Gibson and Harper

[Ring 6]

Dont know. I always said targets. You said catches. . Moving on...



Yes and no. I say that b/c it is based more on personnel and playmaking ability. If you think your "move" player is a better playmaker than your "passing" RB, you throw to him more. If you think your WR3/4 is a better matchup threat or a better receiving threat than your TE or your RB you throw to him. In 07 Gaffney/Stallworth were the WR3/4 threats and they were both targeted more than Watson and almost the same as Faulk. In 2011 Woodhead had 31 targets and was 6th on the team. Why? There were better options to throw to. When Gronk went down in 2012 ans 2013, they threw more to JE, DA and Vereen.

This year is no different than any others and we see that this Patriot offense rarely ever throws to the 4th WR (actually you could say never because the 4th guy is only catching passes when he is 3rd at the time due to injury) and not even much to the 3rd. Its just a fact.

Yes and no. Pats were in 4WR formation 27% of the time last year which is not a lot. In 07 it was 42% when they had the personnel. W/O Brady, Stallworth and Gaffney in 08 it went back down to 27%. 2013 was 25%. 2012 28%

OK, but you are misusing that statistic. The Patriots did not have 4 WIDE RECEIVERS on the field any where near 27% of the time. They lined up as 4 wides, but almost always that included a TE and/or a RB split out.

This is my point. The Patriot personell packages almost never have 4 WRs on the field and almost never have zero RBs. Hell, they have split Devlin out at the sidelines as a WR.
The reason is that personnel dictates personnel. If you put Gronk and 4 WRs on the field you will face 6 dbs, maybe 7. BB sees no sense in this, so when we spread the field there is a RB split out. Why? Because that means the defense has rb.te.3wr personnel on the field.

Could BB completely change his offensive philosophy? I guess, but I don't see any reason he would, and the difference between Shane Vereen and James White certainly won't cause it.



Agreed. Harper is not making the team anyway.[/QUOTE]

 

[RobertWeathers]

This year is no different than any others and we see that this Patriot offense rarely ever throws to the 4th WR (actually you could say never because the 4th guy is only catching passes when he is 3rd at the time due to injury) and not even much to the 3rd. Its just a fact.

Thats not completely true, Andy. In 2007 they threw to their 4th WR 50 times. Obviously my contention is that they had the personnel and their WR4 was a better receiver than their TE.

OK, but you are misusing that statistic. The Patriots did not have 4 WIDE RECEIVERS on the field any where near 27% of the time. They lined up as 4 wides, but almost always that included a TE and/or a RB split out.

This is my point. The Patriot personell packages almost never have 4 WRs on the field and almost never have zero RBs. Hell, they have split Devlin out at the sidelines as a WR.
The reason is that personnel dictates personnel. If you put Gronk and 4 WRs on the field you will face 6 dbs, maybe 7. BB sees no sense in this, so when we spread the field there is a RB split out. Why? Because that means the defense has rb.te.3wr personnel on the field.

Could BB completely change his offensive philosophy? I guess, but I don't see any reason he would, and the difference between Shane Vereen and James White certainly won't cause it.

Fair points and I agree with you that is exactly what BB/JMD does and what they prefer. However you need the personnel to execute it. Vereen was very good at it. If White/Lewis/Cadet or Forrest Gump can't split out and execute consistently, a WR4 or even Edelman will slide around back there so they can shake him free.

 

[PatsFan2]

AJ: Never say never "IF" Harper puts up good numbers the next two game games WR needy Teams will be taking notice. There ain't much out there and a young guy with some upside might become a hot comodity. With the new Practice Squad rules the Patriots have many players they could gamble with in that area. Including alot of their current young O-Linemen. IF they value Harper enough they could find a spot for him at the bottom of ther Roster.

 

[Ring 6]

Thats not completely true, Andy. In 2007 they threw to their 4th WR 50 times. Obviously my contention is that they had the personnel and their WR4 was a better receiver than their TE.

But not if you look at the real facts.
First the 3rd WR caught 46 and the 4th caught 36. But that isn't an accurate depiction of them throwing to the 4th receiver. Stallworth caught most of his passes in the first 1/2-3/4 of the season and then Gaffney moved ahead of him and caught most of his. (21/36 after week 10)
So really the #3 WR caught a lot of passes, partly because the TEs were not so good and partly because we threw a lot more than normal.

Fair points and I agree with you that is exactly what BB/JMD does and what they prefer. However you need the personnel to execute it. Vereen was very good at it. If White/Lewis/Cadet or Forrest Gump can't split out and execute consistently, a WR4 or even Edelman will slide around back there so they can shake him free.

We did it with Vereen, Woodhead, Faulk, Heath Evans, Larry Centers, JR Redmond, etc, etc.
We will do it with White or whoever.
Again, we could all of a sudden put 4 WRs on the field, but we just really have never done it.

 

[Ring 6]

AJ: Never say never "IF" Harper puts up good numbers the next two game games WR needy Teams will be taking notice. There ain't much out there and a young guy with some upside might become a hot comodity. With the new Practice Squad rules the Patriots have many players they could gamble with in that area. Including alot of their current young O-Linemen. IF they value Harper enough they could find a spot for him at the bottom of ther Roster.

Every team has a Harper. There is nothing special about him that makes him any better. Numbers in preseason games are not an indication of 'upside'.
He will be viewed as a guy who is competitive in camp and could possible make a roster, not as some unique talent that is a 'hot commodity'.
Why would they value him any more than the guy who they could sign as a UDFA next year?

 

[patsinthesnow]

I'm glad BB kept Butler as a 6th corner last year and didn't let him test waivers.

 

[RobertWeathers]

But not if you look at the real facts.
First the 3rd WR caught 46 and the 4th caught 36. But that isn't an accurate depiction of them throwing to the 4th receiver. Stallworth caught most of his passes in the first 1/2-3/4 of the season and then Gaffney moved ahead of him and caught most of his. (21/36 after week 10)
So really the #3 WR caught a lot of passes, partly because the TEs were not so good and partly because we threw a lot more than normal.

Not really...
2007 Targets Games 1-8 Stallworth: 38 9-16: 37
2007 Targets Games 1-8 Gaffney: 18 9-16: 32

So Stallworth's targets stayed the same and Gaffney's went up. Ironically, TB12 weeks 1-9 threw it 33 times a game and 10-16 chucked it 40 times a game.

At any rate I remember Gaffney and WW in the slot and Moss & Stallworth out wide a ton which is why 42% did not surprise me at all.

We did it with Vereen, Woodhead, Faulk, Heath Evans, Larry Centers, JR Redmond, etc, etc. We will do it with White or whoever.
Again, we could all of a sudden put 4 WRs on the field, but we just really have never done it.

I agree that 4WR wide in this offense is the exception rather than the norm. I just think that with the personnel they have at 4WR (except the kid who is about to get cut) are better pass catchers than anyone they have at RB. Last (and only time) time you could say that was maybe 2011.

We've killed this one. Moving on..

 

[captain stone]

Locks: Edelman, Wayne, Amendola

Possible PUP: LaFell

Everyone Else: Dropson, Boyce, Harper, D'Orazio, Krause

I'd say that Harper has as good a chance at making the 53 as anyone else in the Everyone Else column.

 

[PatsFan2]

Should we read too much into Chris Harper *Returning Punts*? For you to be returning punts it means you have sure hands. With the rash of WR's going down to injury especially in Greenbay would BB risk Edelman regularly knowing that he's now and bonifide WR and our #1 at the position? Remains to be seen how much they like the kid.

 

[Oswlek]

Should we read too much into Chris Harper *Returning Punts*? For you to be returning punts it means you have sure hands. With the rash of WR's going down to injury especially in Greenbay would BB risk Edelman regularly knowing that he's now and bonifide WR and our #1 at the position? Remains to be seen how much they like the kid.

Unlikely to mean much. Punt return duties are hair raising and I doubt Bill would put a rookie back there when he has an all-time great and competent Amendola as well.