Look at our upcoming schedule...
6 of the next 9 games are on the road, including @Indy and @Dallas, who are probably the two best teams outside the Pats right now. @Miami, where we always struggle. @Baltimore and @Cincy, two playoff contenders on Monday night in their house.
And then when we finally come home after that 9 game stretch we get Pittsburgh, who has outscored their opponents by 71 points so far (just a hair behind the Pats margin of +79).
If we come out of that stretch undefeated, I'll be speechless.
It's a brutal schedule. Some of those games, even if we win them, are going to exact a price. The Baltimore game, for example. We could easily win that one, but be really nicked up for the next game. It's going to end up being a great equalizer as the season progresses, but then we have a bit of a break toward the end and a decent tavel schedule. With a 2 game (effectively 2.5 game, in light of the division tie breakers) lead in the division already, we should have some breathing room. While I think that talk of an undefeated season is ridiculous, I do think that talk about a relatively early playoff clinch is not.
Just comparing schedules, and looking at how deep the AFC this year is, the 2 teams that end up with the first round byes are really going to have earned it, but I'd give the Steelers the edge. With our schedule, if you offered me 12-4 right now, with a win over Indy, and no significant injuries going into the playoffs, I'd probably jump all over that right now. Not that I don't think 14-2 is a possibility, but I'd take the bird in the hand right now given our schedule.
Like virtually every game in the NFL between two roughly even teams, some of those games will come down to turnover differential. It's a pretty telling stat. We can't expect to go on the road in Dallas or Baltimore, or even home again Pittsburgh, and overcome a negative turnover differential, no matter how much better we think our team might be. And much as it's fun to game plan, and speculate, and play matchup, and all that, at the end of the day, whether or not a running back gets stripped, or a QB gets hit while he's throwing instead of a second before for a fumble, comes down to luck.