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Football Outsiders Preview (to make you feel better)

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by BelichickFan, Jan 20, 2008.

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  1. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2008/01/18/ramblings/game-previews/6039/

    "The Chargers’ blitz is also remarkably predictable."

    "The Chargers ranked seventh in DVOA against number-one receivers, first against number twos, but 30th against "other receivers." The San Diego pass defense dramatically improved at midseason against the starting receivers, but only slightly against "other receivers."


    They have a box that shows the CB and "Cro" is WAY overrated. He ranks 51st in the league in yards allowed per pass - Florence is 72nd. Jammer is good at 18th but Samuel is 2nd in the league.

    "New England’s advantage over the San Diego defense may be bigger on the ground than it is through the air. The Patriots led the league in offensive Adjusted Line Yards, while the Chargers were 29th on defense. Since Week 10, they rank 20th. Also note that it is easier to run to the left against the Chargers than it is to run to the right."

    Note on bolded piece - that's our stronger side to run to behind Mankins and Light. Maroney is averaging 5.8 to the left side vs. 3.6 to the right side. His average to the right sideline is better than the left but that's with less than 15 of each.

    This stuff made me feel better. We should be able to run and the stats show Cromartie as great at picking up the slop of offensive mistakes but being able to be beaten rather easily.

    Will Carroll has some stuff at the top where he seems to doubt the ACL injury of Rivers : "Rivers has been wearing a type of brace that limits lateral instability. It would do almost nothing for an ACL. No, Rivers is just dealing with a loose knee, one that’s just unstable enough that he can feel it when he plants — and on those occasions when it opens up, it’s uncomfortable enough that he can feel the pain in his future".
  2. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Aaron Schotz is a very bright guy, really like the way he breaks things down.. some if it is difficult to digest, but overal some pretty good scales.
  3. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I've been waiting for his preview hoping for some stats on Cromartie. I'd heard he played soft but all you hear from the media is "11 INT". FO has DB stats but I can't find them on the site so I was thrilled that he put them in the preview.
  4. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    It's funny, but all of the people that I know (or have heard about) that have really broke down the matchups in depth, have indicated that this game will get out of hand in a hurry (blowout) for the Patriots.

    It only seems like the pundits and those with a vested interest in selling the game want to make it seem like a "close" game from the start. Don't know if I'm more or less nervious about that.
  5. ALP

    ALP Rookie

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    If the game is close at halftime, that doesn’t mean it will be close at the end. San Diego’s defense ranked second in the first half of games, but 16th in the second half of games.


    hows that tibit from teh article?
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