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FOURTEEN Million of free agency money

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mgteich, Feb 10, 2013.

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  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    After allowing for bonuses earned, this year's rookie and workout bonuses, we have fourteen million available per Jason.

    There will future costs that could be paid for by a late cut or two and/or a restructure or two: Player 52 and 53, the Practice Squad, IR players and their replacements (in camp or in season). We need not worry about this now since we have a method of paying for this in August.

    There is precious little additional sources of revenue. For example, we could save a million by cutting Fells now, but it seems better to have the camp competition.

    Since players replace a player already on the roster, we should consider only net costs, with a player considered to be replacing a $500K player on the roster. Minimum salary vets don't add much cost at all. We will likely add our usual dozen.

    ======
    LASER FOCUS FOURTEEN MILLION FOR FREE AGENCY
    As of now, we are losing players at every position (a normal situation). Who would you use precious free agency money to keep? How would you allocate our free agency money. Remember you have only fourteen million to spend on re-signings AND on free agencts from other teams.

    As a final caution, I would note that the cap next year is very tight. Pushing a lot of money into next year is not a good idea. It is not at all clear when the nfl will see the next major raise in the cap.

    I would also note that we are not choosing a final roster, just who to bring into camp.
    =====================
    OUR FREE AGENTS
    RB Woodhead
    WR Welker, Edelman, Branch, Stallworth
    TE Hooman (RFA)
    OL Vollmer, Thomas
    DL Scott, Brace, Harrison
    LB Koutouvides, White
    CB Talib, Arrington, Cole, Martin
    S Chung, Allen, Barrett
    ==================
    Personally, I would allocate $2M to four low-level free agents (a million a year folks like Cole). That would leave twelve million a year for mid and top level free agents.
  2. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You don't even need 2mill for 4 fringe guys, because they will replace someone else in the top 51.
  3. DocHoliday

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    To me Fells is no more than Algae Crumpler. One year depth rental with little to offer outside the blocking game.

    Best to get someone with more upside
  4. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Its a reserve TE who is inactive often. You just grab guys and let them compete in camp. Not an area to spend.
  5. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Theoretically....

    QB - Set
    RB - Set, or need 1 backup/situational guy
    TE - Set
    WR - screwed
    OL - 2 Needed, 1 may need to be a starter

    DL - Set
    LB - Set
    Db - 2-3 CBs needed, S needed


    I'm not sure how many players you think the team needs, but you seem to be plugging in a lot more holes that I'm seeing on the roster.
  6. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    After what I saw most of the season and again in the AFCCG I don't know how we can consider DL 'set'. If you are saying we can field a unit, OK, but if you mean a quality one that can get reasonable pressure on the QB, we are either putting a lot of faith in Armstead and still lacking a starter, or we are lacking 2.
  7. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    My analysis is the same as yours. Good job. :) To me this is a lot of players, even without adding a defensive lineman or coverage linebacker, who so many want. However, I think that you rightly conclude that those positions are not free agency needs.
    =======
    My summary your stated needs.
    WR - need 3
    OL - need 2
    RB - might need a backup or situational player
    CB - need 3 (at least for camp)
    S - need one (could be a draftee)

    The NUMBER of free agency real needs are small. However, the positional needs are severe. We could lose three of the top free agents in the league in Welker, Talib and Vollmer. And we could lose backups from the same units in Edelman, Arrington and Thomas. And their backups in Branch and Cole.
    ===========================
    Personally, I think that Edelman and Woodhead will be relatively easy re-signs. If we also re-sign Thomas and Arrington, then we will be even more laser focused in free agency.

  8. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We have our starting TE's. We have our backup (Ballard). We can use a blocking TE. Fells is under contract and will likely lose a camp competition to someone who will cost less than his net one million. Hooman is a possibility to compete for the blocking TE position.

    Andy would like us to get a couple of jAG's and let them fight it out for this inactive position. After all, our TE's get injured so rarely. ??

  9. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Would you use serious free agency money on the DL instead of on corners, wide receivers and offensive linemen?

    I suggest that we will draft a DL or two.

  10. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Key point:

    The only part of the rookie cap that isn't already part of the existing salary cap hit is the signing bonus prorations for rookies in the first four rounds or so. Everything else replaces money that's already there.

    In other words, there's only about $1 million in "unaccounted-for" money for rookies.
  11. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks for the re-statement/clarification. I'd gotten the impression that you were looking for significantly more replacements than I was. I agree with your take on this. The number is minor, but the import is major.
  12. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If Fells were Algae Crumpler, I wouldn't consider cutting him. We'd be all set.

  13. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We need to improve the DL and particularly the pass rush.
    I would put 3 needs equally high: WR (Welker) DB (I'm good with either a very corner or very good safety) and DL that can rush the passer.

    I don't believe the right thing to do is ignore the DL because we have medicore guys.

    The pass rush is just as bad as the coverage.
  14. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Pats D-line was 15th in the league in sacks with 37 and 6th in the league vs. the run (3.9ypc). That's a pretty damn good D-line considering our best pass rusher was an injured rookie.

    DE: Jones, Ninkovich, Francis
    DT: Wilfork, Deaderick, Love
    DT/DE: Armstead

    Camp competition: Cunningham, Bequette, Bernard, Pryor.

    Jones was drafted to be that 12-16 sack All-Pro. There are only a few secondary pass rushers that got more than 8 sacks as Ninkovich did. I'm just not seeing the room.

    The Ravens OL is elite, stonewalling Justin and Aldon Smith. Without Jones, its amazing we even got one sack on that unit.
  15. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    7 of the 37 sacks were in the Miami game. 15th in the league doesnt get me excited.
    Allowing 3 straight TD drives totalling 197yards while only forcing 1 3rd down in the AFCCG doesnt reek of 'pretty damn good' to me.
    We had the #1 offense in the NFL by almost every measure and people want to rip it apart, and you are saying leave the DL alone because we were average in sacks? You can't think we were average in pressure or that the pass rush wasn't an epic fail in the AFCCG, can you?


    Ninkovich is mediocre at best. We have almost zero inside pass rush at all.
  16. MrNathanDrake

    MrNathanDrake Rookie

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    Edelman and Talib would be my priorities in FA.

    Edelman is a younger, more explosive Welker. He isn't as nearly as durable, but he'll be way cheaper to keep.
    Talib is key to our secondary. If we don't re-sign him, get ready for another Rookie and some UDFA's like Arrington getting roasted in our secondary. Maybe some more JAGs like Shawn Springs a couple years ago.
  17. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The thing about DL/LB questions is that we don't know if they're going to stay with the 4-3/modified 4-3, or return to a more normal use of the 3-4. If they go back to the 3-4, for example, the DT position will be set with Wilfork and Love, and the questions will be about the DEs. If they stay with more 4-3 concepts, they'll probably look for a DT for the rotation (especially for passing downs) and, probably, also a DE to rotate in for Ninkovich on running downs. Those should be lower priority targets, IMO, partly because of the signings we've already seen and partly because improvement from Hightower and Jones should help shore things up.

    Personally, I see them more as wants than needs for this year. I'm looking for the team to focus on the lines next year.
  18. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    By that yardstick we can't win big games with any of the 52 players on our roster not named Tom Brady.(or Wilfork one time)
    Interesting that you chose the guy who has been the next best player on the team to attach the blame to.

    He is a good piece to have, but replacable if too expensive.
  19. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In four playoff seasons with the Patriots, Welker's only played in a single 'one-and-done' season, and that was the 2010 game where Brady threw an unpressured INT to a back and Crumpler dropped an easy TD pass, so the team can clearly win "the big games" with him.

    While it's true that Welker's had a couple of important drops, so have other receivers. Welker is averaging better than 7 receptions per game in the playoffs, which equates to 123 catches over the course of 16 games. He's also rung up 686 yards in those 9 games, which would be a 1220 yard season.

    Welker's not the problem.
  20. patsinthesnow

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    Cherry picking is stupid. If Jones is healthy the whole year we have 42 sacks and the team is top 10.

    I think without Jones we did all we could. That's like the Giants line without JPP, game over.

    We just disagree on Ninkovich. I see him as a 10 sack guy next year whos decent-good vs. the run.

    I agree with this. I'd love Star Loutelei or Henry Melton to boost the interior pass rush, but its simply not happening. Furthermore, I don't think we can afford to draft a DL in round one or 2, we gotta live with what we got. The FA cap has to go towards WR and CB too.
  21. DaBruinz

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    The Pats will have to look for players who can make special teams contributions. Players like Arrington, Cole, Koutivedes, and White made their names on the Special Teams Units.
  22. supafly

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    I tend to agree with you regarding Daniel Fells. There will obviously be several other players who clear more cap room too, so that will be an ungoing process of give and take, just as it always is.

    It's this reason, and the potential extensions of Brady and maybe even Wilfork, that make this whole "projected" cap amount less relevant in my opinion.

    Will they be major players in free agency? No, but they rarely, if ever are. They should however, have an opportunity at signing some of their own and shoring up other positions that need attention, just as they always do.

    At the end of it, they are likely in just as good of shape if not better, than the surrounding teams who currently have positive cap numbers that climb arround 18-19 million.

    And the rookies won't be signed until the summer, so I don't think we need to worry as much about them right at the moment, although of course it should be kept in mind.

    I'm not saying that I'm not very interested in the current cap standings, but when you are anywhere over 10 million or so, things are probably pretty much the same as any other year. After all, they plan it that way.
  23. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If you aren't on the field making catches, then you aren't helping the team and you are forcing them to spend more money on the position than needed. I'm an Edelman supporter, yet even I know he's not a "more explosive" Wes Welker. Edelman is a guy who is slightly faster, but not as quick. He has excellent field vision and that comes from his time as a QB.

    The Pats don't need to bring in JAGs. What they need to do is bring in some LEADERS who are in their last years.. Which is what they did in 2001 when they brought in Bobby Hamilton and Brian Cox. Adrian Wilson would be a nice addition. Him and McCourty with Tavon Wilson and a rookie safety backing them up would be an excellent situation. Wilson would probably come at a cheaper price than Ed Reed.

    Talib isn't the "KEY" to our secondary. A competent press coverage CB who can line up opposite Dennard is the key to our secondary. Whether that be Dowling (finally), Talib, or someone else, that's what's needed.

    A coverage LB like Danell Ellerbe would be nice. Taking him from the Ravens would be huge. He is a guy who I'd feel comfortable putting on the field instead of Spikes full-time. I think it would allow the Pats to go back to the 3-4 with moving Hightower to an OLB position. That is, of course, unless they can transform Hightower into a better coverage LB..
  24. Mike the Brit

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  25. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    :)

    My mis-spelling of player names is infamous. In this case, I copied the spelling from the post I was responding to.

  26. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It is not the total cap number that is the primary issue. It is having 3 MAJOR position needs (before considering an potential upgrades), needing a major and minor re-signing or replacement at each position. Welker, Vollmer and Talib are key players, all among the top free agents available (all in Rotoworld's top 20).

    We'll see where we are in a month. I expect several re-signings before free agency starts. It was quiet this past week, as folks were off playing golf.

  27. Mike the Brit

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    Sorry -- no put-down intended. I just have a VERY childish sense of humour ...
  28. AndyJohnson

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    Its not cherry picking and nothing like making up what would have happened if a guy were healthy.
    You brought up sack totals and I pointed out that while they were tremendous in that game they totalled on 30 in the other 15 and were awful in the AFCCG.
    Is the point to be really good against a team that plays like crap, or be consistently good? If we had 20 sacks vs the Dolphins it wouldn't change what happened in the other 15 games, or the AFCCG.
    Lets not forget that this is a team who lost at home to Arizona, SF and Baltinmore and was one play away from losing at home to the Jets and Bills, and one of the major reasons was the absence of any kind of pass rush. Dominating the Dolphins doesn't make me feel better about those FIVE home losses/close wins vs bad teams.

    We did....nothing. If one player being out means we have zero pass rush, that means we need more pass rushers.

    He has never had 10 sacks. He is one of the major reasons we lack a consistent pass rush. Getting a sack every other game on average and very little pressure otherwise is not a good thing.

    Then we will continue to get eaten alive by the pass. How can that just be acceptable?
    I sat and watch a totally impotent pass rush send the Ravens to the SB allowing 3 consecutive TD drives, basically without any resistance. They faced 1 3rd down on the 3 drives COMBINED. You could have the greatest secondary in the world, but if you can get close to the QB, you are done. I have rarely seen football games where the pass rush was less effective than ours in that game. How can we not afford to fix that?
  29. DocHoliday

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    Good post. A hidden benefit of getting excellent pass rush is better field position on punts and more turnovers, as well as higher TOP.

    Help the defense help the offense get more shots at scoring.
  30. patsinthesnow

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    Propose a solution then. Spend 6-7 million on a DE/DT, use a first round pick again on DL?
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