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Four Ways To Prioritize Draft Needs


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mgteich

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OPTION ONE - Draft for the future, plus address one serious need.
We draft for the future. Therefore we need to looking at the 2015 needs at OL, RB and S). The one serious need would be at TE. We always need depth; this year at DE and LB.

OPTION TWO - Look for difference makers to upgrade the 2014 and 2015 roster. This might have us looking at any position. Certainly pass-rusher and WR would be strong considerations.

OPTION THREE - Look for where we would be most vulnerable with one injury.
This seems defensive, but it isn't. Lack of depth at TE, LB, DE, S and even RB is serious.

OPTION FOUR - Look for the best value when we pick, ignoring need, other than to make close decisions.
======================
I think that Belichick goes into each draft with a team that is ready to play with a couple of addition of 2-3 free agent additions after the draft (this year at LB, DE and RB). Of course, depending on who we draft, these signing may not be necessary. He often target one position that he will fill in the draft. I think that this year he wants a TE.

To me, the open question is at LB. Perhaps, Belichick sees what many here see. We MUST add a top linebacker. presumably Shazier or Mosely.
==============
Many see a defensive draft, adding early picks at LB, DE, DT and SS. I just don't see this happening. I HOPE that we get one stud front seven defender. After that we need to focus on TE, OG, OC, RB and QB (some even want a WR).

IMHO, the defense has been improving each year. The secondary is solidified. We need one more player to solidify the front seven. With Mayo back (and at least one of the DT's), we should see significant improvement.

On the offense, there are 2014 and 2015 needs at every position.
 
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Well, in all honestly, i don't think doing one way excludes another. It's very possible to adress something right now and it being a pillar for years to come.

I like to think this way: I avaliate talent for this year(Short Term), 3 years further(Mid Term), 5 years further(Long Term) ahead in time.

When i look to this roster i don't see a good DL emerging within the roster for the next 5 years, except for Jones (Armstead and the others need to show more, IMO), moreover, in 3 years, our best DL-Men, Wilfork and Kelly, might be retired, PLUS, this year, we don't have a good 3rd DE.

OL - Here, we have 2 top players that will be in top half of talent in the next 5 years (if nothing goes south), in Solder and Vollmer. Plus, Cannon is showing to be a capable replecement, and is already on roster, and there's Mankins, which is very likely to be active in 3 to 5 years. The rest are upgradable, but that's already 4 out of +-8 players.

TE - That's tricky, because Gronk is a player to build a franchise on, but he needs to be playing. So let's give him a 3 year certainty. No depth, however.

S - McCourty is expected to be a leader here for years to come. Harmon showed flashes of potential, in my view he would be a ok starter (à lá Gregory) and good sub for next 3 to 5 years. Little Depth.

RB - Given the market and the trend of this position becoming less and less dependable, i wouldn't worry too much. We have 2 good RB(Ridley and Vareen), one ok(Bolden), this year and at least 2 of them will remain untill 5 years.

QB - Brady will be on the roster for next 3 years. And i would guess the next 5. So there's that, no urgency to draft that now, just a nice back up

So, grading all that, what do we see? DE has the least amount of Short Term and Long Term players, therefore, is the #1 need. After that, we have a close race between OL and TE, given a marginal lead to the former. Next, i'd put S and then QB. Not really worried about RB
 
There are some wild cards to consider in terms of how to approach the draft –

- Is Michael Buchanan capable of being the #3 DE and consistently playing at the level he displayed at times in the preseason and early last season? If he is, the need to draft a pass rusher in the top 100 is not nearly as great.
- Is Armond Armstead capable of staying healthy, and if so what type of player can he be. If he is the player, many expected him to be for us the need to draft a 3tech DT is not as great.
- What can Jake Bequette, Steve Beauharnais, Braxton Cave, and Chris Barker contribute to this team, all of these players were considered promising prospects but none of them saw the field, will that change in 2014.
- Can DJ Williams or Mark Harrison contribute anything as the Flex-TE? Both players were sought after talents entering the NFL, Williams bounced around never really getting an opportunity and Harrison was on reserve all last season.
- Can Marcus Cannon play RG at a high level? If so he is young and we could lock him up and have a starter for many years.
- What type of leap can we expect from Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Kenbrell Thompkins, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon, and Jamie Collins?
OPTION ONE - Draft for the future, plus address one serious need.
We draft for the future. Therefore we need to looking at the 2015 needs at OL, RB and S). The one serious need would be at TE. We always need depth; this year at DE and LB.

OPTION TWO - Look for difference makers to upgrade the 2014 and 2015 roster. This might have us looking at any position. Certainly pass-rusher and WR would be strong considerations.

OPTION THREE - Look for where we would be most vulnerable with one injury.
This seems defensive, but it isn't. Lack of depth at TE, LB, DE, S and even RB is serious.

OPTION FOUR - Look for the best value when we pick, ignoring need, other than to make close decisions.
======================
I think that Belichick goes into each draft with a team that is ready to play with a couple of addition of 2-3 free agent additions after the draft (this year at LB, DE and RB). Of course, depending on who we draft, these signing may not be necessary. He often target one position that he will fill in the draft. I think that this year he wants a TE.

To me, the open question is at LB. Perhaps, Belichick sees what many here see. We MUST add a top linebacker. presumably Shazier or Mosely.
==============
Many see a defensive draft, adding early picks at LB, DE, DT and SS. I just don't see this happening. I HOPE that we get one stud front seven defender. After that we need to focus on TE, OG, OC, RB and QB (some even want a WR).

IMHO, the defense has been improving each year. The secondary is solidified. We need one more player to solidify the front seven. With Mayo back (and at least one of the DT's), we should see significant improvement.

On the offense, there are 2014 and 2015 needs at every position.
 
I agree that Belichick's evaluation of the young players that we have will help determine perceived need and draft picks.

I would add the perceived likelihood to re-sign players as a factor: McCourty, Cannon, Vereen, and Ridley.

Finally, I would add the health concerns (if any) with players returning from injury: Wilfork, Kelly, Mayo, Gronkowski, and Dobson.

There are some wild cards to consider in terms of how to approach the draft –

- Is Michael Buchanan capable of being the #3 DE and consistently playing at the level he displayed at times in the preseason and early last season? If he is, the need to draft a pass rusher in the top 100 is not nearly as great.
- Is Armond Armstead capable of staying healthy, and if so what type of player can he be. If he is the player, many expected him to be for us the need to draft a 3tech DT is not as great.
- What can Jake Bequette, Steve Beauharnais, Braxton Cave, and Chris Barker contribute to this team, all of these players were considered promising prospects but none of them saw the field, will that change in 2014.
- Can DJ Williams or Mark Harrison contribute anything as the Flex-TE? Both players were sought after talents entering the NFL, Williams bounced around never really getting an opportunity and Harrison was on reserve all last season.
- Can Marcus Cannon play RG at a high level? If so he is young and we could lock him up and have a starter for many years.
- What type of leap can we expect from Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Kenbrell Thompkins, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon, and Jamie Collins?
 
I agree that Belichick's evaluation of the young players that we have will help determine perceived need and draft picks.

I would add the perceived likelihood to re-sign players as a factor: McCourty, Cannon, Vereen, and Ridley.

Finally, I would add the health concerns (if any) with players returning from injury: Wilfork, Kelly, Mayo, Gronkowski, and Dobson.
I agree completely with what you have said in your post, I will expand on a few points below.

- Personally, I really think that the replacement for Vince Wilfork needs to be drafted this year and have 1-2 years behind Wilfork. That position is so significant to our scheme that when they removed Wilfork last year we went to a 1-gap 4-3, then a 2-gap 3-4, until they finally had enough with Siliga to move back to the hybrid front. I do not think we need to draft Nix however, I think that we can find a player later in the draft like Daquan Jones, Justin Ellis, or Zach Kerr capable of filling that role long term, my preference would be Justin Ellis who I think will be a very good pro.
- Gronkowski is an interesting player, he is a player we all love and is a top weapon in the NFL when healthy, but he has missed a lot of time in the past two seasons. If he was to miss significant time again in the 2014 and 2015 seasons I think his option being picked up for 2016 and beyond would be an interesting storyline.
- I would not resign Vereen or Ridley prior to the season or during the season, both carry red flags that need to be proven are resolved before committing any substantial money to them.
 
To me, the open question is at LB. Perhaps, Belichick sees what many here see. We MUST add a top linebacker. presumably Shazier or Mosely.

This is my thinking on the LB situation, 60% of the time the team will have just 2 LBs on the field so that rotation consists of Mayo, Hightower, and Collins. To use a top 30 pick on Shazier or Mosley would be wasteful in my opinion unless you are expecting a significant injury to one of the top 3 players. There are LBs such as Telvin Smith, Jordan Tripp, Christian Kirksey, and Christian Jones who are very good players and would be an improvement over Dane Fletcher in my opinion, I would draft one of them in the third or fourth round. Some other LBs are Yawin Smallwood and Kevin Pierre-Louis who could be available in the fifth or later.
 
1) We are replacing Spikes AND Fletcher.

2) I agree that there will be players in the later rounds that will be able to be developed into backups.

3) The issue is indeed the possibility of a significant injury. Last year, two of the starters went down. TOP rookie Collins and special team Fletcher stepped up. Some would be fine with a TOP rookie and Beauharnais as the backups. Some would even prefer a free agent to Beuaharnais. In any case, we usually carry SIX linebackers.

3 STARTERS
1 BACKUP - We should be comfortable with this player getting lots and lots of reps, like Collins in 2013.
1 STer and emergency LB - who could have to start with two injuries.
1 STer who we don't want to see the field except in garbage time - 1 (we still have White).

We have a similar situation at DE. As long as the starter are healthy, we are reasonably fine.

Some folks would not use top 100 draft resources on a DE or on a LB. After all, why spend such capital on a
backup? Others strongly disagree, suggesting that rotational players often get lots of reps.

BOTTOM LINE
Perhaps Beauharnais is indeed the 2014 replacement for Fletcher.
Personally, I am not happy with Beauharnais to have all the reps should one of the starters gets injured.
I understand that a 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders could provide a solution for 2015 backup reps.

This is my thinking on the LB situation, 60% of the time the team will have just 2 LBs on the field so that rotation consists of Mayo, Hightower, and Collins. To use a top 30 pick on Shazier or Mosley would be wasteful in my opinion unless you are expecting a significant injury to one of the top 3 players. There are LBs such as Telvin Smith, Jordan Tripp, Christian Kirksey, and Christian Jones who are very good players and would be an improvement over Dane Fletcher in my opinion, I would draft one of them in the third or fourth round. Some other LBs are Yawin Smallwood and Kevin Pierre-Louis who could be available in the fifth or later.
 
1) We are replacing Spikes AND Fletcher.

2) I agree that there will be players in the later rounds that will be able to be developed into backups.

3) The issue is indeed the possibility of a significant injury. Last year, two of the starters went down. TOP rookie Collins and special team Fletcher stepped up. Some would be fine with a TOP rookie and Beauharnais as the backups. Some would even prefer a free agent to Beuaharnais. In any case, we usually carry SIX linebackers.

3 STARTERS
1 BACKUP - We should be comfortable with this player getting lots and lots of reps, like Collins in 2013.
1 STer and emergency LB - who could have to start with two injuries.
1 STer who we don't want to see the field except in garbage time - 1 (we still have White).

We have a similar situation at DE. As long as the starter are healthy, we are reasonably fine.

Some folks would not use top 100 draft resources on a DE or on a LB. After all, why spend such capital on a
backup? Others strongly disagree, suggesting that rotational players often get lots of reps.

BOTTOM LINE
Perhaps Beauharnais is indeed the 2014 replacement for Fletcher.
Personally, I am not happy with Beauharnais to have all the reps should one of the starters gets injured.
I understand that a 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders could provide a solution for 2015 backup reps.

Essentially Collins replaces Spikes as the starter, so that leaves us needing to replace LB #4 and #5, I think the hope is that Beauharnais can be LB #5 so that means we would be looking to draft LB #4. In my opinion Tripp, Smith, or Kirksey would be upgrades over Fletcher.

Also, keep in mind if they draft a DE early that will free Ninkovich up to play the SAM in a base alignment, or they could even use Armstead as the LDE and Ninkovich as the SAM in a 4-3 under.

I am in agreement that we need to draft a LB I just feel we do not have to do it at #29 which is where we would have to take Shazier or Mosley.
  1. Mayo
  2. Hightower
  3. Collins
  4. TBD
  5. Beauharnais
  6. White/Davis
 
Essentially Collins replaces Spikes as the starter, so that leaves us needing to replace LB #4 and #5, I think the hope is that Beauharnais can be LB #5 so that means we would be looking to draft LB #4. In my opinion Tripp, Smith, or Kirksey would be upgrades over Fletcher.

Also, keep in mind if they draft a DE early that will free Ninkovich up to play the SAM in a base alignment, or they could even use Armstead as the LDE and Ninkovich as the SAM in a 4-3 under.

I am in agreement that we need to draft a LB I just feel we do not have to do it at #29 which is where we would have to take Shazier or Mosley.
  1. Mayo
  2. Hightower
  3. Collins
  4. TBD
  5. Beauharnais
  6. White/Davis

My only disagreement would be over the question of whether they would use Shazier as a hybrid and give him reps at safety. That would enable them to play with two linebackers whilst effectively having three on the field which allows them to get more creative, particularly in terms of blitzes.
 
My only disagreement would be over the question of whether they would use Shazier as a hybrid and give him reps at safety. That would enable them to play with two linebackers whilst effectively having three on the field which allows them to get more creative, particularly in terms of blitzes.
If Belichick sees Shazier as a hybrid, he would be more valuable to us, and would move up in priority (grade) as we decide on our pick at 29 or trading up a bit. If other GM's take this view, Shazier will be gone by Pick 20 or so.
 
If Belichick sees Shazier as a hybrid, he would be more valuable to us, and would move up in priority (grade) as we decide on our pick at 29 or trading up a bit. If other GM's take this view, Shazier will be gone by Pick 20 or so.

Absolutely. I think it's the only conceivable way we take a LB before the 4th round, or at least in rounds one or two.
 
There is one bonus more by takeing Shazier at #29 ( Or Hageman/Tuitt ). Thats the Age of the front 7. All Lbs + Jones x2 + Armstead would have 7-8 years left or something? That would be HUGE. They would miss a new "NT" or something, but beside that, they could be set to 2021-2022 or something o_O
 
My only disagreement would be over the question of whether they would use Shazier as a hybrid and give him reps at safety. That would enable them to play with two linebackers whilst effectively having three on the field which allows them to get more creative, particularly in terms of blitzes.
Good point Manx I had not thought of that. Do you think he could do that with Telvin Smith or Kevin Pierre-Louis?
 
There is one bonus more by takeing Shazier at #29 ( Or Hageman/Tuitt ). Thats the Age of the front 7. All Lbs + Jones x2 + Armstead would have 7-8 years left or something? That would be HUGE. They would miss a new "NT" or something, but beside that, they could be set to 2021-2022 or something o_O
Pick up a player like Justin Ellis in the third or fourth round and you have the NT of the future as well.
 
OPTION ONE - Draft for the future, plus address one serious need.
We draft for the future. Therefore we need to looking at the 2015 needs at OL, RB and S). The one serious need would be at TE. We always need depth; this year at DE and LB.

OPTION TWO - Look for difference makers to upgrade the 2014 and 2015 roster. This might have us looking at any position. Certainly pass-rusher and WR would be strong considerations.

OPTION THREE - Look for where we would be most vulnerable with one injury.
This seems defensive, but it isn't. Lack of depth at TE, LB, DE, S and even RB is serious.

OPTION FOUR - Look for the best value when we pick, ignoring need, other than to make close decisions.
======================
I think that Belichick goes into each draft with a team that is ready to play with a couple of addition of 2-3 free agent additions after the draft (this year at LB, DE and RB). Of course, depending on who we draft, these signing may not be necessary. He often target one position that he will fill in the draft. I think that this year he wants a TE.

To me, the open question is at LB. Perhaps, Belichick sees what many here see. We MUST add a top linebacker. presumably Shazier or Mosely.
==============
Many see a defensive draft, adding early picks at LB, DE, DT and SS. I just don't see this happening. I HOPE that we get one stud front seven defender. After that we need to focus on TE, OG, OC, RB and QB (some even want a WR).

IMHO, the defense has been improving each year. The secondary is solidified. We need one more player to solidify the front seven. With Mayo back (and at least one of the DT's), we should see significant improvement.

On the offense, there are 2014 and 2015 needs at every position.


I think the reason people never expect what BB does is that they try to associate some deeply detailed philosophical approach to everything he does.
The reality, IMO, is that he is just trying to do whats best for his football team with every decision he maakes.

He will take into account all of the 'philosophies' you mentioned above and much more.
Then when its time to pick he will take the guy that he thinks helps the team the most ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
Need vs BPA is way to basic, as is now vs future. It just never lines up that simply, and each decision is complex and must be viewed through all criteria.
He does everything he can to make his team the best he thinks he can before then picks the guys who he feel give him the best value, now, in the future, compared to need, compared to health at the position, compared to fit in the scheme, compared to importance in the scheme, factoring in off the field issues, etc, etc.

Otherwise I'm not sure why you feel we MUST add a TOP LB when the starting positions are all set in stone. I don't think a top flight player as a backup is ever a must.
 
Good point Manx I had not thought of that. Do you think he could do that with Telvin Smith or Kevin Pierre-Louis?
They would certainly fit although I'd have liked to see better athleticism from Smith.

We showed interest in two linebackers this off-season; Dekoda Watson and Wesley Woodyard. Check out their athletic numbers:

Dekoda Watson:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=66904&draftyear=2010&genpos=OLB

Wesley Woodyard:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=33152&draftyear=2008&genpos=OLB

What stands out is that both are very fast for the position and both are more safety rather than linebacker size. It's why I think Shazier, Smith or KPL or maybe Dion Bailey are such good possibilities. And as both Woodyard and Watson are in the 220s, I don't think it rules out an athletic safety like Buchannon. The question is, how much is BB willing to invest in that position?
 
They would certainly fit although I'd have liked to see better athleticism from Smith.

We showed interest in two linebackers this off-season; Dekoda Watson and Wesley Woodyard. Check out their athletic numbers:

Dekoda Watson:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=66904&draftyear=2010&genpos=OLB

Wesley Woodyard:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=33152&draftyear=2008&genpos=OLB

What stands out is that both are very fast for the position and both are more safety rather than linebacker size. It's why I think Shazier, Smith or KPL or maybe Dion Bailey are such good possibilities. And as both Woodyard and Watson are in the 220s, I don't think it rules out an athletic safety like Buchannon. The question is, how much is BB willing to invest in that position?

Where do you think Buchanan will be selected, round 2, or later? CBS has him as the #82 prospect.
I like Buchanan I think he would give us the physical presence we lack in the secondary.
 
Where do you think Buchanan will be selected, round 2, or later? CBS has him as the #82 prospect.
I like Buchanan I think he would give us the physical presence we lack in the secondary.
I wouldn't draft him in the first and I would probably grade him as a third rounder but that athleticism and size probably gets him into the 2nd. I could live with him there.

Just a note, you may want to watch how you're spelling his name to avoid confusion with the same named, but differently spelled, player on our roster.
 
Otherwise I'm not sure why you feel we MUST add a TOP LB when the starting positions are all set in stone. I don't think a top flight player as a backup is ever a must.


I think Lb is a priority and they will address it multiple times in this draft Much as i like both Collins and Hightower Collins is not a proven starter yet and Hightower is really going to have to take his game to the next level. Where they stand right now they are counting heavily upon both and one injury to a starter and they are going to be in trouble on the unit. Even though Shazier is lighter than he likes to take he is a great player and i would have him high up on the list for #29 if he is still there. If they did get him i believe he has the talent to start from day 1 and if Hightower or Collins don't live up to expectations they can deal with it without a drop off. If hightower can't play middle in a 4-3 then mayo can move back inside with Shazier and Collins outside and if Collins doesn't produce as we hope as a starter then Shazier would press him for the job, either way I think they need 4 starting quality LB's

That said i would still take Sefarian-Jenkins at #29 if the draft falls the way it is looking right now. TE is their biggest need to me and Sefarian-Jenkins would give them the two high quality starting Te's this offense needs to function at its highest level (provided he pans out). If he isn't there then I would look to Shazier or Sua-Filo and then the DL. They are all needs and what matters most is filling them with the players who will become the best pro's, how they go about that isn't as important to me as getting the best player's is.

As a caveat, I would take Sefarian-Jenkins but that is based off of my limited knowledge of the players in this draft, and if Belichick doesn't think he is a first round talent then I am not so stuck on him, or any other pick, that i would have a problem with it. With Ebron gone Sefarian-Jenkins is the only other TE I would take in the first, so if both are off the board then i would move on to their best prospect at another position of need-OG/C/LB/DL, but i would also be fine with a DB or WR if they got themselves a playmaker.
 
To me, the open question is at LB. Perhaps, Belichick sees what many here see. We MUST add a top linebacker. presumably Shazier or Mosely.
I've been thinking about the LB position quite a bit lately. At first glance I felt that we needed to draft at LEAST 2 LB's since we only really have 4 on the roster thus far. But now I'm beginning to wonder. The more I think about it, the more I'm coming to the conclusion that defense in this era is more about DB's and DL's. I mean really. How often are there going to be 3 LB's on the field at the same time. The nickel D with its 5 DB's is the new normal, and more often than not its a LB that's going to be the guy coming off. So if we are only going to have 2 LB's on the field most of the time, how many do we actually need on the roster?

Here's an interesting question. What percentage of the defensive snaps were the LB's on the field compared with DL & DB, I would bet that the LB's took a significantly lower percentage of snaps, even when we were in a 3-4 alignment. So in the end the question has to be asked, just how many LB's do we actually need these days on the roster. The answer I would guess would be considerably less than the 9 or 10 we used to have a decade ago.

That's exactly why when I think of adding to the depleted Pats LB roster, I'd avoid CJ Mosely like the plague, but would be OK with Ryan Shazier early. As I've previouslysaid the Shazier hybrid skill set is a precursor of a new as yet unlabeled position that has become necessary by the flag football nature of the current game. Even Shazier is a problem for me, because I'd rather not spend that kind of draft capital on a guy who isn't a 3 down player. I'd rather grab a similar skill set from KPL in the 3rd or 4th rounds. And even though I'd like to draft additional LB's, I'm more interested in a JTripp speed type, than in ILB like Mosely. In fact a JTripp/KPL 4th round would be home run IMO

At any rate, I don't know how valid my opinion is on this, but I think its worth a discussion.


Many see a defensive draft, adding early picks at LB, DE, DT and SS. I just don't see this happening. I HOPE that we get one stud front seven defender. After that we need to focus on TE, OG, OC, RB and QB (some even want a WR).

IMHO, the defense has been improving each year. The secondary is solidified. We need one more player to solidify the front seven. With Mayo back (and at least one of the DT's), we should see significant improvement.

On the offense, there are 2014 and 2015 needs at every position
Not sure I agree with the urgency you place on the offense in this draft. Of course we need to address the TE position, and like many I'd happily use up to a 3rd round pick on a C or interior offensive lineman, but RB?, QB?, or WR? I don't think so.

TE- I think we all would like to draft one of the top 5 TE's that have been discussing for so long

OL- I also think we would all want to draft an upgrade at the C position, but the fact remains that its doubtful that that guy exists in this draft. At least one that would start in 2014. So in this regard, I'm fine with drafting a C in this draft, but only with the idea that he won't start until 2015, and thus wouldn't be worth a pick before the 3rd round.

RB - I know that both Ridley and Vareen are FA's after this season, but so what. Whose to say we won't sign one or both next season. They certainly won't cost much. But RB's are so transferable these days and easily plugged in. Think about it. Blunt and Woodhead were both found on the scrap heap and flourished here. Is it really hard to believe that we couldn't replace both in next year's FA period or the draft if necessary. That being said, a late round RB would be fine with me.

QB- Any draft pick, even a low one would be a waste of time in this draft. All we need now is a camp arm that is good enough to make the PS. (see Jeff Matthews-Cornell) as a possible option that fits the need.

WR - Just too ridiculous to even comment on (and I know you agree ;) )

In the end I feel we aren't far apart on the offensive side of the ball, we just differ on the "urgency".
 
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