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Great convention for the GOP

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PonyExpress, Sep 6, 2008.

  1. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    McCain was tedious as usual but he just had to come across as dependable, genuine and not a war monger to make the sale. Palin did the heavy lifting, especially putting the spotlight on Obama's "community organizer" roots. IMO this was a hint at what the McCain team's negative strategy will be down the homestretch. An inquiry into Obama's "community organizing" role will bring his lifelong radical associations to the forefront.

    I expect by early next week McCain will have the lead. This will be very hard for Obama to overcome, especially given the Bradley effect, which, while diminished from Wilder's days, is still probably substantial- maybe 5%. I'm not sure massive democrat voter fraud will be able to compensate. Alot of people claim they are undecided or voting for Obama so as not to incur the outrage of their liberal friends, while still privately leaning toward McCain and Palin.

    For Obama to win he has to:

    1. lower Palin's favorability:

    This is becoming more difficult after his minions overplayed their hand, such as the muckrakers on this board. Most people won't believe bad things about her coming from sources that were demonstrably biased in the first few days after her announcement. My guess is Obama's team will decide her vulnerability lies in being a "religious extremist" and they will play this up. However, this invites contrasts with Obama's religion/religions, which will likely backfire unfavorably on him and J. Wright et.al.

    Biden could accomplish much by embarrassing her in a debate. That will be hard to do on a personal level, because Palin is much more likeable than Biden who often comes off as a bullying blowhard. So the debate moderators will have to trip Palin up with policy minutiae at the debate. I have little doubt this will occur, but I am not sure it will matter if she handles herself with grace and charm and doesn't become excessively flustered.


    2. Obama must impress in the debates. Obama must seem healthy, young and physycially and intellectually vigorous. The first few criteria will be easy for him. However, having listened to him frequently in his off the cuff statements, "intellectually vigorous" is not his strong suit. He tends to uhh and ahh and trip over his own words. It would be helpful if he could somehow get the questions beforehand, a possibility I am sure his campaign team will pursue.

    McCain's main weakness is his decrepit appearance, and obvious age. Those problems are exacerbated when he delivers set speeches, a skill he has never mastered- to be kind. OTOH, he is an energetic extemporaneous speaker, comfortable in his own skin and able to sense and play to his environment.

    3. Obama must fight off the attacks coming his way, which will be brutal.

    One thing libs don't seem to grasp, is that their dirty pool with Palin merely exposes their own candidate to similar treatment, and he is much more vulnerable to this kind of attack. Palin has character witnesses, a clear biography and an all-Ameircan persona. We are going to learn more and more about Obama's radical associations as the campaign unfolds, and he will be on the defensive. K. Kilpatrick, Dr Al Mansour, Rev Wright, Farrakhan, Ayres are not the "usual suspects" you want trotted out as your campaign heads into the home stretch, especially in the rust belt.

    I still feel Obama needs a game changer to win this election. McCain becoming ill in the next 2 months would help, highlighting Obama youth. Palin embarrassing herself at the debate is another. Biden "falling ill" and being replaced with Hillary is another possibility. Massive election fraud is another element that will help Obama, a strategy I am confident his campaign has been promoting given his ACORN roots.

    Barring those "gamechangers" I think McCain will win comfortably.
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  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    The biggest thing for me is that Palin and McCain both had more people watching than Obama. That doesn't mean they'll get more votes but I was worried that Obama had already won and the American people had tuned out the Republicans completely. Obviously that's not the case.

    Now that Palin has excited the base, McCain can campaign to the center which is where he's most comfortable.

    One thing McCain/Palin HAVE to do is not just talk about drilling and the price of gas but talk about the JOBS that massive drilling will create. Alternative energies are intriguing - and I want us to work on it - but drilling in ANWR (Palin will talk the old man into it), offshore plus coal, oil shale, etc, will create a lot of private sector jobs and McCain needs to explain this is a jobs issue in addition to a gas price issue.
  3. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    I think what we need to do is take away the voting rights of all the "Bubbas" in this country....then it would be a race!
  4. PatsFanInEaglesLand

    PatsFanInEaglesLand Rookie

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    #37 Jersey

    What about the "Niggas", do they still get to vote in your racist plan?
    Or is racism against whites ok with you?
  5. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    Palin mentioned "American energy and American workers". stop the wealth transfer over seas. Keep American dollars at home. Keep the jobs in America. Middle class tax cuts. Low energy prices is a middle class tax cut as well. Cut the wasteful, bloated overreaching, arrogant federal bureaucracy.

    I love the idea of the Repubs as the party of the middle class, the populist party, and showing the dems to be a party of eggheads and captive identity groups. Palin makes that possible, and that's the kind of party I feel most comfortable with.
  6. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Typical liberal reaction, censor and eliminate anything and anybody that doesn't agree with the goofy hateful left wing agenda, the Pelosi Gang want to do the exact same thing with "talk radio" as you suggest doing to Bubba.

    If they don't think liberal outlaw them, freedom is only for "liberals".....

    :bricks:
  7. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    She did - but I want them to say :

    "Drilling in ANWR will create X number of jobs"
    "Drilling offshore will create Y number of jobs"
    "Drilling oil shale will create Z number of jobs"

    Oil company jobs would be private sector and good paying jobs. It needs to be stated clearly, definitively and repeatedly.
  8. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Rookie

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    sad to see your posts. both are pretty offensive.
  9. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    This started out as a great thread by Pony and quickly went downhill - WAY downhill.
  10. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    Your class just keeps on shining there buddy.

    Well, lets see...no black American has ever had any choice but to vote for a white man. You and people like you refuse to understand bigotry is all about who has the power. Whites and certainly no bubba's have EVER experienced bigotry or oppression of any kind. How can they when they are part of the 80% of the caucasian race that has run this country from the beginning.

    Thankfully, it won't always be that way and will change over time as the white race continues to mix more & more with all the others. But that's gonna take time.

    Yes, it's acceptable to say Bubba but never acceptable to say the "N" word no matter how you spell it.
  11. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Dude, give it up; you've already ruined this thread.
  12. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    We just had a prominent US senator tell the country that there's a good chance the bubba vote will keep obama from becoming president. Bubba is not a racist term. So tell me how my comment is offensive after what the good senator said the other day?
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2008
  13. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Rookie

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    IMO both those conventions were a draw. each tried to succeed in trying sell ice to an eskimo. ask a democrat and they'll think their convention was awesome. ask a republican and they'll answer theirs was. it was all show from palin flying in her daughters boyfriend, packing denver with thousands of people, have bill endorse obama tho he can't stand him, hearing about mccain's pow experience dozens of times. it's all show.

    the debates will be a truer indication. let's see how they react under pressure in a debate where they can't read from a telepromter.

    the second indicator on who the race will favor is how will the economy hold in these next few months, how will oil prices hold going into winter, and will the Iran situation maintain or will there an escalation.

    we don't know anything right now and if you're trying to convince yourself you're a fool.

    it's like trying to say you know what kind of team the pats are gonna be after week 1.
  14. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Rookie

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    so if a senator does it then it's alright. pick your heroes better.

    you should know better. cmon i expect better class form a frequent poster.
  15. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    As much as I hate being told to shut up, it good to see you & Biggles taking the high road.
  16. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Rookie

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    That was what i thought of the two days i watched.

    The lady gave a really good speech, full of lies. But well delivered. And entertaining too. She had some good punchlines too.

    But the old dude on the next night was boring as watching grass grow.
  17. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Republican convention was good, but it was too much red meat and appears the polls are showing that McCain/Palin did not erase all of Obama's bounce.

    I thought the Democratic convention looked better -- nicer sets, more polished videos, etc. And I thought the Democrats positioned themselves better -- sensible, not too many attacks, thoughtful, presented a number of specifics (especially Obama in his speech when he talked about his tax plan).

    Palin's speech helped raise more money for Obama than it did for McCain, so that was good.

    But, the Republicans did succeed in rallying their base and generating excitement about the campaign. That should serve them well.

    I'll be interested in seeing how Obama handles the race card, not just posts like FTW's and patsfan13 that seem to point out every Muslim or other questionable character that Obama had any contact with, but also racist ads like this one from a Republican connected 527:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SODIFZXIPA

    I think it also still remains to be seen just how potent a force Palin really is. Now that the convention is over, the gloss is removed and we'll see how well she stands up to the challenges ahead and whether her appeal is lasting.

    I do agree the debates will be critical. There will be more pressure on McCain and Biden, then Obama and Palin, I think, because McCain and Biden, whether you like them or not, are viewed as more seasoned and experienced. That said, McCain is a good debater. Obama is not a bad debater but he tends to choose his words a little too carefully, which makes him appears less spontaneous.

    All said, the Democrats should still have the upper hand unless Cheney and Bush can start a war with Russia or Iran.
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2008
  18. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Is it acceptable to say "White Mother F-cker"
  19. PatriotsReign

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    I don't know, I'm not white.
  20. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    I completely understand why you would say the convention was "good" but not "great". Whenever the nominee is a sub-par orator and looks decrepit, the upside is limited.

    However... look at it from this perspective. The hurricane could have devastated the convention coverage, and the tone and mood of the convention [more importantly could have hurt many good people in the gulf]. But it was not the disaster anticipated. it provided an excuse to disinvite Bush and Cheney, and revise the speaking schedule of Giuliani, et.al.

    Palin gave a speech even her harshest critics conceed was highly effective rhetoric to a huge audience. She has emerged as a very popular figure according to polls. McCain was able to broadcast his "I'm a hero and a momma's boy" video to 40+ million people, piggybacking on the football game. This mitigated the soporific speech he delivered. Boring and safe can help McCain, if he can successfully portray Obama as a reckless vainglorious figure.

    The base was energized to an extent not seen since 1994. The republican brand was recrafted as populist and reformist. The republican ground team will now be disciplined and inspired...

    The GOP can now match the Obama money machine, according to press releases.

    After being down 8-9 points early in the week they are now tied [CBS] down by 1 [Rasmussen] down by 2 [gallup] before the full effects of the bounce have been measured, which should be early to mid next week.

    Considering the disaster, natural and political, which threatened the party last weekend, the GOP came out better than any of its supporters could have hoped.

    As for the Dem convention, it was very well organized; The Clintons did Obama enormous help, but that help may be fleeting if they don't continue to defend him. In a sense, The Clintons gave Obama his "legitimacy" last week to independent voters. Without them staying visible and helping him, that impression will begin to fade. I also thought Obama's speech was a touch too aggressive for a nominee, and did not appeal to independents the way McCain's more conciliatory acceptance did. This was just a question of tactics and IMO Obama erred slightly. I think his clear partisanship cut a few points off his bounce and did not put the nail in McCain's coffin, as a more tactful speech might have done.
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2008

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