Welcome to PatsFans.com

Great Drafting Strategy/Theory Article

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by dryheat44, Apr 24, 2006.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2004
    Messages:
    6,369
    Likes Received:
    33
    Ratings:
    +78 / 2 / -0

    #75 Jersey

  2. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    11,819
    Likes Received:
    436
    Ratings:
    +1,197 / 9 / -2

    #11 Jersey

    That's a nifty article, but it seems to me half of it's missing. It's not enough to ask when the starters at each position were drafted; you also have to ask how often each position is chosen in each round, and their rates of success. That's a little garbled, but...

    Suppose 50% of all QBs drafted were drafted in round 1, but that draft round had no correlation at all to QB success. His analysis would still conclude that it's critical to take a QB in the 1st.

    Basically, there's a significant element of self-fulfilling prophesy at work. Positions like QB and DT are considered high value, so a lot of them are taken high in the draft, so a lot of starters at those positions come from high in the draft, so we conclude the positions are high value.
     
  3. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    Interesting, I concur with patchick's critique, but thought I'd apply it to my Master Board and shopping list....

    So now I apply my shopping list...

    My shopping list
    Position..............Purpose.......................................Strategy........Tactics
    OT - someone to push Britt for the swing tackle job. _ Rd 1-3 _____ Rd 1-3
    OC/OG - Reserve/Practice Squad/2007 starter _____ Rd 2-UDFA ___ 2nd day
    CB - Nickelback/PR/KR/Practice Squad _____________ Rd 2-4 _____ BPA
    RB - Practice Squad/PR/KR ______________________ Rd 2-4, 6 ___ Drew 1st day, camp fodder anytime.
    LB - 2-3 DE/OLB for Special Teams and 3-4 development 1-UDFA __ *
    STs - PR/KR, LB/SS ____________________________ Rd 1-UDFA __ BPA
    WR - possession receiver to complement Branch, PR/KR Rd 1-UDFA _ **

    * OLB - Elite = Lawson 1st round, Value Group 1: Anderson, Tapp, Kudla, Haralson; Value Group 2: Dumervil, Chick, LaCasse, Mincey
    * ILB - Football IQ = Special Talent - Gocong, Value Group: Hoyte, McGarigle
    * Warm bodies = anyone on the board

    ** #2 WR - Best fit = Hass, Value Group 1: Willie Reid, Greg Jennings, Maurice Stoval, Jason Avant; Value Group 2: David Anderson, Richie Ross, Chris Deney, Adam Jennings, Jeff Webb
     
  4. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    11,819
    Likes Received:
    436
    Ratings:
    +1,197 / 9 / -2

    #11 Jersey

    Very, very nice. (By the way, I did feel bad turning my back on good old Rolando Humphrey, but I had to make room for David Dixon on my draft list somehow.)
     
  5. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    Poor Rolando, thrown over for a LB, sigh. Trying to take this a step further, the tactical application would look something like this...

    21: Lawson, then BPA with 1. OT, 2a. TE, b. CB, c. RB __ WR would also go here if I thought there was a WR worth a 1st, and even though I don't value RB as a 1st round value, a player like Williams or Maroney would be BPA over my second round list.

    52: Hass, then Drew, then BPA with 1. OLB 1, 2. OT, 3. TE, 4. CB, 5. WR VG 1

    75: Gocong, then BPA with 1. WR VG 1, 2. DL, 3. OLB VG 1

    86: BPA 1. WR VG 1, 2. DL, 3. OLB VG 1

    106: BPA 1. ILB VG, 2. OLB VG 2, 3. CB, 4. OC/OG, 5. LB to SS Value Group (Alston, Iwuh, Ellison, Schimmelman, Keiaho)

    118: BPA 1. OLB VG 2, 2. CB, 3. DL, 4. OC/OG, 5. LB to SS VG

    136: BPA 1. WR VG 2, 2. OLB VG 2, 3. CB, 4. OC/OG, 5. LB to SS VG

    191: BPA 1. RB Value Group (Whitehead, Daniels, Pope, Henderson, Rhodes), 2. H-back Value Group (Mills, King)

    205/206: Federkiel, Special Teams, BPA

    229: Special Teams, BPA
     
  6. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2004
    Messages:
    6,369
    Likes Received:
    33
    Ratings:
    +78 / 2 / -0

    #75 Jersey

    I agree. It seems to punish centers (I've switched my official preference to Mangold in the first). Because 0-1 are drafted there a year, it seems that it's a waste to draft one in the first, because the majority of starters weren't drafted in the first.

    The other thing is that you have to go into the draft with a shopping list of positions to fill, and I'm not sure how often that happens, especially with good teams.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2006
  7. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    3,355
    Likes Received:
    42
    Ratings:
    +135 / 0 / -1


    Well, B_O_R, I've printed out this entire thread. You finally put it all together for me. Thank you. I also e-mailed it to BB and Pioli so they could take it easy the rest of the week, too.

    I would say in the first round though I'm leaning towards Mangold because it makes the least and most sense.
     
  8. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    I'm with you on the least sense scenerio! Still, Pat Kirwin predicts we'd have to move into the top 10 to have a shot at him now...

    I'm sure BB/SP were stunned to see their secret plans published here, but they shouldn't write each other notes on McDonalds' wrappers when I'm dumpster diving. Not that taking in this assignment didn't help fill a few hours of the day...
     
  9. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    3,355
    Likes Received:
    42
    Ratings:
    +135 / 0 / -1

    Sweet, I'm not past dumpster diving either.....fun for all ages.

    Dryheat's research/list is a must too.

    Mangold IS hot but that too may be smokescreen.
     
  10. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    :singing: Smoke gets in your eyes...:singing:

    I actually expect that Lawson will be gone and they will be able to find a trading partner for a someone who is dropping, most likely a RB. I can see BB taking 10+ players out of the draft if the trades fall right. The LB corps has thinned down quite a bit with Willie and Chatham moving on, this is a good draft to grab 4-5 guys who can compete with each other for a roster slot or Practice Squad seat.
     
  11. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    11,819
    Likes Received:
    436
    Ratings:
    +1,197 / 9 / -2

    #11 Jersey

    I think center is a big overlooked story in this draft and Mangold will be one of the big surprises...he might not even make it to #21. Looking at a lot of "team needs" charts like this, you'd think the center position didn't exist:
    http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/teamneeds.html
    Doesn't anybody remember the LeCharles Bentley sweepstakes? Isn't there a big hole in the middle for Philadelphia, N.Y. Jets, Pittsburgh, New Orleans? And the position is extremely thin in this draft.

    A guy a like for the Patriots is Chris Chester of Oklahoma. He's the Guy Whimper/Joe Toledo of middle linemen -- a converted tight end who moves well and can play both guard and center. Not polished enough for 2006, but a year learning under Dante could set him up well as Koppen's successor.
     
  12. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    I still like Montgomery at 118 or 136 with fallback players Ross and McNeil. Montgomery looked very good in the pulling drills and would do a good job getting out to the LBs. Todd Londot did a good job in the Hula Bowl, as did Jason Palermo you could expect them both to be available as UDFAs. Mangold is the elite player, but I believe the guys I've just named would get the job done just fine and let you do more with #21, even if it is a reach into the second round for a Klopfenstein or Colledge or Marshall - we don't need an upgrade at OC/OG, just competition and Practice Squad eligible depth. Do any of your subscription sites have old profiles on Nick Steitz to see if he has any Center experience? I really like his mobility in NFLE.
     
  13. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    11,819
    Likes Received:
    436
    Ratings:
    +1,197 / 9 / -2

    #11 Jersey

    As far as I can tell Steitz is a pure guard, alas. And I don't really think Mangold makes sense for the Patriots. But suppose Kirwan's on to something, and the Eagles really covet him. #14 really is too high for a center...#21 sounds more reasonable. Meanwhile #21 is likely too late for Manny Lawson, with #14 just about right. That trade wouldn't surprise me one bit.
     
  14. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2004
    Messages:
    6,369
    Likes Received:
    33
    Ratings:
    +78 / 2 / -0

    #75 Jersey

    Hmmm. Certainly Lawson or Wimbley would be there. (I have Lawson going #12 in my latest projection, Wimbley #16). The move from 21 to 14, according to Hoyle, costs 300 points, or the number 60 pick. #75 and #106, which we actually own, gets us to 297. Close enough. Wouldn't shock me at all, but I don't think we'll be trading up any higher than 17, just from a cost perspective. If Belichick trades a 3 and a 4 in this draft to move up seven spots, we know how he feels about the guy he takes.
     
  15. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    I can see that trade or #13 with Baltimore for a shot at Lawson, then again with the chance of Bush dropping out of first, things could get really lively and someone like Ngata could drop that far. Too much to hope that Hawk does!
     
  16. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2004
    Messages:
    9,934
    Likes Received:
    65
    Ratings:
    +147 / 2 / -3

    This is a very interesting article and I'd expect some of its elements wind up working their way into how a scientifically created "weighting/ranking" of players in the draft winds up being created

    First of all I love the authors for firmly debunking the "take the best player available" hypothesis... of course you don't solely base your draft on need, but they effectively illustrate that there is plenty of value to be found at some positions later in the draft and less so for other positions.

    So given a choice of the two or more "best players available" in the first round, if you need a QB, WR1, or RB the statistics suggest that its less likely you will find a starter in the later rounds... in fact they are off the charts suggesting that the only way to get those guys out of the draft is likely as first round choices

    WR2 likewise finds good value in the first two rounds - but then drops down very low

    So if you have two guys who are considered close as the "best player available" early in the draft and one is a WR and one an LB (a position with value players to be found throughout the draft) its a hands down no-brainer - pick the WR...

    that is the chances of finding a starting caliber WR late in the draft is relatively low while the chances of finding a starting caliber LB later inthe draft is relatively high.

    You maximize your chances of finding starting caliber players in each round by factoring these statistics into your draft strategy
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>