Great Article on the The Bay Trade

[Wildo7]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7889

Red Sox trade Manny Ramirez, Craig Hansen, Brandon Moss, and pay Ramirez's remaining 2008 salary ($7 million) and receive Jason Bay.

I like this trade for the Sox even if you ignore everything but the baseball. They trade two months of Ramirez, his options, and two prospects who aren't in their system's top eight or so. They get back Bay, who they'll have under contract for next season at a cost of $9 million.

The more I thought about this deal, the more I focused in on the Ramirez-for-Bay aspect. Hansen is a failed #1 prospect who in a supposed revival year has 25 strikeouts and 23 walks in the majors. He was never going to get an extended opportunity with the Red Sox. Moss is a fourth outfielder on a good team or a starter on a bad one, someone who'll hit .270 and be average in every other aspect of the game. Xavier Nady with less power and a better glove. Losing those two guys doesn't impact the Sox at all, and the cash is a wash—they'd probably have had to spend $7 million above the cost of Bay to fill a lineup hole next season anyway.

No, the key thing here is one small fact that gets lost in the names and the cities and the reputations: the Red Sox may have landed the best player in the deal. Outside of a 2007 season in which he played through a bad knee injury—arguably akin to Jason Kendall playing through injuries while with the Pirates and ruining his career earlier this decade—Bay has been one of the most productive outfielders in baseball. Since 2003, he's been inferior to Ramirez, but not by nearly as much as you might expect.

 

[Foley]

Bay is actually under control for 7.5M next year, but thats not really important.

Overall I agree with the article. 1 year and 2 months of Jason Bay is better than 2 months of Manny. Plus, it clears up a lot of payroll allowing them to peruse free agents in the offseason, without having to fill a huge hole in the lineup. This trade may hurt them a bit this year, but it significantly improves them in 2009.

As far as going up Moss and Hansen, obviously trading guys in their early 20's is never something you're thrilled to see happen, but anyone who expected Moss or Hansen to ever play a big role on the Red Sox was kidding themselves.

 

[Wildo7]

If you actually look at all the context around this trade, the Sox won big time, even if Bay is mediocre, which he is most certainly not.

Tonight was an absolutely perfect microcosm of Manny Ramirez v. Jason Bay:

Jason Bay makes a nice defensive play in left field and goes 1-3, getting on base 4 times. He scores the only 2 Red Sox Runs after legging out an extra innings triple that leads to the game winning run.

Manny is 1-2 with a single and lightly jogs to an shot to left by CoJack, letting him leg out a triple.

If Manny was playing for the Sox tonight, they do not win that game.

The Dodgers got the better hitter and the Red Sox got the better Baseball player.

 

[Canada's #1 Pats Fan]

If Manny was playing for the Sox tonight, they do not win that game.

The Dodgers got the better hitter and the Red Sox got the better Baseball player.

If Manny was playing tonight, there is no way he makes that defensive play in left. Not a chance.

 

[Foley]

The Dodgers got the better hitter and the Red Sox got the better Baseball player.

I do agree with this assessment -- Bay is clearly the better fielder, base runner, and teammate -- my only concern is that there is likely going to be a learning curve after moving from the NL to the AL. Both Drew and Lowell were much better in their second year than in their first year, so I would think the same would be the case for Bay.

Certainly thats not always the case, like with Cabrera in 2004, but I still wouldn't rule out an adjustment period. Hopefully moving from PNC Park to Fenway will have a bigger impact than moving from the NL to the AL, so none of that will be an issue.

 

[scout]

When I heard of the trade, I was stunned that the Sox included Hansen. Then I figured that the Sox didn't think he would ever pan out and that they have a better product in the system. I liked Hansen when he was first drafted and was pitching lights out, since then he's been a disapointment and his name has been included in a lot of trade rumors. If not this time, he'd be gone this winter. Bay will play hard and Manny is on implode watch.

 

[patriotspride]

When I heard of the trade, I was stunned that the Sox included Hansen. Then I figured that the Sox didn't think he would ever pan out and that they have a better product in the system. I liked Hansen when he was first drafted and was pitching lights out, since then he's been a disapointment and his name has been included in a lot of trade rumors. If not this time, he'd be gone this winter. Bay will play hard and Manny is on implode watch.

hansens contract is up after this year . if they want him they can try to sign him back.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Bay is actually under control for 7.5M next year, but thats not really important.

Overall I agree with the article. 1 year and 2 months of Jason Bay is better than 2 months of Manny. Plus, it clears up a lot of payroll allowing them to peruse free agents in the offseason, without having to fill a huge hole in the lineup. This trade may hurt them a bit this year, but it significantly improves them in 2009.

As far as going up Moss and Hansen, obviously trading guys in their early 20's is never something you're thrilled to see happen, but anyone who expected Moss or Hansen to ever play a big role on the Red Sox was kidding themselves.

The money that the Sox paid for Ramirez's salary this year is not important.

Bay's salary savings for next year is important only in the context that it gives them a lot of flexibility next year to sign another free agent bat to compliment Bay next year, take their time to decide if they want to extend Bay, hold with Bay and plan on using the $ savings for the 2010 season, use some of the $ savings for free agent bullpen or starting help, etc etc etc..

Money is an issue with the mangagement group, even if there is no salary cap - but this is a plus in that regard.

I'm not quite as casual about the "loss" of Hansen and Moss. They are prospects that had trade value - and we used them in getting rid of Ramirez.

I'd have preferred that Manny be a good boy and we use Hansen and Ramirez to trade for bullpen help THIS season - but there's not point crying over spilt milk.

Similarly they'd have come in handy as part of a potential trade in the offseason too. That's not to say the Sox won't be able to make a deal if they want someone - just that at some point some of the prospects you dip into for a trade are going to pan out into very good players - and there's no need to "waste" them.

Hopefully we won't look back at this trade and lament losing either of these guys - but I tend to think we won't.

 

[Foley]

I wasn't saying that his contract is unimportant. I as saying that the 1.5M difference between his real contract and the incorrect number the article had was unimportant. I completely agree the benefits of Bay's contract are a large reason why this was a good deal.

As far as Moss and Hansen, I'm not happy about losing them, but at this point they'd be lucky to make the top 20 among Red Sox prospects. Their value was minimal. The FO could have gotten Ron Mahay back for Moss, and they both could have been trade bait in the offseason, but I don't think that they could have brought back anything of real value. I don't considered their addition into the trade a waste, since the Sox got the best player in the deal (Manny's offense, at this stage in his career, is not enough to offset the superior contract, and superior abilities of Bay in every other facet of the game), so it makes sense that they had to give up the most.