FOURTEEN Million of free agency money

[Deus Irae]

Do you think we can sign all of those players and keep Welker?

Draft the safety in round 1
Re-sign Arrington if his number is reasonable

That gives a safety who should be starter level by the end of the season, and a guy who can play the slot CB, and the money involved should be relatively minimal.

Coverage LB will depend upon what's available in free agency, but it shouldn't come at any significant cost in a season where more teams are switching to the 3-4 than the 4-3, and smaller cover-type LBs should spring free as a result. There's also about $3million that can be freed up if the team decides to restructure Mankins' deal.

CB1 and Welker should be the only two major expenses the team needs this offseason, since I'm not looking to break the bank to keep Vollmer. That's doable.

 

[supafly]

Some thoughts come to mind
The Bengals have hit on their defensive drafted players with a very high percentage
I'm curious if that is the coaches picks or personel department.
When you look at overall how young and cheap our defense is, the fact we've missed on defensive talent in past drafts so they never reach their second contract with the team it makes sense.
I'm scared to pay Talib elite money with his injury concerns. What about Keenan Lewis from Pittsburgh.
You could pry get him for 5 mill a year he has gotten better every year.
No off field baggage that we know of has very little turnovers but that's due to the fact he wasn't targeted or picked on much.
Is the same age as Talib and fits the 6ft long arms mentality he isn't as athletic but he plays more physical.
In a perfect world we would see Dowling take the next step stay healthy and become that number 1 number 2 defensive back w have been hoping for.
I think we gave up on Butler to early.

Interesting thoughts on Cincy's draft choices and their success on defense despite not spending too much money.

As far as Keenan Lewis, he is also somewhat of a gamble in my opinion, although many here would like the move very much. We could potentially hit on that up and coming secondary player for the future, or he could also be a Laurant Robinson part II at a different position...one decent year and an overpaid contract that isn't close to what his production will be.

I had the unfortunate displeasure of watching the majority of PIT games when they didn't play at the same time as the NEP did, and I can honestly say that I'm not exactly sure how much I agree with your statement that he's progressed every year, aside from the fact that he's seen increased reps which obviously bodes well for your point. I saw a player step up nicely in the second half of this season, but it's still hard to get a true feeling on his value moving forward.

It will be interesting to see how the Steelers front office approaches Lewis, because we all know that they surely aren't in the position to let any affordable young talent walk away, specifically on that side of the ball.

It also should be noted that Lewis' twitter account has him stating that "he was very pleased with what he'd heard from the team about his future in Pittsburgh," so that may also be a hint as to their plans in trying to retain him.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Interesting thoughts on Cincy's draft choices and their success on defense despite not spending too much money.

As far as Keenan Lewis, he is also somewhat of a gamble in my opinion, although many here would like the move very much. We could potentially hit on that up and coming secondary player for the future, or he could also be a Laurant Robinson part II at a different position...one decent year and an overpaid contract that isn't close to what his production will be.

I had the unfortunate displeasure of watching the majority of PIT games when they didn't play at the same time as the NEP did, and I can honestly say that I'm not exactly sure how much I agree with your statement that he's progressed every year, aside from the fact that he's seen increased reps which obviously bodes well for your point. I saw a player step up nicely in the second half of this season, but it's still hard to get a true feeling on his value moving forward.

It will be interesting to see how the Steelers front office approaches Lewis, because we all know that they surely aren't in the position to let any affordable young talent walk away, specifically on that side of the ball.

It also should be noted that Lewis' twitter account has him stating that "he was very pleased with what he'd heard from the team about his future in Pittsburgh," so that may also be a hint as to their plans in trying to retain him.

Wow I had no idea that Pitt could retain him yeah sounds like they will.
Well besides the dback from jac looks like back to the talib drawing board

 

[grux]

Draft the safety in round 1
Re-sign Arrington if his number is reasonable

That gives a safety who should be starter level by the end of the season, and a guy who can play the slot CB, and the money involved should be relatively minimal.

Coverage LB will depend upon what's available in free agency, but it shouldn't come at any significant cost in a season where more teams are switching to the 3-4 than the 4-3, and smaller cover-type LBs should spring free as a result. There's also about $3million that can be freed up if the team decides to restructure Mankins' deal.

CB1 and Welker should be the only two major expenses the team needs this offseason, since I'm not looking to break the bank to keep Vollmer. That's doable.

Sounds like a good plan. It will be interesting to see what BB and co have in mind.

 

[supafly]

Wow I had no idea that Pitt could retain him yeah sounds like they will.
Well besides the dback from jac looks like back to the talib drawing board

Well you're certainly correct in saying that he's one of the choices that could possibly replace Talib, and nothing is written in stone as far as Pittsburgh being able to afford him, but my personal guess is that he stays there. Of course that doesn't mean anything.

I think they drafted two recent higher round CBs if I'm not mistaken, so they very well could decide to pass if the price is too steep, although that may also be a hint as to what they think of him too. I know that they aren't in great cap shape at the moment, so that will factor into things.

It's a tough call, this FA stuff. Lots of options.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Draft the safety in round 1
Re-sign Arrington if his number is reasonable

That gives a safety who should be starter level by the end of the season, and a guy who can play the slot CB, and the money involved should be relatively minimal.

Coverage LB will depend upon what's available in free agency, but it shouldn't come at any significant cost in a season where more teams are switching to the 3-4 than the 4-3, and smaller cover-type LBs should spring free as a result. There's also about $3million that can be freed up if the team decides to restructure Mankins' deal.

CB1 and Welker should be the only two major expenses the team needs this offseason, since I'm not looking to break the bank to keep Vollmer. That's doable.

An aside. My niece & her husband were just in Puerto Rico with Herr Vollmer. Clueless as she is about his situation, he was in the airport telling her he had to catch a flight back for an important Wednesday meeting. Nothing like information that informs nothing.

 

[mgteich]

DI'S plan is a solid one. Now all that needs to happen is for Welker and the team to come to terms, and for us to secure a dependable top corner in free agency (thought competitive bidding).

Sounds like a good plan. It will be interesting to see what BB and co have in mind.

 

[patfanken]

I'm surprise how shallow people's thoughts are about Tavon Wilson, and how so many have written him off already as being a productive starter, even after a fairly productive rookie season and despite the fact he was playing a relatively new position. Safeties usually DON'T come in and start right away. Rodney Harrison didn't start a single game in SD until his THIRD year in the league. So I guess all the personnel "experts" here would have dismissed one of the best Safeties in Pats history because he didn't make an "instant impact" for a few years.

 

[supafly]

I'm surprise how shallow people's thoughts are about Tavon Wilson, and how so many have written him off already as being a productive starter, even after a fairly productive rookie season and despite the fact he was playing a relatively new position. Safeties usually DON'T come in and start right away. Rodney Harrison didn't start a single game in SD until his THIRD year in the league. So I guess all the personnel "experts" here would have dismissed one of the best Safeties in Pats history because he didn't make an "instant impact" for a few years.

There were a handful of rookies who saw valuable reps, actually more reps than I would have initially guessed at the beginning of the year. All of Dennard, Wilson, Jones, and Hightower (and even Francis) all received some great opportunities due to one reason or another. I think that bodes well for their potential for the future as young prospects.

As for Wilson personally, I agree with you that he showed more than some are giving him credit for. The problem was that he made those 2 huge mistakes in back to back weeks (SEA, STL) on the long TD passes that quickly put him in BB's doghouse for awhile, and that is likely what most remember when thinking of him.

I think that he rebounded in a decent fashion when given the dime back/TE specialty role later in the season though, so it was good to see him get another chance in that regard.

I wouldn't even think of writing him off, as you said it's just not fair to try and judge his future based on his first year here. There were things that he did which looked good, and things he did which screamed "green," much like most rookies. I don't think that any of us saw exceptional talent, but I also don't think there's any reason not to include him in the future for one of the prospects who could make a nice jump in the next 1-2 seasons.

I'd have him as the #3 or #4 safety right now behind McCourty and either a FA signing or a higher round draft pick, but Belichick may feel differently. Either way, I think we'll see a lot of him moving forward, so he should have his opportunity to prove himself in the next year or so. The position itself has the potential to be the deepest that we've seen in awhile though, especially if we can get a nice starting caliber safety opposite of McCourty (who is the 'real' reason that the secondary improved last year...not Talib).

Good point about playing time though, as even Meriweather as a 1st rd draft pick was blended in a lot slower in the 2007 season. Of course an argument could be made to the level of competition in front of him that year too though. I don't think that Wilson quite lived up to any 2nd rd statuses just yet, but if he'd have been a 4th or 5th rounder many would be high on him. It's unfortunate sometimes that the judgment happens like that, but many have high expectations for those 2nd rounders.

 

[Fencer]

8. Here's a last minute thought. The Pats load up for a 2 year run. Win 2 more Lombardi's then dump Brady's back loaded contract in big trade to the new LA franchise, where he can go home and put fannies in the seats of that new stadium. Meanwhile the Pats create a lot of cap room, and greatly minimizes the impact of the deals they made in 2013 and pick up a couple of picks besides. How's THAT for wishful thinking.

Tough to make that work in cap mechanics. The whole point of back-loading is to "pay" guys less than they're worth in the early years, then "pay" them more in the later. But to do that, you pay or guarantee the money up front, while postponing the cap charge to later years. And when the later years come around, if you trade the guy, you don't offload the reshuffled money; you just offload his true, new previously unguaranteed pay.

 

[Fencer]

It's not a ponzi scheme. It's an accounting tool relative to the cap. As long as this league doesn't fully guarantee contracts, the backend is almost meaningless. Teams who get in trouble generally do so via restructure or investing in crap like the Jets did with Sanchez and guaranteeing mediocre talent money it's not remotely worth.

A completely unguaranteed contract is a costless set of options for a team to hire a player each year at a predetermined amount of money.

A partially guaranteed contract is pretty close to being the same thing, except that now there's a cost to the options. Hopefully the cost of the option plus the optional salary will be somewhat lower than the player's true value, so that the team makes a "profit" on the deal if it exercises the option (to offset the loss it takes if it doesn't exercise the option).

Cap dollars tend to be back-end loaded more than a player's true value even under ordinary long-term (non-rookie) contracts. Why? Because if cash flows over the life of the contract are kind of even, and guaranteed money is paid early in the deal -- both of which are fairly normal contract terms -- that's how it happens to work out. Contracts that are deliberately back-end loaded might have an ever greater skew.

Yes, it would make more sense to think about salaries as a percentage of the cap than as absolute numbers. But as long as the cap grows slowly, that's a distinction without much of a difference.

 

[captain stone]

An aside. My niece & her husband were just in Puerto Rico with Herr Vollmer. Clueless as she is about his situation, he was in the airport telling her he had to catch a flight back for an important Wednesday meeting. Nothing like information that informs nothing.

Could that meeting be with his agent & the Pats...or a back specialist?

 

[patfanken]

The problem was that he made those 2 huge mistakes in back to back weeks (SEA, STL) on the long TD passes that quickly put him in BB's doghouse for awhile, and that is likely what most remember when thinking of him.

Less BB's doghouse and more "our" doghouse. Its some very vocal people here who are the ones who haven't forgiven him for 2 rookie mistakes very early in the season. The fact that he surpassed Chung on the depth chart would make one think that he's progressed well for a rookie playing out of his college position.
.

I'd have him as the #3 or #4 safety right now behind McCourty and either a FA signing or a higher round draft pick, but Belichick may feel differently. Either way, I think we'll see a lot of him moving forward, so he should have his opportunity to prove himself in the next year or so. The position itself has the potential to be the deepest that we've seen in awhile though, especially if we can get a nice starting caliber safety opposite of McCourty (who is the 'real' reason that the secondary improved last year...not Talib)

Those are all the big questions this off season. McCourty might be a S next season, but its certainly not a lock. It could be the Pats might decide that it might be better for the team and the cap to sign a FA Safety rather than Talib or some other high priced CB, and move McCourty back to CB. Its clear to me that the Pats staff view McCourty's CB skills a lot higher than the "experts" here, so its not out of the question. This is especially possible given the strength and depth of the safety draft class.

Good point about playing time though, as even Meriweather as a 1st rd draft pick was blended in a lot slower in the 2007 season. Of course an argument could be made to the level of competition in front of him that year too though. I don't think that Wilson quite lived up to any 2nd rd statuses just yet, but if he'd have been a 4th or 5th rounder many would be high on him. It's unfortunate sometimes that the judgment happens like that, but many have high expectations for those 2nd rounders.

Interesting that you mention Wilson, his regression rivals that of Chung's. Hard to figure why both these players had better years at the start of their careers than the end of them. I think people sometimes forget that when they say playing football here is a very demanding job. Its truly not for everybody. Good players like Ocho couldn't do it, even Great players like Moss couldn't for the long haul, so its not a stretch to think that even talented players like Merriweather and Chung etc might fail to progress over time, and even regress, while a no name guy who wasn't even a JAG, like Ninko can come here and thrive and get better every year. Curious.

Your other point is well made. Sometimes players DO become victims of their draft positions. A guy like Cunningham would be considered a valuable asset as a 5th round pick, is somehow considered a bust as a 2nd. BTW- That's another guy who I think is going to surprise a lot of the "experts" here.

 

[supafly]

Interesting that you mention Wilson, his regression rivals that of Chung's. Hard to figure why both these players had better years at the start of their careers than the end of them.

Your other point is well made. Sometimes players DO become victims of their draft positions. A guy like Cunningham would be considered a valuable asset as a 5th round pick, is somehow considered a bust as a 2nd. BTW- That's another guy who I think is going to surprise a lot of the "experts" here.

I was actually still referring to Tavon Wilson, Ken, not Eugene Wilson. I just meant that he may not have lived up to his high 2nd round billing last year, but that doesn't mean that he isn't something of a definite prospect in the next 1-2 yrs either. Like I said, he certainly saw more reps than I expected due to certain circumstances, so maybe that will help him more moving forward.

Unfortunately, that often comes with the territory..If Tavon Wilson had been a 3rd or 4th round pick instead of a 2nd, then some people would feel more optimistic about his rookie year.

I am excited about him to be honest, actually I'm excited about all of the 5 rookies that I listed for one reason or another. I think we'll know a lot more about Tavon Wilson's potential after the 2013 season, but you are correct in pointing out that there were some good things that he did, especially when considering that he was an extremely green rookie. Hopefully he also works out some of the bad things and continues to progress.

 

[patfanken]

I was actually still referring to Tavon Wilson, Ken, not Eugene Wilson. I just meant that he may not have lived up to his high 2nd round billing last year, but that doesn't mean that he isn't something of a definite prospect in the next 1-2 yrs either. Like I said, he certainly saw more reps than I expected due to certain circumstances, so maybe that will help him more moving forward.

Ooops, Wrong Wilson. But you and I are on the same page with Tavon. But I do think you overstate when you say he was a "high 2nd round pick". As the 16th pick of that round, Wilson is literally the definition of a mid round pick. But I digress.....AND nitpick. The point being that there were a few 2nd round picks that were outstanding like LDavid and BWagner and JJenkins, most of those picks had years like Wilson's, with some flashes of great play and bad play, while getting eased into more responsible situations. The true nature of their careers still a question mark.

 

[supafly]

Ooops, Wrong Wilson. But you and I are on the same page with Tavon. But I do think you overstate when you say he was a "high 2nd round pick". As the 16th pick of that round, Wilson is literally the definition of a mid round pick. But I digress.....AND nitpick. The point being that there were a few 2nd round picks that were outstanding like LDavid and BWagner and JJenkins, most of those picks had years like Wilson's, with some flashes of great play and bad play, while getting eased into more responsible situations. The true nature of their careers still a question mark.

My wording wasn't really clear, but when I say "high 2nd round pick" I am using the term "high" in terms of the draft.

In other words I would consider just about every 1st/2nd rounder as "high picks," not necessarily differentiating where he specifically went in that round.

I absolutely agree that he is still much of a work in progress and that he could potentially end up being a great selection. We should know a lot more about his talent level and smarts in the next upcoming year and hopefully there is continued progression from him.

I think he has the potential to beat out Gregory for the #3 spot (assuming that the #2 goes to either a FA or high round draft pick who starts immediately), but in a worst case situation he should still continue to see the dime back/TE specialty role. If they don't add a FA this offseason and Wilson has a good camp, he could even start opposite of McCourty. Lots of options for sure, and he should be a part of the 'developing' players from last year.

 

[nzahir]

Latest Salary Cap Breakdown for New England Patriots | Bleacher Report This article shows where we stand, and maybe how the pats can save money through cuts.
I think the pats should let go of lloyd-saves 4.5
Let go of gregory-2.18
Let go of connoly-3.33; Now the pats have 29.7 mil
I think the pats should sign edelmen for about 1.5 mil this year, talib for like 6.5 mil this year, volmer, for like 6.5 this year, mike wallace or bowe for like 8-10 mil this year. Then maybe if the pats can sign a guy like osi(or a good de) for a year
for 2-3 mil. Then the rest of the money goes toward cheap guys for depth and the draft.
In the draft the pats would still need a ss(a lot of them in the draft), a guard, dtackle depth and wr depth.

 

[Sciz]

I think the pats should let go of lloyd-saves 4.5
Let go of gregory-2.18
Let go of connoly-3.33;

These are the cap hits if the players stay on the team. The money saved by releasing them is less.

 

[nzahir]

Also the pats can go after titus young, if very cheap for depth. And the pats should also try to draft the honey badger late to repleace arrington in the slot

 

[nzahir]

These are the cap hits if the players stay on the team. The money saved by releasing them is less.

What about lloyd, isnt it a team option?