Football Outsiders' Preview

[BelichickFan]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/01/12/ramblings/game-previews/4829/

Here's the intro. I love these guys, actual good stuff and not random crap that you read elsewhere :

"We’ll start this with the same announcement that has started every Patriots playoff preview I’ve written during the four years of Football Outsiders: I’m a Patriots fan. If you want to look for hints of bias in the preview, you are welcome to do so.

However, it is not my personal rooting interest that leads me to say that New England is just as good as San Diego. It’s the numbers. This is not like last year, when the Patriots weren’t even in the DVOA top ten and Patriots fans were slightly deluded, counting on Bill Belichick’s magic beans to hand-deliver them a third straight championship. The 2006 Patriots are one of the league’s elite teams again. This team is not as good as the 2004 team that won the Super Bowl, but it is as good as the 2003 team that won the Super Bowl, and as good as the current Chargers."

LOTS more at the link.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'd disagree with the statement that we have the Jets to thank for helping to turn this season around (i.e. by illustrating a deficiency and prompting us to address it)

I don't think it was until after the Miami game that the OC figured out how to effectively cover up our deficiencies with the lack of a deep game.

Since then they've increased the spread offense and no huddle themes, keeping defenses off balance and keeping the pressure off of Brady.

Since Miami, no defense has really been effective at stopping the offense - though last week the Jets were successful in holding some drives to Field Goals - an issue of concern for me.

So unless the Chargers can do what few teams have since we've made our adjustments, we have every reason to be confident in our offense on Sunday. As always, I remain confident in what our defense - even one lacking Harrison - will do.

You've really got to love the DVOA charts - look at the upswing for the Patriots... look at the downswing for the Chargers.

Now what does all this mean? Not much, but I like being on the upswing at this time of year much better than peaking in the regular season!

 

[BelichickFan]

I'd disagree with the statement that we have the Jets to thank for helping to turn this season around (i.e. by illustrating a deficiency and prompting us to address it)

I don't think it was until after the Miami game that the OC figured out how to effectively cover up our deficiencies with the lack of a deep game.

I'd pretty much agree with you. Although we had an upswing after the Jets' game, we then had the yucky Detroit/Miami back to back games which were two really bad games even though we split them.

 

[shirtsleeve]

I always enjoy their analysis. This is going to be a very good game on Sunday. I just hope the Charger fans here read it and understand that their team is far from being corinated, and they will have their hands full this weekend.

 

[The Dude]

Again like I said the team that executes best wins, but I think everyone is forgetting there are two teams playing in Baltimore that are also contenders for the superbowl.

 

[GameDay]

You've really got to love the DVOA charts - look at the upswing for the Patriots... look at the downswing for the Chargers.

Since you like graph, try this:

http://www.odyssey.net/subscribers/jmcconnell/nflpage.htm
http://www.odyssey.net/subscribers/jmcconnell/nflgrafs.html

Take them (and DVOA) with a grain of salt!

 

[wdkantro2]

Very good preview. I am actually not a huge fan of those guys. One of them was on ESPNEWS once, around midseason when the Colts had just beat us, and the Bears were starting to show their true colors. They go through all these stats and come to the conclusion that the Pats were the 12th best team in the league, Colts were 10th (they were undefeated at this time) and they said the Bears were by far the best. They lost a lot of credibility with me after that.

 

[Pat_Nasty]

Very good preview. I am actually not a huge fan of those guys. One of them was on ESPNEWS once, around midseason when the Colts had just beat us, and the Bears were starting to show their true colors. They go through all these stats and come to the conclusion that the Pats were the 12th best team in the league, Colts were 10th (they were undefeated at this time) and they said the Bears were by far the best. They lost a lot of credibility with me after that.

I don't see why having those teams ranked thusly at that point in the season would damage their credibility.

The Pats weren't playing like a top ten team at that point. We were giving up too many big plays, and our offense still wasn't all on the same page. It wasn't hard to see that these things would be improved upon over the course of the season, but at that point, 12th seems about right to me.

Meanwhile, don't you think FootballOutsiders deserves MORE credibility for being the only NFL website saying "yes, the Colts are undefeated, yes their offense looks great, but their run defense is horrible, their pass rush isn't what it was last year, and they just haven't played as well as their record suggests?"

Finally, while Grossman was starting to show his "true colors," he'd still only had two bad games at that point, and the Bears defense hadn't lost Brown, Harris and Johnson. How good would we look now if we'd lost Wilfork and Seymour as well as Harrison?

 

[JoeSixPat]

Since you like graph, try this:

http://www.odyssey.net/subscribers/jmcconnell/nflpage.htm
http://www.odyssey.net/subscribers/jmcconnell/nflgrafs.html

Take them (and DVOA) with a grain of salt!

I always do... and didn't bother checking how they come to their power rankings, but that graph strikes me as painting an accurate picture... basically suggesting that Baltimore, SD, & the Patriots are basically in a league of their own... that any of these teams has what it takes to go all the way.