Friday's NFL statement

[Fencer]

I haven't read the thread, so apologies if this has been said before, but

• "Deliberate action" leaves room for sauna theories as well as for actual deflation.
• Trying to reconstruct the curve as to what temperature the balls were when would be difficult. Indeed I'd guess that the technology to do so doesn't reliably exist.
• Obviously, the NFL will look hard to see if somebody stuck a needle into a ball at an unauthorized time, but I'm guessing pretty strongly the Pats are innocent on that score.

If the balls were at any relevant time warmer than normal indoor air temperature, I think the Patriots will be penalized, probably with a harshness that will greatly annoy us. Otherwise I think they'll wind up in the clear.

 

[Big-T]

If the balls were at any relevant time warmer than normal indoor air temperature

Multiple amateurs have proven inflating a ball in a regular 70 Fahrenheit room then taking it outside (or put in the fridge) the ball will drop from 13 PSI to anywhere between 9-11.5 PSI. The Prof. from BC has also corroborated this by spelling out the basic level physics involved, just to back them up a bit more.

To get the effect the Patriots had, all they needed to do was intentionally/unintentionally inflate the Footballs in the equipment room or even the locker room.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

would the nfl go through the hiring of a forensic team if the drop in psi wasn't significant? Which leads to..why would they if they didn't know the starting psi of the balls? I'm in the camp that I doubt the refs used a gauge, but all this forensic crap doesn't make sense if they didn't know the starting psi.

If you're a liberal arts major who slept through HS science and took none in college you have NO CLUE that temperature affects pressure, that's why.

 

[TeamFirst]

Maybe the NFL is waiting on video that the Colts have in their possesion from taping the Pats signals during the game.

 

[BradyManny]

Note to NFL:

1) Find out how Patriots inflated their balls.
2) Find out how Colts inflated their balls.
3) Replicate. Let balls sit in 40F for several hours. See what happens.

 

[Fencer]

Multiple amateurs have proven inflating a ball in a regular 70 Fahrenheit room then taking it outside (or put in the fridge) the ball will drop from 13 PSI to anywhere between 9-11.5 PSI. The Prof. from BC has also corroborated this by spelling out the basic level physics involved, just to back them up a bit more.

To get the effect the Patriots had, all they needed to do was intentionally/unintentionally inflate the Footballs in the equipment room or even the locker room.

The numbers don't work as neatly for me. A normal course would take the ball from normal indoor temperatures to actual game time outdoor temperatures, a different of about 20 Farenheit. That accounts for a change of about 1 PSI, as per http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/guy-lussacs-law.1115479/ More than 1 PSI would be the result of, to use the NFL's phrase, "deliberate action", except that you have to add to that any reduction for the effect of the pressure being re-measured.

So if the Pats are completely innocent, some of the reporting details will turn out to have been wrong ... but that should shock nobody ...

By the way, wind chill is irrelevant here, except insofar as it affects how quickly the ball cools to the temperature of the surrounding air.

 

[Captain Cool]

So the league's statement says that the balls were inspected pre-game. That's vague. Why not state that they were measured with a gauge and found to be compliant? Aaron Rodgers hopes that they don't do this, which is why he likes the ball overinflated. There is so much out there that I thought some media idiot stated that the league did measure with a gauge, but why not be more specific in the statement? I guess just to drag it out more or they can't make that claim because it is untrue.

 

[Dr Pain]

So the league's statement says that the balls were inspected pre-game. That's vague. Why not state that they were measured with a gauge and found to be compliant? Aaron Rodgers hopes that they don't do this, which is why he likes the ball overinflated. There is so much out there that I thought some media idiot stated that the league did measure with a gauge, but why not be more specific in the statement? I guess just to drag it out more or they can't make that claim because it is untrue.

This is key and the wording "under-inflated" If air was taken out they would have been deflated but you can't call something deflated unless you know what the original inflation setting was. Lawyers wrote this and specific words are used for reasons. They are just hoping someone will fess up that they took air out. At this point I don't believe the Patriots did anything other than possibly submitting balls with low PSI just like Aaron Rogers does when he said he submits them over inflated. Reffs oked these and its on them. They can't penalize the Patriots with out doing the same to the Packers.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

How hard is it to win a slander case? Probably cost more than you would get from Brunell.

He can't go after the media. They're all protected. But, he could go after the NFL if they accuse him without proof. His livelihood depends on his reputation. As far as how much they'd get, they don't care. Brady and Bundchen have more money than Midas. It's the NFL that has its reputation at stake...and a bunch of cheap owners. Ironically, it might be Goodell's mishandling of this that does him in with the owners.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

If ****ing Ray Rice and Ndamukong Suh can win an appeals then this should be no problem for Brady.

It would be a lot more than an Appeal. He would be taking them to Court and filing a defamation suit.

 

[Big-T]

He can't go after the media. They're all protected.

Woah...that's a thing over there? You can't sue the press?

Celebs over here quite often win libel cases against newspapers (or get settlements at least).

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Note to NFL:

1) Find out how Patriots inflated their balls.
2) Find out how Colts inflated their balls.
3) Replicate. Let balls sit in 40F for several hours. See what happens.

you're 100% on target.

Unless they have a statement from one of the equipment managers or a video of a guy on the sideline sticking a needle in a ball and removing the air, they don't have a case. For every "expert" who says the balls couldn't have lost that much pressure in that much time, there is another "expert" who will say they could; all bought and paid for.
Brady's no fool. His advisers have the law suit drawn up and all ready to be delivered.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Woah...that's a thing over there? You can't sue the press?

Celebs over here quite often win libel cases against newspapers (or get settlements at least).

It's a lot harder. The words are carefully chosen.

But, the NFL doesn't enjoy that kind of protection, unless there is some blanket waiver in the standard contract. But, even if there is, Brady and Bundchen's pockets are deep enough that they could afford to test the validity of the waiver.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

This is key and the wording "under-inflated" If air was taken out they would have been deflated but you can't call something deflated unless you know what the original inflation setting was. Lawyers wrote this and specific words are used for reasons. They are just hoping someone will fess up that they took air out. At this point I don't believe the Patriots did anything other than possibly submitting balls with low PSI just like Aaron Rogers does when he said he submits them over inflated. Reffs oked these and its on them. They can't penalize the Patriots with out doing the same to the Packers.

That's right.
This is actually very simple (and why the NFL is dithering).

They either have the proof or they don't.
If they don't have the proof, they have to conclude that underinflated balls were put in play in the first half of the AFC championship game either because of Official's error or weather conditions or tampering. Since there is no evidence of tampering, they can't accuse Brady of doing it. But, that's what makes what BB and TB did so clever.

BB represents the team; he said they had nothing to do with it. He didn't throw Brady under the bus, but rather allowed him to put Goodell in an impossible position.

Meanwhile, Kraft sits back and says, "I dunno, ask my guys."

Quite brilliant.

 

[ChesBay]

This is key and the wording "under-inflated" If air was taken out they would have been deflated but you can't call something deflated unless you know what the original inflation setting was. Lawyers wrote this and specific words are used for reasons. They are just hoping someone will fess up that they took air out. At this point I don't believe the Patriots did anything other than possibly submitting balls with low PSI just like Aaron Rogers does when he said he submits them over inflated. Reffs oked these and its on them. They can't penalize the Patriots with out doing the same to the Packers.

This is what I have thought all along...which explains why BB and TB could put their careers on the line by saying what they said. Nowhere in the rules does it say that a team shall not submit a ball for inspection unless it meets those standards, it merely states what the standard is...and furthermore the rules go on to state that the referee only will be responsible for making that final determination, concerning whether those game balls meet the standard. And since I'm guessing the ball boy (or equipment manager?)...and a Patriot employee...was present for that inspection, the Patriots have already ascertained that the balls were never tested with a gauge. It was merely done with an informal assessment.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

This is what I have thought all along...which explains why BB and TB could put their careers on the line by saying what they said. Nowhere in the rules does it say that a team shall not submit a ball for inspection unless it meets those standards, it merely states what the standard is...and furthermore the rules go on to state that the referee only will be responsible for making that final determination, concerning whether those game balls meet the standard. And since I'm guessing the ball boy (or equipment manager?)...and a Patriot employee...was present for that inspection, the Patriots have already ascertained that the balls were never tested with a gauge. It was merely done with an informal assessment.

Very helpful and insightful. You should post more often.

 

[kennyb]

I believe Brady when he says he wouldn't break the rules and that he likes them 12.5.

Balls are played with all week. They are probably stored inside. Sunday the equipment manager gets the balls, which are room temperature, and checks them. In the warm air the pressure is up. He takes air out so it's 12.5 not realizing this will put the ball under pressure when the internal temp hits 45.

And wala. It is done.

Colts balls were sitting in the bowels of a bus. They don't have time to hit room temp although they warm up some. They test at 13 psi or so and then later on the field slightly less than that.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Woah...that's a thing over there? You can't sue the press?

Celebs over here quite often win libel cases against newspapers (or get settlements at least).

Has nothing to do with ability to sue the press. They don't have any special protections with respect to libel. It's that US libel law intentionally places the threshold significantly higher when the plaintiff is a "public figure" (and no one would ever try to argue that Brady, Belichick, etc. are not public figures). When the plaintiff is a public figure he has to prove by a preponderance of the evidence that the defendant outright knew the information was false or published it "with reckless disregard of whether it was false or not." Further, real opinions (as opposed to purported statements of fact dressed up like opinions) are not libelous, nor are true statements.

You might also be interested to know that the US has a specific law which prevents UK (and other) libel judgments from being enforced in the US if the defendant did not have at least much protection as US law would give him.

 

[Kdo5]

That's right.
This is actually very simple (and why the NFL is dithering).

They either have the proof or they don't.
If they don't have the proof, they have to conclude that underinflated balls were put in play in the first half of the AFC championship game either because of Official's error or weather conditions or tampering. Since there is no evidence of tampering, they can't accuse Brady of doing it. But, that's what makes what BB and TB did so clever.

BB represents the team; he said they had nothing to do with it. He didn't throw Brady under the bus, but rather allowed him to put Goodell in an impossible position.

Meanwhile, Kraft sits back and says, "I dunno, ask my guys."

Quite brilliant.

That is very plausible. If I could believe anything about this whole story, I think this is it.

 

[hwc]

Their equipment is on the underside of a bus en route from the hotel.

Were the Colts balls outside in other words, while the Patriots balls were inside.

Actually, I suspect their equipment was in an equipment truck that had left Indianapolis several days earlier and been outside in the cold for days.

If I recall, it was crazy cold on Friday/Saturday before the Sunday game.