Free agent splash? (rehashing the Julius Peppers rumor)

[capetide]

If Peppers is overrated, I'd hate to see what you think of our current OLBs. On the Pats Peppers would play 4-3 DE I would think. Just like Banta-Cain did. If they made the switch to 3-4 you could keep him at DE (like they did with Jarvis Green) or bring in someone else like Woods at OLB.

Maybe not overrated, but there is alot of buzz down there about Peppers inconsistent motivation and play. Don't know if that's because of the contract, but alot of people in Carolina are real critical of him.

 

[Patspsycho]

You addressed the communication errors in the previous post, but you did not address how that makes signing Peppers a bad idea. Please read my post on the previous page where I try to explain why he would help the defense, I'd like to know what you think.

First off, Peppers is a DE, not a 3-4 OLB. Even though he has expressed a desire to be OLB in a 3-4 he has no experience, so do we risk a huge salary on an experiment? Can he stand up? Does he have that quickness to play from stand up? He may have had that 5 years ago but certainly not now. Prototypical OLB are 250-265, lb. Peppers is 280. So the question here is, can generate the explosion from a stand up? He's also too light to play 3 point end in a 3-4.

Simply put, there are too many questions for someone who is entering his 9th season this fall, and is sure to demand a high salary.

 

[Patspsycho]

If Peppers is overrated, I'd hate to see what you think of our current OLBs. On the Pats Peppers would play 4-3 DE I would think. Just like Banta-Cain did. If they made the switch to 3-4 you could keep him at DE (like they did with Jarvis Green) or bring in someone else like Woods at OLB.

You could bring Peppers in as a 4-3 DE which he is, but that would make him a part time specialist because we use more 3-4 than 4-3. Is he worth the money we'd have to pay him?

 

[Urgent]

I think it will be a real Free Agent Ripple.

Take 200+ fourth/fifth year free agents out - the cream of the free agent pool. We've seen the list here.

Then give every team two tags. Take another 20-40 free agents out - this is guys like Vince Wilfork, DeMarcus Ware, Lofa Tatupu, etc.

Then take away the cap, making it easier for teams to retain their own free agents with those tags.

The number of players changing teams will plummet.

I looked at OLB types - not many out there other than Peppers. You are looking at Chike Okeafor, Kampman, a couple others. And none of them inject youth.

Teams are not going to find very many starters in free agency. ST, depth can be supported. The Pats, like other teams, are really going to have to focus on the draft.

 

[furley]

Preferably, the Patriots spend their free agency dollars wisely. If Peppers were younger, I'll say yes. But I'm more skeptical (or wary) than intrigued. I'd rather draft and develop a young defensive end/outside linebacker such as Sergio Kindle, Jason PierrePaul or Carlos Dunlap.

Still, Brady's a free agent after next season (2011) and will turn thirty-three before then. You've to try to win Super Bowls now while he's in his prime. However, is Peppers the answer? Perhaps, if you're going to spend on a perceived impact defensive player. Maybe, you spend on Karlos Dansby instead to aid Mayo at inside linebacker. Because the run defense needs help. Also, did Peppers play lackadaisical this season. I don't know, I would've thought he would've been more determined this season being in a contract year. I think he really fell off statistically in the second half or was inconsistent.

Carolina Panthers linebacker Jon Beason said Thursday he shouldn't have told a radio audience last week that he planned to talk to defensive end Julius Peppers about playing harder.

"After what happened, I realized I was wrong," Beason said during his weekly appearance on WFNZ (610 AM). "There are certain things you shouldn't say in public and certain things that should remain in-house. That's where I made my mistake."

Beason added that he decided not to talk to Peppers after receiving some negative reaction to his comments.

Beason: Comments out of bounds - CharlotteObserver.com

 

[Rob0729]

First off, Peppers is a DE, not a 3-4 OLB. Even though he has expressed a desire to be OLB in a 3-4 he has no experience, so do we risk a huge salary on an experiment? Can he stand up? Does he have that quickness to play from stand up? He may have had that 5 years ago but certainly not now. Prototypical OLB are 250-265, lb. Peppers is 280. So the question here is, can generate the explosion from a stand up? He's also too light to play 3 point end in a 3-4.

Simply put, there are too many questions for someone who is entering his 9th season this fall, and is sure to demand a high salary.

McGinest, Vrabel, Bruschi, Adalius Thomas, and Colvin were all converted DEs. Willie McGinest was 270-275lbs when he played here. Adalius Thomas is 270lbs. Belichick typically like DE types who are bigger than typical OLBs for his OLBs.

Now I do agree that he might be too expensive to take a risk, but I disagree with the notion he cannot make the conversion because of he is a DE and is big. I think he actually could have a career resurgence at OLB in a two gap 3-4. I just agree that if he is looking for top dollar, the downside of being wrong may outweight the benefits of being right.

 

[furley]

Moreover, do you want Randy Moss on defense. Peppers seems like Moss at times. He can play unmotivated... As said, that was evident this season.

 

[Patspsycho]

McGinest, Vrabel, Bruschi, Adalius Thomas, and Colvin were all converted DEs. Willie McGinest was 270-275lbs when he played here. Adalius Thomas is 270lbs. Belichick typically like DE types who are bigger than typical OLBs for his OLBs.

Now I do agree that he might be too expensive to take a risk, but I disagree with the notion he cannot make the conversion because of he is a DE and is big. I think he actually could have a career resurgence at OLB in a two gap 3-4. I just agree that if he is looking for top dollar, the downside of being wrong may outweight the benefits of being right.

Five years ago I would have gone for it, but at this point in his career and with the dollar amount he is sure to ask for... it just is too much of a risk. Like I said, just too many questions.

 

[Rob0729]

Five years ago I would have gone for it, but at this point in his career and with the dollar amount he is sure to ask for... it just is too much of a risk. Like I said, just too many questions.

Well, we don't know if his price is going to be nearly as high as many expect. We also don't know if there is a cap or not. If there is no cap and the Pats take most of the money this year and Kraft doesn't mind paying it, why should we care? It is like Red Sox fans crying about the money the Red Sox spends on players when typically it doesn't stop them from making other moves.

 

[Shockt327]

You're funny.

You want examples? Okay, let's look at the Saints game where we had our worst breakdowns, where the D had it's worse game of the year. Sometimes you need the all-22 to diagnose the breakdowns, other times, especially in the RZ you don't.

Two communication breakdowns come to mind that I spot right away, I don't remember the plays correctly so I am probably whiffing on some details here and there, but you get the general idea.

1) On one play Brees set up in 2x2 with TE fake motion and release into short post, our D was in zone under, man over, fake zone with intent to go man 2 coverage, and Wilhite checked into fake man press (LOS) with intent to strong-side blitz, but there was a communication breakdown because Brees sold a hard left slant to TE(forgot who?) which Meriweather gambled on and broke off hard right. However he did not realized that Wilhite had checked into blitz option and had already left the X slot leaving Meacham (?) (Henderson?) open. So Meacham or Henderson sails in for a really wide open TD. As the under FS, Meriweather is responsible for picking up Wilhite's coverage when he checks into blitz. That is a communication breakdown. Whose fault is it? Interestingly enough it does start with Mayo who as the mike is responsible for audibling third line packages.

1) I'm going to call BS on this post. You are trying to dazzle us by throwing out as much detailed jargon as you can to hide the fact that you are making some pretty big assumptions. Its pretty obvious when you attempt to get into technical minutiae - yet get the broad strokes of the play completely wrong. The only thing you seem to remember correctly is that Merriweather blew it. Yet, anyone who paid attention to the game could tell you that because it was pretty much the biggest highlight of the game. Even if your breakdown is spot on (it isn't); giving a dazzling breakdown of two plays does not excuse the fact that it's two plays. Out of 1000. You are making assumptions based on limited info. Also, those plays you are referencing were shown over and over. I know the Merriweather play because every analysis went over it from multiple angles. That's not the case with every other play on a standard TV broadcast. So I stand by my point, you do not know if the Pats are having communication problems because the overwhelming majority of the time you cannot see the secondary.

2) So the play fails because of communication? I disagree. Merriweather simply did not carry out his deep middle assignment. He got caught peeking into the backfield, and when Bress pump faked Merriweather totally went for it and Henderson flew right by him. What do I think happened? It's actually a pretty standard zone-blitz scheme, with a pretty conservative cover-3 zone behind it; as most zone blitzes use. The Patriots use a 3/3/5 Nickel package. However, Bill disguises it by having TBC line up where you'd expect a DT. So it looks like a 4 man line consisting of Burgess, Wright, TBC, and Pryor at DE. OLB Guyton is lined up over the TE. Mayo is at MLB. The outside CBs are playing 7 yards off, Whilite (NB) appears to be playing bump-and-run. Both the safeties are in a two-deep alignment, before the snap.

So, what makes me assume the play is what I say it is (Cover3 Zone Blitz)?

• On a CB blitz with man coverage behind it, you can usually expect to see one of the safeties cheat over before the snap to pick up the uncovered reciever. That doesn't happen. Before the snap Merriweather actually moves a step backwards (I'm, assuming to sell it being a Cover-2). So up top we have the two CBs and Merriweather each playing 1/3 of the field.
• The alignment of the two CBs in coverage: They are both playing off their man, with an inside leverage with their hips opened up towards the QB and they are reading the QBs and are pattern reading. This isn't a man coverage technique. This is pretty standard for a cover-3 though. They want to force the WRs to go outside - and hopefully give the QB a narrow lane between the defender and the sideline - because they know there are holes in the underneath zone in the middle of the field because of the blitz.
• James Sanders immediatley covers the flat on the side where Guyton blitzed from. Why? Because most QBs are taught - when seeing a blitz - try to hit a receiver from the spot where the defense just left. Zone blitzes counter this strategy; they often send safeties (who are good in coverage) in that vacated zone. So Guyton leaves, and Sanders enters. Mayo cheats to his left to cover the hook zone. TBC takes one step in like he's rushing the passer, and bails out to cover the adjacent hook zone.
• So we have 3 deep, 3 underneath, and 5 rushing the passer - pretty standard zone blitz configuration. I really don't think it has anything to do with communication. There was no motion on the play, so the breakdown wasn't caused by confusion over the offensive formation or strength (or Mayo's inability to communicate the defensive call). Even if Merriweather assumed Whilite was not blitzing (which I don't think was the case), Whilite would have been playing underneath in the flat or a hook zone and Merriweather's assignment still shouldn't have changed. He simply decided to do a bit of freelancing and got burned. That's why the play failed.

3) Oh, I almost forgot. Do you know why Merriweather bit on the pump fake? Do you know why he wasn't expecting Bress to go deep? Do you know why he was willing to gamble? IT WAS BECAUSE HE EXPECTED THE BLITZ TO PRESSURE THE QB AND FORCE A QUICK THROW. That's why he jumped early. Sure he messed up, but it was a calculated gamble. If the QB has enough time to pump fake and hit another man, then a zone blitz is going to fail even if everyone carries out their assignment. Zone blitzes are not meant to hold for more than a few seconds. The whole concept is built on the the QB being forced to get rid of the ball ASAP. Yet this didn't happen BECAUSE THERE WAS NO PRESSURE. Why was there no pressure? Because THERE ARE NO LEGIT PASS RUSHERS ON THIS TEAM. None. Zero. Zip. Zlich. Nada. This is why it is absolutley ridiculous to say that pass rushers are over rated and scheme is more important. If you don't have talent then you simply cannot run certain schemes. This play perfectly illustrates this. You've unintentionally proven my point. To bring it full circle, this is why the Pats need a guy like Julius Peppers or another legit pass rusher. As soon a Brees turns to look for Henderson, he should have been knocked into next week. That didn't happen. The Pats have no one who gives them that ability. That's why the team needs a guy who can rush the QB.

 

[patsinthesnow]

The pass rush will come from the draft, not free agency. Plus like other said above, the pats won't get any younger that way. With aggressiveness in trading up, the pats Linebacking core could look like this:

Tully Banta-Cain Jerod Mayo Rolando McClain Sergio Kindle/Witherspoon

 

[upstater1]

I'd like to take a closer look at Brandon Spikes.

Trade down, land Spikes and a WR.

Is Spikes decent?

 

[patsinthesnow]

I'd like to take a closer look at Brandon Spikes.

Trade down, land Spikes and a WR.

Is Spikes decent?

I went googling and based on what I read it seems McClain is better out of the two, but not by much.

McClain seems to be a top 10-15 talent, while Spikes is a 25-30 talent.

So if you wanted McClain, you would have to sacrifice that last 2nd rd pick to trade up, which could end up being a WR.

 

[carolinatony]

I'd gladly have Peppers. I would be concerned about salary commitment and attitude. I've heard rumblings out of Carolina that he can be a bit of a malcontent. Don't know if it's true or not.

I wouldn't say he is a malcontent. He is very quite and keeps to himself. His teamates say he doesn't speak much in the locker.
He can take over a few games a year by himself and look great and than go for games where he is invisable.
Not worth the gamble imo.

 

[Brono]

There are some great contributions in this thread. Keep it up!

 

[Patspsycho]

[*]The alignment of the two CBs in coverage: They are both playing off their man, with an inside leverage with their hips opened up towards the QB and they are reading the QBs and are pattern reading. This isn't a man coverage technique.

So they're going to betray man coverage by playing with closed hips? They can easily disguise with their hips and change at the snap.

3) Oh, I almost forgot. Do you know why Merriweather bit on the pump fake? Do you know why he wasn't expecting Bress to go deep? Do you know why he was willing to gamble? IT WAS BECAUSE HE EXPECTED THE BLITZ TO PRESSURE THE QB AND FORCE A QUICK THROW.

My argument against that is- I will ask you that in the form of a question is, that if that was his mindset, then he must be oblivious to the big fact that his team can't rush or blitz worth ****? Is BB so dense that it doesn't matter if you have non-existent pass-rushing, if you tried it often enough, something must happen?

That's why he jumped early. Sure he messed up, but it was a calculated gamble. If the QB has enough time to pump fake and hit another man, then a zone blitz is going to fail even if everyone carries out their assignment. Zone blitzes are not meant to hold for more than a few seconds.


Even then, those few seconds are still an infinity in an NFL game, and someone should have picked up the free man. You know that BB doesn't gamble so recklessly.. there's always a safety valve- there's always a pickup should the first line break down. Also Wilhite doesn't do a good job firing off the snap. Shockey picks him up easily. Shouldn't someone have diagnosed that?


The whole concept is built on the the QB being forced to get rid of the ball ASAP. Yet this didn't happen BECAUSE THERE WAS NO PRESSURE. Why was there no pressure? Because THERE ARE NO LEGIT PASS RUSHERS ON THIS TEAM. None. Zero. Zip. Zlich. Nada. This is why it is absolutley ridiculous to say that pass rushers are over rated and scheme is more important.

I never said pass-rushers are overrated, I said 3-4 OLB as pass-rushers are overrated, and then I said see Cowboys vs. Saints. The Cowboys beat the Saints because they turned the Saints D philosophy on its head and put it right back onto the Saints by rushing their front 4 every time. I do agree we are sorely in need of pass-rushing, but it doesn't necessarily have to be a 3-4 OLB that's going to be our savior

[/QUOTE]

I want to emphasize that I am not here to see who's right and who's wrong. I am here to discuss football. I will continue to argue my point of view unless I am proven to be completely wrong.

However I was irresponsible not to verify by video, and will do that from now on.

 

[Patspsycho]

It looks like my post was too long, or something happened where it got chopped off. I will try to rewrite the missing half later tonight.

 

[NEfan32]

Go after Brandon Marshall/Anquan Boldin
Sign Peppers
Sign Bulluck
Sign Taylor
Resign Faulk, Mankins, Bodden, Wilfork

 

[glm]

Free Agents that interst me:

Arizona:
-Steve Breaston, WR (RFA)
-Karlos Dansby, ILB (UFA)

Atlanta:
-Jerious Norwood, RB (RFA)
-Jason Snelling, RB (RFA)

Baltimore:
-Le'Ron McClain, FB/RB (RFA)
-Derrick Mason, WR (UFA)
-Kelley Washington, WR (UFA) ()
-Dawan Landry, SS (RFA)

Bills:
-Lee Evans, WR (UFA)
-Terrell Owens, WR (UFA)
-Josh Reed, WR (UFA)
-Kyle Williams, DT (RFA)

Carolina:
-Mushin Muhammed, WR (UFA)
-Thomas Davis, ILB (RFA)
- Julius Peppers, DE (UFA)

Chicago:
-Nick Roach, ILB (RFA)
-Jamar Williams, ILB (RFA)

Cincinnati:
-None

Cleveland:
-Jerome Harrison, RB (RFA)
-D'Qwell Jackson, ILB (RFA)

Dallas:
-Miles Austin, WR (RFA)
-Stephen Bowen, DL (RFA)
-Jason Hatcher, DL (RFA)
-DeMarcus Ware, OLB (RFA)
-Terence Newman, CB (UFA)

Denver:
-Brandon Marshall, WR (RFA)
-Tony Scheffler, TE (RFA)
-Elvis Dumerville, OLB (RFA)

Detroit:
-None

Green Bay:
-Aaron Kampman, OLB (UFA)
-Atari Bigby, SS (RFA)
-Nick Collins, FS (RFA)

Houston:
-Kevin Walter, WR (UFA)
-Owen Daniels, TE (RFA)
-DeMeco Ryans, ILB (RFA)

Indianapolis:
-Dallas Clark TE (UFA)
-Marlin Jackson, CB (RFA)

Jacksonville:
-None

Kansas City:
-Mike Vrabel, OLB (UFA) ()

Miami:
-Ronnie Brown, RB (RFA)
-Ricky Williams, RB (UFA)
-Davone Bess, WR (RFA)
-Anthany Fasano, TE (RFA)
-Jason Taylor, OLB (UFA)

Minnesota:
-Chester Taylor, RB (UFA)
-Ray Edwards, OLB (RFA)
-Antoine Winfield, CB (UFA)

New Orleans:
-Mike Bell, RB (RFA)
-Pierre Thomas, RB (RFA)
-Lance Moore, WR (RFA)
-Will Smith, OLB (UFA)
-Scott Fujita, ILB (UFA)
-Roman Harper, SS (RFA)
-Darren Sharper, FS (UFA)

N.Y. Giants:
-Domenik Hixon, WR (RFA)
-Corey Webster, CB (RFA)

N.Y. Jest:
-Leon Washington, RB (RFA)
-Braylon Edwards, WR (RFA)

Oakland:
-Kirk Morrison, ILB (RFA)

Philadelphia:
-Jason Avant, WR (RFA)
-Chris Gocong, ILB (RFA)

Pittsburgh:
-James Harrison, OLB (UFA)

San Diego:
-Darren Sproles, RB (RFA)
-Malcolm Floyd, WR (RFA)
-Vincent Jackson, WR (RFA)
-Shawne Merriman, OLB (UFA)

San Francisco:
-None

Seattle:
-None

St. Louis:
-Leonard Little, OLB (UFA)

Tampa Bay:
-Antonio Bryant, WR (UFA)
-Barrett Ruud, ILB (RFA)

Tennessee:
-Bo Scaife, TE (RFA)
-Kyle Vanden Bosch, OLB (UFA)
-Keith Bullock, ILB (UFA)
-Nick Harper, CB (UFA)

Wshington:
-None

 

[makoute]

The Cowboys re-signed D Ware a long time ago. James Harrison of the Steelers was re-signed too. You can take Ricky Williams Dolphins off that list too.