Future Hall of Famers

[AzorianPats]

On this current team, besides the obvious 2, Gronk has a great shot.

Now of all time? Moss is a lock for sure, and I'm willing to say Vinateiri gets in. Harrison, Seymour, Dillon, and Welker have good shots.

 

[VrabelJr]

Casey Hampton is more likely to make the HOF than Vince Wilfork. Also let's see where Haloti Ngata's career is when he's done.

 

[Ivan]

Why not Seymour?

He was arguably the second most valuable player (after Tom) on 3 Super Bowl winning teams. He anchored the defense of a team that won 3 super bowls, on a team that was known for its defense. When a team is as good as those Patriots teams are they'll get a representative - who better than Seymour, who was the key to Belichick's 30 front schemes because of his versatility?

He pretty much defined the 5-tech defensive end position, and for that he was chosen to the 2000s all-decade team. 3 1st team All-Pro nods (to Wilfork's 1), 57.5 sacks (to Wilfork's 16.0). And he played out of even alignments on many snaps, often doing the exact same "unglamorous" task that Wilfork has done of tying up blockers.

The thing is, when players with "unquantifiable roles" are considered, the performance of their unit is given weight to make up for it. Seymour didn't get that many sacks because he was 2-gapping, but the defense was so successful that you could absolve him for it. Wilfork? In the years he has been given all-pro consideration the Patriots defense has been 28th, 29th, 21st, 7th, and 19th in YPA. Against the run? 6th, 24th, 16th, 23rd, and 26th in YPC. So he doesn't have team success or statistical success to lean on here.

And that's before getting to players from other teams who have a case - I have a hard time seeing Wilfork in before Kevin Williams or La'Roi Glover for example.

I think Seymour was well on his way to the Hall when he was traded to oakland but that place is a black hole for careers and I'm guessing he suffers from that when it comes time to make a case for him. Had he gone to a contender and continued to play the way he did in NE i think he would have strolled in.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Canton

Brady's the only player on the roster today who is a slam dunk, five years and one minute after he retires.

Gronk? If he stays healthy enough to put in another four or five seasons at a high level, I think it might be in the cards.

Wilfork? I'll confess ignorance as to the criteria and stats around how these guys get picked to go into the HOF, but he's sure a beast and if he puts in a few more years, it's hard to imagine someone besides him who is playing his position today who would be a better candidate.

Jones? Come on. Way too soon.

Pats HOF

Probably three or four who are active today.

 

[primetime]

Belichick and Brady are first-ballot locks.

If there was justice in this world, Wilfork would be a near-lock. Unfortunately, if Ted Washington and Steve Tasker can't get in, Wilfork won't either. He's a Patriots HOFer for sure.

Gronk's got to continue to play at a top level for many more years before he enters the discussion.

Other guys either don't have a chance or it's way too early to tell.

Among former Patriots, Moss is a first-ballot lock and Welker is a near-lock. I used to think Welker was a borderline guy who would probably get passed over because he didn't emerge as a game-changer until after a few years into his career, but he's been so consistently good and has shown so few signs of slowing down that he's probably going to be make it, albeit not as a first ballot guy because WR is such a loaded position.

Among active players, by team, who have a shot (note only currently exceptional young players are included; many like Chandler Jones could stand out in the future) - 'unlikely' means that player will probably be an annual finalist at best. I'm a tough grader, though - my Hall of Fame would be more exclusive than the current one.

Generally, these are guys who are or have been the best player at their position, or likely will be shortly.

BUF: M.Williams (unlikely)
MIA: None
NE: Brady (first ballot), Belichick (first ballot), Wilfork (unlikely), Gronkowski (early), McCourty (early)
NYJ: Mangold (unlikely)

BAL: Ngata (unlikely), Suggs (unlikely)
CIN: A.Green (early), Harrison (unlikely), Atkins (early)
CLE: J.Thomas (early), Haden (early)
PIT: Polamalu (borderline), Roethlisberger (unlikely)

HOU: Reed (first ballot), A.Johnson (likely), Lechler (unlikely), Watt (early), Brown (early)
IND: Wayne (likely), Mathis (unlikely), Luck (early)
JAX: Jones-Drew (unlikely)
TEN: None

DEN: Manning (first ballot), Bailey (likely), Welker (likely), Clady (early), V.Miller (early), D.Thomas (early)
KC: Hali (unlikely), Berry (early), Houston (early)
OAK: Woodson (likely)
SD: Freeney (likely), Gates (borderline)

DAL: Ware (borderline), Waters (borderline), Witten (unlikely), Romo (unlikely), Bryant (early)
NYG: Pierre-Paul (early), Cruz (early), Tuck (unlikely)
PHI: McCoy (early)
WAS: Fletcher (unlikely)

CHI: Hester (unlikely), Peppers (unlikely), Marshall (unlikely)
DET: C.Johnson (first ballot)
GB: Rodgers (likely), Matthews (early)
MIN: Peterson (first ballot), J.Allen (borderline), K.Williams (unlikely)

ATL: Gonzalez (first ballot), Jones (early), Samuel (unlikely), S.Jackson (unlikely)
CAR: Kuechly (early)
NO: Brees (first ballot), Evans (borderline), Graham (early)
TB: Revis (likely), McCoy (early), Nicks (unlikely)

ARI: Fitzgerald (likely)
STL: R.Quinn (early)
SF: Willis (likely), Boldin (unlikely), J.Smith (unlikely), Staley (early)
SEA: Sherman (early), E.Thomas (early)

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Belichick and Brady are first-ballot locks.


DAL: Ware (borderline), Waters (borderline), Witten (unlikely), Romo (unlikely), Bryant (early)
NYG: Pierre-Paul (early), Cruz (early), Tuck (unlikely)
PHI: McCoy (early)
WAS: Fletcher (unlikely)

thanks for such a thoughtful job. a lot to absorb.

as much as it pains me to say it and despite the fact that for 95% of his NFL career he has more resembled Trent Dilfer than his brother, I think it will be tough to keep Eli out of Canton, based on those two great runs and two rings. He'd be the only QB with two rings and no "unusual circumstances" (like narrowly dodging a couple of rape charges, as did Big Ben) not to get into the HOF.

Probably not first ballot, but I think we have to resign ourselves to the fact that he became part of NFL history by keeping the Pats from perfection in 2008 and then won it all again a few years later.

 

[fnordcircle]

Brady, Belichick, Kraft.

That is it.

 

[Joker]

Craig James...

 

[coolguy]

Brady, Belichick, adam vinatieri .

That is it.

FIXED

Randy moss is going in as a viking and welker has no shot because tim brown, reggie wayne, issac bruce, and steve smith are not getting in.

Tim brown is 5th in all time reciever yards
reggie wayne is 11
issac bruce is 4
steve smith is 23
chad johnson is 28
and wes welker is 49

Yards is more important than catches.

 

[AzorianPats]

Belichick and Brady are first-ballot locks.

If there was justice in this world, Wilfork would be a near-lock. Unfortunately, if Ted Washington and Steve Tasker can't get in, Wilfork won't either. He's a Patriots HOFer for sure.

Gronk's got to continue to play at a top level for many more years before he enters the discussion.

Other guys either don't have a chance or it's way too early to tell.

Among former Patriots, Moss is a first-ballot lock and Welker is a near-lock. I used to think Welker was a borderline guy who would probably get passed over because he didn't emerge as a game-changer until after a few years into his career, but he's been so consistently good and has shown so few signs of slowing down that he's probably going to be make it, albeit not as a first ballot guy because WR is such a loaded position.

Among active players, by team, who have a shot (note only currently exceptional young players are included; many like Chandler Jones could stand out in the future) - 'unlikely' means that player will probably be an annual finalist at best. I'm a tough grader, though - my Hall of Fame would be more exclusive than the current one.

Generally, these are guys who are or have been the best player at their position, or likely will be shortly.

BUF: M.Williams (unlikely)
MIA: None
NE: Brady (first ballot), Belichick (first ballot), Wilfork (unlikely), Gronkowski (early), McCourty (early)
NYJ: Mangold (unlikely)

BAL: Ngata (unlikely), Suggs (unlikely)
CIN: A.Green (early), Harrison (unlikely), Atkins (early)
CLE: J.Thomas (early), Haden (early)
PIT: Polamalu (borderline), Roethlisberger (unlikely)

HOU: Reed (first ballot), A.Johnson (likely), Lechler (unlikely), Watt (early), Brown (early)
IND: Wayne (likely), Mathis (unlikely), Luck (early)
JAX: Jones-Drew (unlikely)
TEN: None

DEN: Manning (first ballot), Bailey (likely), Welker (likely), Clady (early), V.Miller (early), D.Thomas (early)
KC: Hali (unlikely), Berry (early), Houston (early)
OAK: Woodson (likely)
SD: Freeney (likely), Gates (borderline)

DAL: Ware (borderline), Waters (borderline), Witten (unlikely), Romo (unlikely), Bryant (early)
NYG: Pierre-Paul (early), Cruz (early), Tuck (unlikely)
PHI: McCoy (early)
WAS: Fletcher (unlikely)

CHI: Hester (unlikely), Peppers (unlikely), Marshall (unlikely)
DET: C.Johnson (first ballot)
GB: Rodgers (likely), Matthews (early)
MIN: Peterson (first ballot), J.Allen (borderline), K.Williams (unlikely)

ATL: Gonzalez (first ballot), Jones (early), Samuel (unlikely), S.Jackson (unlikely)
CAR: Kuechly (early)
NO: Brees (first ballot), Evans (borderline), Graham (early)
TB: Revis (likely), McCoy (early), Nicks (unlikely)

ARI: Fitzgerald (likely)
STL: R.Quinn (early)
SF: Willis (likely), Boldin (unlikely), J.Smith (unlikely), Staley (early)
SEA: Sherman (early), E.Thomas (early)

See I think Roethlisburger and Gates are first ballot....

 

[primetime]

FIXED

Randy moss is going in as a viking and welker has no shot because tim brown, reggie wayne, issac bruce, and steve smith are not getting in.

Tim brown is 5th in all time reciever yards
reggie wayne is 11
issac bruce is 4
steve smith is 23
chad johnson is 28
and wes welker is 49

Yards is more important than catches.

Yardage isn't really more important than anything else, or we'd be calling Henry Ellard a potential Hall of Fame candidate (he is, after all 10th all time in receiving yards). Body of work is what is important, and that includes catches, touchdowns, and yards.

As for yardage, Welker's a full 2 years younger than the next youngest guy on that list (Steve Smith) and has a style of play that lends itself to continuing at a high level well into his mid-to-late 30s. He'll pass Art Monk in about 3,500 yards, which (if he continues at his current pace), he'd be 35. He could pass Henry Ellard for 10th all-time in yards in 4 seasons if he continues at a pace that is equivalent to his lowest yardage totals since he emerged as a top-flight receiver in 2007.

See I think Roethlisburger and Gates are first ballot....

Gates should probably be a likely. He can't block, but nor could Shannon Sharpe. Roethlisberger, on the other hand, would be a likely (not first-ballot) if not for the fact that the Hall of Fame requires you to get a certain number of votes from sportswriters, and Roethlisberger is a thoroughly detestable human being.

 

[jmt57]

FIXED

Randy moss is going in as a viking and welker has no shot because tim brown, reggie wayne, issac bruce, and steve smith are not getting in.

Tim brown is 5th in all time reciever yards
reggie wayne is 11
issac bruce is 4
steve smith is 23
chad johnson is 28
and wes welker is 49

Yards is more important than catches.

If you are using career receiving yards as a determining factor, then you need to figure where he will likely be when he retires rather than where he ranks today. I would guess that Welker will be somewhere in the top 20.

Tim Brown has been a HoF finalist for four straight years; he very well may get in very soon.

While yards may be a better measuring stick than receptions, to me the best is to compare a player to his peers. The game has, and continues to change so much that all-time rankings in passing and receiving are meaningless. Consider quarterbacks who retired with the 6th, 7th, and 9th most career passing yards: Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe, Kerry Collins.

That being said, that is how I look at, and not necessarily the ones that matter - the voters.


Considering his career is not yet over, Welker compares favorably to other current potential HoF candidates:

Tim Brown
5x Top-10 in receiving yards, 4x top-5, 1x top-3
6x Top-10 in receptions, 2x top-5, led NFL 1x
9x Pro Bowl, zero times All Pro

Isaac Bruce
4x Top-5 in receiving yards, 3x top-3, led NFL 1x
2x Top-10 in receptions, 1x top-5 (4th)
4x Pro Bowl, zero times All Pro

Wes Welker
4x Top-10 in receiving yards, 2nd twice
7x Top-10 in receptions, 5x 1st or 2nd, led NFL 3x
5x Pro Bowl, 2x All Pro



For further comparison, some HoF wide receivers

Cris Carter (2013)
5x Top 10 in receiving yards, zero times top 5
8x Top 10 in receptions, 5x top 5, led NFL 1x
8x Pro Bowl, 2x All Pro
Aided by being a national NFL television analyst

Art Monk (2008)
3x Top 10 in receiving yards, 2x top 5
4x Top 10 in receptions, 3x top 5, led NFL 1x
3x Pro Bowl, 1x All Pro

Michael Irvin (2007)
6x Top 10 in receiving yards, 4x top 5, led NFL 1x, 2nd 2x
4x Top 10 in receptions, 3x top 5
5x Pro Bowl, 1x All Pro
3x Super Bowl winner

James Lofton (2003)
8x Top 10 in receiving yards, 5x top 5
2x Top 10 in receptions (5th, 7th)
8x Pro Bowl, 1x All Pro

Charlie Joiner (1996)
3x Top 10 in receiving yards (3rd, 4th, 6th)
3x Top 10 in receptions (4th, 5th, 9th)
3x Pro Bowl, 1x All Pro

 

[jmt57]

Roethlisberger started out his career looking to be a slam dunk for the HoF; remember when people wanted him included in the Brady vs Manning discussions? Using similar criteria as above, here is how he compares to his peers.

Ben Roethlisberger
Passing Yards: 3x top 10 (best: 7th)
Passing TD: 3x top 10, 1x top 5
Passer Rating: 7x top 10, 5x top 5
Completion %: 6x top 10, 2x top 5
Yards per Pass: 7x top 10, 5x top 5, led NFL 1x
2x Pro Bowl, 2x Super Bowl winner

Peyton Manning (15 seasons, 14 as starter)
Passing Yards: 14x top 10, 10x top 5, led NFL 2x
Passing TD: 14x top 10/top 5, 3x led NFL
Passer Rating: 13x top 10, 9x top 5, led NFL 3x
Completion %: 13x top 10, 11x top 5, led NFL 2x
Yards per Pass: 11x top 10, 9x top 5, led NFL 1x
12x Pro Bowl, 6x All Pro, 1x Super Bowl winner

Drew Brees (13 seasons, 11 as starter)
Passing Yards: 8x top 10, 6x top 5, led NFL 4x
Passing TD: 9x top 10, 7x top 5, led NFL 4x
Passer Rating: 7x top 10, 5x top 5, led NFL 1x
Completion %: 9x top 10, 5x top 5, led NFL 3x
Yards per Pass: 6x top 10, 3x top 5
7x Pro Bowl, 1x All Pro, 1x Super Bowl winner

Tom Brady (13 seasons, 11 as starter)
Passing Yards: 10x top 10, 5x top 5, led NFL 2x
Passing TD: 10x top 10, 7x top 5, led NFL 3x
Passer Rating: 11x top 10, 3x top 5, led NFL 2x
Completion %: 8x top 10, 4x top 5, led NFL 1x
Yards per Pass: 6x top 10, 3x top 5, led NFL 1x
8x pro Bowl, 2x All Pro, 3x Super Bowl winner

Philip Rivers (9 seasons, 7 as starter)
Passing Yards: 5x top 10, 2x top 5, led NFL 1x
Passing TD: 6x top 10, 2x top 5, led NFL 1x
Passer Rating: 4x top 10, 3x top 5, led NFL 1x
Completion %: 5x top 10, 1x top 5
Yards per Pass: 5x top 10, 3x top 5, led NFL 3x
4x Pro Bowl

Aaron Rodgers (8 seasons, 5 as starter)
Passing Yards: 5x top 10, 3x top 5
Passing TD: 5x top 10, 4x top 5
Passer Rating: 5x top 10, 4x top 5, led NFL 2x
Completion %: 5x top 10, 3x top 5
Yards per Pass: 5x top 10, 4x top 5, led NFL 1x
3x pro Bowl, 1x All Pro, 1x Super Bowl winner

Tony Romo (9 seasons, 6 as starter)
Passing Yards: 4x top 10, 3x top 5
Passing TD: 5x top 10, 2x top 5
Passer Rating: 6x top 10, 3x top 5
Completion %: 4x top 10, 3x top 5
Yards per Pass: 6x top 10, 3x top 5, led NFL 1x
3x Pro Bowl

Carson Palmer (9 seasons, 8 as starter)
Passing Yards: 5x top 10, 3x top 5
Passing TD: 4x top 10, 2x top 5, led NFL 1x
Passer Rating: 2x top 10, 1x top 5
Completion %: 2x top 10, 1x top 5, led NFL 1x
Yards per Pass: 3x top 10, 2x top 5
2x Pro Bowl

Eli Manning (9 seasons, 8 as starter)
Passing Yards: 4x top 10, 3x top 5
Passing TD: 7x top 10, 3x top 5
Passer Rating: 1x top 10 (7th)
Completion %: 1x top 10 (9th)
Yards per Pass: 4x top 10, 1x top 5
3x Pro Bowl, 2x Super Bowl winner

 

[jmt57]

Kyle Arrington is a hall of famer, getting his jersey retired.

High school jersey, that is.