Gil Brandt just said on Sirius NFL

[mcsully]

paraphrasing here "After the age of 33, QB's completion percentage goes down and INT's Go up"..

Is this something we should be concerned about with Brady? Or like in most cases, he'll stand out and we won't see his skill set drop until he's 36..

Just a food for thought.. But I thought it was interesting.. Especially when we hear that most RB's production drops after 30..

 

[pats1]

Look for the Pats to release Brady next August 3rd.

 

[OldNEPatsFan]

paraphrasing here "After the age of 33, QB's completion percentage goes down and INT's Go up"..

Is this something we should be concerned about with Brady? Or like in most cases, he'll stand out and we won't see his skill set drop until he's 36..

Just a food for thought.. But I thought it was interesting.. Especially when we hear that most RB's production drops after 30..

That seems about right when you look at lifetime stats of QB's. The oldest QB to win the SB was Elway at 38.

 

[Frezo]

That seems about right when you look at lifetime stats of QB's. The oldest QB to win the SB was Elway at 38.

...and he even gave up an INT.

 

[MaxVonDoom]

Normally Id say no worries mate but if Gil said it was so.............

 

[IcyPatriot]

Brady can just gain some weight and be converted to a very uber slow TE.

 

[Frezo]

Brady can just gain some weight and be converted to a very uber slow TE.

He'll only line up against Urlacher.

 

[Rob0729]

Gil Brandt is still living in 1976. I don't take anything he says as gospel. There are plenty of examples of QBs age 33 or older disproving Brandt's theory.


- Rich Gannon had his best years after 33. In fact, his highest season completion percentage and lowest INTs per pass attempt of his career was when he was 37.
- John Elway never completed over 60% of his passes in a season until he turned 33 and he did it three season post age 33. He also threw the most INTs of his career when he was 25, his second most when he was 28, his third most when he was 29, and fourth most when he was 32. His lowest INTs rate for a season was 10. He had that few of numbers of INTs three times in his career (ages 33, 34, and 38).
- Marino's second and third highest season completion rates were at ages 34 and 33. He threw the third fewest INTs in a season at age 35.
- Fran Tarkenton only completed over 60% of his passes in a season five times in his career. All of them were when he was 33 or older. He had his lowest INT rare in a single season when he was 35 (tied for the season when he was 29)
- Joe Montana only had a single season completion rate over 70% once in his career (well twice if you count the season where he had a season ending injury in the first game of the season) and that was at age 33.
- Warren Moon had his highest completion percentage at age 36 and second highest at age 39.
- Vinny Testeverde had his highest completion percentage and lowest INT rate (for a season he played 14 or more games) at age 35.
- Last year Kurt Warner had his third highest completion percentage and second lowest INT rate as a full time starter at age 37.

 

[Wax Frog]

On a hunch - this was before I got interested in the NFL, so didn't know previously - I nosed around and learned that Jim Plunkett got his rings at 33 and 36... more fodder for stat comparison...

 

[patriotsdynasty12189]

Brett Favre in Sept-Nov

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Brady won't have this problem as long as Wes Welker remains a healthy Patriot.

 

[xmarkd400x]

I'm pretty sure Brett Favre skews those statistics just a bit.

How many of his 300+ INTs have been thrown in the past 6-7 years, and how many QBs are still in the game at 33+?

 

[BionicPatriot]

Manning at 34 this year really sucks, he's right.

 

[Deus Irae]

Gil's not saying anything surprising here.

 

[ScottieC]

paraphrasing here "After the age of 33, QB's completion percentage goes down and INT's Go up"..

Is this something we should be concerned about with Brady? Or like in most cases, he'll stand out and we won't see his skill set drop until he's 36..

Just a food for thought.. But I thought it was interesting.. Especially when we hear that most RB's production drops after 30..

If he's going to group all QB's into that comment then he should qualify it - Brady/Manning are special and as such should not be held to the same generalizations that are made about ALL QB's. Including those that will be selling real estate and insurance in 2-3 years.

I would not be stupid enough to make that comment about future HOF'ers that are still breaking NFL records at their current age.

 

[scout]

Is Gil using information from his era. It was a standard practice to say it takes five years for a qb to be ready.

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

I'm pretty sure Brett Favre skews those statistics just a bit.

How many of his 300+ INTs have been thrown in the past 6-7 years, and how many QBs are still in the game at 33+?

Favre would be a 7 time Super Bowl champion if the season ended in November.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Gil Brandt is still living in 1976. I don't take anything he says as gospel. There are plenty of examples of QBs age 33 or older disproving Brandt's theory.


- Rich Gannon had his best years after 33. In fact, his highest season completion percentage and lowest INTs per pass attempt of his career was when he was 37.
- John Elway never completed over 60% of his passes in a season until he turned 33 and he did it three season post age 33. He also threw the most INTs of his career when he was 25, his second most when he was 28, his third most when he was 29, and fourth most when he was 32. His lowest INTs rate for a season was 10. He had that few of numbers of INTs three times in his career (ages 33, 34, and 38).
- Marino's second and third highest season completion rates were at ages 34 and 33. He threw the third fewest INTs in a season at age 35.
- Fran Tarkenton only completed over 60% of his passes in a season five times in his career. All of them were when he was 33 or older. He had his lowest INT rare in a single season when he was 35 (tied for the season when he was 29)
- Joe Montana only had a single season completion rate over 70% once in his career (well twice if you count the season where he had a season ending injury in the first game of the season) and that was at age 33.
- Warren Moon had his highest completion percentage at age 36 and second highest at age 39.
- Vinny Testeverde had his highest completion percentage and lowest INT rate (for a season he played 14 or more games) at age 35.
- Last year Kurt Warner had his third highest completion percentage and second lowest INT rate as a full time starter at age 37.

Great list. Off the top of my head, I'd also add a few former 49ers in Steve Young, whose career was blocked by Montana but was brilliant in his mid to late 30s until injuries forced him to retire, as well as Jeff Garcia, who played well in his early 30s, struggled a few years as the 49ers did, and then had 2 of his best years in terms of completion percentage and lowest interception percentage with Tampa Bay at ages 37 and 38. And both were running QBs whose evasive skills deteriorated, but their overall game improved.

In Brandt's era, that might have been more accurate. But modern football players take their off-season training much more seriously than back in the 70's. The OP comparison of RBs isn't really a fair comparison since RBs get the crap beaten out of them 20 times a game. It's a significantly different role.

In short, I'm really not worried about Tom Brady over the next few years.

 

[Jangles]

Favre would be a 7 time Super Bowl champion if the season ended in November.

18 times, or is it 19?

He'd go every year if you listened to the media about how good he is

 

[goheels22002]

Gil Brandt is still living in 1976. I don't take anything he says as gospel. There are plenty of examples of QBs age 33 or older disproving Brandt's theory.


- Rich Gannon had his best years after 33. In fact, his highest season completion percentage and lowest INTs per pass attempt of his career was when he was 37.
- John Elway never completed over 60% of his passes in a season until he turned 33 and he did it three season post age 33. He also threw the most INTs of his career when he was 25, his second most when he was 28, his third most when he was 29, and fourth most when he was 32. His lowest INTs rate for a season was 10. He had that few of numbers of INTs three times in his career (ages 33, 34, and 38).
- Marino's second and third highest season completion rates were at ages 34 and 33. He threw the third fewest INTs in a season at age 35.
- Fran Tarkenton only completed over 60% of his passes in a season five times in his career. All of them were when he was 33 or older. He had his lowest INT rare in a single season when he was 35 (tied for the season when he was 29)
- Joe Montana only had a single season completion rate over 70% once in his career (well twice if you count the season where he had a season ending injury in the first game of the season) and that was at age 33.
- Warren Moon had his highest completion percentage at age 36 and second highest at age 39.
- Vinny Testeverde had his highest completion percentage and lowest INT rate (for a season he played 14 or more games) at age 35.
- Last year Kurt Warner had his third highest completion percentage and second lowest INT rate as a full time starter at age 37.

Wow. That took a lot of work, Rob0729. I've been thinking Brady was at the end of the line and a replacement is urgently needed in the next year or so. Barring another season-ending injury, we have lots to look forward to, it might seem. UFAs and RFAs and their agents must look at stuff like your post when deciding which teams to target for late-career opportunities. This suggests that Brady's best year may not have been 2007 - that's scary.

Gil Brandt misses the point when generalizing like this. Old guys who are undisciplined but talented will try to recapture early career magic and throw all sorts of INTs as will old guys on crappy teams who take sacks and are chronically trying to come from behind and throwing 40+ times a game. Put Tom Brady or Peyton Manning on the Browns and their INTs will skyrocket behind that line and always being down a couple of scores because Eric Ingrate Rat-Snitch Mangini has players trying to get him fired rather than focusing on the opponent.

A guy like Brady who plays in a West Coast offense, has an OL that keeps his uniform clean, and who has games like those against Jacksonville on a fairly frequent basis will be consistent until it's just not there anymore.