Gaffney and Caldwell

[PATRIOTS-80]

PatsfaninPA in the draft forum made a real interesting post. An old Mel Kiper projection, project Daniel Graham at 13 to the Saints, Gaffney to 16 to the Falcons, and Caldwell at 18 to the Redskins. Both WR slipped to the 2nd round.



http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=50001

Because WR rely on so many things to happen, the C-QB exchange, the OL picking up pass-rush, the QB's ability to locate and get the ball to the WR in timing, WR's stats are dependent on so many things.

I really like the BB philosophy of building the trenches, and getting your WR in the 2nd and later rounds. Much different from the Matt Millen philosophy. WR are one of the biggest gambles in the draft.

 

[gomezcat]

PatsfaninPA in the draft forum made a real interesting post. An old Mel Kiper projection, project Daniel Graham at 13 to the Saints, Gaffney to 16 to the Falcons, and Caldwell at 18 to the Redskins. Both WR slipped to the 2nd round.



http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=50001

Because WR rely on so many things to happen, the C-QB exchange, the OL picking up pass-rush, the QB's ability to locate and get the ball to the WR in timing, WR's stats are dependent on so many things.

I really like the BB philosophy of building the trenches, and getting your WR in the 2nd and later rounds. Much different from the Matt Millen philosophy. WR are one of the biggest gambles in the draft.

I agree. WRs seem to be a massive gamble as first rounders. I have always wondered about the reason. I suspect that Defence is that much more sophisticated in the NFL, which has the knock-on effect you describe.

 

[everlong]

I think you'll see the same thing this year where most of the wide outs drop 10-20 spots from the early projects. Last year Holmes and Jackson both were being projected in the teens to low twenties and they fell. Most teams would rather use the second round choice to gamble on the WRs.

 

[Oswlek]

I think you'll see the same thing this year where most of the wide outs drop 10-20 spots from the early projects. Last year Holmes and Jackson both were being projected in the teens to low twenties and they fell. Most teams would rather use the second round choice to gamble on the WRs.

Seems reasonable if you go by 2006 alone, but it is not historically accurate.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history

2005 - 6 in first round; 3 in second
2004 - 6 in first round; 5 in second
2003 - 3 in first round; 4 in second
2002 - 3 in first round; 8 in second

Other than 2002, none of the recent drafts back up what happened this past year. In fact, many of the first rounders where taken in the fist 15 picks.

I know nothing about nothing, but there does not seem to be precedent for what you are saying, just random occurances.

 

[everlong]

I forgot it was that high the previous two years but look how they turned out.

3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards - WR Injured very little production
7 Minnesota Troy Williamson - WR Marginal
10 Detroit Mike Williams - WR Bust
21 Jacksonville Matt Jones - WR Ok player
22 Baltimore Mark Clayton - WR Good player
27 Atlanta Roddy White - WR Bust


3 Arizona Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh Star
7 Detroit Roy Williams WR Texas Star
9 Jacksonville Reggie Williams WR Washington Fair player
13 Buffalo Lee Evans WR Wisconsin Good player
15 Tampa Bay Michael Clayton WR Louisiana State Good player
29 Atlanta Michael Jenkins WR Ohio State Fair player
31 San Francisco Rashaun Woods WR Oklahoma State Bust

Maybe they haven't learned, I hope you are right.

 

[upstater1]

I forgot it was that high the previous two years but look how they turned out.

3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards - WR Injured very little production
7 Minnesota Troy Williamson - WR Marginal
10 Detroit Mike Williams - WR Bust
21 Jacksonville Matt Jones - WR Ok player
22 Baltimore Mark Clayton - WR Good player
27 Atlanta Roddy White - WR Bust


3 Arizona Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh Star
7 Detroit Roy Williams WR Texas Star
9 Jacksonville Reggie Williams WR Washington Fair player
13 Buffalo Lee Evans WR Wisconsin Good player
15 Tampa Bay Michael Clayton WR Louisiana State Good player
29 Atlanta Michael Jenkins WR Ohio State Fair player
31 San Francisco Rashaun Woods WR Oklahoma State Bust

Maybe they haven't learned, I hope you are right.

Somethings change as receivers mature. The Bucs Clayton has had a huge falloff, while Braylon Edwards produced twice as much as he did. So, things do change a little bit as player's get more experience.

 

[gomezcat]

I do wonder if the complexity of NFL schemes does make a difference. Is it easier to get open against college zones and college corners, and is this a bigger step up to have to make than for other positions? It does all make me wonder.

 

[everlong]

I think many of them has such an extreme physical advantage in college they didn't have to learn how to get off of press coverage, run good routes....it was pretty much run a go and out leap the other guy or out run him.