Fox/NFL Outsiders rank backfields - Pats #10

[PatsRI]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5776936


10. New England

A banged-up Corey Dillon who missed four games and came off the bench in two others was still worth over 20 points above replacement level. With first-round pick Laurence Maroney available this year to spell the aging Dillon, the Patriots shouldn't have to go so far down the depth chart that the backup fullback gets over 50 carries again. Even though he'll be 32 at midseason, Dillon should be healthy and effective enough, when paired with Maroney, to allow Kevin Faulk to return to his proper role as third-down back. That, in turn, will help Faulk rebound from the third-worst rushing DVOA in the league last year.

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This is how they come up with thier rankings:

These rankings started with the productivity of each team's halfbacks in 2005 and then were adjusted subjectively for things like age (the cruel reality of the NFL, especially for running backs), the quality of fullbacks, and the likelihood of improvement or decline. Teams like the Giants, Falcons and Cardinals (including Edgerrin James) would top the charts based on last year, but they all rely heavily on aging backs likely to pull either a Curtis Martin — an injury-plagued season after a career year at age 31 — or a Marshall Faulk — a slow decline after a consistently productive career. The teams that top the rankings below have great starting backs who are relatively young and durable, with good players available behind them — and ideally great fullbacks in front of them. You'll see a lot of stats you recognize here, and a couple you may not: DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement, and DVOA, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Both stats take every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent, rewarding players for strong performance on third down and in the red zone and giving them less credit for meaningless gains like a nine-yard catch on third-and-12. The difference: More DPAR means a running back with more total value, while a higher DVOA means a running back with more value per play. This page lists these advanced stats for all running backs in 2005, both rushing and receiving.

AFC East:
Pats #10
Miami #18
Buf #20
Jets dead last

 

[shakadave]

Great read!

Required reading here!

 

[zippo59]

They tank the Colts at 26 and the blurb about them is less than positive.

26. Indianapolis

It's one thing to bring in a rookie running back and then design a system around him, like Reggie Bush in New Orleans. It's quite another to bring in a rookie running back, ask him to replace the second-most productive back in football, and require him to fully assimilate a complex, one-back offense using a lot of no-huddle. Joseph Addai has his work cut out for him. One of Edgerrin James' most underrated skills in the Colts offense was his ability to identify and pick up the blitz, which enabled him to stay on the field almost every down.

To the extent Addai can internalize his blocking assignments and learn to read Peyton Manning's chicken dance, he'll enable the offense to run like the well-oiled machine it has been. When he doesn't know what he's doing, markedly less athletic players like Dominic Rhodes and James Mungro will have to come in. That throttles down the offense, and it forces the Colts to huddle to make substitutions when Manning and the coaches may prefer to keep the pressure and pace up. And you know what that means: that patented Peyton Manning bitter beer face. No one wants to see that.