Football Outsiders ranks Maroney #3 RB in NFL thus far

[PonyExpress]

Footballoutsiders.com ranks Maroney #3 in overall production and in success rate per play after 3 games (http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php). The only thing that can stop Laurence is injury. If he can remain durable, his intelligence will mesh with his instincts and he will become amazing. He has to try to avoid unnecessary big hits, like the brutal one he suffered on his last carry vs. Buffalo. He got up a bit staggered and seemed shaken as he left the field. He didn't appear in any post game TV or print interviews, which is unusual. I'm not sure whether he is avoiding the press after what he may have perceived as a negative story about his "dancing" last week, or whether he was injured. I noticed he shook BB's hand after the game crossing the field, so he seemed functional. We know he kept playing last season with significant injury to his ribs and shoulders, maybe even damaging himself further, during the Pats' playoff run. I'm sure he has plenty of respect in the locker room for that, and should have it from the fans.

Once again, my only question with Maroney is durability. The more he plays, the better he'll become.

 

[Flying Fungi]

I don't know dude.

I think he has a long way to go.

------------

I think we could start a #39 watch, guessing which game on the schedule is the date that he breaks a big one. I thought he was going to get it against BUF...

 

[BelichickFan]

They also have Morris 11th which shows how strong the overall running game has been between the RB/OL and defenses respecting the pass.

Of course it's VERY early - but last year Dillon was ranked 20th and Maroney was 32nd.

 

[Oswlek]

Pony, for a guy who loves Maroney so much, you could at least spell his first name right.

I should also say that FO's numbers haven't been adjusted for opponent yet and he will likely come down a little once they do. Probably still be in the top 10 though.

 

[mcsully]

Just a point of conversation here is my two cents...

The facts that they show definitely supports the argument that Maroney is #3.. But as an accountant, I know how numbers can be "adjusted" to make one's point. That being said, I think last Sunday showed me that Maroney was not even the best back on the field. marshawn lynch looked more complete than lawerence.. I loved how Lynch hit the hole or bounced outside but yet on many of Maroney's carries last couple of weeks, he has hestitated and been tackled for no gain.

My personal opinion (as a fan) is Maroney would do better if he followed a fullback. There is no denying Maroney has the tools to explode for a td but his vision is not the best..

Just my opinion..

 

[Oswlek]

Just a point of conversation here is my two cents...

The facts that they show definitely supports the argument that Maroney is #3.. But as an accountant, I know how numbers can be "adjusted" to make one's point. That being said, I think last Sunday showed me that Maroney was not even the best back on the field. marshawn lynch looked more complete than lawerence.. I loved how Lynch hit the hole or bounced outside but yet on many of Maroney's carries last couple of weeks, he has hestitated and been tackled for no gain.

My personal opinion (as a fan) is Maroney would do better if he followed a fullback. There is no denying Maroney has the tools to explode for a td but his vision is not the best..

Just my opinion..

I disagree with this almost completely. Maroney played all of his college years in a zone blocking system and he was excellent against Buffalo.

I was also very impressed with Lynch and Maroney definitely has had bouts of indecision, but this past week was not one of them.

 

[sebman2112]

Footballoutsiders.com ranks Maroney #3 in overall production and in success rate per play after 3 games (http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php). The only thing that can stop Lawrence is injury. If he can remain durable, his intelligence will mesh with his instincts and he will become amazing. He has to try to avoid unnecessary big hits, like the brutal one he suffered on his last carry vs. Buffalo. He got up a bit staggered and seemed shaken as he left the field. He didn't appear in any post game TV or print interviews, which is unusual. I'm not sure whether he is avoiding the press after what he may have perceived as a negative story about his "dancing" last week, or whether he was injured. I noticed he shook BB's hand after the game crossing the field, so he seemed functional.

What I feel certain about with Lawrence is that he is always doing what is best for the team. He may even be running hurt now for all we know, and is trying to preserve himself to stay on the field as long as possible. We know he kept playing last season with significant injury to his ribs and shoulders, maybe even damaging himself further, during the Pats' playoff run. I'm sure he has plenty of respect in the locker room for that, and should have it from the fans.

Once again, my only question with him is durability. The more he plays, the better he'll become.

I'm not sure if he's third best but I really don't think he's all that far off. Think about the fact that he's been sharing carries with Morris and is still on pace to go for 1,344 yards. I'd probably put him at about 5th right now, which is great for a RB in his second year.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

They also have Morris 11th which shows how strong the overall running game has been between the RB/OL and defenses respecting the pass.

Indeed the running game has been very strong. I think the most telling game was the 2nd half of the Chargers game:

- Chargers score quick TD.
- Pats bleed out a long drive for a TD.
- Chargers score another TD.
- Pats fumble kickoff, but defense saves the day.
- Pats bleed out a long drive for a TD.

Just when it looks like the Chargers have found some holes in the Pats D to attempt a comeback, the Pats answer each score with long clock-killing drives, mostly on the ground. The Chargers, who stuffed Chicago the week before, needed to make a defensive stop and simply couldn't thanks to the running game.

The Pats also had a ~10min drive late in the Jets game when the Jets knew the Pats were trying to run out the clock, yet could do nothing to stop it. The Pats did some damage on the ground in the 2nd half vs. Buffalo as well.

In all three games, the passing game has helped the Pats jump out to a big lead and then when the other team knows the Pats are trying to kill clock on the ground, Maroney, Morris and the OL still get the job done.

That's an effective running game.

Regards,
Chris

P.S. Maroney looked like he hadn't mastered the zone blocking scheme in game 1, but came on strong vs. San Diego and continued the nice cutbacks vs. Buffalo. His big game vs. Buffalo is a sign of things to come, IMO.

 

[TeamPats]

Minnesota Runningbacks represent. 2 out of the top 3, do they have any RB prospects in the up and coming draft?

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

He didn't appear in any post game TV or print interviews, which is unusual.

It's funny you say this, because I was at the game and when all of the players left the field, the *only* one who was getting an extended interview was Maroney. I have no idea who was interviewing him. I figured it was CBS, but if you didn't see it on TV then I'm curious who it was.

Regards,
Chris

 

[JackBauer]

I don't know dude.

I think he has a long way to go.

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I think we could start a #39 watch, guessing which game on the schedule is the date that he breaks a big one. I thought he was going to get it against BUF...

Could you elaborate?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

By way of clarification--FO produces two sets of rankings.

The first of these, is PAR, Points Above Replacement*, which indicates the total "extra" value of a player over the course of the season to date. Considering only Pats and Pats' opponent backs, the rankings are:

3. L. Maroney, 11.3 PAR
11. S. Morris, 7.5
18. M. Lynch, 3.5
32. T. Jones, -2.2
35. L. Tomlinson, -4.4

In other words, by having Maroney instead of a waiver-wire back, the Pats have earned an extra ~3.8 PPG; Morris has added ~2.5. Con/perversely, Lady Tom has, on average, cost SD about 1.5 points per game versus a waiver-wire player.

* * *

The other measure is VOA, Value over Average, which indicates a player's extra value per play. Here, the numbers are somewhat different--and, I'd argue, in line with what some posters here have argued:

2. S. Morris, +39.9% VOA
6. L. Maroney, +32.4%
19. M. Lynch, +0.3%
30. T. Jones, -22.1%
33. L. Tomlinson, -31.6%

In other words, on any given play, Morris is likely to get about 40% more value per play, and Maroney about 32%.

*As other posters have noted, these numbers are not defense-adjusted (tougher defense drives the numbers up, weaker D drives it down).

 

[Flying Fungi]

Could you elaborate?

not without a straw man

part one of quoted post was tongue-in-cheek

part two is my true feeling: Maroney is being handled cautiously, and will put up a good 1200~1400 yards this season as the line and the runner become more comfortable. I think he is a complete running back as is, and hope that he can stay healthy.

 

[Oswlek]

By way of clarification--FO produces two sets of rankings.

The first of these, is PAR, Points Above Replacement*, which indicates the total "extra" value of a player over the course of the season to date. Considering only Pats and Pats' opponent backs, the rankings are:

3. L. Maroney, 11.3 PAR
11. S. Morris, 7.5
18. M. Lynch, 3.5
32. T. Jones, -2.2
35. L. Tomlinson, -4.4

In other words, by having Maroney instead of a waiver-wire back, the Pats have earned an extra ~3.8 PPG; Morris has added ~2.5. Con/perversely, Lady Tom has, on average, cost SD about 1.5 points per game versus a waiver-wire player.

* * *

The other measure is VOA, Value over Average, which indicates a player's extra value per play. Here, the numbers are somewhat different--and, I'd argue, in line with what some posters here have argued:

2. S. Morris, +39.9% VOA
6. L. Maroney, +32.4%
19. M. Lynch, +0.3%
30. T. Jones, -22.1%
33. L. Tomlinson, -31.6%

In other words, on any given play, Morris is likely to get about 40% more value per play, and Maroney about 32%.

*As other posters have noted, these numbers are not defense-adjusted (tougher defense drives the numbers up, weaker D drives it down).

Just a minor quibble with your definition of PAR. I know this was a joke:

Lady Tom has, on average, cost SD about 1.5 points per game versus a waiver-wire player

but I wanted to make sure others understood that it was. It does not mean that an average back would have outperformed LdT on SD over the past three games, it means that when SD runs the ball with LdT, they have been worse than the average back in the league. It is a minor distinction, but important, IMHO. By the same token, Lynch looks better than "replacement level" to me, if he was running behind NE's line with NE's passing game instead of Buffalo's.

What is really remarkable is how high NE's backs on on the PAR scale with how few rushes they have. Maroney is tied for 15th and has 10 less rushes than anyone in the top 5 and Morris is all the way down at 34 twentyone rushes below LoMo.

 

[zarakotas5]

Maroney is being handled cautiously, and will put up a good 1200~1400 yards this season as the line and the runner become more comfortable.

I agree with this and also with the poster who brought up the fullback. I would love to see Maroney have the benefit of a fullback here and there, a la "Lady Tom" (nice name...). It seems to me that when Kool Aid gets the the dancing feet, it's usually because he's trying to navigate around one unblocked LB or one DL and he gets caught up in the split seconds trying to find the hole. After the hole, he is a tough task one-on-one. He needs to "think" less and attack more.

I think he may be a little too quick/thoughtful mentally and it works against him. Having a lead block would help drop the "thought" process and simply punch. Putting a TE in motion could help relieve telegraphing the play..

 

[Oswlek]

I agree with this and also with the poster who brought up the fullback. I would love to see Maroney have the benefit of a fullback here and there, a la "Lady Tom" (nice name...). It seems to me that when Kool Aid gets the the dancing feet, it's usually because he's trying to navigate around one unblocked LB or one DL and he gets caught up in the split seconds trying to find the hole. After the hole, he is a tough task one-on-one. He needs to "think" less and attack more.

I think he may be a little too quick/thoughtful mentally and it works against him. Having a lead block would help drop the "thought" process and simply punch. Putting a TE in motion could help relieve telegraphing the play..

Having a lead blocker goes against the whole zone scheme. It won't happen, particularly with how well NE has been running the ball.

Does Maroney have some room for improvement? Of course. We all see his talent as if it is bulging out from under his skin. You knew from his very first carry that he has something special about him. I know that I won't be satisfied until he is refered to as clearly one of the best RBs in the entire league.

But NE has overhauled the entire run blocking scheme to suit Maroney better and now some are calling for them to just go right back? I don't see the value. Frankly, Maroney danced more last year in a power running set than he has this year. He had a few issues against NYJ and started off slowly vs. SD. But was dominant late in the game against SD and he played as well as anyone could expect against Buffalo. There appears to be a pretty clear progression that I see no reason to mess with.

 

[Oswlek]

BTW, contrary to what some of us here seem to believe (and I have to admit that I think Maroney could improve in the "tough" yardage situations) there is an even more impressive stat on that page that no one has mentioned.

Laurence is third in the league with a 64% success rate. Success rate is explained as such:

This number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher VOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower VOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more. Success Rate is further explained here. It is not adjusted for opponent.

This is completely counter to what many here have complained about.

Edit:

Maroney is closer to #1 (69%) than he is to #4 (57%) and he is only 1% less than Sammy Morris.

 

[patsox23]

I don't know dude.

I think he has a long way to go.

He has not shown himself to be a great RB in MOST areas. This is a process. We won't really know how good he is until he stops CONSTANTLY DANCING and retires.

 

[cstjohn17]

He has not shown himself to be a great RB in MOST areas. This is a process. We won't really know how good he is until he stops CONSTANTLY DANCING and retires.

Don't you mean retire and takes up dancing (as in 'with the stars')?

Being a fan I want immediate feedback, I think the Patriots are trying to win games while keeping him on the field at the end of the season.

 

[spacecrime]

I don't know dude.

I think he has a long way to go.

Yeah, let's wait until he runs in the open like Gale Sayers, up the middle like Earl Campbell, learns how to move like Barry Sanders, and breaks tackles like Jim Brown. Then maybe we can say he is okay.