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Grid Goes Off The Deep End...But On The Record!!

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Off The Grid, Oct 19, 2012.

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  1. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    #3 Jersey

    Time to break out the Thread Blocker Application, Boys!! :D

    Outrageously Ludicrous Prediction Alert!!

    The New EngLand FootBall Patriots' Record 21 Game Winning Streak Will Get Eclipsed in the next 16 Months by...The ( Currently 3-3 ) New EngLand FootBall Patriots!! Hah!!

    And, yes: I am aware that the Colts possess the longest regular season winning streak.

    It's just that, well...I don't care.

    If it wasn't for those pesky PlayOff Games, the Colts' "record" might actually matter.

    Alas...It does not.

    Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth

    Reviewing the almost universal Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth that I am bemused to observe on the Message Boards of PatsFans.com ~ and which History assures me are highly representative of what I might hear on the AirWaves, were I inclined to listen ~ it seems clear that the general consensus is that the Patriots are destined for The Abyss. :eek:

    In other words: This team ~ so the prevailing "wisdom" seems to hold ~ is fatally flawed: Other maladies aside, the Secondary sucks, and we are destined to fall victim to the first pass-oriented, high-flying Offense that we meet in the PlayOffs...if we even make the PlayOffs.

    Is that about right?

    As such, I am fairly certain that what I have to say today will be met with almost universal contempt and scorn.

    And even the more objective and kindly Souls will most likely shake their heads indulgently and wonder how many drinks I've had at this early hour. :eek:

    ...And not without good reason. ;)

    Read the next part only if you're really bored!!

    20,000 to 1!!

    So here it is:

    I would be very happy to bet ~ should Vegas come up with a Line on it ~ that, within the next 16 months, the New EngLand Patriots will see their all-time record 21 Game Winning Streak broken...by the New England Patriots!!

    Considering that we're currently 3-3, and that it seems, in the wake of Russell Wilson's remarkable success, that my GrandMother could put up 300 Yards on us in a given week...what do you suppose the Vegas Line on my lunatic prediction coming true would be??

    Well, 62.5% to the 21st Power on your Calculator (.625 Y to the X 21) gives about 20,000 to 1.

    That sounds about right, yes?

    That implies, in the wake of our 3-3 start, an average of a 62.5% chance each of winning of 21 Games in a row.

    Including PlayOffs.

    The real Formula would be far more complicated, of course, but I'm just looking for a ball park figure.

    62.5% implies about a 10-6 record, this year and next, and an equal advantage in any given PlayOff Game.

    Given our 3-3 start, and the current public mood ~ which of course is the dominant consideration when the constituents of Vegas set their Lines ~ that sounds about right to me.

    And of course The House has to consider its OverHead...so a practical Line ~ were I to try to establish one ~ would likely be closer to, say, 10,000 to 1. On a practical basis, that actually makes sense for both Parties: I'm quite sure that the vast majority of such Long Shot Bets go uncovered. That is to say: The House covers them, themselves.

    Why would they do so? Well, because they've calculated the practical odds ~ and 20,000 to 1 is probably pretty close to what they'd come up with ~ and've slanted the table dramatically in their favor: 10K to 1 being the PayOff.

    Any Accountant or BookKeeper will tell you: cover enough such Bets, and you'll make tons of Money, even assuming that ~ every once in a while ~ the LongShot hits.

    The difference between the real Odds and the Odds they pay the occasional Winner...is what makes their Profit.

    All of which is to say: By all means give me grief if this spectacular Long Shot fails to hit.

    All I ask is: let us just remember how dramatic the odds are against it coming true.

    Well...at least according to most. ;)

    Arguments in Support of my Latest Insanity, Part 1

    1 ~ Most Fans continue to make the foolish mistake of extrapolating mediocre starts under Coach Belichick: 3-3 does not necessarily mean we're going 8-8. Yet many react precisely that way...and worse!!

    2 ~ The last time we started 3-3 ~ 2005 ~ we finished 10-6...And that was with an aging team:

    ~ PB Corey Dillon sucked that year: one year after'is 1635 Yard Swan Song, he produced 733 Yards on 3.5 YPC.
    ~ We went from 7th in Rushing Yards to 24th, as the Offense became One Dimensional...as it would remain.
    ~ MF Teddy Ice Cold Bruschi returned, and heroically...but never again attained his pre-Stroke Level.

    Even so, that team might very well've won it all, if not for an epidemic of injuries to our Offensive Backs.

    Yet I highly doubt that the majority thought we were anything but fodder, after that 3-3 start. Yes?

    3 ~ The 2002 team started 3-3, and were robbed ~ as the 2008 team would be ~ by the unfathomably asinine TieBreaking Rules that completely ignore the only other TieBreaker ~ besides Head to Head ~ that matters worth a Damn: Strength of Schedule. Why that is, I cannot possibly imagine: Strength of Schedule quite obviously measures who faced tougher competition and truly earned their Record. The other TieBreakers are garbage.

    4 ~ The only other time we started 3-3 under Bill The Mad (Genius) was of course in 2001.

    In all fairness, the Super Bowl was the last thing on my mind, back then.

    But the point is: overreacting to poor starts is incredibly foolish, given Mad Bill's Body of Work:

    5 ~ The 2001 Team went 0-2 and 1-3...and then went 12-2 and won the Super Bowl!!

    6 ~ The 2003 Team went 0-1 and 2-2...and then went 21-0 and won two Super Bowls!!

    7 ~ The 2005 Team went 5-5...and then suddenly went 5-0 to clinch a PlayOff spot.

    8 ~ The 2006 Team went 6-3...and then went 8-1 before having a Super Bowl stolen from them.

    9 ~ The 2008 Team went 7-5...and then went 4-0 and were quite possibly the best team in the League ~ under a backup QB most of us had wanted cut, a week before he got the job ~ before being screwed by TieBreakers.

    10 ~ And the 2011 Team went 5-3...before going 10-0 and coming within an hair of winning it all.

    Point: If you write us off, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being incredibly foolish.

    And, indeed...

    If you count us out of the Elite, based on what we've seen the first 6 weeks, you are being incredibly foolish.
  2. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    Arguments in Support of my Latest Insanity, Part 2

    In fact, 2002, 2010, and even the much-maligned 2009 included strong finishes, 2009 being crippled at the last hour by the loss of Wes Welker.

    Even in 2007, our second half managed to eclipse our astonishing 8-0 first half, as we won an additional 10 in a row, before being royally screwed by the verminous, pestilential scum who repeatedly stopped the clock for Eli.

    Even in 2004, after we fell to 6-1 with injuries gutting our team and the Chicken Littles screeching and wailing...we finished with a magnificent 11-1 flourish, and our 3rd World Championship in 4 years.

    Why so many foolishly continue to fail to grasp ~ even after 11 years of this, mind you ~ that Mad Bill's Patriots are usually far more dangerous in December and beyond than they are in September and October...is beyond me.

    Arguments in Support of my Latest Insanity, Part 3

    Even so, it's quite reasonable to say that for me to postulate that this 3-3 team is on the verge of putting together a 22+ game winning streak...I must've lost what little was left of my Sanity.

    Well, I have a few Supportive Arguments. Make of them what you will:

    1 ~ This Team is incredibly young. I'm sure I needn't explain that that means our compass is pointed North.

    2 ~ This Team is incredibly talented, though both our O Line and our Secondary are very Raw.

    3 ~ This Team, in fact, commands greater overall Depth of Talent, throughout our 53...than we've ever had.

    4 ~ Perhaps most importantly, this Team boasts a young Core of Talent ~ Nate "Universal" Solder, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo, Donta HighTower, Devin McCourty, Nate Ebner, Stevan Ridley, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and many more ~ who bring exceptional Leadership and Character to this Locker Room, in addition to that which Tom Brady and Vince Wilfork command. These kids are smart, passionate, and focused.

    That will make a profound difference, in the months and years ahead, as this Team continues to develop.

    The Secondary

    Yes, the Secondary is suspect, and has been for the last few years.

    I believe that concerns about the coaching that they're receiving are very valid...but perhaps just a bit overwrought.

    Coach Patricia has a strong track record. Do we honestly think our Secondary is unlikely to improve considerably??

    And, uh...It seems to me that his Boss might be helpful in overcoming our technical flaws, as well...yes??

    These kids are young, smart, and, yes, believe it or not: talented.

    Their collective performance of late has been hideous.

    No argument.

    But do we honestly believe, after 11 years of strong finishes ~ often with epidemics of injuries ~ that Mad Bill and'is Disciples have suddenly forgotten how to coach Defensive Backs??

    I, for one, do not.

    And I do hereby predict that our Secondary's performance, over the next 16 weeks ~ and 16 months!! ~ will be so greatly improved as to astonish most Patriots Fans...although, based on History, it really should not astonish them.


    The Alleged Demise of Tom Brady

    Good Lord.

    The sewage I've read this week ~ much of it from people who actually get paid to write!! ~ has been hilarious.

    That's it.

    No further response is warranted.

    Arguments in Support of my Latest Insanity, Part 4

    1 ~ We have one of the 4 greatest Head Coaches of the last 80 years. And his continuingly bold improvisations make it crystal clear that he is light years away from getting satisfied, resting on'is laurels...or losing his Edge.

    2 ~ We have one of the 4 greatest QuarterBacks of the last 80 years, as well, as incredible coincidence and great Fortune have it. And he's still about 4 years away from where you have to start asking if his best days are behind'm.

    3 ~ In case you haven't noticed, we have the makings of a dominant ~ again: dominant ~ Defensive Front 7. Chandler Jones ~ in case you haven't noticed ~ is fast-tracking towards Stardom. Jermaine Cunningham ~ who called it, Baby??? ~ is, in the words of Gunny Hartman, Born Again Hard. Vince Wilfork is the best Nose Tackle in the Galaxy. Kyle Love is on the rise. Rob Ninkovich, Jake Bequette, Trevor Scott, & Justin Francis are a young, tough, passionate, highly talented crew that provide astonishing, unrivaled Depth of Talent at Dragoon, and our 3 MidFielders ~ Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, & Donta HighTower ~ could very well be considered the best crew of in the League by this time, next year...or even much, much sooner.

    4 ~ This Offense ~ a terrifying fusion of the 2004, 2007, & 2010 Offenses ~ combines a mauling, crushing, pounding, thrashing Running Game that is even more dangerous that the 2004 version with a downfield Air Offense that rivals the potency of the 2007 Air Offense, along with the demolishing, terrorizing mayhem wrought by the Rob "Kong" Gronkowski & Aaron "The Navigator" Hernandez Tight End Offense of 2010.

    Furthermore, our capacity to toggle seamlessly between all 3 Offenses, in or out of the Huddle, render this Offense horrifying to the Enemy: As long as Tom Brady continues to Use The Whole Pig, as I beseeched'm to do, before the season began, DC's can no longer just tell their Pass Rush to tee off on'm, for our Running Game will simply destroy them.

    Simply put, this team ~ and I mean: over the next 2 or 3 years or so ~ could become the best of them all.

    Arguments in Support of my Latest Insanity, Part 5

    So, here's my thinking, on a more abstract level:

    There is an Ebb & Flow to things...

    When Great Empires are on their way down, they often reach points where it appears that they're bottoming out...

    Yet that is often when the bottom falls out.

    And I'm reasonable enough to recognize that that may indeed be the case, here...

    ...Or even that we're simply at a Stage in a long, slow decline.

    Presumably, The Belichick Dynasty will reach that point at some point.

    I think we all agree on that.

    Even Mad Bill, himself.

    Well...maybe. :D

    But my gut feeling ~ based on watching Mad Bill craftily, carefully reload this team over the last four years ~ is that we're just getting started.

    My gut is telling me, in fact, that our Dynasty's Best Days...are yet to come.

    And, indeed...I believe we are at their very Dawn.
  3. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    #3 Jersey

    Well, if nothing else: This should provide a consolidated target for all the bile and venom!! :D
  4. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Ahhh care to elaborate?
  5. Kenneth Sims

    Kenneth Sims Rookie

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    Wow! I would like nothing better (sports fan wise that is) than to have your prediction come true.
  6. randomk1

    randomk1 Rookie

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    Didn't bother reading it. 22 straight wins from now? Not going to happen. Let's start by getting a win against a team we should beat.
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2012
  7. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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  8. randomk1

    randomk1 Rookie

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    Well...umm we might not have a dominant D but we do have a dominant NT.
  9. Palm Beach Pats Fan

    Palm Beach Pats Fan Rookie

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    and then Onesies become a world-wide fashion trend, with "casual Fridays" becoming "Onesie Fridays".

    [​IMG]
  10. Creative Username

    Creative Username Rookie

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    I've always been a fan of Off the Grid's pieces.

    So to me, this work is a stroke of brilliance, much like everything else he writes. Maybe I'm mad, and maybe I'm not. But I'd pay him to write sports material as he does, because the crop of "analysts" just aren't doing it for me. "Numbers Never Lie?" Yeah, that's right, Michael Smith, Brady`s won 3 Superbowls and according to OTG, will have a fourth this year.


    And to Off the Grid himself, this is one of your more interesting predictions, if I do say so myself. Well done and keep up the good work. Even if half this board doesn't understand your genius.
  11. olschool

    olschool Rookie

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    LSD and Jack Daniels will do this to you.

    It's okay, there's an app for that.
  12. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    The next 6 weeks they play crap after crap so that better be 9-3. If they get to 11-3 you'll have my attention.
  13. Boomer B

    Boomer B Rookie

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    IF you don't mind, i'm gonna use the line "the verminous, pestilential scum" . That is bloody brilliant! Can't wait to call someone that!
  14. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    #3 Jersey

    :youtheman:

    You humble me, Brother Creative UserName!! [​IMG]

    One'f the greatest, kindest compliments I've ever gotten, man.

    And not expected, with this post of mine. Thank you, Sir. :cool:
  15. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    #3 Jersey

    Please DO!! That would bring me considerable Joy!! :D
  16. Joey007

    Joey007 Rookie

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    #95 Jersey

    Grid, if you're wrong I'm getting the pitchfork's out. :rolleyes:
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2012
  17. CheeseMonkeys

    CheeseMonkeys Rookie

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    If your prediction comes true, I will send you $100 paypal. QUOTE ME ON THAT!

    I'm a cheap bastard, I know...
  18. Creative Username

    Creative Username Rookie

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    I've been reading your works for quite a while now... I just never knew how to properly compliment you.

    The boldness and certainty of your posts, and your overwhelming confidence just speaks to the quality of fans that the Patriots gather.
  19. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    #3 Jersey

    Hey, every little bit helps in The War Effort!! GREATLY appreciated, Sir!! :D
  20. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    #3 Jersey

    [​IMG]

    Um...could you clarify, please?

    That's kind of looking like a lose/lose for me. :eek:
  21. Joey007

    Joey007 Rookie

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    #95 Jersey

    I meant wrong. Now if you excuse me I'm going to hit my head on a file cabinet now. :bricks:
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2012
  22. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Rookie

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    Danger! ... Danger! ... Danger Will Robinson!

    Patrick "Lost in Space" Chung patrols the New England Patriots defensive secondary! :eek:

    Attached Files:

  23. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    #3 Jersey

    He does?? [​IMG]

    ...Then somebody should probably tell'm. :p
  24. Creative Username

    Creative Username Rookie

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    I'm not entirely sure that he understands the concept of stopping a pass play.
  25. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Grid, your post is a tribute to the miracles of modern pharmacology. The fact that you posted it in the middle of the day suggests a lifestyle that the rest of us poor idiots who are tied to work-a-day jobs and responsibilities can only envy. Thank you for letting us live vicariously through you.

    Based on this thread, if your life were a movie, it would be titled "Goodbye, Boston," the punch line would be "Chemicals!" and Mrs. Robinson would be smokin' hot!






    (BTW, put me down for $10 if you get the 20,000 to one booked.)
  26. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    #3 Jersey

    That's what I'm talkin' about!! :rocker:

    I don't care if you Cats agree with me, or not...

    All I ask is that if you're gonna defenestrate my @$$...do it with Style!! Well played, Brother 74!! [​IMG]

    And, yes, Mrs Robinson is. :D
  27. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There are certainly lots of deserving candidates. :D
  28. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Why so conservative, Brother Grid. Why not go for the Wizard of Westwood's all time 88 game winning streak? :D

    Seriously, the thought has crossed my mind that the Pats has the NFL and the media right where they want them:

    - We've lost 3 games by a total of 4 points, 2 of them on the road, and 2 of them out of conference. That's a missed FG, a questionable FG, and one bad pass play away from being 6-0. That's keeping the media (and board) asking "what's wrong" with the team and giving them a huge chip on their shoulder. A 3-3 record is keeping the Pats from being prohibitive early favorites, which would put enormous pressure and expectations on a young team too early, and giving the team time to develop and mature.
    - As has been pointed out by others, how teams start is increasingly less valuable in the NFL. The 2009 Giants started 5-0 and failed to make the playoffs. The 2001 Pats team started 5-5 before winning their last 10 games. The 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants, 2010 Packers and 2011 Giants all started slow and had to fight their way into the playoffs before winning it all.
    - There are few if any "elite" teams, especially in the AFC. Texas is 5-1 but looked sluggish against the Jets and got blown out by Green Bay at home, and has lost Brian Cushing for the season. They have little playoff experience. Baltimore is 5-1 but barely won several games and has lost Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season, and their defense looks awful. Pittsburgh looks old and inconsistent, and their OL is in tatters. San Diego had an atrocious collapse against Denver.
    - The Pats 2 most difficult remaining games, against Houston and San Francisco, are at home. The Jets (twice), Miami (twice), Buffalo (home), Jacksonville, Indy and St. Louis (London) are all eminently winnable. Not gimmes, but certainly winnable.

    The bottom line is that I still believe that the talent base on this team is the best since the 2003-2004 SB years, and the best in the NFL. It's a young team, and the limited preseason along with some key injuries probably contributed to some early problems which need to be corrected. But unlike the 2009 team, there is no attitude problem, and I don't see anything to make me believe that this team won't be able to turn the corner and go on a run like the 2010 and 2011 teams did, both of which went 8-0 the second half of the season. It would take a lot of things getting fixed, but it wouldn't shock me to see this team win out the rest of the way and get to the SB, which would take 12-13 consecutive wins. If that happens, then I think we can talk about bigger predictions.
  29. AQPE

    AQPE Rookie

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    I'll join the fraternity of the hopeful, any time. Giants twice (ouch! OUCH!) and Packers proved in the very recent past that what counts is to get the wagon rolling heading into the playoffs.

    Rock on, OTG
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2012
  30. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #51 Jersey

    I'd admire the optimism OTG but I can't see this Defense going on a meaningful win streak of record proportion.
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