Good chance Bradford & Sanchez stay in school - Great news for Cassel trade value

[ScottieC]

Backup QB has been, in my mind, a question mark almost every season this decade. Flutie? Davey? Testaverde at 40? I have faith in the Pats decision to go with whomever they deem an acceptable backup QB, but it sure is nicer knowing they are a proven commodity.

I'm in the Minority here probably, but I don't think Cassel should be around next year. No matter what Brady's status is (other than him having to take the entire year off - which I don't see happening - that would be a 14-16 month recovery).

I think that we need to get as much as we can for Cassel (First and then another pick or player) and start Brady or option B if he is not avaiable unil later in the season (i.e. PUP). I have no idea what Option B is, but it's not Cassel.

However, I will agree that if Tom is out for all of 2009 - Then Cassel is our man.

 

[Lansdowne]

I thought Bradford said before the BCS game that he was declaring for the draft?

 

[BradyFTW!]

Believe what you want, it's a huge jump to the NFL and not being ready for it can destroy a telented QB. My opinion is your first argument is ridiculous. Absolutely horrible. Your argument that more talented QB start earlier in college sounds more plausible. Nothing you said convinces me that QB coming out early is a good idea.

The only argument that I can think of counter to that is that I think most QBs would get more value from coming into a Matt Cassel/Kevin O'Connel situation (I realize that neither of them came out early, but for argument's sake) than spending an extra year in college. Basically, being on a team behind a great QB, great OC, and great head coach. They can learn an absolute ton in that year.

That said, there are very very few situations like that in the NFL. It's more likely that they'd end up somewhere like Oakland, where young talent goes to die. If that's the case, then they'd better be as good as possible before they even get there, because all the talent in the world is still unlikely to save them.

I'm in the Minority here probably, but I don't think Cassel should be around next year. No matter what Brady's status is (other than him having to take the entire year off - which I don't see happening - that would be a 14-16 month recovery).

I think that we need to get as much as we can for Cassel (First and then another pick or player) and start Brady or option B if he is not avaiable unil later in the season (i.e. PUP). I have no idea what Option B is, but it's not Cassel.

However, I will agree that if Tom is out for all of 2009 - Then Cassel is our man.

That's what I'm thinking, as well. Even if plan B is Kevin O'Connell, I'd be okay with that if Belichick was okay with it. If he isn't, I'm sure he'll go grab a veteran backup.

 

[apple strudel]

I get it, man, I'm happy for you that you think your math skills are so spectacular. I understand - but I haven't heard a "cause" from you that replaces college experience as the most likely factor.

Jeez, no need to be so hostile. And my math skill could stand a lot of improvement - they are not so hot (there was a guy on the radio the other night who knew pi to 20,000 digits!).

And the cause is that teams can evaluate seniors better because there's more tape to watch. I think it's an evaluation problem rather than the other way around. The key is senior QBs drafted in the first round. If you look at senior QBs overall, most are not more successful in the NFL.

 

[ScottieC]

The only argument that I can think of counter to that is that I think most QBs would get more value from coming into a Matt Cassel/Kevin O'Connel situation (I realize that neither of them came out early, but for argument's sake) than spending an extra year in college. Basically, being on a team behind a great QB, great OC, and great head coach. They can learn an absolute ton in that year.

That said, there are very very few situations like that in the NFL. It's more likely that they'd end up somewhere like Oakland, where young talent goes to die. If that's the case, then they'd better be as good as possible before they even get there, because all the talent in the world is still unlikely to save them.



That's what I'm thinking, as well. Even if plan B is Kevin O'Connell, I'd be okay with that if Belichick was okay with it. If he isn't, I'm sure he'll go grab a veteran backup.

I can tell you this, if we Franchise Cassel (and then don't trade him) and Draft aother QB in rounds 1,2 or 3. I will be a nervous freaking wreck.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Jeez, no need to be so hostile. And my math skill could stand a lot of improvement - they are not so hot (there was a guy on the radio the other night who knew pi to 20,000 digits!).

And the cause is that teams can evaluate seniors better because there's more tape to watch. I think it's an evaluation problem rather than the other way around. The key is senior QBs drafted in the first round. If you look at senior QBs overall, most are not more successful in the NFL.

The second point can be pretty easily explained, IMO. Seniors are generally closer to reaching their true potential than underclassmen. So, if you're not a first round pick, then that means that, even when closer to your max potential, you're still not an elite prospect. With underclassmen, at least there's more conjecture involved, so if you're picked in the 2nd or 3rd round you're more likely to be an hit-or-miss candidate who hits.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I can tell you this, if we Franchise Cassel (and then don't trade him) and Draft aother QB in rounds 1,2 or 3. I will be a nervous freaking wreck.

If we franchise and don't trade Cassel period, I will be too, hahaha. If Belichick was going to trade Brady, I bet he'd go with Cassel, O'Connel, and a FA.

 

[apple strudel]

The second point can be pretty easily explained, IMO. Seniors are generally closer to reaching their true potential than underclassmen. So, if you're not a first round pick, then that means that, even when closer to your max potential, you're still not an elite prospect. With underclassmen, at least there's more conjecture involved, so if you're picked in the 2nd or 3rd round you're more likely to be an hit-or-miss candidate who hits.

That's exactly the point - seniors are easier to evaluate. It doesn't mean that staying for your senior year necessarily makes you better, though.

 

[ScottieC]

If we franchise and don't trade Cassel period, I will be too, hahaha. If Belichick was going to trade Brady, I bet he'd go with Cassel, O'Connel, and a FA.

I think if Bill tried to trade Brady, Kraft and Bill would have a "Talk" that you could measure on the Richter Scale.

I think the only 2 things that's are 100% certain in Foxboro are that 1. the Sun will rise in the AM and 2. Tom Brady will be a Patriot next season.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think if Bill tried to trade Brady, Kraft and Bill would have a "Talk" that you could measure on the Richter Scale.

I think the only 2 things that's are 100% certain in Foxboro are that 1. the Sun will rise in the AM and 2. Tom Brady will be a Patriot next season.

:agree::ditto:

 

[BelichickFan]

That's exactly the point - seniors are easier to evaluate. It doesn't mean that staying for your senior year necessarily makes you better, though.

First, I don't agree with you. The transition to the NFL both in terms of quality of opposition and usually not playing right away demand, IMO, the player be more ready coming out of college.

That said, the point is the same - whether the cause of the statistic is what I think it is or what you think it is, the end result is the same; QB drafted with less than 35 games started are statistically far less likely to be successful.

 

[apple strudel]

First, I don't agree with you. The transition to the NFL both in terms of quality of opposition and usually not playing right away demand, IMO, the player be more ready coming out of college.

Matt Cassel says hi.

That said, the point is the same - whether the cause of the statistic is what I think it is or what you think it is, the end result is the same; QB drafted with less than 35 games started are statistically far less likely to be successful.

No argument there. But that's not the interesting part, is it?

 

[Leave No Doubt]

I think if Bill tried to trade Brady, Kraft and Bill would have a "Talk" that you could measure on the Richter Scale.

I think the only 2 things that's are 100% certain in Foxboro are that 1. the Sun will rise in the AM and 2. Tom Brady will be a Patriot next season.

And that's your news for this evening. Goodnight everyone!

 

[ctpatsfan77]

First, I don't agree with you. The transition to the NFL both in terms of quality of opposition and usually not playing right away demand, IMO, the player be more ready coming out of college.

That said, the point is the same - whether the cause of the statistic is what I think it is or what you think it is, the end result is the same; QB drafted with less than 35 games started are statistically far less likely to be successful.

To be fair, that statement is QBs drafted in the first round with <35 starts.

In any case, I'll list the two groups, so you can be the judge (Edit--rearranged by decreasing # of starts):

35+: P. Rivers, B. Quinn, C. Palmer, D. McNabb, P. Manning, D. Culpepper, J. Cutler, C. McNown, M. Leinart, B. Roethlisberger, E. Manning, B. Leftwich, C. Pennington

<35: V. Young, R. Grossman, K. Boller, JP Losman, T. Couch, J. Harrington, D. Carr, D. Brees, R. Leaf, A. Rodgers, Alex Smith, M. Vick, Akili Smith

It would be interesting to compare these numbers to the same numbers for lower-round QBs.

 

[BelichickFan]

To be fair, that statement is QBs drafted in the first round with <35 starts.

Right, I left that out as I expect Bradford and Sanchez would both be first round picks and they're the subjects of this thread.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

So from what I'm hearing, there is a very good chance both Sanchez & Bradford might stay for their senior years. That will pretty much make Stafford the only round 1 caliber QB, which means you might have a lot more teams who want a QB willing to part with their first for a guy like Cassel.

Stay tuned ...

This is fabulous news,I hope you're right! MattyMan's value is what we want, and I keep hearing speculation on Pioli maybe wanting him for KC. BB and Pioli at the negotiating table could be fun to follow

 

[ctpatsfan77]

FESPN:

Source: Bradford expected to return

Quarterback Sam Bradford is expected to announce that he will return to Oklahoma next season, a source told ESPN. Bradford was expected to announce his decision at a 5:30 p.m. ET press conference Wednesday. Offensive tackle Trent Williams, who said Wednesday that he would return to the Sooners next season, said he believes Bradford will return.

Here draft pick, draft pick. Heeeeere draft pick, draft pick.

 

[BelichickFan]

The "talk" seems to be that Sanchez will come out.

 

[StyLeZ X]

:singing: someone is going to overpay us! hooray!

 

[apple strudel]

FESPN:

Source: Bradford expected to return


Here draft pick, draft pick. Heeeeere draft pick, draft pick.

Great news if true.