PatsFans.com Menu
PatsFans.com - The Hub For New England Patriots Fans

Great Drafting Strategy/Theory Article


Status
Not open for further replies.
That's a nifty article, but it seems to me half of it's missing. It's not enough to ask when the starters at each position were drafted; you also have to ask how often each position is chosen in each round, and their rates of success. That's a little garbled, but...

Suppose 50% of all QBs drafted were drafted in round 1, but that draft round had no correlation at all to QB success. His analysis would still conclude that it's critical to take a QB in the 1st.

Basically, there's a significant element of self-fulfilling prophesy at work. Positions like QB and DT are considered high value, so a lot of them are taken high in the draft, so a lot of starters at those positions come from high in the draft, so we conclude the positions are high value.
 
Interesting, I concur with patchick's critique, but thought I'd apply it to my Master Board and shopping list....

Box_O_Rocks said:
Duh Box_O_Rocks' Draft Master Board :eat1:

Defensive Linemen: Using this article, my DT board is looking for role players, since I'm not targeting elite talent in the 1st round. This works for me, I'm looking for 3-4 DL who will suck up blockers on running plays to free LBs, and as a bonus, collapse the pocket to spring a LB free to hurry the QB. Stanley, Cofield, and Jolly - at law - are primarily run stuffers with some pocket collapsing skills. Littlejohn is uncertain, but seems to have the tools to fit that description. Burton is a pure run stuffer. The author suggests they can be found and taken anytime it fits your BPA assessment.
1st day - Montavius Stanley, Barry Cofield
2nd day - Johnny Jolly, Jeff Littlejohn
UDFA - Antwan Burton

Inside Linebacker: This is where it starts getting tricky, here is where you want to draft the high football IQ guys to be play callers in the middle of the defense. You can find them anywhere and take them when BPA, but this argues for a "reach" to make sure you land the player(s) you want. Gocong, Hoyte, Greenway, and McGarigle would seem to be the guys who would fit that bill the best. Greenway's body type projects to a role player for BB, which isn't bad, but isn't BPA in round 1 either. The next player more likely to come off the board is Gocong, he's projected as high as the 3rd round by some draftniks. The challenge here is switching him back to LB in the NFL, quite a change from Carpenteria High School. Tough call, but I think Pees, Bruschi, and Co. can bring him along just fine, target him with a 3rd round pick. Hoyte has the size advantage over McGarigle, so he would be the next target in the 4th. Then McGarigle. After that it is a crap shoot.
1st day - Chris Gocong, Mike Kudla, Chad Greenway
2nd day - Andrew Schable, Adam Roberts, Tim McGarigle, Oliver Hoyte, Tim Dobbins, Kai Parham
UDFA - Shomari Earls, Fredricc Brock

Outside Linebacker: The author's theory advocates taking DE/OLB anytime, but best value is in the first round decending each subsequent round, so if we want elite or superior talent you start early. Again, this is a BPA situation, if the choice at #21 is Carpenter or OT Winston, Winston is the BPA. Lawson trumps him were he available. The value is reportedly in the 1st day, after that a crap shoot, but you can have fun with it.
1st day - Manny Lawson, Darryl Tapp, Bobby Carpenter, Mark Anderson, Elvis Dumervil, Parys Haralson
2nd day - James Wyche, Jeremy Mincey, Jason Hatcher, Ryan Neill, Copeland Bryan, Daniel Federkiel, John Chick, Brandon Guillory, Ryan Lacasse, Brent Hawkins, John Syptak, David Tollefson, Clayton Farrell, Garrett McIntyre, Charlton Keith.
UDFA - Derrick Ming

Cornerback: An elite CB would be a 1st round target, but I'll settle for dependable which can be found in rounds 2-4 Warfield, Samuel, Hobbs, Poteat all fall in that range if I remember right. More of the same as BPA is okay.
1st day - Ashton Youboty, Richard Marshall, Jonathan Joseph, Gerrick McPhearson, David Pittman, Charles Gordon, Rolando Humphrey, Marcus Hudson, Jarrett Bush, Alton "Dee" McCann
2nd day - Josh Lay, John Eubanks, Willie Smith, Antonio Malone, Travis Johnson, Javon Johnson, Kevin Stanley, T.J Rushing, Marcus King, Willie Andrews, Cortland Finnegan, Trestin George, Dennis Mitchell
UDFA - Gabriel Fulbright, Justin Phinisee, Tramon Williams, Kevin Dockery, Ryan Redd, Drew Coleman, Theo Baines, Alex Teems, LaMarcus Hicks, Quincy Butler, James Johnson, Dion Byrum, Aaron Gipson, Blake Saunders, Stephen Cason, Chris Williams, Clint Kent, David Jiles, Etienne Boulay, Cletis Gordon, Michael Ford, Quinton Teal, Kwesi Williams, Allante Harrison, Corey-Khalil Harden, Brad Brachear, Terrance Wright, Francis Brown

Safety: Anytime is cool, though most starters come from rounds 2-5. Keith Ellison, Travis Williams, Freddie Keiaho, Kevin Schimmelmann, Brian Iwuh, Dwayne Slay, Jahmile Addae, Dawan Landry, Anthony Smith, Omowale Dada, Donte Whitner, Antoine Bethea

-----

Offensive Guard: The author advocates grabbing a bunch of 6-UDFA players and letting them fight it out in camp and you'll come up with starting quality Guards. A road grader can be found in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
1st day - Charles Spencer, Davin Joseph
2nd day - Rob Sims, Kevin Boothe, Jason Spitz, Will Montgomery
UDFA - Matt Lentz, Adam Stenavich, Jason Palermo, Will Allen

Center: The author says don't waste a pick in the 1st round, Mangold isn't as valuable as an elite DT/LT/etc. Good Centers can be found anytime after that. Ryan Cook, Todd Londot, Chris McNeil, Mike Degory, Jasper Harvey

Offensive Tackle: An elite LT is a 1st round pick, superior ones can be found in the 2nd, maybe the 3rd. My target on the shopping list isn't elite, superior will do to be a Reserve Swing Tackle. Winston and Colledge fit that bill, they need to develop, but they have the talent to be LTs in the NFL. Whitworth is a RT, who can play LT with help from the TE or RB; Whimper is a Practice Squad project with the physical tools to develop into a superior OT. In the second day, Leffew, Toledo, Levey, and Hall have the potential to be developed. Clarey, Butler, and Collier are G/RT projects.
1st day - Eric Winston, Daryn Colledge, Guy Whimper, Andrew Whitworth
2nd day - Willie Hall, Joe Toledo, Jeromey Clary, Jabari Levey, Brad Butler, Travis Leffew, Richard Collier

Quarterback: Elite QBs are 1st round targets, but an elite QB would be someone who is pro-ready like Leinart, Young and Cutler need development by my lights, it would seem they are over-priced. BB seems to have taken the approach of identifying players with the tools and taking them late to develop behind his starter. We have an interesting prospect playing in NFLE and anyone else we take is most likely camp fodder, but should have the tools BB likes, just to see if he gets lucky again. Kent Smith, John O'Neil, Jeff Rowe, Trent Edwards, Charlie Whitehurst, Josh Padrick, Quinton Porter, Nick Noce, Chris Bramell, Paul Pinegar, Jeff Mroz

Kicker: The model says take them anytime at BPA, oddly enough, kicker is rarely BPA. Target whomever survives to UDFA status. Jeff Glas, Stephen Gostkowski, Connor Hughes, Chris McMurtray, Taylor Begley, Adam Moss, Josh Huston, Jaret Johnson

Tight End: Elite TEs are 1st round targets, but then you can get a decent TE anytime. NE wants a 3rd TE, BPA rules again.
1st day - Joe Klopfenstein, Leonard Pope, Marcedes Lewis, Tony Scheffler
2nd day - Quinn Sypniewsk, Tim Day, Jeff King, Cooper Wallace, David Thomas, Greg Estandia, David Thomas
UDFA - Bob Docherty, Ryan Hamby, Tyler Ecker, Matt Henshaw, David Feliciano, Brando Twito, Zach Alcorn

Wide Receiver: A #2 WR can be taken anytime, again BPA rules. Mike Hass, Brandon Marshall, Maurice Stoval, Jason Avant, Greg Jennings, David Anderson, Jeff Webb, Adam Jennings, Willie Reid, Richie Ross, Maurice Avery, Chris Denney

Runningback: Elite RBs are 1st round picks in the author's model, but you can get a good RB in rounds 2-4, after that it gets very skinny, although there is a surge in round 6 for some reason. This model should make the De'Angelo Williams camp happy. Still, my board is set up with the incumbents expected to retain their jobs. Bring in 6th round or later experiments to play with. Terrence Whitehead, P.J. Daniel, P.J. Pope, Leon Washington, Taurean Henderson, Damien Rhodes

Fullback: Again, a take them anytime in any round and you'll find quality position. These guys are late round flyers. Garret Mills, David Kirtman
So now I apply my shopping list...

My shopping list
Position..............Purpose.......................................Strategy........Tactics
OT - someone to push Britt for the swing tackle job. _ Rd 1-3 _____ Rd 1-3
OC/OG - Reserve/Practice Squad/2007 starter _____ Rd 2-UDFA ___ 2nd day
CB - Nickelback/PR/KR/Practice Squad _____________ Rd 2-4 _____ BPA
RB - Practice Squad/PR/KR ______________________ Rd 2-4, 6 ___ Drew 1st day, camp fodder anytime.
LB - 2-3 DE/OLB for Special Teams and 3-4 development 1-UDFA __ *
STs - PR/KR, LB/SS ____________________________ Rd 1-UDFA __ BPA
WR - possession receiver to complement Branch, PR/KR Rd 1-UDFA _ **

* OLB - Elite = Lawson 1st round, Value Group 1: Anderson, Tapp, Kudla, Haralson; Value Group 2: Dumervil, Chick, LaCasse, Mincey
* ILB - Football IQ = Special Talent - Gocong, Value Group: Hoyte, McGarigle
* Warm bodies = anyone on the board

** #2 WR - Best fit = Hass, Value Group 1: Willie Reid, Greg Jennings, Maurice Stoval, Jason Avant; Value Group 2: David Anderson, Richie Ross, Chris Deney, Adam Jennings, Jeff Webb
 
Box_O_Rocks said:
Interesting, I concur with patchick's critique, but thought I'd apply it to my Master Board and shopping list....

So now I apply my shopping list...

My shopping list
Position..............Purpose.......................................Strategy........Tactics
OT - someone to push Britt for the swing tackle job. _ Rd 1-3 _____ Rd 1-3
OC/OG - Reserve/Practice Squad/2007 starter _____ Rd 2-UDFA ___ 2nd day
CB - Nickelback/PR/KR/Practice Squad _____________ Rd 2-4 _____ BPA
RB - Practice Squad/PR/KR ______________________ Rd 2-4, 6 ___ Drew 1st day, camp fodder anytime.
LB - 2-3 DE/OLB for Special Teams and 3-4 development 1-UDFA __ *
STs - PR/KR, LB/SS ____________________________ Rd 1-UDFA __ BPA
WR - possession receiver to complement Branch, PR/KR Rd 1-UDFA _ **

* OLB - Elite = Lawson 1st round, Value Group 1: Anderson, Tapp, Kudla, Haralson; Value Group 2: Dumervil, Chick, LaCasse, Mincey
* ILB - Football IQ = Special Talent - Gocong, Value Group: Hoyte, McGarigle
* Warm bodies = anyone on the board

** #2 WR - Best fit = Hass, Value Group 1: Willie Reid, Greg Jennings, Maurice Stoval, Jason Avant; Value Group 2: David Anderson, Richie Ross, Chris Deney, Adam Jennings, Jeff Webb

Very, very nice. (By the way, I did feel bad turning my back on good old Rolando Humphrey, but I had to make room for David Dixon on my draft list somehow.)
 
Poor Rolando, thrown over for a LB, sigh. Trying to take this a step further, the tactical application would look something like this...

21: Lawson, then BPA with 1. OT, 2a. TE, b. CB, c. RB __ WR would also go here if I thought there was a WR worth a 1st, and even though I don't value RB as a 1st round value, a player like Williams or Maroney would be BPA over my second round list.

52: Hass, then Drew, then BPA with 1. OLB 1, 2. OT, 3. TE, 4. CB, 5. WR VG 1

75: Gocong, then BPA with 1. WR VG 1, 2. DL, 3. OLB VG 1

86: BPA 1. WR VG 1, 2. DL, 3. OLB VG 1

106: BPA 1. ILB VG, 2. OLB VG 2, 3. CB, 4. OC/OG, 5. LB to SS Value Group (Alston, Iwuh, Ellison, Schimmelman, Keiaho)

118: BPA 1. OLB VG 2, 2. CB, 3. DL, 4. OC/OG, 5. LB to SS VG

136: BPA 1. WR VG 2, 2. OLB VG 2, 3. CB, 4. OC/OG, 5. LB to SS VG

191: BPA 1. RB Value Group (Whitehead, Daniels, Pope, Henderson, Rhodes), 2. H-back Value Group (Mills, King)

205/206: Federkiel, Special Teams, BPA

229: Special Teams, BPA
 
patchick said:
That's a nifty article, but it seems to me half of it's missing. It's not enough to ask when the starters at each position were drafted; you also have to ask how often each position is chosen in each round, and their rates of success. That's a little garbled, but...

Suppose 50% of all QBs drafted were drafted in round 1, but that draft round had no correlation at all to QB success. His analysis would still conclude that it's critical to take a QB in the 1st.

Basically, there's a significant element of self-fulfilling prophesy at work. Positions like QB and DT are considered high value, so a lot of them are taken high in the draft, so a lot of starters at those positions come from high in the draft, so we conclude the positions are high value.

I agree. It seems to punish centers (I've switched my official preference to Mangold in the first). Because 0-1 are drafted there a year, it seems that it's a waste to draft one in the first, because the majority of starters weren't drafted in the first.

The other thing is that you have to go into the draft with a shopping list of positions to fill, and I'm not sure how often that happens, especially with good teams.
 
Last edited:
Box_O_Rocks said:
Poor Rolando, thrown over for a LB, sigh. Trying to take this a step further, the tactical application would look something like this...

21: Lawson, then BPA with 1. OT, 2a. TE, b. CB, c. RB __ WR would also go here if I thought there was a WR worth a 1st, and even though I don't value RB as a 1st round value, a player like Williams or Maroney would be BPA over my second round list.

52: Hass, then Drew, then BPA with 1. OLB 1, 2. OT, 3. TE, 4. CB, 5. WR VG 1

75: Gocong, then BPA with 1. WR VG 1, 2. DL, 3. OLB VG 1

86: BPA 1. WR VG 1, 2. DL, 3. OLB VG 1

106: BPA 1. ILB VG, 2. OLB VG 2, 3. CB, 4. OC/OG, 5. LB to SS Value Group (Alston, Iwuh, Ellison, Schimmelman, Keiaho)

118: BPA 1. OLB VG 2, 2. CB, 3. DL, 4. OC/OG, 5. LB to SS VG

136: BPA 1. WR VG 2, 2. OLB VG 2, 3. CB, 4. OC/OG, 5. LB to SS VG

191: BPA 1. RB Value Group (Whitehead, Daniels, Pope, Henderson, Rhodes), 2. H-back Value Group (Mills, King)

205/206: Federkiel, Special Teams, BPA

229: Special Teams, BPA


Well, B_O_R, I've printed out this entire thread. You finally put it all together for me. Thank you. I also e-mailed it to BB and Pioli so they could take it easy the rest of the week, too.

I would say in the first round though I'm leaning towards Mangold because it makes the least and most sense.
 
Clonamery said:
Well, B_O_R, I've printed out this entire thread. You finally put it all together for me. Thank you. I also e-mailed it to BB and Pioli so they could take it easy the rest of the week, too.

I would say in the first round though I'm leaning towards Mangold because it makes the least and most sense.
I'm with you on the least sense scenerio! Still, Pat Kirwin predicts we'd have to move into the top 10 to have a shot at him now...

I'm sure BB/SP were stunned to see their secret plans published here, but they shouldn't write each other notes on McDonalds' wrappers when I'm dumpster diving. Not that taking in this assignment didn't help fill a few hours of the day...
 
Sweet, I'm not past dumpster diving either.....fun for all ages.

Dryheat's research/list is a must too.

Mangold IS hot but that too may be smokescreen.
 
:singing: Smoke gets in your eyes...:singing:

I actually expect that Lawson will be gone and they will be able to find a trading partner for a someone who is dropping, most likely a RB. I can see BB taking 10+ players out of the draft if the trades fall right. The LB corps has thinned down quite a bit with Willie and Chatham moving on, this is a good draft to grab 4-5 guys who can compete with each other for a roster slot or Practice Squad seat.
 
dryheat44 said:
I agree. It seems to punish centers (I've switched my official preference to Mangold in the first). Because 0-1 are drafted there a year, it seems that it's a waste to draft one in the first, because the majority of starters weren't drafted in the first.

I think center is a big overlooked story in this draft and Mangold will be one of the big surprises...he might not even make it to #21. Looking at a lot of "team needs" charts like this, you'd think the center position didn't exist:
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/teamneeds.html
Doesn't anybody remember the LeCharles Bentley sweepstakes? Isn't there a big hole in the middle for Philadelphia, N.Y. Jets, Pittsburgh, New Orleans? And the position is extremely thin in this draft.

A guy a like for the Patriots is Chris Chester of Oklahoma. He's the Guy Whimper/Joe Toledo of middle linemen -- a converted tight end who moves well and can play both guard and center. Not polished enough for 2006, but a year learning under Dante could set him up well as Koppen's successor.
 
patchick said:
I think center is a big overlooked story in this draft and Mangold will be one of the big surprises...he might not even make it to #21. Looking at a lot of "team needs" charts like this, you'd think the center position didn't exist:
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/teamneeds.html
Doesn't anybody remember the LeCharles Bentley sweepstakes? Isn't there a big hole in the middle for Philadelphia, N.Y. Jets, Pittsburgh, New Orleans? And the position is extremely thin in this draft.

A guy a like for the Patriots is Chris Chester of Oklahoma. He's the Guy Whimper/Joe Toledo of middle linemen -- a converted tight end who moves well and can play both guard and center. Not polished enough for 2006, but a year learning under Dante could set him up well as Koppen's successor.
I still like Montgomery at 118 or 136 with fallback players Ross and McNeil. Montgomery looked very good in the pulling drills and would do a good job getting out to the LBs. Todd Londot did a good job in the Hula Bowl, as did Jason Palermo you could expect them both to be available as UDFAs. Mangold is the elite player, but I believe the guys I've just named would get the job done just fine and let you do more with #21, even if it is a reach into the second round for a Klopfenstein or Colledge or Marshall - we don't need an upgrade at OC/OG, just competition and Practice Squad eligible depth. Do any of your subscription sites have old profiles on Nick Steitz to see if he has any Center experience? I really like his mobility in NFLE.
 
Box_O_Rocks said:
Do any of your subscription sites have old profiles on Nick Steitz to see if he has any Center experience? I really like his mobility in NFLE.

As far as I can tell Steitz is a pure guard, alas. And I don't really think Mangold makes sense for the Patriots. But suppose Kirwan's on to something, and the Eagles really covet him. #14 really is too high for a center...#21 sounds more reasonable. Meanwhile #21 is likely too late for Manny Lawson, with #14 just about right. That trade wouldn't surprise me one bit.
 
patchick said:
As far as I can tell Steitz is a pure guard, alas. And I don't really think Mangold makes sense for the Patriots. But suppose Kirwan's on to something, and the Eagles really covet him. #14 really is too high for a center...#21 sounds more reasonable. Meanwhile #21 is likely too late for Manny Lawson, with #14 just about right. That trade wouldn't surprise me one bit.

Hmmm. Certainly Lawson or Wimbley would be there. (I have Lawson going #12 in my latest projection, Wimbley #16). The move from 21 to 14, according to Hoyle, costs 300 points, or the number 60 pick. #75 and #106, which we actually own, gets us to 297. Close enough. Wouldn't shock me at all, but I don't think we'll be trading up any higher than 17, just from a cost perspective. If Belichick trades a 3 and a 4 in this draft to move up seven spots, we know how he feels about the guy he takes.
 
patchick said:
As far as I can tell Steitz is a pure guard, alas. And I don't really think Mangold makes sense for the Patriots. But suppose Kirwan's on to something, and the Eagles really covet him. #14 really is too high for a center...#21 sounds more reasonable. Meanwhile #21 is likely too late for Manny Lawson, with #14 just about right. That trade wouldn't surprise me one bit.
I can see that trade or #13 with Baltimore for a shot at Lawson, then again with the chance of Bush dropping out of first, things could get really lively and someone like Ngata could drop that far. Too much to hope that Hawk does!
 
This is a very interesting article and I'd expect some of its elements wind up working their way into how a scientifically created "weighting/ranking" of players in the draft winds up being created

First of all I love the authors for firmly debunking the "take the best player available" hypothesis... of course you don't solely base your draft on need, but they effectively illustrate that there is plenty of value to be found at some positions later in the draft and less so for other positions.

So given a choice of the two or more "best players available" in the first round, if you need a QB, WR1, or RB the statistics suggest that its less likely you will find a starter in the later rounds... in fact they are off the charts suggesting that the only way to get those guys out of the draft is likely as first round choices

WR2 likewise finds good value in the first two rounds - but then drops down very low

So if you have two guys who are considered close as the "best player available" early in the draft and one is a WR and one an LB (a position with value players to be found throughout the draft) its a hands down no-brainer - pick the WR...

that is the chances of finding a starting caliber WR late in the draft is relatively low while the chances of finding a starting caliber LB later inthe draft is relatively high.

You maximize your chances of finding starting caliber players in each round by factoring these statistics into your draft strategy
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf’s Pre-Draft Press Conference 4/18/24
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/18: News and Notes
Wednesday Patriots Notebook 4/17: News and Notes
Tuesday Patriots Notebook 4/16: News and Notes
Monday Patriots Notebook 4/15: News and Notes
Patriots News 4-14, Mock Draft 3.0, Gilmore, Law Rally For Bill 
Potential Patriot: Boston Globe’s Price Talks to Georgia WR McConkey
Friday Patriots Notebook 4/12: News and Notes
Not a First Round Pick? Hoge Doubles Down on Maye
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/11: News and Notes
Back
Top