The Jags offense is a clone of the 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers, in almost every facet. Del Rio and Co. must have used the Steelers as a model. 'Fragile" Fred has cropped up again, tweaking his hamstring and not being able to finish the Titan game. Jones-Drew supposedly had an X-ray of a leg injury post-game, and had trouble putting weight on his leg. Del Rio will conceal the true nature of these injuries all week, as is his habit. But the inability of Taylor to finish such a crucial game, and Jones-Drew, an injury prone college player, limping around post-game, suggest these two crucial cogs may be sub-par and possibly out of the Pats game. The ramifications of those two injuries on the Jaguar offense are enormous.... Garrard's greatest weakness as a QB is his downfield accuracy and ability to read defenses. The downfield accuracy problem makes it difficult for him, at times, to exploit the height advantage the Jags' giant receivers provide. They also make him prone to INTs when he is forced to throw frequently. As a Qb he is similar to Roethlisberger circa 2004, with the same scrambling ability to buy time and look for the deep throw. Mike Tice, the O-coordinator, has compensated for these QB weaknesses by making the offense RB driven. The Jags have the #2 running offense in the league, and Jones-Drew, in only a half-season of steady use, is already #2 on the team in receptions. The outside Wrs are notoriously inconsistent and prone to drops, like Plaxico Buress circa 2004. With these factors in mind, I expect the Pats D will dominate this game. The Patriots currently have the #4 defensive passer rating in the NFL, allowing a league low 9 TDs against 20 INTs. They also have the #4 rushing defense, and provided Wilfork returns, which seems likely considering he was out doing TV spots last week, the Pats front 7 should adequately contain a "hamstrung" Jags' running game. Garrard will struggle to diagnose the Pats' coverage, and play conservatively as a result of his 3 int game last week vs. the Titans, going to underrated TE Wrightster and checkdowns whenever possible. There will be opportunities for multiple ints by the coverages: The improved play of Hobbs vs. Andre Johnson, and the steady play of Samuel, combined with the Pats' rubix-cube/chameleon schemes, make this matchup very favorable for the Pats. The Jags special teams are not special. Jones-Drew's return ability props up an otherwise ordinary unit. The punter has a 33 yard net, Pearman an 8.9 yard per punt return average. If Jones Drew is hobbled, this unit is rendered average. While the Pats may have the advantage in big play potential with a revitalized Ellis Hobbs at KR, the already shaky Ken Walter, now with a hurt foot, and a hobbled Kevin Faulk rob the Pats of any Special Teams edge. Troy Brown will likely handle all PRs; this game may be too big for a Willie Andrews rookie sighting. The Jags defense has 3 star players and several solid ones. The Big Two make running a laughable exercise, similar to Minnesota, and give McCray opportunities for sacks. LB Daryl Smith plays the Mike Petersen role this year, among the easiest LB assignments in football, and Clint Ingram is among the most productive rookie LBers in the league, taking monthly rookie honors last month. CB Mathis is a top 5 player at his position. Since the Denver game, when the Pats were still suffering the immediate after effects of the Branch fiasco, the Pats have averaged 30 points per game against every team not coach by BB disciples Saban and Mangini. (Average score 30-12). This is partly the result of an easy schedule, partly due to the Pats coaching advantage vs. the field. The Jags defense, while physically gifted and mentally tough, does not scheme at the level of the Dolphins and the Jets, the only teams able to expose and fluster the Pats' offense for a full 60 minutes. Maroney's ornery attitude with the press indicates to me a readiness to play, and I believe he will in this game. Using Maroney in the passing game, similar to the way he was used against Chicago (provided he can shake the rust off his hands after a week of practice), will break down the Jaguar D, just as it was effective against Denver, when used, and Chicago. The solid play of David Thomas, who seemed to develop a rapport with Brady vs. Houston, gives Tom another reliable outlet. Unfortunately, I believe Caldwell will be physically pushed around (his weakness), just as Miami did and Chicago did for 3 quarters, and disappear. The key players for the Pats will be Troy Brown, Gaffney, Maroney and Thomas. Considering the relative unreliability of those players, (age, inconsistency, injury, inexperience) The Pats O is likely to struggle and Pats fans should not be surprised, or disappointed by that revelation. Bottom line: The game will come down to (1) which QB makes the wrong decision at the wrong time, Brady or Garrard; (2) Which injured rookie rb can make a greater impact: Maroney or Jones-Drew. (3) Which Wrs, recently prone to drops, can hang onto the ball, Troy Brown and Gaffney vs. R. Williams and Jones; and (4) which underused TE can provide the best safety blanket for his QB, David Thomas or George Wrightster. History shows Brady will outplay Garrard in a test of wills; Maroney's rib injury, after 3 weeks rest, is likely not as great an impediment as Jones' recent lower leg injury; Troy Brown still has enough savvy to make the smart play in the big game, which the others may lack; but George Wrightster will probably outplay David Thomas. 3 out of 4 aint bad... Conclusion: Pats win, 20-13.