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- Sep 13, 2004
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Pundit bashing is one of the most popular pastimes of NFL fans. We call them idiots, mock their predictions and then dance in glee when their forecasts fail to come true. I mean, we all knew the Dolphins weren't going to the Superbowl, right? What were those idiots thinking?
Of course, they have to do their thinking in public so they can get called on it later. What if somebody tracked all of our predictions? Would we fare any better?
Before the season a popular thread here asked for predictions of the surprise rise and fall teams of the year -- playoff teams that would collapse, and also-rans that would surge to power. So I kept track. I made a spreadsheet tallying all our predictions, and I just decided to check up on the results. Each team's rise/fall score is calculated by comparing this season's winning percentage to last years, then I summed up the votes in the rising and falling categories. And the result is...<drumroll>...
We're at flat chance. Our picks in each group are doing pretty much the same as last year. The top pick for a falling team was Pittsburgh (we're geniuses!), the top pick for a rising team was Arizona (we're idiots!)
Which is a good reminder that predicting the future is a tough job . And as they say, that's why they play the games. Just be glad you didn't make your prediction on national television.
Of course, they have to do their thinking in public so they can get called on it later. What if somebody tracked all of our predictions? Would we fare any better?
Before the season a popular thread here asked for predictions of the surprise rise and fall teams of the year -- playoff teams that would collapse, and also-rans that would surge to power. So I kept track. I made a spreadsheet tallying all our predictions, and I just decided to check up on the results. Each team's rise/fall score is calculated by comparing this season's winning percentage to last years, then I summed up the votes in the rising and falling categories. And the result is...<drumroll>...
We're at flat chance. Our picks in each group are doing pretty much the same as last year. The top pick for a falling team was Pittsburgh (we're geniuses!), the top pick for a rising team was Arizona (we're idiots!)
Which is a good reminder that predicting the future is a tough job . And as they say, that's why they play the games. Just be glad you didn't make your prediction on national television.