said we did a decent job of drafting tight ends, certainly not poorly enough to stop drafting them. You listed players, and the only busts were those picked in rounds 4 through 7. I chose players drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, premium picks. going forward i would not be too thrilled if we selected DBs and WRs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. do i think we could potentially do well there? of course. But id rather sign current nfl veterans at these positions and draft where we have drafted well. therefore, we have a greater liklihood of improving the team.

How would you prefer that the Patriots spend their second round picks?

 

[billdog3484]

i think if all of what i wrote was discussed maybe there could be some sort of discussion. but if you are going to pick certain pieces of what I wrote, you cannot.

lets just keep drafting WRs and DBs in the 2nd and 3rd round. we'll hit...eventually.

 

[billdog3484]

How would you prefer that the Patriots spend their second round picks?

i would prefer if we selected players that actually play on our team and perform decently (not great, just decent). thats all. i could care less what position. is BB capable of drafting CBs and WRs? i guess so. but i really havent been too impressed with his track record. have any of you? i am sure many of you feel the same way as i do. It just sickens me that pick after pick after pick after pick in these 2 rounds ends up sucking. i understand we had one amazing draft, but the others have been sup-par. we have so many picks. can we trade up and take a great player once or twice a decade

 

[Deus Irae]

i would prefer if we selected players that actually play on our team and perform decently (not great, just decent). thats all. i could care less what position. is BB capable of drafting CBs and WRs? i guess so. but i really havent been too impressed with his track record. have any of you? i am sure many of you feel the same way as i do. It just sickens me that pick after pick after pick after pick in these 2 rounds ends up sucking. i understand we had one amazing draft, but the others have been sup-par. we have so many picks. can we trade up and take a great player once or twice a decade

Second round picks in the BB era:

2011 1 33 Ras-I Dowling DB Virginia
2011 24 56 Shane Vereen RB California
2010 10 42 Rob Gronkowski TE Arizona
2010 21 53 Jermaine Cunningham LB Florida
2010 30 62 Brandon Spikes LB Florida
2009 2 34 Patrick Chung DB Oregon
2009 8 40 Ron Brace DT Boston College
2009 9 41 Darius Butler DB Connecticut
2009 26 58 Sebastian Vollmer T Houston
2008 31 62 Terrence Wheatley DB Colorado
2006 4 36 Chad Jackson WR Florida
2004 31 63 Marquise Hill DE Louisiana State
2003 4 36 Eugene Wilson DB Illinois
2003 13 45 Bethel Johnson WR Texas A&M
2002 33 65 Deion Branch WR Louisville
2001 17 48 Matt Light T Purdue
2000 15 46 Adrian Klemm T Hawaii

Bold = clear hits
Italics = jury still out
Underline = fairly called disappointment to date, or clear bust
Hill died before he could get a fair evaluation behind that line

7 clear hits
2 jury still out
7 disapointments/busts

There was a period of time where there were real struggles, especially with the picks for the defense, but your position on this seems unfair to me. The Patriots have been excellent at the draft overall. They had a 3 year window of struggle (2006-2008) and a year that looked much better at first than in the long run (2009), but they've been very solid beyond that. 2010 saw them clearly get back on track, and it's too soon to evaluate 2011.

 

[BradyFTW!]

i would prefer if we selected players that actually play on our team and perform decently (not great, just decent). thats all. i could care less what position. is BB capable of drafting CBs and WRs? i guess so. but i really havent been too impressed with his track record. have any of you? i am sure many of you feel the same way as i do. It just sickens me that pick after pick after pick after pick in these 2 rounds ends up sucking. i understand we had one amazing draft, but the others have been sup-par. we have so many picks. can we trade up and take a great player once or twice a decade

I think that the Pats do a very good job drafting overall. Trying to break it down to position and round will just run you into all of the standard problems that you get when you look at a too-small sample size.

 

[Off The Grid]

Well, this thread had a nice run!! :lol2:

Thanks for the kind words, Gents!!

Some of us get it.

Some of us simply don't...and never will.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Well, this thread had a nice run!! :lol2:

Thanks for the kind words, Gents!!

Some of us get it.

Some of us simply don't...and never will.

I'm guessing that you must either live in a very large enclosure, outside in the woods, or are housebound - because there is no way that the size of your head could ever fit within a standard doorway.

 

[reflexblue]

I'm guessing that you must either live in a very large enclosure, outside in the woods, or are housebound - because there is no way that the size of your head could ever fit within a standard doorway.

I think hes referring to how this thread descended from discussing the teams philosophy and hows its changed and how it needs go back into an argument between a couple of posters about BBs ability to draft. Which is typical

 

[ATippett56]

Sample size of 1, Patriots were playing from behind, etc. etc.

How is leading at halftime 10-9 and in the third quarter 17-9 playing from behind?

 

[Deus Irae]

How is leading at halftime 10-9 and in the third quarter 17-9 playing from behind?

Well, trailing 9-0 after the offense had only run one play first quarter would be an obvious point, don't you think?

 

[ATippett56]

I honestly don't believe the running game is a problem at all.

I seriously question whether Danny Woodhead is the change of pace running back of the future. Against the Ravens and the Giants in the playoffs, the following rushing statistics for Danny Woodhead:

13 rushes for 36 rushing yards with the longest run of 6 yards

That is an average of less than 3 yards per carry.

 

[ATippett56]

Well, trailing 9-0 after the offense had only run one play first quarter would be an obvious point, don't you think?

Let's run the first offensive play from scrimmage with an empty backfield, so the New York Giants defense don't have to respect a run play whatsoever. In the meantime, the New York Giants defense was ranked 19th against the rush.

 

[Deus Irae]

Let's run the first offensive play from scrimmage with an empty backfield, so the New York Giants defense don't have to respect a run play whatsoever. In the meantime, the New York Giants defense was ranked 19th against the rush.

So, basically, you've got nothing and BradyFTW! was correct while you were wrong.

You could have just said that.

 

[ATippett56]

So, basically, you've got nothing and BradyFTW! was correct while you were wrong.

You could have just said that.

Prior to the New England Patriots first offensive play from scrimmage, the score was 0-0.

 

[Off The Grid]

The continued denials of the "We Don't Need No Steenkling RUN Game!!" crowd are very amusing!!

Super Bowl 36 ~ Pass/Run = 27/24 ~ Running = 47% ~ Victory!! :rocker:

Super Bowl 38 ~ Pass/Run = 48/35 ~ Running = 42% ~ Victory!! :rocker:

Super Bowl 39 ~ Pass/Run = 33/28 ~ Running = 46% ~ Victory!! :rocker:

Super Bowl 42 ~ Pass/Run = 48/16 ~ Running = 25% ~ Defeat!!

Super Bowl 46 ~ Pass/Run = 43/19 ~ Running = 31% ~ Defeat!!

Yeah, no correlation, there!!

***

I'll grant you: As I said in the OP, the Packers and Saints of the last two years won the Super Bowls with distinctly Pass Heavy offenses...But that's 2 of ELEVEN!! 2-9!!

You "We Don't Need No Steenking RUN Game" guys go ahead and ROLL with that, if you like...

I'll put my coin on a BALANCED Offense, thank you VERY much!!

 

[ATippett56]

I'll put my coin on a BALANCED Offense, thank you VERY much!!

BenJarvus Green-Ellis versus the Baltimore Ravens defense in the AFC Championship Game:

15 rushes for 68 rushing yards which equals to 4.5 yards per carry against the second ranked rush defense in the NFL.

Someone forgot to feed the beast in the Super Bowl against the 19th ranked rush defense in the NFL!

 

[RhodyPatriot]

You WANT their defense on the field for as long as possible, that allows you to gash them late in the game when their gassed. You also want to limit the time their offense has to make up scores, the more they try to force things because they dont have much time to score the more mistakes they make.

No matter what the situation, being able to bleed the clock and keep the opposing defense on the field, as well as protecting your QB, are all GOOD things!

Bingo!! Not sure why this is so difficult for some of our experts here.

When you know the defense of your team is your weak link does it make more sense to take 8 minutes in a scoring drive or do you hurry up and take 3 minutes to score?? This is what has changed over the past few years with the Patriots and it's why they struggle in big games. The Patriots offense that they're MOST effective in the no huddle/hurry up mode. They're almost like a gimmick offense. They outright refuse to play basic smashmouth football. They are very vanilla (Brady in shotgun either empty or with 1 RB) and rarely give other defenses something new to think about. The QB and his ego has a lot to do with this (Brady prefers shotgun so that's all we get, shotgun) and it's why they don't play well in big games and they no longer win championships.
Until the Patriots reel in Tom Brady and put this offense back in balance by having the ability to long drive the field via the run/short passing game and to be able to do so at any time during any game the Patriots are not winning anything.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

...

I couldn't care less about going 13-3.

I care only about building a team that wins in the Dead of Winter.

I care only about building a team that should expect to beat teams like the Ravens...and the Giants.

...
...

~ We need to develop an O Line that can exert its Will upon any team in the World.

~ We need Running Backs who can consistently exploit that advantage.

~ And we need our leadership to finally remember how critical it is to do so.

That's my take from the Super Bowl...not that I haven't been screaming this for the last 5 years.

...
I like the direction our Defense is headed in.

And I pray we bring in Impact Players, for the D Line in particular.

OutSide Receivers?? Sounds good to me. Spread the enemy out.

By all means.

...
But, above all, I want to feel like we can impose our Will on the enemy...Like we did in 2001, 2003, and especially in 2004, in that beautifull Divisional PlayOffs domination of the Colts, when we slowly, incrementally, and relentlessly drove down the field, 4 or 5 yards at a time, CONSUMED the Clock, rested our Defense, and slowly, incrementally, and relentlessly...KILLED them.

...

Have you hacked onto the double-super-secret hot line that connects John Mara, Jerry Reese and Tom Coughlin again? Because that all sounds an awful lot like what they decided about five or six years ago.

Naughty boy! Hacking is bad.

But I agree with just about everything you say (except for the part about being able to watch SB XLII...I'll admit that I'm with Bob Kraft on that one...can't bear to watch a play).