Gil Brandt just said on Sirius NFL

[Ochmed Jones]

As long as Brady stays healthy and has a god supporting staff around him, he should be fine.

However if there is something to all these right shoulder injuries, and he loses a few MPH on the fastball, then interceptions could become a problem.

 

[Deus Irae]

1.) The O.P. is paraphrasing so we don't have the precise language.

2.) Exceptions prove rules.

3.) People aren't required to toss out 500 disclaimers to every broad-based statistic when they're calling games.

4.) Not every running back falls apart at age 30, but I don't see people here getting up in arms when that one's brought up.



Relax people. It's just material for broadcasting.

 

[Miguel]

Manning at 34 this year really sucks, he's right.

Manning is 33 years old. It is amazing how many times this board gets a player's age wrong when NFL.Com provides most, if not all, players' DOBs.

Peyton Manning

 

[TruthSeeker]

Gil Brandt is still living in 1976. I don't take anything he says as gospel. There are plenty of examples of QBs age 33 or older disproving Brandt's theory.


- Rich Gannon had his best years after 33. In fact, his highest season completion percentage and lowest INTs per pass attempt of his career was when he was 37.
- John Elway never completed over 60% of his passes in a season until he turned 33 and he did it three season post age 33. He also threw the most INTs of his career when he was 25, his second most when he was 28, his third most when he was 29, and fourth most when he was 32. His lowest INTs rate for a season was 10. He had that few of numbers of INTs three times in his career (ages 33, 34, and 38).
- Marino's second and third highest season completion rates were at ages 34 and 33. He threw the third fewest INTs in a season at age 35.
- Fran Tarkenton only completed over 60% of his passes in a season five times in his career. All of them were when he was 33 or older. He had his lowest INT rare in a single season when he was 35 (tied for the season when he was 29)
- Joe Montana only had a single season completion rate over 70% once in his career (well twice if you count the season where he had a season ending injury in the first game of the season) and that was at age 33.
- Warren Moon had his highest completion percentage at age 36 and second highest at age 39.
- Vinny Testeverde had his highest completion percentage and lowest INT rate (for a season he played 14 or more games) at age 35.
- Last year Kurt Warner had his third highest completion percentage and second lowest INT rate as a full time starter at age 37.

Great post.

I like Gil, but he's clearly just wrong with this thought. Not unusual, though, for someone who shares his thoughts as a broadcaster all the time to be wrong on something that probably used to be pretty accurate 20-40 years ago.

 

[goheels22002]

1.) The O.P. is paraphrasing so we don't have the precise language.

2.) Exceptions prove rules.

3.) People aren't required to toss out 500 disclaimers to every broad-based statistic when they're calling games.

4.) Not every running back falls apart at age 30, but I don't see people here getting up in arms when that one's brought up.



Relax people. It's just material for broadcasting.

2 - Exceptions prove rules? Not when there are more exceptions than the rule. Not many QBs prone to INTs last until they are in their mid-30s as starters. The list of exceptions will soon include McNabb, Brady and Manning for certain and probably Carson Palmer and Drew Brees. Many of the young guns (Eli, Big Ben, Rivers, etc. have a lot to prove and a long way to go.) A bunch of guys are already washing out in their early 30s. I think Gil Brandt is just wrong about what he said.

 

[Deus Irae]

2 - Exceptions prove rules? Not when there are more exceptions than the rule. Not many QBs prone to INTs last until they are in their mid-30s as starters. The list of exceptions will soon include McNabb, Brady and Manning for certain and probably Carson Palmer and Drew Brees. Many of the young guns (Eli, Big Ben, Rivers, etc. have a lot to prove and a long way to go.) A bunch of guys are already washing out in their early 30s. I think Gil Brandt is just wrong about what he said.

There aren't more exceptions than the rule and, if guys are washing out even before they hit that magical age number, that should tell you all you need to know.

 

[goheels22002]

There aren't more exceptions than the rule and, if guys are washing out even before they hit that magical age number, that should tell you all you need to know.

Hi Deus Irae. You have chosen to defend Gil Brandt. Good luck. Name five guys past the age of 33 who fit his claim that should have been starting for their teams or were mentoring high draft picks before becoming backups or retiring. Rob7092 made a great point with his post that experienced QBs get better with age as Peyton Manning is proving and we hope TB does as well.

 

[Rob0729]

1.) The O.P. is paraphrasing so we don't have the precise language.

2.) Exceptions prove rules.

3.) People aren't required to toss out 500 disclaimers to every broad-based statistic when they're calling games.

4.) Not every running back falls apart at age 30, but I don't see people here getting up in arms when that one's brought up.



Relax people. It's just material for broadcasting.

I think it is pretty well established that with elite QBs, the rule disproves the exception that Brandt states as the rule. Maybe for middle of the road QBs, their completion percentages go down and their INT rates go up after 33, but that isn't the case with top tier QBs. It would make sense that many middle of the road QBs would experience this problem as they got older and not so much for top tier QBs. Middle of the road QBs are usually so because they have great physical skills, but aren't the best football minds when it comes to the position.

You look at most of the top QBs over history and what set them apart from the competition was the intangibles like being able to make presnap reads, quick releases, being able to check down receivers, and superior pocket presence. Those skills don't deteriorate over time nearly as fast as having a strong arm or quick feet. That is why you look at most of them over the last 20-30 years and they do not follow the trend that Brandt states.

You look at a guy like Bledsoe and it isn't surprising his career was over by his mid 30s (although he did have his second highest season completion rate at 33). They guy had a great arm, but wasn't exactly the best at the intangibles. His arm started to go and so did his play and it went fast.

It seems barring injuries that Brady will be like most elite QBs and buck the trend because, even though he does have great armstrength, what makes him a special QB is his head, not his arm. I can see him like an Elway or a Gannon and have some of his best years in his late 30s if he has the cast around him.

 

[goheels22002]

I agree Rob. That is what makes Brett Favre so fascinating. A top-tier gunslinger who's INTs kill his teams because his confidence in miracle throws is indomitable. He is the exception.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think it is pretty well established that with elite QBs, the rule disproves the exception that Brandt states as the rule. Maybe for middle of the road QBs, their completion percentages go down and their INT rates go up after 33, but that isn't the case with top tier QBs. It would make sense that many middle of the road QBs would experience this problem as they got older and not so much for top tier QBs. Middle of the road QBs are usually so because they have great physical skills, but aren't the best football minds when it comes to the position.

You look at most of the top QBs over history and what set them apart from the competition was the intangibles like being able to make presnap reads, quick releases, being able to check down receivers, and superior pocket presence. Those skills don't deteriorate over time nearly as fast as having a strong arm or quick feet. That is why you look at most of them over the last 20-30 years and they do not follow the trend that Brandt states.

You look at a guy like Bledsoe and it isn't surprising his career was over by his mid 30s (although he did have his second highest season completion rate at 33). They guy had a great arm, but wasn't exactly the best at the intangibles. His arm started to go and so did his play and it went fast.

It seems barring injuries that Brady will be like most elite QBs and buck the trend because, even though he does have great armstrength, what makes him a special QB is his head, not his arm. I can see him like an Elway or a Gannon and have some of his best years in his late 30s if he has the cast around him.

I have no problem with noting that great players last longer and play at a higher level. That's part of what makes them great. I've also got no problem with the notion that Brady should be able to play at an extremely high level well into his 30's.

I just don't think that pointing the the all-time greats and the best QBs of an emerging passing era disproves what Brandt was saying. As the game continues to evolve and the quarterbacks are becoming more and more protected from hits, we're seeing them last longer, and the age at which decline sets in will likely go up, but the general thrust of Brandt's point is still valid, even if changes in the game push the date back a year or so over time, and while you can point to a Tarkenton, I can point to someone like Fouts.

Also, you pointed to Marino, but his decline set in just a year later than the 33 that Brandt mentioned. His "peak" was 34 instead of 33.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hi Deus Irae. You have chosen to defend Gil Brandt. Good luck. Name five guys past the age of 33 who fit his claim that should have been starting for their teams or were mentoring high draft picks before becoming backups or retiring. Rob7092 made a great point with his post that experienced QBs get better with age as Peyton Manning is proving and we hope TB does as well.

No, Rob didn't make that good point. We know, clearly, that age gets to every player, including QBs. What we also know is that QBs tend to have later "primes" than most positional players, because of the complexity of the position and the tendency of teams that get good QBs to have been lousy teams that take time to improve.

So, we see that QBs tend to hit their "prime" in the late 20's and early 30's, after which they begin to decline, just like other players did at younger ages. Haggling over whether the general start of the decline will be at 32, 33, or 34 is just going to be a matter of how you're framing the issue. Clearly, even the great QBs tend to fall into definite decline when getting into the mid-30's.